nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Dec 23, 2019 9:50:09 GMT
I thought commonly there were 2 definitions- a large turnover of seats(maybe 100 as a rule of thumb) or a 100+ majority
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2019 9:51:37 GMT
A party winning by over 10% in the popular vote must qualify for a landslide.
So 1966 wouldn't count but 2019 would.
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Post by heslingtonian on Dec 23, 2019 17:54:07 GMT
Certainly a borderline landslide and some landslide proportion results in previous marginals. However, the fact that the majority was under 100 and that some seats trending Labour weren’t swept up into the landslide (eg Canterbury, Reading East, Bedford etc) possibly disqualifies it. Worth remembering in 1997 that some seats which were trending Conservative were still swept up such as Romford and Castle Point. A partial North and Midlands landslide would be a more accurate description.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2019 17:58:41 GMT
Certainly a borderline landslide and some landslide proportion results in previous marginals. However, the fact that the majority was under 100 and that some seats trending Labour weren’t swept up into the landslide (eg Canterbury, Reading East, Bedford etc) possibly disqualifies it. Worth remembering in 1997 that some seats which were trending Conservative were still swept up such as Romford and Castle Point. A partial North and Midlands landslide would be a more accurate description. What we saw in the Midlands was a seismic shift. Seats along the M1 like Morley and North East Derbyshire that have been trending Tory since 1997 will be hardest for Labour to win back. Sherwood for example voted Labour in 1992 but now the idea of Labour winning there while being 8% behind nationally seems far-fetched. However I don't think Burnley and Redcar are trending Tory in the same way. They're just seats that can give two fingers to red in bad years like 2010 and 2019. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Dec 23, 2019 18:04:06 GMT
Certainly a borderline landslide and some landslide proportion results in previous marginals. However, the fact that the majority was under 100 and that some seats trending Labour weren’t swept up into the landslide (eg Canterbury, Reading East, Bedford etc) possibly disqualifies it. Worth remembering in 1997 that some seats which were trending Conservative were still swept up such as Romford and Castle Point. A partial North and Midlands landslide would be a more accurate description. What we saw in the Midlands was a seismic shift. Seats along the M1 like Morley and North East Derbyshire that have been trending Tory since 1997 will be hardest for Labour to win back. Sherwood for example voted Labour in 1992 but now the idea of Labour winning there while being 8% behind nationally seems far-fetched. Good point. Another example is Cannock Chase. Reliably Labour from 1992 to 2010 and now in the top 15 highest Conservative percentage votes of around 68%. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2019 18:36:27 GMT
What we saw in the Midlands was a seismic shift. Seats along the M1 like Morley and North East Derbyshire that have been trending Tory since 1997 will be hardest for Labour to win back. Sherwood for example voted Labour in 1992 but now the idea of Labour winning there while being 8% behind nationally seems far-fetched. Good point. Another example is Cannock Chase. Reliably Labour from 1992 to 2010 and now in the top 15 highest Conservative percentage votes of around 68%. Also North Warwickshire and Rossendale. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Dec 23, 2019 19:12:12 GMT
Good point. Another example is Cannock Chase. Reliably Labour from 1992 to 2010 and now in the top 15 highest Conservative percentage votes of around 68%. Also North Warwickshire and Rossendale. North Warwickshire definitely. Rossendale is still a less than 10k majority and therefore not totally safe in my view. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 23, 2019 19:29:10 GMT
A majority of the population do not regard themselves as being in any way attached to any political party, and that percentage continues to rise. They have preferences, of course, but they are weaker; conditional. The extreme electoral volatility of the past decade is unlikely to go away and is actually quite likely to intensify. Methods and models of electoral analysis that are based around the idea that the electorate is formed of discrete, solid blocks that do not move around much are not now of great value.
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Post by greenhert on Dec 23, 2019 19:34:13 GMT
No, this was not quite a national landslide. The majority was not close to 100 and furthermore a lot of seats trending Labour were not recaptured (e.g. only two of the Conservatives' 2015 losses to Labour were recaptured by the Conservatives this year, namely Dewsbury and Wolverhampton South West).
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