Vince Cable leads Lib Dems into 2019 election

[Deleted]

Would Vince Cable have fared any better than Swinson?

[Deleted]

No.

[Adam in Stroud]

A bit.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

It would've been less humiliating because their leader wouldn't have lost their seat.

[tonyhill]

Yes, certainly. I don't believe that Vince would have proposed a Revoke policy, and without that we wouldn't have had leaflets saying "Our Next Prime Minister" both of which were massive strategic errors, the first because it allowed us to be portrayed as undemocratic (which we were), and the second because literally nobody believed it, even Swinson. The third factor, unfortunately, was that so many people didn't take to Swinson, whereas Vince is well-known and widely respected. He would have dealt with attacks on the LibDems' record in government in a calm and rational way which would have defused their effectiveness to an extent. We might have won another half dozen seats under his leadership, though it could have been more than that had our support not drifted downwards during the campaign which with him as leader it might not have done.

[jamesg]

Dec 18, 2019 6:41:51 GMT tonyhill said:

Yes, certainly. I don't believe that Vince would have proposed a Revoke policy, and without that we wouldn't have had leaflets saying "Our Next Prime Minister" both of which were massive strategic errors, the first because it allowed us to be portrayed as undemocratic (which we were), and the second because literally nobody believed it, even Swinson. The third factor, unfortunately, was that so many people didn't take to Swinson, whereas Vince is well-known and widely respected. He would have dealt with attacks on the LibDems' record in government in a calm and rational way which would have defused their effectiveness to an extent. We might have won another half dozen seats under his leadership, though it could have been more than that had our support not drifted downwards during the campaign which with him as leader it might not have done.

I agree. None of the silliness which we saw from Swinson would have been present. I don't think he would have had the defectors being as high-profile in the party campaign as they were, not to the extent of them seeming to be the only ones apart from the leader running either.
Chuka, Berger and Sam G played a significant role in the manifesto presentation too.
However, would Vince have been up to campaigning? The last time I saw him he looked very tired and worn down. He was shaking too.

[Deleted]

The Lib Dems may have done a tad better in England and with Swinson not a target they might have held East Dunbartonshire.

So maybe the result would have been

LD gain from CON (5)
Cheltenham; Richmond Park; St Albans; Wimbledon; Winchester

LD gain from LAB (1)
Sheffield Hallam

LD gain from SNP (1)
North East Fife

LD HOLD (10)
Bath; Caithness; Carshalton; East Dunbartonshire; Edinburgh West; Kingston; Orkney; Oxford West; Twickenham; Westmorland

Toss-up (3)
Esher; Lewes; South Cambridgeshire

[iang]

Would Hallam have been more likely to tip into the LD column with Vince as leader?

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jan 12, 2020 16:22:41 GMT iang said:

Would Hallam have been more likely to tip into the LD column with Vince as leader?

As candidate - yes

As leader - I'm guessing but will say no, but Labour majority might only have been 100.

👽

[Deleted]

Jan 12, 2020 16:22:41 GMT iang said:

Would Hallam have been more likely to tip into the LD column with Vince as leader?

Yes - Lib Dems would have got more tactical votes from the Tories in East Dunbartonshire and Sheffield Hallam.

[iang]

Jan 12, 2020 18:03:13 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Jan 12, 2020 16:22:41 GMT iang said:

Would Hallam have been more likely to tip into the LD column with Vince as leader?

Yes - Lib Dems would have got more tactical votes from the Tories in East Dunbartonshire and Sheffield Hallam.

And you missed off Kingston in the original post - that would certainly have been a hold!

[Deleted]

Jan 12, 2020 18:32:12 GMT iang said:

Jan 12, 2020 18:03:13 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Yes - Lib Dems would have got more tactical votes from the Tories in East Dunbartonshire and Sheffield Hallam.

And you missed off Kingston in the original post - that would certainly have been a hold!

Now added. 

[nobodyimportant]

Ironically the most likely difference is Jo Swinson holding her seat.

[curiousliberal]

Perhaps it's overly bold to assume the election would have happened in the circumstances it did if Cable were leader.

[greenchristian]

Jan 14, 2020 23:34:39 GMT curiousliberal said:

Perhaps it's overly bold to assume the election would have happened in the circumstances it did if Cable were leader.

What you you think he would have done differently that could have changed the circumstances?

[edgbaston]

I am on record advising the Lib Dems to keep Vince, and not be tempted by one of the two ‘up and comers’. I have been proved right, I think!

[curiousliberal]

Jan 17, 2020 1:25:47 GMT greenchristian said:

Jan 14, 2020 23:34:39 GMT curiousliberal said:

Perhaps it's overly bold to assume the election would have happened in the circumstances it did if Cable were leader.

What you you think he would have done differently that could have changed the circumstances?

Being a bit more supportive of a GNU (even a hypothetically Labour-led GNU with Corbyn around) would have turned the political heat onto Labour and independent MPs, perhaps enough for them to buckle. It was one of those 'damaging in a GE, but a pragmatic way to improve governance' moves we were supposed to be capable of, and Cable was - not always to his credit - a bit of a schemer. He might have been able to convince some people who felt unable to support one when Swinson was in charge (and apparently did a fair bit to get defectors on board, though she deserves primary credit for presiding over those results). However, this strategy would have been particularly intimidating towards a Scottish MP considering our current Scottish strategy and the presence of the SNP in a hypothetical GNU. 

Not adopting Revoke (or his more competent style of leadership in general as opposed to Swinson's) might have provided insufficient encouragement for other parties (Labour/Conservatives etc) to move events towards a December GE. I doubt it was much of a factor, but can't rule it out as Johnson and Corbyn haven't been 100% forthcoming about the political calculations involved at the time.

[curiousliberal]

From the leadership thread - a Lib Dem MP has privately claimed that LD refusal to back a GE could have gotten a referendum out of Johnson. They're not laying out exactly how, so take this with a large serving of salt, but presumably they've drawn inferences from some of the back-room deals going on in Parliament.

[timrollpickering]

The internal report blames an attempt to avoid a mess at the party conference as the reason why the Lib Dems wound up with the Revoke policy. How would Cable have tackled this differently or would the conference floor have forced the most #FBPE policy imaginable upon the party?

But certainly I think Sir Vince could have done better at explaining it then Swinson and I also think the party wouldn't have got itself into such a mess over the debates. However he would not have been able to evade attacks on the Coalition record - he was the Secretary of State who increased tuition fees after all! - and surely some of the resources promised to defectors had been promised on his watch?

[iang]

I think he wouldn't have faced the sheer hostility that Jo Swinson faced, not least online (the squirrels, the husband making millions from the EU etc). I'm convinced that at least some of that hostility was based on her being female, which obviously Vince wouldn't have faced, and I also think he would have handled it better. I think Jo got better as the campaign went on, but by then the damage was done. I don't think it would have made a vast difference though - I think conservativeestimate's summary is probably about right