Dec 2019 electorates

[andrewp]

Jan 18, 2020 19:05:20 GMT evergreenadam said:

Jan 18, 2020 17:59:55 GMT pepperminttea said:

When I tried a 7 seat Oxfordshire (I don't know whether this will work any more as it was on old electorate numbers) this is what I did:

-Oxford West and Abingdon loses Kidlington and regains Oxford city centre from Oxford East.
-Wantage loses some areas of South Oxfordshire council area (Wallingford, Cholsey) to Henley.
-Henley loses the northern part of its constituency.
-A new seat of Bicester appears created from the eponymous town and environs, Kidlington (from Oxford West and Abingdon) and the northern part of the current Henley constituency.
-The remaining part of Banbury (the current Banbury seat being the biggest population growth area) then stretches south to gain the northern part of the current Witney constituency around the town of Chipping Norton. 

Would it create any new marginals?

It doesn’t sound like it, that sounds like 5 safe Conservative, 1 safe Lib Dem and 1 safe Labour to me.

[mondialito]

Now Boundary Assistant is no more, how are people creating constituency maps?

[bjornhattan]

Jan 18, 2020 19:05:20 GMT evergreenadam said:

Jan 18, 2020 17:59:55 GMT pepperminttea said:

When I tried a 7 seat Oxfordshire (I don't know whether this will work any more as it was on old electorate numbers) this is what I did:

-Oxford West and Abingdon loses Kidlington and regains Oxford city centre from Oxford East.
-Wantage loses some areas of South Oxfordshire council area (Wallingford, Cholsey) to Henley.
-Henley loses the northern part of its constituency.
-A new seat of Bicester appears created from the eponymous town and environs, Kidlington (from Oxford West and Abingdon) and the northern part of the current Henley constituency.
-The remaining part of Banbury (the current Banbury seat being the biggest population growth area) then stretches south to gain the northern part of the current Witney constituency around the town of Chipping Norton. 

Would it create any new marginals?

If Labour are leading by a few points nationwide Banbury might become marginal - Chipping Norton is fairly Labour voting and the current Conservative majority in Banbury comes mainly from the Bicester end of the seat.

[loderingo]

There are a couple of ways to do Oxfordshire - one is to pair Vale and Oxford with a couple of wards from West Ox (see above).
The second is to pair Cherwell and Oxford with a couple of wards from West Ox (see below)

Oxford W and Bicester (71,116) - current Oxford wards from OXWAB + Carfax and Holywell + Kirtlington, Otmoor, Bicester x5, Kidlington x2, Ambrosden
Oxford East (70,295) - the rest of Oxford
Banbury (73,405) - the rest of Cherwell + Stonesfield and Woodstock from West Ox
Abingdon and Didcot (70,750) - Abingdon x5. Marcham, Drayton, Sutton Courtenay from the Vale + Didcot x3, Sandford, Cholsey, Wallingford from South Oxon
Henley (69,951) - The rest of South Oxon
Wantage (71,186) - The rest of the Vale + Alvescot, Bampton and Standlake from West Oxon
Witney (69,692) - The rest of West Oxon

I've done my calculations from Electoral Calculus numbers. In my version the Henley seats gets to stay more or less the same (losing 2 wards), in the version above Oxwab gets to stay more or less the same

[loderingo]

Berkshire divides neatly into an eastern group of 3 boroughs and a western group of 3 boroughs

Windsor and Langley (70,318) - 3 Langley wards and Colnbrook from Slough + Etonx2, Horton, Datchet, 6 Windsor wards, Sunningdale, Sunninghill, Ascot from RBWM
Slough (72,297) - the rest of Slough
Maidenhead (71,123) - the rest of RBWM + Ascot, Binfield, Winkfield from Bracknell Forest
Bracknell (70683) - the rest of Bracknell Forest

Reading West (71,046) - The current seat minus Minster + Basildon and Compton from W Berks
Reading East (69,732) - The rest of Reading (+ Minster - Wokingham borough wards)
Mid Berks (70,004) - Aldermaston, Bucklebury, Burghfield, Mortimer, Sulhamstead from W Berks + Arborfield, Barkham, Finchampstead S, Hawkedon, Hillside, Maiden Erleigh, Shinfield x2 Swallowfield, Winnersh
Wokingham (71,686) - The rest of Wokingham Borough (inc Wokingham, Woodley, Twyford)
Newbury (71,108) - the rest of West Berkshire

The only things I'm not happy about are splitting Finchampstead and putting Compton in a Reading seat but the numbers were really tight to get within the 5% quota

[loderingo]

Bucks is pretty much spot on for 8 seats. The shape of the county makes it awkward around the Wycombe area

Beaconsfield (72,839) - South Bucks district+ The Wooburns, Bourne End, Flackwell heath, Tylers Green
West Buckinghamshire - (73,706) - Hambledon, Chiltern Rise, Bledlow, Greater Hughenden, Lacey Green, Stokenchurch, Icknield, The Risboroughs from Wycombe + Aston Clinton, Grendon Underwood, Haddenham, Long Crendon, Oakley, Quainton, Stewkley, Waddesdon, Wendover and Halton from Aylesbury Vale + Missenden x2 from Chiltern
Chesham and Amersham (75,725) - Chiltern district - 2 wards above + Hazelmere x2 from Wycombe
Wycombe (70,113) - the rest of Wycombe district (Wycombe town and Marlow)
Mk North (75,334) - Newport Pagnell x2, Olney, Broughton, Stantonbury, Campbell park, Bradwell, Wolverton
MK Central (73,010) - Central MK, Danesborough, Loughton, Monkston, Shenley, Stony Stratford, Woughton
MK South and Buckingham (72,759) - Bletchley x 3, Tattenhoe from MK + Great Brickhill, Great Horwood, Luffield Abbey, Tingewick, Buckingham x2, Winslow, Steeple Claydon, Marsh Gibbon from Aylesbury Vale
Aylesbury (72,567) - The rest of Aylesbury Vale (Aylesbury town and the wards to the NE)

[pepperminttea]

Here's my 1st attempt at London using the December 2019 electorates with London gaining 3 seats for a total of 76.

The wards used are the old ones as Electoral Calculus hasn't updated for the new ones yet. I have tried to keep within the 5% quota (69,515-76,831) where possible though I have allowed a maximum of 7.5% deviation (67,686-78,660) where sensible to do so, alternatively you can split wards. 

I tried to minimise crossing of borough boundaries so I organised the boroughs into groups that can hold a whole number of seats:

-Islington, Wandsworth and Sutton can stand alone.
-Group 1: Havering, Barking & Dagenham, Redbridge, Waltham Forest (9 seats)
-Group 2: Newham, Tower Hamlets (5 seats)
-Group 3: Hackney, Haringey, Enfield, Camden (9 seats) 
-Group 4: City of London, Westminster, Kensington & Chelsea (3 seats)
-Group 5: Barnet, Brent (6 seats)
-Group 6: Harrow, Hillingdon (5 seats)
-Group 7: Hammersmith & Fulham, Hounslow, Ealing, Middlesex half of Richmond borough (8 seats)
-Group 8: Surrey half of Richmond borough, Kingston, Merton (4 seats)
-Group 9: Lambeth, Southwark (6 seats)
-Group 10: Lewisham, Greenwich (5 seats)
-Group 11: Croydon, Bromley, Bexley (9 seats)



Very close seats (using Electoral Calculus's figures):
Wimbledon: Lib Dem by 167
Chingford & Woodford: Tory by 329
Beckenham: Labour by 392
Carshalton & Wallington: Tory by 629 (unchanged seat so exact)
Fulham: Tory by 730
Feltham: Labour by 995

[jacoblamsden]

What wards do you have in that Beckenham seat? Surely for Labour to take it, you don't just have to gain the three Penge wards, lose Bromley Common and Keston and Hayes and Coney Hall, but also lose West Wickham and gain some strongly Labour ward in Croydon - Woodside or South Norwood?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I don't like the look of the Golders Green and Kilburn seat, and I think both sides of it would react with pitchforks if that was proposed.

Also are you trying to gerrymander the safest Labour seat in north Westminster and north Kensington or is it just an accident?

[bjornhattan]

I'd be interested to see the composition of your Dagenham and Rainham seat too - I know you wouldn't have to change much to that seat to turn it blue, but I'd have at least expected it to show up in your top marginal list.

[🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️]

Jan 22, 2020 18:12:57 GMT bjornhattan said:

I'd be interested to see the composition of your Dagenham and Rainham seat too - I know you wouldn't have to change much to that seat to turn it blue, but I'd have at least expected it to show up in your top marginal list.

That is a very pleasing part of that map.

[bjornhattan]

Jan 22, 2020 19:07:02 GMT 🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️ said:

Jan 22, 2020 18:12:57 GMT bjornhattan said:

I'd be interested to see the composition of your Dagenham and Rainham seat too - I know you wouldn't have to change much to that seat to turn it blue, but I'd have at least expected it to show up in your top marginal list.

That is a very pleasing part of that map.

The whole eastern edge is pleasing - Erith was much less mentioned than Dagenham and Rainham because it was essentially a safe seat, but the swing we got there was very impressive. The demographics there are very similar on both sides of the river.

It'll be interesting to see how proposed development in the Thames Gateway changes those seats going forward - I believe the plans for house building there are astronomical and so in a few decades there'll be several new seats in that area.

[mondialito]

How does Hayes and Harlington become Tory here? There doesn't seem to be much change in Hillingdon.

[jacoblamsden]

Jan 22, 2020 19:14:37 GMT bjornhattan said:

Jan 22, 2020 19:07:02 GMT 🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️ said:

That is a very pleasing part of that map.

The whole eastern edge is pleasing - Erith was much less mentioned than Dagenham and Rainham because it was essentially a safe seat, but the swing we got there was very impressive. The demographics there are very similar on both sides of the river.

It'll be interesting to see how proposed development in the Thames Gateway changes those seats going forward - I believe the plans for house building there are astronomical and so in a few decades there'll be several new seats in that area.

It would be interesting to know whether the Conservatives managed to make any inroads into the ethnic minority vote in either seat in the election, or whether their strong performance was simply based on mopping up the vast majority of WWC Brexiteers. I'm sure I've read somewhere that the Conservative vote among Black Africans is actually relatively high for an ethnic minority group (and presumably it is better in outer London than inner London) so that may explain at least some of better than expected performance here.

As I've said a couple of times before and as the strong Tory swing in Erith and Thamesmead this time highlights - I'm still convinced that the Conservatives really underperform in Eltham - both locally and nationally. How a ward like Eltham North isn't safe Conservative locally is madness considering its demographics. I know the area very well and still can't explain it. 

[pepperminttea]

Jan 22, 2020 19:23:26 GMT mondialito said:

How does Hayes and Harlington become Tory here? There doesn't seem to be much change in Hillingdon.

That's a mistake sorry was rushing when filling it in  . There's no change to the Hayes & Harlington constituency so the Labour majority is exactly the same as it is now.

Updated the correct map.

[pepperminttea]

Jan 22, 2020 18:12:57 GMT bjornhattan said:

I'd be interested to see the composition of your Dagenham and Rainham seat too - I know you wouldn't have to change much to that seat to turn it blue, but I'd have at least expected it to show up in your top marginal list.

Basically loses Chadwell Heath and Whalebone whilst gaining Alibon from Barking and Hacton from Hornchurch & Upminster. The Tory lead in Hacton is so huge that it leaves the seat with a projected Tory majority of 2,710.

[pepperminttea]

Jan 22, 2020 17:23:51 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I don't like the look of the Golders Green and Kilburn seat, and I think both sides of it would react with pitchforks if that was proposed.

Also are you trying to gerrymander the safest Labour seat in north Westminster and north Kensington or is it just an accident?

Prior to 2010 when there was a cross between Westminster and Kensington & Chelsea the cross was in this area (Regent's Park and Kensington North) and thus I think that it would be best to restore the link there. As for the Westminster side I wanted to restore a Paddington constituency (in this case Paddington & North Kensington) which basically requires Hyde Park to be moved in. Obviously if you wanted to go with minimal change you'd just move Lancaster Gate into Cities of London and Westminster which would be pretty similar politically to this map. 

And yeah that Barnet-Brent seat isn't ideal but it was the best I could come up with. I've chosen to call it Cricklewood (or Cricklewood & Brondesbury) seen as that area is both in Barnet and Brent. Crossing at Hendon for starters splits Hendon itself (as only 2 wards can be moved) but has the knock on effect of forcing what's left of the Hendon constituency to take Totteridge which will leave both itself and what's left of Chipping Barnet below the 5% quota but Finchley above it which I regarded as unacceptable. Crossing further north (Burnt Oak/Colindale) has the same effect but causes Finchley to be split in half as well as forcing a horrible 'Hendon South & Finchley South' which is over even the 7.5% quota anyway.

[pepperminttea]

Jan 22, 2020 19:14:37 GMT bjornhattan said:

Jan 22, 2020 19:07:02 GMT 🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️ said:

That is a very pleasing part of that map.

The whole eastern edge is pleasing - Erith was much less mentioned than Dagenham and Rainham because it was essentially a safe seat, but the swing we got there was very impressive. The demographics there are very similar on both sides of the river.

It'll be interesting to see how proposed development in the Thames Gateway changes those seats going forward - I believe the plans for house building there are astronomical and so in a few decades there'll be several new seats in that area.

The Tory majority in that Erith and Crayford constituency is projected to be over 8,000...

[pepperminttea]

Jan 22, 2020 17:20:10 GMT jacoblamsden said:

What wards do you have in that Beckenham seat? Surely for Labour to take it, you don't just have to gain the three Penge wards, lose Bromley Common and Keston and Hayes and Coney Hall, but also lose West Wickham and gain some strongly Labour ward in Croydon - Woodside or South Norwood?

It's basically: Crystal Palace, Penge & Cator, Clock House, Copers Cope, Kelsey & Eden Park, Shortlands and Bromley Town. Electoral Calculus has massive Labour leads in Crystal Palace and Penge & Cator which combined with a solid lead in Clockhouse and Tory leads of less than 2:1 in the others (besides Shortlands which is a significantly smaller ward than the rest) gives a Labour victory by 392 votes. It's quite possible that Electoral Calculus is wrong and the Tories did a bit better, particularly in the three wards currently in Lewisham West & Penge than they are predicting leading to a narrow Tory win as opposed to a narrow Labour one, but either way the seat would be a very tight marginal.

[jacoblamsden]

Jan 23, 2020 0:29:37 GMT pepperminttea said:

Jan 22, 2020 17:20:10 GMT jacoblamsden said:

What wards do you have in that Beckenham seat? Surely for Labour to take it, you don't just have to gain the three Penge wards, lose Bromley Common and Keston and Hayes and Coney Hall, but also lose West Wickham and gain some strongly Labour ward in Croydon - Woodside or South Norwood?

It's basically: Crystal Palace, Penge & Cator, Clock House, Copers Cope, Kelsey & Eden Park, Shortlands and Bromley Town. Electoral Calculus has massive Labour leads in Crystal Palace and Penge & Cator which combined with a solid lead in Clockhouse and Tory leads of less than 2:1 in the others (besides Shortlands which is a significantly smaller ward than the rest) gives a Labour victory by 392 votes. It's quite possible that Electoral Calculus is wrong and the Tories did a bit better, particularly in the three wards currently in Lewisham West & Penge than they are predicting leading to a narrow Tory win as opposed to a narrow Labour one, but either way the seat would be a very tight marginal.

Thanks for confirming - I don't know if it works with numbers, but it would work much better if you swapped Bromley Town out of the Beckenham seat and replaced it with West Wickham (I think the wards are vaguely similar sizes). West Wickham has always been linked with Beckenham rather than Bromley, and I don't know what you could call the other (effectively Bromley seat) if Bromley Town wasn't in it - maybe bring back Ravensbourne, but then that's confusing as the area known as Ravensbourne (around the station) is in Bromley Town ward and therefore in Beckenham constituency.