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Post by mattb on Jun 9, 2020 14:32:07 GMT
The 2019 numbers across East of England (if you review it as a region) are a bit awkward. Beds must pair up and pairing with Cambs doesn't help so only real option is a pair with Herts - which actually works quite well with +1 seat. Norfolk also must pair and again pairing with Cambs doesn't really help whereas Norfolk-Suffolk works well also with +1. Cambs as noted above is fine stand-alone (+1) - but that means squeezing a whole extra seat into Essex with barely 18½ quota. Given large ward sizes in much of Essex, that is extremely tight. Just for fun I thought I'd have a go and just about managed it (with a tiny bit of poetic licence - one of the seats is about 40 electors below the -5% level). To get this to work, none of the 19 seats is much above quota so working with a range of only about 3,000 (69,000 - 72,000) - which is well below the size of one ward in most of the county (!). There are one or two obvious compromises (inevitably given the very tight constraints) but only a single orphan ward. No seat combines wards from more than two local authorities. The extra seat is Billericay (combining the town with most of the rural wards from Chelmsford borough). That also allowed me to get most of Basildon into one seat. Actually quite pleased with this overall. There are some new names due to significant rearrangement in SE of the county: Tilbury & Canvey* Leigh & Hadleigh Southend C Rochford & Shoebury * I know this will send some people on here into a tizzy. However there is a perfectly good direct road link between the two parts of the seat, which doesn't really run 'through' another seat - if you could draw the lines differently on the map to bring the link within the seat, you would move hardly any electors between seats.   I did also create a viable scheme by pairing Essex with Cambs (several S Cambs wards into Saffron Walden which I think is fine). That allows a better outcome around Epping Forest and keeps the existing pattern around Southend more-or-less intact - but on the other hand it leaves Basildon horribly split and the new seat is now Billericay & Dunmow, which is rather clunky and crosses into three councils. Not sure how much of an improvement this is overall.  (maps aligned with new wards as far as poss). Everything will no doubt be different anyway on the 2020 numbers! |
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Post by bsjmcr on Jun 9, 2020 16:49:41 GMT
Absolutely not. I don't know Essex very well if at all, but the real Leigh is, has always been, and always will be, in Wigan (Burnham's old patch, now a famous Tory gain last year) - it has a population much bigger than your Essex one. Seeing that it is part of Southend District, surely it could be called Southend ____ (and Hadleigh) instead. |
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Post by mattb on Jun 9, 2020 16:57:45 GMT
Absolutely not. I don't know Essex very well if at all, but the real Leigh is, has always been, and always will be, in Wigan (Burnham's old patch, now a famous Tory gain last year) - it has a population much bigger than your Essex one. Seeing that it is part of Southend District, surely it could be called Southend ____ (and Hadleigh) instead. point taken, the Lancs one got there first (though I doubt it's any larger, actually). |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2020 17:00:06 GMT
Absolutely not. I don't know Essex very well if at all, but the real Leigh is, has always been, and always will be, in Wigan (Burnham's old patch, now a famous Tory gain last year) - it has a population much bigger than your Essex one. Seeing that it is part of Southend District, surely it could be called Southend ____ (and Hadleigh) instead. point taken, the Lancs one got there first (though I doubt it's any larger, actually). "Leigh-on-Sea" wouldn't be a problem. |
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Post by evergreenadam on Jun 9, 2020 17:27:17 GMT
The 2019 numbers across East of England (if you review it as a region) are a bit awkward. Beds must pair up and pairing with Cambs doesn't help so only real option is a pair with Herts - which actually works quite well with +1 seat. Norfolk also must pair and again pairing with Cambs doesn't really help whereas Norfolk-Suffolk works well also with +1. Cambs as noted above is fine stand-alone (+1) - but that means squeezing a whole extra seat into Essex with barely 18½ quota. Given large ward sizes in much of Essex, that is extremely tight. Just for fun I thought I'd have a go and just about managed it (with a tiny bit of poetic licence - one of the seats is about 40 electors below the -5% level). To get this to work, none of the 19 seats is much above quota so working with a range of only about 3,000 (69,000 - 72,000) - which is well below the size of one ward in most of the county (!). There are one or two obvious compromises (inevitably given the very tight constraints) but only a single orphan ward. No seat combines wards from more than two local authorities. The extra seat is Billericay (combining the town with most of the rural wards from Chelmsford borough). That also allowed me to get most of Basildon into one seat. Actually quite pleased with this overall. There are some new names due to significant rearrangement in SE of the county: Tilbury & Canvey* Leigh & Hadleigh Southend C Rochford & Shoebury * I know this will send some people on here into a tizzy. However there is a perfectly good direct road link between the two parts of the seat, which doesn't really run 'through' another seat - if you could draw the lines differently on the map to bring the link within the seat, you would move hardly any electors between seats. I did also create a viable scheme by pairing Essex with Cambs (several S Cambs wards into Saffron Walden which I think is fine). That allows a better outcome around Epping Forest and keeps the existing pattern around Southend more-or-less intact - but on the other hand it leaves Basildon horribly split and the new seat is now Billericay & Dunmow, which is rather clunky and crosses into three councils. Not sure how much of an improvement this is overall. (maps aligned with new wards as far as poss). Everything will no doubt be different anyway on the 2020 numbers! Any idea on political implications? Basildon in one seat would be good. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 9, 2020 17:58:50 GMT
The 2019 numbers across East of England (if you review it as a region) are a bit awkward. Beds must pair up and pairing with Cambs doesn't help so only real option is a pair with Herts - which actually works quite well with +1 seat. Norfolk also must pair and again pairing with Cambs doesn't really help whereas Norfolk-Suffolk works well also with +1. Cambs as noted above is fine stand-alone (+1) - but that means squeezing a whole extra seat into Essex with barely 18½ quota. Given large ward sizes in much of Essex, that is extremely tight. Just for fun I thought I'd have a go and just about managed it (with a tiny bit of poetic licence - one of the seats is about 40 electors below the -5% level). To get this to work, none of the 19 seats is much above quota so working with a range of only about 3,000 (69,000 - 72,000) - which is well below the size of one ward in most of the county (!). There are one or two obvious compromises (inevitably given the very tight constraints) but only a single orphan ward. No seat combines wards from more than two local authorities. The extra seat is Billericay (combining the town with most of the rural wards from Chelmsford borough). That also allowed me to get most of Basildon into one seat. Actually quite pleased with this overall. There are some new names due to significant rearrangement in SE of the county: Tilbury & Canvey* Leigh & Hadleigh Southend C Rochford & Shoebury * I know this will send some people on here into a tizzy. However there is a perfectly good direct road link between the two parts of the seat, which doesn't really run 'through' another seat - if you could draw the lines differently on the map to bring the link within the seat, you would move hardly any electors between seats. I did also create a viable scheme by pairing Essex with Cambs (several S Cambs wards into Saffron Walden which I think is fine). That allows a better outcome around Epping Forest and keeps the existing pattern around Southend more-or-less intact - but on the other hand it leaves Basildon horribly split and the new seat is now Billericay & Dunmow, which is rather clunky and crosses into three councils. Not sure how much of an improvement this is overall. (maps aligned with new wards as far as poss). Everything will no doubt be different anyway on the 2020 numbers! Have you got the ward numbers to work with or are you basing it on the 2015 numbers in Boundary Assistant? Using the 2015 numbers the pattern was very similar except Essex kept 18 seats (which was also very difficult to fit). Suffolk/Norfolk worked well as you could give Suffolk an extra seat just by adding that part of Great Yarmouth which was formerly in Suffolk and again Cambridgeshire was good to stand alone with 8 seats. The Herts/Beds 18 seats worked well enough on the whole but the large size of some of the wards in Central Beds made it hard - the most logical cross county seat seemed to me to be one combining HItchin and Letchworth with the Alresley/Langford/ Stotfold area but it would have needed a ward-split to work on 2015 numbers |
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Post by mattb on Jun 9, 2020 19:11:47 GMT
Have you got the ward numbers to work with or are you basing it on the 2015 numbers in Boundary Assistant? Using the 2015 numbers the pattern was very similar except Essex kept 18 seats (which was also very difficult to fit). Suffolk/Norfolk worked well as you could give Suffolk an extra seat just by adding that part of Great Yarmouth which was formerly in Suffolk and again Cambridgeshire was good to stand alone with 8 seats. The Herts/Beds 18 seats worked well enough on the whole but the large size of some of the wards in Central Beds made it hard - the most logical cross county seat seemed to me to be one combining HItchin and Letchworth with the Alresley/Langford/ Stotfold area but it would have needed a ward-split to work on 2015 numbers Using the 2019 ward-by-ward spreadsheet from the Commission. I think Herts/Beds should work without a ward split. Agree the most likely cross-border seat would centre on Hitchin. All this depends on the final numbers, of course - though we might now get these sooner than we thought! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 10, 2020 12:13:10 GMT
What's the upper and lower limit we're looking for here?
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Post by kevinlarkin on Jun 10, 2020 13:19:09 GMT
What's the upper and lower limit we're looking for here? 68,983 to 76,243 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 10, 2020 13:44:51 GMT
I'd forgotten what a massive pain in the arse this exercise is when you have to keep shifting wards around a spreadsheet
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Post by YL on Jun 10, 2020 15:19:01 GMT
I was going to play with Oxfordshire too, but unfortunately the Commission's spreadsheet has the old Oxford wards. The new ones were meant to come into force for May 2020 and the order has been passed, so I assume the review will be using them. This is the same timescale as in Cambridge, where the spreadsheet does have the new wards.
The new Carfax & Jericho and Osney & St Thomas wards both cross the existing constituency boundary.
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Post by YL on Jun 10, 2020 15:40:19 GMT
I was going to play with Oxfordshire too, but unfortunately the Commission's spreadsheet has the old Oxford wards. The new ones were meant to come into force for May 2020 and the order has been passed, so I assume the review will be using them. This is the same timescale as in Cambridge, where the spreadsheet does have the new wards. The new Carfax & Jericho and Osney & St Thomas wards both cross the existing constituency boundary. Ah, damn. I should have realised! From memory, I don't think the new Oxford wards are dissimilar from the old ones; hopefully the numbers are roughly the same then. The old Carfax has a very low electorate (2712, and a small part, basically Keble College, goes to Holywell so wouldn't move) so you can just include the whole of both Carfax & Jericho and Osney & St Thomas in your Bicester & Summertown, and both will still be within quota. But as it would then contain much of Oxford city centre I'd put Oxford in the name. |
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Post by YL on Jun 10, 2020 16:12:01 GMT
I think this got discussed elsewhere but how would you divide up the South-West?
How about:
6 seats for Cornwall
17 seats for Devon and Dorset excluding BCP
4 seats for BCP
8 seats for Somerset excluding BANES
9 seats for Wiltshire, including Swindon, and BANES
14 seats for Gloucestershire and Bristol
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Post by mattb on Jun 10, 2020 18:41:24 GMT
For those interested, I've worked out a seven-seat Oxfordshire within those limits, using the 2019 figures. The ward boundary changes in Cherwell have made this somewhat easier. The boundaries are certainly not perfect; however, it's the best I could do with the limits. Some of the aesthetically unpleasing boundary lines could also be improved if we got a chance to use polling districts instead. There's also a certain amount of tinkering you could do between Abingdon and Wantage, swapping a few wards here and there. For instance, you could swap Thames and Kingston Bagpuize with Drayton and Sutton Courtenay. Abingdon (69,803) - Wootton, Thames, Kingston Bagpuize, Marcham, Cholsey, Wallingford, Abingdon Abbey Northcourt, Abingdon Caldecott, Abingdon Dunmore, Abingdon Fitzharris, Abingdon Peachcroft, Botley and Sunningwell, Cumnor, Kennington and Radley, Marcham, Sandford and the Wittenhams, Berinsfield. Wantage (69,756) - Didcot North East, Didcot South, Didcot West, Drayton, Sutton Courtenay, Blewbury and Harwell, Faringdon, Grove North, Hendreds, Steventon and the Hanneys, Ridgeway, Stanford, Wantage, Charlton, Wantage and Grove Brook, Watchfield and Shrivenham. Bicester and Summertown (70,866) - Kidlington East, Kidlington West, Jericho and Osney, North, St Margaret's, Summertown, Wolvercote, Launton and Otmoor, Bicester East, Bicester North and Caversfield, Bicester South and Ambrosden, Bicester West, Launton and Otmoor, Marston. Henley (70,477) - Benson and Crowmarsh, Chalgrove, Chinnor, Forest Hill and Holton, Garsington and Horspath, Goring, Haseley Brook, Henley-on-Thames, Kidmore End and Whitchurch, Sonning Common, Thame, Watlington, Wheatley. Banbury (71,323) - Adderbury, Bloxham and Bodicote, Banbury Calthorpe and Easington, Banbury Cross and Neithrop, Banbury Grimsbury and Hightown, Banbury Hardwick, Banbury Ruscote, Kingham, Rollright and Enstone, Chipping Norton, The Bartons, Fringford and Heyfords, Cropredy, Sibfords and Wroxton, Deddington, Fringford and Heyfords. Oxford (73,721) - Barton and Sandhills, Blackbird Leys, Carfax, Churchill, Cowley, Cowley Marsh, Headington, Headington Hill and Northway, Hinksey Park, Holywell, Iffley Fields, Littlemore, Lye Valley, Northfield Brook, Quarry and Risinghurst, Rose Hill and Iffley, St Clement's, St Mary's. Witney (73,770) - Alvescot and Filkins, Ascott and Shipton, Bampton and Clanfield, Brize Norton and Shilton, Burford, Carterton North East, Carterton North West, Carterton South, Chadlington and Churchill, Charlbury and Finstock, Ducklington, Eynsham and Cassington, Freeland and Hanborough, Hailey, Minster Lovell and Leafield, Milton-under-Wychwood, North Leigh, Standlake, Aston and Stanton Harcourt, Stonesfield and Tackley, Witney Central, Witney East, Witney North, Witney South, Witney West, Woodstock and Bladon. Which numbers are you using? 2019 spreadsheet I have has only 484583 total electors for Oxon (6.67 quotas) which is effectively impossible for 7 seats? Surely will have to be paired unless I am mistaken? |
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Post by kevinlarkin on Jun 10, 2020 19:31:23 GMT
I'd forgotten what a massive pain in the arse this exercise is when you have to keep shifting wards around a spreadsheet I have worked through the anomalies in the BCE spreadsheet, and there are a lot of them, including split wards where the ward total electorate does not equal the sum of the parts, and authorities using old ward codes which do not match up with the Ordnance Survey boundary data. There is still quite a bit of testing to do but there should be a Boundary Assistant update within the next 7 to 10 days. |
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Post by carolus on Jun 11, 2020 8:41:18 GMT
For those interested, I've worked out a seven-seat Oxfordshire within those limits, using the 2019 figures. The ward boundary changes in Cherwell have made this somewhat easier. The boundaries are certainly not perfect; however, it's the best I could do with the limits. Some of the aesthetically unpleasing boundary lines could also be improved if we got a chance to use polling districts instead. There's also a certain amount of tinkering you could do between Abingdon and Wantage, swapping a few wards here and there. For instance, you could swap Thames and Kingston Bagpuize with Drayton and Sutton Courtenay. Abingdon (69,803) - Wootton, Thames, Kingston Bagpuize, Marcham, Cholsey, Wallingford, Abingdon Abbey Northcourt, Abingdon Caldecott, Abingdon Dunmore, Abingdon Fitzharris, Abingdon Peachcroft, Botley and Sunningwell, Cumnor, Kennington and Radley, Marcham, Sandford and the Wittenhams, Berinsfield. Wantage (69,756) - Didcot North East, Didcot South, Didcot West, Drayton, Sutton Courtenay, Blewbury and Harwell, Faringdon, Grove North, Hendreds, Steventon and the Hanneys, Ridgeway, Stanford, Wantage, Charlton, Wantage and Grove Brook, Watchfield and Shrivenham. Bicester and Summertown (70,866) - Kidlington East, Kidlington West, Jericho and Osney, North, St Margaret's, Summertown, Wolvercote, Launton and Otmoor, Bicester East, Bicester North and Caversfield, Bicester South and Ambrosden, Bicester West, Launton and Otmoor, Marston. Henley (70,477) - Benson and Crowmarsh, Chalgrove, Chinnor, Forest Hill and Holton, Garsington and Horspath, Goring, Haseley Brook, Henley-on-Thames, Kidmore End and Whitchurch, Sonning Common, Thame, Watlington, Wheatley. Banbury (71,323) - Adderbury, Bloxham and Bodicote, Banbury Calthorpe and Easington, Banbury Cross and Neithrop, Banbury Grimsbury and Hightown, Banbury Hardwick, Banbury Ruscote, Kingham, Rollright and Enstone, Chipping Norton, The Bartons, Fringford and Heyfords, Cropredy, Sibfords and Wroxton, Deddington, Fringford and Heyfords. Oxford (73,721) - Barton and Sandhills, Blackbird Leys, Carfax, Churchill, Cowley, Cowley Marsh, Headington, Headington Hill and Northway, Hinksey Park, Holywell, Iffley Fields, Littlemore, Lye Valley, Northfield Brook, Quarry and Risinghurst, Rose Hill and Iffley, St Clement's, St Mary's. Witney (73,770) - Alvescot and Filkins, Ascott and Shipton, Bampton and Clanfield, Brize Norton and Shilton, Burford, Carterton North East, Carterton North West, Carterton South, Chadlington and Churchill, Charlbury and Finstock, Ducklington, Eynsham and Cassington, Freeland and Hanborough, Hailey, Minster Lovell and Leafield, Milton-under-Wychwood, North Leigh, Standlake, Aston and Stanton Harcourt, Stonesfield and Tackley, Witney Central, Witney East, Witney North, Witney South, Witney West, Woodstock and Bladon. Which numbers are you using? 2019 spreadsheet I have has only 484583 total electors for Oxon (6.67 quotas) which is effectively impossible for 7 seats? Surely will have to be paired unless I am mistaken? Using the spreadsheet of results from the House of Commons, here, I make the total Oxfordshire electorate 496728, which I make about 6.8 quotas, which would be just about enough. |
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Post by YL on Jun 11, 2020 8:49:51 GMT
Which numbers are you using? 2019 spreadsheet I have has only 484583 total electors for Oxon (6.67 quotas) which is effectively impossible for 7 seats? Surely will have to be paired unless I am mistaken? Using the spreadsheet of results from the House of Commons, here, I make the total Oxfordshire electorate 496728, which I make about 6.8 quotas, which would be just about enough. There are two sets of "December 2019 electorates". One is the General Election ones, and the other is the annual 1 December electorate reported to the ONS. As pointed out a couple of pages back by kevinlarkin , we have a ward breakdown for the latter on the spreadsheet in the "Historic electorate data" section of boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/data-and-resources/(it's the column labelled 2020) whereas as far as I'm aware we don't have a ward breakdown for the General Election. So my recent posts in this thread (and I think those of others too) have been using the 1 December electorates. Given the announcement regarding the electorates to be used, the General Election ones might be more useful, but of course the allowed range will be different. |
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Post by evergreenadam on Jun 11, 2020 11:41:03 GMT
Using the spreadsheet of results from the House of Commons, here, I make the total Oxfordshire electorate 496728, which I make about 6.8 quotas, which would be just about enough. There are two sets of "December 2019 electorates". One is the General Election ones, and the other is the annual 1 December electorate reported to the ONS. As pointed out a couple of pages back by kevinlarkin , we have a ward breakdown for the latter on the spreadsheet in the "Historic electorate data" section of boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/data-and-resources/(it's the column labelled 2020) whereas as far as I'm aware we don't have a ward breakdown for the General Election. So my recent posts in this thread (and I think those of others too) have been using the 1 December electorates. Given the announcement regarding the electorates to be used, the General Election ones might be more useful, but of course the allowed range will be different. Things are going to get very interesting with the general election boost to the electorate figures especially as the regional quotas were so tight. Keep an eye on North East and Yorkshire/Humberside which narrowly miss out on retaining an extra seat on the 1st December figures. |
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Post by Wisconsin on Jun 11, 2020 16:17:35 GMT
Would the best figures to use for the time being be the December electorate figures, then broken down by ward in the same proportions as the ONS figures?
(Or equivalently, multiply each ONS ward figure in a constituency by the factor needed to get the total constituency level total correct).
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Post by mattb on Jun 11, 2020 18:13:43 GMT
Would the best figures to use for the time being be the December electorate figures, then broken down by ward in the same proportions as the ONS figures? (Or equivalently, multiply each ONS ward figure in a constituency by the factor needed to get the total constituency level total correct). That assumes the GE boost is uniform across constituencies; which may or may not be the case (but if it is the case, then likely it is pretty uniform across the country in which case you might as well just use the ONS numbers as they stand). Obv you would also need to re-calculate the quota based on the total GE number UK-wide. |
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