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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 26, 2020 10:09:57 GMT
Yeah, I'm morbidly curious about the worse ways. Well, there's splitting Shifnal: View Attachment1 Oswestry 75527 Yes 2 The Wrekin 75477 Yes 3 Shrewsbury and Atcham 75341 Yes 4 Ludlow 75696 Yes 5 Telford 75231 Yes I was hoping for all five seats to extend radially from downtown Shrewsbury to the county line (necessarily also splitting Telford). |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 26, 2020 10:15:59 GMT
Finally managed to complete a Yorkshire & Humber plan (ward splits necessary due to the sheer size of wards in West Yorkshire in particular): Leeds North West (safe Labour) Elmet & Rothwell (safe Conservative) Leeds North East (very safe Labour) Leeds South East (very safe Labour) Morley (marginal Labour) Leeds South West (very safe Labour) Pudsey (semi-marginal Conservative) Ripon (ultra-safe Conservative) Skipton & Richmond (ultra-safe Conservative) Selby & Ainsty (very safe Conservative) Harrogate & Knaresborough (semi-marginal Conservative) Thirsk & Northallerton (ultra-safe Conservative) Malton & Pocklington (ultra-safe Conservative) York Central (safe Labour) York Outer (safe Conservative) Bridlington (very safe Conservative) Scarborough & Whitby (safe Conservative) Beverley (very safe Conservative) Hull West & Haltemprice (marginal Conservative) Goole & Axholme (very safe Conservative) Hull North (safe Labour) Hull South (marginal Labour) Scunthorpe (marginal Conservative) Brigg (very safe Conservative) Grimsby & Cleethorpes (marginal Conservative) Keighley (marginal Conservative) Shipley (marginal Conservative) Bradford East (very safe Labour) Bradford West (very safe Labour) Bradford South (safe Labour) Halifax (marginal Labour) Calder Valley (semi-marginal Conservative) Batley & Spen (semi-marginal Labour) Huddersfield (very safe Labour) Colne Valley (ultra-marginal Conservative) Dewsbury & Ossett (marginal Conservative) Penistone (marginal Labour) Barnsley East (marginal Labour) Barnsley Central (safe Labour) Wakefield & Outwood (semi-marginal Conservative) Pontefract & Castleford (ultra-marginal Labour) Hemsworth & Normanton (marginal Labour) Doncaster North (marginal Conservative) Doncaster Central (marginal Labour) Don Valley (ultra-marginal Labour) Sheffield Hallam (marginal Labour) Sheffield Hillsborough (marginal Labour) Sheffield Central (very safe Labour) Sheffield Brightside (very safe Labour) Sheffield Heeley (very safe Labour) Rotherham West (marginal Labour) Rotherham East (marginal Labour) Rother Valley & Mosborough (marginal Labour) Morley and Penistone must have been Tory in December, probably one of the Rother Valley successors as well. Split wards are ? Presumably Lindley, Horbury & Ossett, South Hunsley(E Yorks), plus one each in Calder Valley, Elmet & Rothwell, Leeds NW, Leeds SE, Sheffield Heeley, Batley & Spen (is this an orphan half-ward in Morley or Bradford South?). If so many wards are going to be split you may as well use them to avoid linking Leeds and Richmondshire. The orphan half-ward is in Morley, yes. The awkward size of the Kirklees wards in relation to the allowable electoral range made other solutions unworkable or undesirable. As for North Yorkshire poking into Leeds, I was unable to avoid this due to the shifts needed in East and North Yorkshire (again due to oversized wards, especially in East Yorkshire which has 3-member rural wards!), especially since every constituency in North Yorkshire except Scarborough & Whitby is over the maximum electorate on 2019 figures. My version of Morley does not include Outwood but does include a safe Labour ward in Leeds (Outwood is more safely Conservative at a parliamentary level). My version of Penistone extends further into Barnsley and does not include Stocksbridge or Ecclesfield, which may be enough to just tip it into the Labour column notionally. A tolerance of 10% or even 7.5% (as per Labour's amendment to the Parliamentary constituencies Bill) would help avoid a lot of these problems! |
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ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,096
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Post by ilerda on Jun 26, 2020 11:25:47 GMT
The Don Valley constituency covered approximately the same area as the old Doncaster rural district prior to the 1983 election. Doncaster had a very large population for a rural district, by the early 1970s it was over 70,000. At that time the old Thorne rural district was in the Goole constituency. Following local government reforms in the early 70s Thorne had to be moved in with the metropolitan borough as Goole was moved into the new Humberside county. It was added to the new Doncaster North seat along with the former urban districts of Adwick le Street and Bentley with effect from the 1983 election. There was also a registration district named Don Valley which was created in the early 19th century. As you say, the name has 'stuck' and many of those in the rural hinterlands to the south of Doncaster would much rather be in a seat called 'Don Valley' than 'Doncaster South'. It would be a great shame to loose the name if there ever were to be an east/west split of the borough. For further historic interest, here's a map from VoB showing the very first iteration of Don Valley as it existed 1918-1950 (therefore not quite the same as the later version described by ilerda and jm above).
Three other things I notice from this map are: - Rother Valley, also in its first iteration here, penetrated quite a long way into south eastern Sheffield.
- Ossett has somehow attached itself as a dangling appendage to the Batley and Morley seat.
- The boundary between Rotherham and Wentworth in the Thorpe Hesley area is an absolute beaut; can anyone with local knowledge cast light on this?
This is a very interesting map - clear to see that the constituencies of 1918 hadn't caught up with the massive changes to local gov (particularly borough) boundaries that occurred. Parts of Sheffield county borough still sitting in Derbyshire constituencies for example. I think the Thorpe Hesley boundary must be to do with the Wentworth estate. If the parishes were drawn based on land ownership then the Rockinghams or Fitzwilliams probably just kept everything they owned and made everything else work around them. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jun 26, 2020 12:06:43 GMT
Well, there's splitting Shifnal: 1 Oswestry 75527 Yes 2 The Wrekin 75477 Yes 3 Shrewsbury and Atcham 75341 Yes 4 Ludlow 75696 Yes 5 Telford 75231 Yes I was hoping for all five seats to extend radially from downtown Shrewsbury to the county line (necessarily also splitting Telford). Sadly, Shrewsbury only borders three rural wards! |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jun 26, 2020 12:11:06 GMT
The Don Valley constituency covered approximately the same area as the old Doncaster rural district prior to the 1983 election. Doncaster had a very large population for a rural district, by the early 1970s it was over 70,000. At that time the old Thorne rural district was in the Goole constituency. Following local government reforms in the early 70s Thorne had to be moved in with the metropolitan borough as Goole was moved into the new Humberside county. It was added to the new Doncaster North seat along with the former urban districts of Adwick le Street and Bentley with effect from the 1983 election. There was also a registration district named Don Valley which was created in the early 19th century. As you say, the name has 'stuck' and many of those in the rural hinterlands to the south of Doncaster would much rather be in a seat called 'Don Valley' than 'Doncaster South'. It would be a great shame to loose the name if there ever were to be an east/west split of the borough. Maybe, but I imagine the outcome (assuming it still works on the March 2020 numbers) will be minimum change, which means aligning everything to the new ward boundaries and then transferring Edlington from Don Valley to Doncaster C: not an elegant or imaginative approach, and one that leaves Conisbrough somewhat isolated from the rest of Don Valley, but there it is.
Assuming this is the final outcome in terms of boundaries, would it resolve the name issue to everyone's satisfaction to retain the names of Doncaster N and Don Valley and call the other seat Doncaster S?
Or better, drop the "Central" from Doncaster and rename Doncaster North to Adwick-le-Street. |
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 26, 2020 14:52:44 GMT
Kirklees is more 'disjointed' than Bradford. There are still the East-West tensions. Back to boundaries...I wouldn't touch the Bradford constituencies assuming they remain within quota. Much much prefer tinkering of boundaries across West Yorkshire given that our entitlement is likely to stay at 22. But that isn't an argument for not splitting Bradford. Anyway, you could do a few more ward splits, resurrect the old 97-2010 boundaries of the Wakefield constituency, and do it that way. But I feel it would make for worse constituencies and involves more ward splits so I don't want to? |
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Post by islington on Jun 26, 2020 15:06:54 GMT
Maybe, but I imagine the outcome (assuming it still works on the March 2020 numbers) will be minimum change, which means aligning everything to the new ward boundaries and then transferring Edlington from Don Valley to Doncaster C: not an elegant or imaginative approach, and one that leaves Conisbrough somewhat isolated from the rest of Don Valley, but there it is.
Assuming this is the final outcome in terms of boundaries, would it resolve the name issue to everyone's satisfaction to retain the names of Doncaster N and Don Valley and call the other seat Doncaster S?
Or better, drop the "Central" from Doncaster and rename Doncaster North to Adwick-le-Street. Or, in a spirit of creative ambiguity, also known as confusing the hell out of everyone, just 'Adwick' on the grounds that Adwick upon Dearne is also in the seat. |
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 26, 2020 15:17:06 GMT
West Yorkshire with only 4 ward splits The four splits: -the polling district encompassing Netherton remains in Colne Valley -the four polling districts on the west side of Garforth go into Leeds West -very roughly, the area transferred out of the old Hyde Park and Woodhouse ward at the last local boundary review, goes into Leeds North East -the three polling districts covering the villages of Hipperholme & Norwood Green go into Halifax Colne Valley - Conservative Huddersfield - Labour Dewsbury - Labour Wakefield South & Kirkburton - Conservative Wakefield North - Conservative Hemsworth - Labour Pontefract & Castleford - Labour Elmet & Rothwell - Conservative Leeds East - Labour Leeds Central - Labour Batley & Morley - Conservative Leeds North East - Labour Leeds West - Labour Pudsey - too close to call Otley - Conservative Keighley - Conservative Shipley - Labour Bradford East - Labour Bradford South & Cleckheaton - Conservative Bradford West - Labour Halifax - Labour Calder Valley - Conservative South Yorkshire with 3 ward splits  The three splits: -the parish of Shafton moves into Barnsley Central -the polling district in the western part of the Birley ward (around White Lane) moves into Sheffield Heeley -the northern most polling district in the Walkley ward (which is basically part of Hillsborough anyway) moves into Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough Goole & Thorne - Conservative Doncaster South - Conservative Doncaster North - Labour Wentworth & Mexborough - Labour Rotherham - Labour Rother Valley - Conservative Sheffield South East - Labour Sheffield Heeley - Labour Sheffield Hallam - Labour Sheffield Central - Labour Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough - Labour Penistone & Stocksbridge - Conservative Barnsley Central - Labour Barnsley East - Labour islington may be interested |
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 26, 2020 15:37:19 GMT
West Yorkshire with only 4 ward splits The four splits: -the polling district encompassing Netherton remains in Colne Valley -the four polling districts on the west side of Garforth go into Leeds West -very roughly, the area transferred out of the old Hyde Park and Woodhouse ward at the last local boundary review, goes into Leeds North East -the three polling districts covering the villages of Hipperholme & Norwood Green go into Halifax Colne Valley - Conservative Huddersfield - Labour Dewsbury - Labour Wakefield South & Kirkburton - Conservative Wakefield North - Conservative Hemsworth - Labour Pontefract & Castleford - Labour Elmet & Rothwell - Conservative Leeds East - Labour Leeds Central - Labour Batley & Morley - Conservative Leeds North East - Labour Leeds West - Labour Pudsey - too close to call Otley - Conservative Keighley - Conservative Shipley - Labour Bradford East - Labour Bradford South & Cleckheaton - Conservative Bradford West - Labour Halifax - Labour Calder Valley - Conservative South Yorkshire with 3 ward splits The three splits: -the parish of Shafton moves into Barnsley Central -the polling district in the western part of the Birley ward (around White Lane) moves into Sheffield Heeley -the northern most polling district in the Walkley ward (which is basically part of Hillsborough anyway) moves into Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough Goole & Thorne - Conservative Doncaster South - Conservative Doncaster North - Labour Wentworth & Mexborough - Labour Rotherham - Labour Rother Valley - Conservative Sheffield South East - Labour Sheffield Heeley - Labour Sheffield Hallam - Labour Sheffield Central - Labour Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough - Labour Penistone & Stocksbridge - Conservative Barnsley Central - Labour Barnsley East - Labour islington may be interested Finally, the rest of Yorkshire with just the one ward split  That being: -the southern parishes of the East Wolds and Coastal ward move into Beverley & Holderness Skipton & Ripon - Conservative Richmond - Conservative Vale of York - Conservative Scarborough & Whitby - Conservative Harrogate & Knaresborough - Conservative Selby & Ainsty - Conservative York East - Labour York West - Labour Bridlington & Malton - Conservative Beverley & Holderness - Conservative Hull East - Labour Hull North - Labour Hull West & Hessle - Conservative Pocklington, Haltemprice & Howden - Conservative North Lincolnshire - Conservative Goole & Thorne - Conservative Scunthorpe - Conservative Great Grimsby - Conservative |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,903
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Post by YL on Jun 26, 2020 15:40:15 GMT
Maybe, but I imagine the outcome (assuming it still works on the March 2020 numbers) will be minimum change, which means aligning everything to the new ward boundaries and then transferring Edlington from Don Valley to Doncaster C: not an elegant or imaginative approach, and one that leaves Conisbrough somewhat isolated from the rest of Don Valley, but there it is. Maybe, but there is the Isle of Axholme Problem to think about, assuming the BCE continues to use the regions. North East Lincolnshire and North Lincolnshire without the Isle of Axholme is 3 quotas, Doncaster is also 3, and Hull and the East Riding combined are 6, all almost exactly. But Axholme has to go somewhere, and experience of trying to draw seats which put it with Goole and points north suggests that these tend to be hideous messy things which either include parts of the East Riding a long way from Crowle or need to grab bits of Selby district making a three county seat. On the other hand, putting it with the eastern parts of Doncaster borough around Thorne puts it in a reasonably compact constituency with reasonable internal connections, and allows the East Riding (including Hull) to be treated as a unit. The cost is that you then need to cross Doncaster's boundaries somewhere else as well, but I think it needs to be considered. Of course, I think the real solution is to put those two unitaries in the East Midlands with the rest of Lincolnshire. |
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Post by lancastrian on Jun 26, 2020 16:24:12 GMT
Hull East - Labour Hull North - Labour Hull West & Hessle Haltemprice- Conservative Pocklington, Haltemprice & Howden - Conservative Haltemprice Urban District was Hessle, Cottingham, Anlaby, Kirk Ella etc, all that stuff around the western side of Hull. When the boundary commission propose to join them to Hull, they're probably going to want to be in one constituency. |
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 26, 2020 16:41:13 GMT
Hull East - Labour Hull North - Labour Hull West & Hessle Haltemprice- Conservative Pocklington, Haltemprice & Howden - Conservative Haltemprice Urban District was Hessle, Cottingham, Anlaby, Kirk Ella etc, all that stuff around the western side of Hull. When the boundary commission propose to join them to Hull, they're probably going to want to be in one constituency. Fair comment. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,745 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 26, 2020 17:17:06 GMT
South Yorkshire with 3 ward splits The three splits: -the parish of Shafton moves into Barnsley Central -the polling district in the western part of the Birley ward (around White Lane) moves into Sheffield Heeley -the northern most polling district in the Walkley ward (which is basically part of Hillsborough anyway) moves into Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough Should'a been put in Hillsborough in the first place:  |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 26, 2020 17:41:12 GMT
Or better, drop the "Central" from Doncaster and rename Doncaster North to Adwick-le-Street. Or, in a spirit of creative ambiguity, also known as confusing the hell out of everyone, just 'Adwick' on the grounds that Adwick upon Dearne is also in the seat. Doncaster North and the Adwicks because the commission's gonna commission. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 26, 2020 17:44:40 GMT
Maybe, but I imagine the outcome (assuming it still works on the March 2020 numbers) will be minimum change, which means aligning everything to the new ward boundaries and then transferring Edlington from Don Valley to Doncaster C: not an elegant or imaginative approach, and one that leaves Conisbrough somewhat isolated from the rest of Don Valley, but there it is. Maybe, but there is the Isle of Axholme Problem to think about, assuming the BCE continues to use the regions. North East Lincolnshire and North Lincolnshire without the Isle of Axholme is 3 quotas, Doncaster is also 3, and Hull and the East Riding combined are 6, all almost exactly. But Axholme has to go somewhere, and experience of trying to draw seats which put it with Goole and points north suggests that these tend to be hideous messy things which either include parts of the East Riding a long way from Crowle or need to grab bits of Selby district making a three county seat. On the other hand, putting it with the eastern parts of Doncaster borough around Thorne puts it in a reasonably compact constituency with reasonable internal connections, and allows the East Riding (including Hull) to be treated as a unit. The cost is that you then need to cross Doncaster's boundaries somewhere else as well, but I think it needs to be considered. Of course, I think the real solution is to put those two unitaries in the East Midlands with the rest of Lincolnshire. As long as the real solution is not to create a protected island constituency of Axholme. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 26, 2020 17:49:46 GMT
South Yorkshire with 3 ward splits The three splits: -the parish of Shafton moves into Barnsley Central -the polling district in the western part of the Birley ward (around White Lane) moves into Sheffield Heeley -the northern most polling district in the Walkley ward (which is basically part of Hillsborough anyway) moves into Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough Goole & Thorne - Conservative Doncaster South - Conservative Doncaster North - Labour Wentworth & Mexborough - Labour Rotherham - Labour Rother Valley - Conservative Sheffield South East - Labour Sheffield Heeley - Labour Sheffield Hallam - Labour Sheffield Central - Labour Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough - Labour Penistone & Stocksbridge - Conservative Barnsley Central - Labour Barnsley East - Labour islington may be interested Finally, the rest of Yorkshire with just the one ward split View AttachmentThat being: -the southern parishes of the East Wolds and Coastal ward move into Beverley & Holderness Skipton & Ripon - Conservative Richmond - Conservative Vale of York - Conservative Scarborough & Whitby - Conservative Harrogate & Knaresborough - Conservative Selby & Ainsty - Conservative York East - Labour York West - Labour Bridlington & Malton - Conservative Beverley & Holderness - Conservative Hull East - Labour Hull North - Labour Hull West & Hessle - Conservative Pocklington, Haltemprice & Howden - Conservative North Lincolnshire - Conservative Goole & Thorne - Conservative Scunthorpe - Conservative Great Grimsby - Conservative Unless I've miscounted your estimations they total:- Con 27 (+1) Lab 25 (-3) TCTC 1 (+1) Are you submitting your scheme to Yorkshire Labour for consideration? |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jun 26, 2020 18:24:09 GMT
I've now had a first go at North and East Yorkshire, trying not to look at previous attempts (although deliberately saving Thirsk and Malton):  I'm reasonably happy with the right-hand two thirds, but the western bit probably belongs in Pitchfork Bait. 1 Hull West 71812 Yes 2 Hull North 76004 Yes 3 Hull East and Holderness 70017 Yes 4 Beverley and Haltemprice 69517 Yes 5 Goole 69995 Yes 6 Bridlington 75336 Yes 7 Scarborough and Whitby 72191 Yes 8 Thirsk and Malton 70292 Yes 9 Redcar 69572 Yes 10 Middlesbrough Central and Thornaby 71505 Yes 11 Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East 71228 Yes 12 Northallerton 70896 Yes 13 Richmond and Ripon 71014 Yes 14 Skipton and Tadcaster 70539 Yes 15 Harrogate and Knaresborough 71416 Yes 16 York Outer 72723 Yes 17 York Central 70735 Yes 18 Selby 69659 Yes |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,903
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Post by YL on Jun 26, 2020 18:59:56 GMT
Maybe, but there is the Isle of Axholme Problem to think about, assuming the BCE continues to use the regions. North East Lincolnshire and North Lincolnshire without the Isle of Axholme is 3 quotas, Doncaster is also 3, and Hull and the East Riding combined are 6, all almost exactly. But Axholme has to go somewhere, and experience of trying to draw seats which put it with Goole and points north suggests that these tend to be hideous messy things which either include parts of the East Riding a long way from Crowle or need to grab bits of Selby district making a three county seat. On the other hand, putting it with the eastern parts of Doncaster borough around Thorne puts it in a reasonably compact constituency with reasonable internal connections, and allows the East Riding (including Hull) to be treated as a unit. The cost is that you then need to cross Doncaster's boundaries somewhere else as well, but I think it needs to be considered. Of course, I think the real solution is to put those two unitaries in the East Midlands with the rest of Lincolnshire. As long as the real solution is not to create a protected island constituency of Axholme. I toyed with the idea that it should be a Crown Dependency. |
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 26, 2020 19:44:45 GMT
Finally, the rest of Yorkshire with just the one ward split View AttachmentThat being: -the southern parishes of the East Wolds and Coastal ward move into Beverley & Holderness Skipton & Ripon - Conservative Richmond - Conservative Vale of York - Conservative Scarborough & Whitby - Conservative Harrogate & Knaresborough - Conservative Selby & Ainsty - Conservative York East - Labour York West - Labour Bridlington & Malton - Conservative Beverley & Holderness - Conservative Hull East - Labour Hull North - Labour Hull West & Hessle - Conservative Pocklington, Haltemprice & Howden - Conservative North Lincolnshire - Conservative Goole & Thorne - Conservative Scunthorpe - Conservative Great Grimsby - Conservative Unless I've miscounted your estimations they total:- Con 27 (+1) Lab 25 (-3) TCTC 1 (+1) Are you submitting your scheme to Yorkshire Labour for consideration? I think those numbers are pretty fair when you consider how close the party vote was? Unless I’ve missed your meaning. |
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Post by lancastrian on Jun 26, 2020 21:15:27 GMT
Morley and Penistone must have been Tory in December, probably one of the Rother Valley successors as well. Split wards are ? Presumably Lindley, Horbury & Ossett, South Hunsley(E Yorks), plus one each in Calder Valley, Elmet & Rothwell, Leeds NW, Leeds SE, Sheffield Heeley, Batley & Spen (is this an orphan half-ward in Morley or Bradford South?). If so many wards are going to be split you may as well use them to avoid linking Leeds and Richmondshire. The orphan half-ward is in Morley, yes. The awkward size of the Kirklees wards in relation to the allowable electoral range made other solutions unworkable or undesirable. As for North Yorkshire poking into Leeds, I was unable to avoid this due to the shifts needed in East and North Yorkshire (again due to oversized wards, especially in East Yorkshire which has 3-member rural wards!), especially since every constituency in North Yorkshire except Scarborough & Whitby is over the maximum electorate on 2019 figures. My version of Morley does not include Outwood but does include a safe Labour ward in Leeds (Outwood is more safely Conservative at a parliamentary level). My version of Penistone extends further into Barnsley and does not include Stocksbridge or Ecclesfield, which may be enough to just tip it into the Labour column notionally. I'm not sure whether Outwood is much better for the Conservatives than Morley in general elections, but in any case it's only about 30% of the constituency. Supposing Labour won Middleton Park by 4000 maybe, Outwood would need to be something like 70% Tory to bring the margin in Morley down far enough. Assuming Batley isn't split part of Batley and Spen won't help Labour either. For Penistone, you've got Darton vs Penistone, Kirkburton, Denby Dale and Wakefield Rural - local elections suggest it'd have been Tory since 2010, it wouldn't have been close last year. |
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