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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 25, 2019 13:45:17 GMT
Except that you have the parties the wrong way around. Labour supporters voted tactically for the Lib Dems then. You seriously think the Lib Dems would give up the ghost here because some freakish results in the last couple of elections put them behind Labour? No one is suggesting the Lib Dems would just stand down just because they did badly. I'm not suggesting that. What I am suggesting is that given the strong Toryness of Herefordshire and the fact only one of the opposition can get in, it's a possibility (not a certainty) that the local LDs and Labs team up. This wasn't my idea, it was the idea of some Brits I showed this map to... In the absence of such a thing the result would be a pretty certain 2 CON in every year since 2005. It would have been one Conservative and one Liberal (Democrat) at every election* up to and including 2010 and going back 150 years previously. That would have been the case without Labour even needing to stand aside but in the event that one party were to do so, it would certainly be them. In the event that there was a two-way contest between Conservative and Labour, there's every likelihood that the Conservatives would have won both seats *Edit: excepting several elections in the 1950s and 1960s.. Bristol (4-seater in both versions) is a textbook case of thresholds having great effect on the result. In 2017, both the Greens and LDs miss the cut, leaving Labour mightily having 3 of 4 seats. In 2015, things aren't probably that much different, though if I had to guess the LDs were overall closer to getting in in 2015. Still, this constituency is a bright spot for Labour. I'd presume in 2010 the result is 1 LD 1 CON 2 LAB? I don't want you to think I'm getting at you, but why do you have to 'guess' and why would you 'presume'. The city of Bristol is currently wholly contained within four whole constituencies. It is a straightforward enough matter to work out the aggregate votes for each party across the city in each of those elections and then apply D'Hondt divisors (or whatever system it is). It only becomes a matter of speculation if you engage in the fruitless exercise of second-guessing how people might have voted in a different system. As I said, it goes without saying that some people would vote differently in the context of a different voting system (for example, presumably many more people in North Norfolk would vote Labour as opposed to Lib Dem than do so under FPTP) but as there is no effective way of quantifying it, its best not to bother trying. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 25, 2019 21:36:34 GMT
Incidentally, Bristol: 2010 - 2 LD 1 Lab 1 Con. 2015 - 2 Lab 1 Con 1 Grn
(2017 as you say 3 Lab 1 Con)
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Post by tiberius on Oct 25, 2019 22:26:52 GMT
No one is suggesting the Lib Dems would just stand down just because they did badly. I'm not suggesting that. What I am suggesting is that given the strong Toryness of Herefordshire and the fact only one of the opposition can get in, it's a possibility (not a certainty) that the local LDs and Labs team up. This wasn't my idea, it was the idea of some Brits I showed this map to... In the absence of such a thing the result would be a pretty certain 2 CON in every year since 2005. It would have been one Conservative and one Liberal (Democrat) at every election* up to and including 2010 and going back 150 years previously. That would have been the case without Labour even needing to stand aside but in the event that one party were to do so, it would certainly be them. In the event that there was a two-way contest between Conservative and Labour, there's every likelihood that the Conservatives would have won both seats *Edit: excepting several elections in the 1950s and 1960s.. Bristol (4-seater in both versions) is a textbook case of thresholds having great effect on the result. In 2017, both the Greens and LDs miss the cut, leaving Labour mightily having 3 of 4 seats. In 2015, things aren't probably that much different, though if I had to guess the LDs were overall closer to getting in in 2015. Still, this constituency is a bright spot for Labour. I'd presume in 2010 the result is 1 LD 1 CON 2 LAB? I don't want you to think I'm getting at you, but why do you have to 'guess' and why would you 'presume'. The city of Bristol is currently wholly contained within four whole constituencies. It is a straightforward enough matter to work out the aggregate votes for each party across the city in each of those elections and then apply D'Hondt divisors (or whatever system it is). It only becomes a matter of speculation if you engage in the fruitless exercise of second-guessing how people might have voted in a different system. As I said, it goes without saying that some people would vote differently in the context of a different voting system (for example, presumably many more people in North Norfolk would vote Labour as opposed to Lib Dem than do so under FPTP) but as there is no effective way of quantifying it, its best not to bother trying. At the moment I couldn't check the numbers exactly due to computer difficulties. I was working off what I knew - LDs lost votes overall from 2015 and 2017. |
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