YL
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Post by YL on Jun 11, 2020 18:25:39 GMT
Would the best figures to use for the time being be the December electorate figures, then broken down by ward in the same proportions as the ONS figures? (Or equivalently, multiply each ONS ward figure in a constituency by the factor needed to get the total constituency level total correct). As an approximation, I guess, but the changes between the two sets are quite non-uniform and are likely to be at ward level as well. E.g., the electorates for the five Sheffield constituencies are: | Constituency | "1 Dec" | GE | | Brightside & Hillsborough | 67888 | 69333 | | Central | 79414 | 89849 | | Hallam | 69323 | 72763 | | Heeley | 65391 | 66940 | | South East | 67031 | 67832 |
It would be surprising if that surge in Central wasn't disproportionately larger in City and Broomhill & Sharrow Vale than in Manor Castle. This is relevant to what might happen: it's going to lose a few thousand electors, mostly to Hallam, as a result of ward boundary changes, but if not too much of that surge is in Manor Castle it's possible that simply losing that ward might make a viable constituency (Broomhill & Sharrow Vale, City, Nether Edge & Sharrow, Walkley) on the General Election numbers. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 11, 2020 18:42:44 GMT
Would the best figures to use for the time being be the December electorate figures, then broken down by ward in the same proportions as the ONS figures? (Or equivalently, multiply each ONS ward figure in a constituency by the factor needed to get the total constituency level total correct). That assumes the GE boost is uniform across constituencies; which may or may not be the case (but if it is the case, then likely it is pretty uniform across the country in which case you might as well just use the ONS numbers as they stand). Obv you would also need to re-calculate the quota based on the total GE number UK-wide. We’ll have the figures soon. Be patient. There’s no hurry. |
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Post by islington on Jun 11, 2020 18:53:58 GMT
That assumes the GE boost is uniform across constituencies; which may or may not be the case (but if it is the case, then likely it is pretty uniform across the country in which case you might as well just use the ONS numbers as they stand). Obv you would also need to re-calculate the quota based on the total GE number UK-wide. We’ll have the figures soon. Be patient. There’s no hurry. No, I want them NOW, dammit, NOW, NOW!!! |
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Post by evergreenadam on Jun 11, 2020 20:19:16 GMT
Has anyone done the regional breakdown of the GE figures to see if seat allocation would be any different compared to 1st December figures?
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YL
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Post by YL on Jun 11, 2020 20:42:25 GMT
Has anyone done the regional breakdown of the GE figures to see if seat allocation would be any different compared to 1st December figures? Yes, lancastrian did near the beginning of this thread: Compared with 1 December, that's one each extra for London, the NE and Y&H and one each fewer for the East, the East Midlands and the NW. |
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Jun 11, 2020 20:53:40 GMT
Thinking about the possible changes between the GE and March 2020 - I'd assume the electorates are only likely to have gone down, in which case the question becomes whether any regions have declined disproportionately relative to others. I don't really have a feel for what sort of relative changes we might expect in such a short time, but I'd assume only very modest fluctuations. In that case I think the most likely changes would be:
Scotland (ex. Islands) - 54.49 quotas from the GE, so a small relative gain might tip it up a seat to 55.
North East - 26.54 at the GE, so a decline could see it drop to 26.
East Midlands - 47.45 at the GE
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2020 22:57:22 GMT
Using the spreadsheet of results from the House of Commons, here, I make the total Oxfordshire electorate 496728, which I make about 6.8 quotas, which would be just about enough. There are two sets of "December 2019 electorates". One is the General Election ones, and the other is the annual 1 December electorate reported to the ONS. As pointed out a couple of pages back by kevinlarkin , we have a ward breakdown for the latter on the spreadsheet in the "Historic electorate data" section of boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/data-and-resources/(it's the column labelled 2020) whereas as far as I'm aware we don't have a ward breakdown for the General Election. So my recent posts in this thread (and I think those of others too) have been using the 1 December electorates. Given the announcement regarding the electorates to be used, the General Election ones might be more useful, but of course the allowed range will be different. Using the 2020 figures I removed from the Preston Council Area the wards of Lea & Larches (which I imagine will go into Fylde CC), and Rural East/North (which will go into whatever "A6 Corridor" seat gets invented). This leaves the Preston + Fulwood seat the Zombie Review created both times. The electorate of that is 77,168, which would comfortably fit within the quota requirements. Whether this will survive the neighbouring seats is another guess (Chorley, and South Ribble, are in need of major surgery, West Lancashire also. Preston could be squeezed.) |
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Post by mattb on Jun 12, 2020 3:59:06 GMT
Using the 2020 figures I removed from the Preston Council Area the wards of Lea & Larches (which I imagine will go into Fylde CC), and Rural East/North (which will go into whatever "A6 Corridor" seat gets invented). This leaves the Preston + Fulwood seat the Zombie Review created both times. The electorate of that is 77,168, which would comfortably fit within the quota requirements. Whether this will survive the neighbouring seats is another guess (Chorley, and South Ribble, are in need of major surgery, West Lancashire also. Preston could be squeezed.) Using the ONS ward-by-ward data, the allowed range is just under 70k to just over 76k (see previous page). Using the GE data the quota will be higher. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2020 5:12:30 GMT
Using the 2020 figures I removed from the Preston Council Area the wards of Lea & Larches (which I imagine will go into Fylde CC), and Rural East/North (which will go into whatever "A6 Corridor" seat gets invented). This leaves the Preston + Fulwood seat the Zombie Review created both times. The electorate of that is 77,168, which would comfortably fit within the quota requirements. Whether this will survive the neighbouring seats is another guess (Chorley, and South Ribble, are in need of major surgery, West Lancashire also. Preston could be squeezed.) Using the ONS ward-by-ward data, the allowed range is just under 70k to just over 76k (see previous page). Using the GE data the quota will be higher. And I typed my post with the quota detail in my bloody signature!! |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 13, 2020 15:56:32 GMT
On those electorate figures, pairing boroughs by London Assembly constituency will become more frequent, to an extent, within this review:
Barnet and Camden: 4.97 quotas (5 seats)
Brent and Harrow: 4.89 quotas (5)
Enfield and Haringey: 4.98 quotas (5)
Tower Hamlets and Newham (most of City & East): 4.97 quotas (5)
Richmond upon Thames and Hounslow (both part of South West): 4.07 quotas (4)
Merton, Wandsworth and Kingston upon Thames: 6.17 quotas (6)
Hillingdon, Ealing, and Hammersmith & Fulham: 7 quotas (7)
City, Westminster, Kensington & Chelsea (most of West Central): 2.92 quotas (3)
Greenwich, Bexley and Bromley: 7.8 quotas (8).
Islington and Hackney (part of North East): 4.18 quotas (4).
Southwark and Lambeth obtain 3 seats each (6).
Other pairings: Lewisham and Croydon: 5.93 quotas (6).
Waltham Forest & Redbridge (5).
Barking, Dagenham & Havering (4).
Sutton can remain unpaired with any other London borough (2 seats).
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 13, 2020 15:59:45 GMT
On those electorate figures, pairing boroughs by London Assembly constituency will become more frequent, to an extent, within this review: Barnet and Camden: 4.97 quotas (5 seats) Brent and Harrow: 4.89 quotas (5) Enfield and Haringey: 4.98 quotas (5) Tower Hamlets and Newham (most of City & East): 4.97 quotas (5) Richmond upon Thames and Hounslow (both part of South West): 4.07 quotas (4) Merton, Wandsworth and Kingston upon Thames: 6.17 quotas (6) Hillingdon, Ealing, and Hammersmith & Fulham: 7 quotas (7) City, Westminster, Kensington & Chelsea (most of West Central): 2.92 quotas (3) Greenwich, Bexley and Bromley: 7.8 quotas (8). Islington and Hackney (part of North East): 4.18 quotas (4). Southwark and Lambeth obtain 3 seats each (6). Other pairings: Lewisham and Croydon: 5.93 quotas (6). Waltham Forest & Redbridge (5). Barking, Dagenham & Havering (4). Sutton can remain unpaired with any other London borough (2 seats). I don't think you've fully thought this through |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jun 13, 2020 16:02:06 GMT
On those electorate figures, pairing boroughs by London Assembly constituency will become more frequent, to an extent, within this review: Richmond upon Thames and Hounslow (both part of South West): 4.07 quotas (4) If you do that, you'll get a Thames-crossing constituency. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 13, 2020 16:16:26 GMT
On those electorate figures, pairing boroughs by London Assembly constituency will become more frequent, to an extent, within this review: Richmond upon Thames and Hounslow (both part of South West): 4.07 quotas (4) If you do that, you'll get a Thames-crossing constituency. "City of London Banks"  |
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YL
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Post by YL on Jun 13, 2020 16:18:05 GMT
I think this got discussed elsewhere but how would you divide up the South-West? How about: 6 seats for Cornwall 17 seats for Devon and Dorset excluding BCP
4 seats for BCP8 seats for Somerset excluding BANES 9 seats for Wiltshire, including Swindon, and BANES 14 seats for Gloucestershire and Bristol It's not always easy to second guess the BCE, but how seriously will they take the creation of the Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole unitary? I'm pretty confident that given the creation of a new county (in the sense they use the word) with 4.01 quotas, reviews from before the days of the 5% rule would have re-arranged the area and given it four seats on its own. I imagine they would have also given four seats to the new Dorset unitary, which has 4.19 quotas, but that's pretty tight with the 5% rule, and probably impossible without careful ward splitting. (That's on the 1 December figures in both cases.) However, as far as I can see it involves considerable re-arrangement of the existing seats in greater Dorset to do that, given that both Christchurch and Mid Dorset & North Poole cross the border. I've come up with a plan which gets all seats within tolerance (unless I've misplaced a ward somewhere in my spreadsheet) with 4 seats for BCP and 17 for rump Dorset plus Devon, but in Dorset only Poole and North Dorset are really recognisable. My guess is that with the weakening of the rules about crossing county boundaries they may well choose to stay closer to the existing pattern of constituencies. |
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Post by mattb on Jun 13, 2020 17:54:17 GMT
It's not always easy to second guess the BCE, but how seriously will they take the creation of the Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole unitary? I'm pretty confident that given the creation of a new county (in the sense they use the word) with 4.01 quotas, reviews from before the days of the 5% rule would have re-arranged the area and given it four seats on its own. I imagine they would have also given four seats to the new Dorset unitary, which has 4.19 quotas, but that's pretty tight with the 5% rule, and probably impossible without careful ward splitting. (That's on the 1 December figures in both cases.) However, as far as I can see it involves considerable re-arrangement of the existing seats in greater Dorset to do that, given that both Christchurch and Mid Dorset & North Poole cross the border. I've come up with a plan which gets all seats within tolerance (unless I've misplaced a ward somewhere in my spreadsheet) with 4 seats for BCP and 17 for rump Dorset plus Devon, but in Dorset only Poole and North Dorset are really recognisable. My guess is that with the weakening of the rules about crossing county boundaries they may well choose to stay closer to the existing pattern of constituencies. You may be right but this was my attempt based on the pairing you suggest - in my case the Dorset seats are all fairly recognisable, as well as Poole and (arguably) Bournemouth C. But Christchurch & Boscombe is 50-50 and my Bournemouth N is drawn from 4 existing seats. But as noted on another thread, Devon (probably) has to pair, so if not with Dorset that probably pushes you to a giant review area including Devon, Somerset & Wilts. (map is best fit to the new wards)  |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 13, 2020 19:01:39 GMT
On those electorate figures, pairing boroughs by London Assembly constituency will become more frequent, to an extent, within this review: Richmond upon Thames and Hounslow (both part of South West): 4.07 quotas (4) If you do that, you'll get a Thames-crossing constituency. You will but unfortunately that is unavoidable under the 5% quota. Besides, Richmond & Barnes, which existed from 1983-97, crossed the River Thames yet the BCE still allowed it. |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 13, 2020 19:03:40 GMT
On those electorate figures, pairing boroughs by London Assembly constituency will become more frequent, to an extent, within this review: Barnet and Camden: 4.97 quotas (5 seats) Brent and Harrow: 4.89 quotas (5) Enfield and Haringey: 4.98 quotas (5) Tower Hamlets and Newham (most of City & East): 4.97 quotas (5) Richmond upon Thames and Hounslow (both part of South West): 4.07 quotas (4) Merton, Wandsworth and Kingston upon Thames: 6.17 quotas (6) Hillingdon, Ealing, and Hammersmith & Fulham: 7 quotas (7) City, Westminster, Kensington & Chelsea (most of West Central): 2.92 quotas (3) Greenwich, Bexley and Bromley: 7.8 quotas (8). Islington and Hackney (part of North East): 4.18 quotas (4). Southwark and Lambeth obtain 3 seats each (6). Other pairings: Lewisham and Croydon: 5.93 quotas (6). Waltham Forest & Redbridge (5). Barking, Dagenham & Havering (4). Sutton can remain unpaired with any other London borough (2 seats). I don't think you've fully thought this through Actually I have. Under these electorate figures Croydon is too large for 3 constituencies yet not large enough for 4, and there just is not any other London Borough it can be paired with given that Sutton will retain its entitlement of 2 seats. Lewisham and Croydon do share a border. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jun 13, 2020 19:29:29 GMT
Lewisham and Croydon do share a border. Where? |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 13, 2020 19:38:41 GMT
Lewisham and Croydon do share a border. Where? Oops-they actually do not. That constituency border of Lewisham West & Penge with Croydon North is only on the "Penge" part. I will revise these planned pairings accordingly. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 13, 2020 20:35:15 GMT
Lewisham and Croydon do share a border. Where? With Bromley? |
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