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Post by evergreenadam on Sept 7, 2020 7:05:54 GMT
Does anyone know when the 2020 electorates for the review will be published?
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 9, 2020 14:04:19 GMT
I may have missed it, but I'm not sure anybody has done a Northern Ireland map yet. Boundary Assistant only has the 2015 figures, but they're probably alright here as most areas have reasonably stable electorates. I worked from something broadly resembling a minimum change approach, but tried where possible to realign constituencies with the new local authority boundaries. I wasn't too aggressive about this, however - you could theoretically have Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon stand alone for 2 seats, but I doubt anybody really wants the Armagh & Banbridge seat that would require. Similarly, three Belfast seats is easy to do, but none of the parties want that so it isn't going to happen.  Foyle (71398) - no change West Tyrone (68206) - gains two wards round Claudy Fermanagh & Omagh (71038) - no change Mid Ulster (66884) - no change Coleraine (69752) - successor to East Londonderry, stretches along the coast as far as Ballycastle so the old name isn't really appropriate North Antrim (67645) - gains the Cushenden area, loses areas east of Ballymena East Antrim (67741) - pulls out of Newtownabbey, gains Ballyclare instead South Antrim (67191) - loses Ballyclare, gains the bulk of Glengormley Belfast North (67007) - the southern boundary becomes the Crumlin Road, it takes in the eastern half of Newtownabbey Belfast West (68825) - extends north to the Crumlin Road Belfast South (71255) - minor alterations, mostly east of Carryduff Belfast East (69406) - gains Holywood North Down (70529) - loses Holywood, gains Ards Peninsula Mid Down (68148) - successor to Strangford, losing the Ards Peninsula but gaining the Downpatrick area Lagan Valley (68821) - comparatively minor changes South Down (67583) - loses Downpatrick, gains Banbridge Newry & Armagh (71959) - loses Tandragee and Loughgall Upper Bann (70181) - loses Banbridge, gains Tandragee and Loughgall There's enough in there for everybody to find something to hate. Putting the entirety of the Shankill into Belfast West would certainly be provocative, even if it's an obvious change to make, but I doubt Sinn Fein would be particularly keen on the changes I made in Newtownabbey. I'm not sure anybody would be happy with Banbridge going into South Down, with the possible exception of SDLP activists with slightly too much faith in unionist tactical voting, and I suspect SF would also be unhappy about Mid Down as there aren't enough votes to make them competitive. However, the lines are relatively clean, except round Newtonards where the ward shapes make it very difficult to avoid splitting the town, and I don't think it particularly puts a thumb on the scales in favour of any one party. I think you've made quite a few unnecessary changes there. East L'derry and Belfast W can stay unchanged. W Tyrone gains the rest of Slievekirk ward (currently split) from Foyle. Uniting a ward that's already part of it is better than adding 2 wards which aren't. E Antrim gains the rest of Torr Head & Rathlin ward (currently split) as well as Ballycastle and Kinbane wards from North Antrim. The result does look like NI's version of Chile, but part of the Glens are already in anyway so it's a more logical direction to go as Ballycastle and the Glens are linked. Belfast North gains Hightown ward from South Antrim. That ward is Belfast overspill anyway and given the precarious balance there, minimum change is the best policy. Taking out the rest of the Shankill/adding Rostulla, Monkstown and Jordanstown isn't going to fly, even though the division of the Greater Shankill is a nonsense. Belfast South gains the rest of Carryduff East (currently split) from Strangford. That avoids splitting Carryduff and frees up space for Strangford expansion. Belfast East gains Holywood, Loughview and Cultra, same as in your plan. N Down gains the whole of the Ards peninsula, same as your plan. Lagan Valley stays unchanged. There's no need to add Donaghcloney. Strangford adds 8 wards around Downpatrick including Ballydugan and Drumaness. (Same as your plan, I think.) Mid Down or East Down name change. South Down goes a little further than in your plan, adding Gilford as well as Loughbrickland and Banbridge. Upper Bann adds Loughgall and Tandragee, same as your plan. My objection to leaving West Belfast 'unchanged' is that with realignment to the new ward boundaries, Shankill ward is now entirely in Belfast West but Woodvale ward isn't. To me those wards just feel too intrinsically linked to put them into separate constituencies, particularly since it creates an incredibly ugly constituency boundary. Maybe if you wanted to keep as much of the Shankill out of Belfast West, you could try putting both Shankill and Woodvale in Belfast North, putting Central into West and make South take both Carryduff East and Moneyreagh? |
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Post by therealriga on Sept 9, 2020 20:20:43 GMT
I think you've made quite a few unnecessary changes there. East L'derry and Belfast W can stay unchanged. W Tyrone gains the rest of Slievekirk ward (currently split) from Foyle. Uniting a ward that's already part of it is better than adding 2 wards which aren't. E Antrim gains the rest of Torr Head & Rathlin ward (currently split) as well as Ballycastle and Kinbane wards from North Antrim. The result does look like NI's version of Chile, but part of the Glens are already in anyway so it's a more logical direction to go as Ballycastle and the Glens are linked. Belfast North gains Hightown ward from South Antrim. That ward is Belfast overspill anyway and given the precarious balance there, minimum change is the best policy. Taking out the rest of the Shankill/adding Rostulla, Monkstown and Jordanstown isn't going to fly, even though the division of the Greater Shankill is a nonsense. Belfast South gains the rest of Carryduff East (currently split) from Strangford. That avoids splitting Carryduff and frees up space for Strangford expansion. Belfast East gains Holywood, Loughview and Cultra, same as in your plan. N Down gains the whole of the Ards peninsula, same as your plan. Lagan Valley stays unchanged. There's no need to add Donaghcloney. Strangford adds 8 wards around Downpatrick including Ballydugan and Drumaness. (Same as your plan, I think.) Mid Down or East Down name change. South Down goes a little further than in your plan, adding Gilford as well as Loughbrickland and Banbridge. Upper Bann adds Loughgall and Tandragee, same as your plan. My objection to leaving West Belfast 'unchanged' is that with realignment to the new ward boundaries, Shankill ward is now entirely in Belfast West but Woodvale ward isn't. To me those wards just feel too intrinsically linked to put them into separate constituencies, particularly since it creates an incredibly ugly constituency boundary. Maybe if you wanted to keep as much of the Shankill out of Belfast West, you could try putting both Shankill and Woodvale in Belfast North, putting Central into West and make South take both Carryduff East and Moneyreagh? If you look over previous boundary commission hearings the DUP were the ones who opposed the unification of the 5 (now 4) wards of the Greater Shankill. There would likely be strong opposition from other parties to any big shake-up. If you ignore all that for a moment and think about what makes sense, then yes, Shankill ward goes into North. Central is probably too much of a South Belfast ward and Sandy Row is tied too much with the rest of the Donegall Road (Blackstaff ward.) Probably better is moving both Finaghy and Musgrave into West. They're both mainly Catholic overspill from middle-class West Belfasters moving there. South would then need Carryduff East, Moneyreagh (a dubious addition) and Merok. From a political point of view, I don't think it survives, given the precarious balance in Belfast constituencies. |
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Post by Cú Chulainn on Sept 17, 2020 5:37:26 GMT
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Post by robert1 on Sept 17, 2020 8:40:24 GMT
It is likely that the March 2nd electorates will be available towards the end of October.
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Post by evergreenadam on Oct 10, 2020 10:45:58 GMT
It is likely that the March 2nd electorates will be available towards the end of October. So we can spend the next lockdown having lots of fun with the new numbers! |
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 10, 2020 12:05:57 GMT
It is likely that the March 2nd electorates will be available towards the end of October. So we can spend the next lockdown having lots of fun with the new numbers! There is still the new wards issue. It looks like less of the London reviews will be formally confirmed by parliament before 1 December now, owing to a plethora of revised recommendations plus coronavirus delays. But there will still be quite a lot of councils with new wards between March and December. |
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Post by evergreenadam on Oct 16, 2020 8:38:12 GMT
So we can spend the next lockdown having lots of fun with the new numbers! There is still the new wards issue. It looks like less of the London reviews will be formally confirmed by parliament before 1 December now, owing to a plethora of revised recommendations plus coronavirus delays. But there will still be quite a lot of councils with new wards between March and December. Five Electoral Change Orders for London Boroughs have just been published in last few days - Barnet, Camden, Enfield, Haringey, Hounslow. What’s the critical date for the rest to be approved by to be used in the Parliamentary boundary review? |
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Post by islington on Oct 27, 2020 10:43:58 GMT
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 27, 2020 11:20:17 GMT
Have you seen Ceredigion's replacement? Cardigan Bay, Llandovery, Amman Valley and Morriston? Let me tell you, if the people of Carmarthenshire were upset about Cenarth being part of Ceredigion, they are going to go mad about that idea! |
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Post by islington on Oct 27, 2020 11:34:58 GMT
I haven't looked in depth but the 4-county Saffron Walden seat is a thing of beauty and I'm also impressed with Hertford-Ware-and-half-of-Harlow.
And I suspect one of their Scottish highland seats exceeds 13,000 sq km.
Still, it was all done by an algorithm so it must be right.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 27, 2020 12:02:29 GMT
I was going to mention the pitchforks that you would get for suggesting bumping up the electorate of Cities of London and Westminster by adding Shoreditch.
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Post by therealriga on Oct 27, 2020 12:41:17 GMT
Have you seen Ceredigion's replacement? Cardigan Bay, Llandovery, Amman Valley and Morriston? Let me tell you, if the people of Carmarthenshire were upset about Cenarth being part of Ceredigion, they are going to go mad about that idea! I double dare them to suggest that name. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2020 12:52:42 GMT
Llandiloes & Ebbw Vale; Tilehurst, Hungerford & Andover; Holsworthy, Tavistock & Dartmouth
I'd love to see how their algorithm would treat Orkney & Shetland an Na h-Eileannan an Iar if it had to
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 27, 2020 13:21:28 GMT
Yes it’s a poorly programmed computer, which is exactly what you would expect from Electoral Calculus. I doubt even they take it seriously.
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 27, 2020 13:39:31 GMT
It reminds me of a similar ERS exercise in 2010 (?) which was hilariously bad.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,295
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Post by maxque on Oct 27, 2020 13:59:09 GMT
Northern Ireland is also quite something with the anti-SF gerrymanderer (and pro SDLP one, which manage to split Derry in two and create two SDLP seats in that area).
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 27, 2020 16:31:49 GMT
They described what their algorithm was told to do. While it would be more or less legal to apply the law in that fashion, it's certainly not a description of the boundary commission's past or likely future m.o.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,903
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Post by YL on Oct 27, 2020 17:00:23 GMT
The computer is currently being destroyed by a pitchfork wielding army from the Wirral.
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Post by kevinlarkin on Oct 27, 2020 17:04:22 GMT
A number of these appear to be contiguous only by boat:
Bebington and Speke
The two constituencies that include parts of Sittingbourne
Poole Harbour
North Ferriby and (most of) Scunthorpe
Saltash and Plymouth North
Helensburgh and Port Glasgow
A boundary drawing algorithm is only likely to come up with sensible plans if each pairing of adjacent wards is given a score based on the strength of links (physical, administrative and community) between the two.
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