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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 23, 2019 19:08:37 GMT
You can have an open list with D'Hondt. The other main flaw is where you have a big disparity in the size of regions eg the North East with 3 seats South East with 10. This can be solved by having roughly equal sized electoral areas (i'd suggest 5-7 seats which would fit in around most county boundaries) Here's one I made earlier  2010 notional results (assuming everybody cast their vote the same way, which they wouldn't have done obvs) | | Total seats | Con | Lab | LD | Nat | | | | | | | | | Highlands & Islands | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | | Aberdeen & Angus | 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | | Forth | 7 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | | Strathclyde | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | | Glasgow | 6 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | | Lanarkshire | 7 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | | Ayrshire & Galloway | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | | Lothian | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | Edinburgh | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | | | | | | | | | Scotland | 56 | 9 | 26 | 11 | 10 | | | | | | | | | Clwyd-Gwynedd | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | | Dyfed-Powys | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | Glamorgan | 9 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | | Cardiff | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Gwent | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | | | | Wales | 32 | 9 | 14 | 6 | 3 | | | | | | | | | Northumberland | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | | | Tyne & Wear | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | | | Durham | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | | | Cleveland | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | Cumbria | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | | | North Lancashire | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | | | East Lancashire | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | | | West Lancashire | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | | | Liverpool | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | | | Warrington-St Helens | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | | | Bolton-Bury-Wigan | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | | | Oldham-Rochdale | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | | | Manchester | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | | | East Cheshire | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | | | West Cheshire | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | North Yorkshire | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | | | East Yorkshire | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | | | Leeds | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | | | Bradford-Halifax | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | | | Wakefield-Huddersfield | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | | | Barnsley-Doncaster-Rotherham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | | | Sheffield | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | | | | | | | | | | Lindsey | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | | | Lincoln, Holland & Kesteven | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | | | North Nottinghamshire | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | | | Nottingham | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | | | North Derbyshire | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | | | Derby | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | | | Leicester | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | | | Leicestershire & Rutland | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | | | Northamptonshire | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | Warwickshire | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | | | Coventry & Solihull | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | | | Birmingham | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | | | Wolverhamton & Walsall | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | | | Sandwell & Dudley | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | | | South Staffordshire | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | | | North Staffordshire | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | | | Shropshire | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | | | Hereford & Worcester | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | | | | | | | | | | Norfolk | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | | | Suffolk | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | | | Cambridgshire | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | | | North Essex | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | | | South Essex | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | | | East Hertfordshire | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | | | West Hertfordshire | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | | | Bedfordshire | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | Buckinghamshire | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | | | Berkshire | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | | | Oxfordshire | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | | | East Surrey | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | | | West Surrey | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | | | East Kent | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | | | West Kent | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | | | East Sussex | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | | | West Sussex | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | | | North Hampshire | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | | | West Hampshire | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | | | South Hampshire | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | | | | | | | | | | Gloucestershire | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | | | Bristol | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | | | Wiltshire | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | | | Dorset | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | | | Somerset | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | | | North Devon | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | | | South Devon | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | | | Cornwall | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | | | | | | | | | | West Essex | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | | | London East Inner | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | | | London Central | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | | | East Middlesex | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | | | Central Middlesex | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | | | West Middlesex | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | | | London South | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | | | London South Inner | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | | | London South East | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | | | | | | | | | | England | 545 | 243 | 171 | 131 | | | | | | | | | | GB | 633 | 261 | 211 | 148 | 13 |
| | Total Seats | DUP | UUP | .SF... | SDLP | ALL | | | | | | | | | | Antrim | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | Down & Armagh | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Londonderry, Fermanagh & Tyrone | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | Northern Ireland | 17 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
Same system based on 2015 election Con 274 +13 Lab 225 +14 UKIP 72 +72 SNP 33 +23 LD 26 -122 PC 3 nc NI 17 Surprisingly no seats for the Greens - they just missed out on the last seat in East Sussex. Labour won all 6 seats in Liverpool. Lib Dems win no seats in the East and West Midlands |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,840 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Oct 23, 2019 19:11:39 GMT
On a similar theme, is it this forum where we have a British Empire Parliament thread?* New numbers from elections in Canadadada to add in!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 23, 2019 19:15:24 GMT
On a similar theme, is it this forum where we have a British Empire Parliament thread?* New numbers from elections in Canadadada to add in! Yes indeed. Also the most recent New Zealand election and possibly even one or two others. I might wait until the (hopefully imminent) UK election is done and do the lot. Hopefully the Canadian results will move the right closer to a majority again, but given the concentration of the increase in Tory support in areas they were already ahead, I doubt there'll be too many gains and of course we've lost ground in NZ |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 23, 2019 19:18:26 GMT
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Post by tiberius on Oct 24, 2019 6:20:18 GMT
FFS I've been working on something along these lines for weeks (but Brexit and other personal stuff sidetracked me)! tbf my results are based on 100 constituencies using d'Hondt distribution giving 600 MPs. I dont have a fancy map like you do though, just excel spreadsheets. How did you create your bespoke map? Excel 2003 (formulas and all) and MS Paint with a Windows XP desktop computer, together with Boundary Assistant. |
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Post by tiberius on Oct 24, 2019 6:23:14 GMT
How have you ended up with Labour winning half or more (can't tell if its supposed to include the IOW) in West Hampshire? map error. Meant to put it down as 5 CON 3 LAB 1 LD. The Isle of Wight itself is a separate constituency electing 1 member in the full-Ireland version and 2 in the NI-only one. |
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Post by tiberius on Oct 25, 2019 12:26:44 GMT
correction re: Berkshire - 1) the LDs broke 10 percent and came closer to a seat in 2017 than I thought (while still missing), and I underestimated the diferential between the vote margin for Labour in Slough and Reading vs the Tory margin elsewhere. It's still 5-3.
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Post by tiberius on Oct 25, 2019 12:37:01 GMT
Herefordshire (a 2-seater in both versions) is an interesting case on this map because the Conservatives have the votes for two seats if the opposition is disunified and uncoordinated but unable to sweep both seats if the LDs and LAB work together. I am operating on the assumption that the local Laborites and Lib Dems have some working arrangement here in order to prevent a Tory sweep, which would not be in neither of their interest. Maybe it's an alternation? With Labour taking the seat in 2017 but LDs getting it in 2015?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 25, 2019 12:39:25 GMT
Yeah I can really see the Lib Dems standing aside for Labour in Herefordshire  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 25, 2019 12:41:21 GMT
You could make all kinds of weird assumptions on that basis. Why not just present the results as they were, based on the last election. There's always the caveat that 'people would vote differently if the system was different' which hardly even needs stating
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Post by tiberius on Oct 25, 2019 12:42:48 GMT
Northumberland (3-seater in both versions), would presumably be 1 LD 1 CON 1 LAB in 2010 but become 2 CON 1 LAB in 2015 and 2017. The big game here is - do the Lib Dems reach the threshold? And who leads the poll? Because if they miss the threshold it's a second seat for whoever does. In 2015 and 2017 it's my understanding that the Tories would achieve this but that'd be something more marginal anyway, taking into account tactical voting and all amidst the threshold. (though this tactical voting is already baked in the results since it'd be indistinguishable from tactical voting we already see under FPTP)
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Post by tiberius on Oct 25, 2019 12:45:04 GMT
Yeah I can really see the Lib Dems standing aside for Labour in Herefordshire Look to Spain's recent elections for coordination among minority parties in PR constituencies with small magnitudes. It could happen here too. Perhaps the "Laborite" that was selected was in fact a cross-breed between red and orange... |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 25, 2019 12:49:17 GMT
Yeah I can really see the Lib Dems standing aside for Labour in Herefordshire Look to Spain's recent elections for coordination among minority parties in PR constituencies with small magnitudes. It could happen here too. No thanks. I think i'll look at the patterns of partisan support in Herefordshire since forever until only the last (almost certainly aberrant) decade. I suspect that is going to tell me a bit more about how any PR election is going to work in Herefordshire than whatever happens in Spain |
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Post by tiberius on Oct 25, 2019 12:53:35 GMT
Look to Spain's recent elections for coordination among minority parties in PR constituencies with small magnitudes. It could happen here too. No thanks. I think i'll look at the patterns of partisan support in Herefordshire since forever until only the last (almost certainly aberrant) decade. I suspect that is going to tell me a bit more about how any PR election is going to work in Herefordshire than whatever happens in Spain It's not all that different from what happened in regards to tactical voting in 1997 though? Except here you have a tactical "joint candidate" of sorts instead of a candidate from both with only one really benefiting... I'm not saying this would be a common thing either. It's only even the radar because without it, the Tories almost certainly sweep both seats in Herefordshire. It's fairly true blue of an area anyway. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 25, 2019 12:57:07 GMT
No thanks. I think i'll look at the patterns of partisan support in Herefordshire since forever until only the last (almost certainly aberrant) decade. I suspect that is going to tell me a bit more about how any PR election is going to work in Herefordshire than whatever happens in Spain It's not all that different from what happened in regards to tactical voting in 1997 though? Except that you have the parties the wrong way around. Labour supporters voted tactically for the Lib Dems then. You seriously think the Lib Dems would give up the ghost here because some freakish results in the last couple of elections put them behind Labour? |
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Post by tiberius on Oct 25, 2019 13:02:21 GMT
It's not all that different from what happened in regards to tactical voting in 1997 though? Except that you have the parties the wrong way around. Labour supporters voted tactically for the Lib Dems then. You seriously think the Lib Dems would give up the ghost here because some freakish results in the last couple of elections put them behind Labour? No one is suggesting the Lib Dems would just stand down just because they did badly. I'm not suggesting that. What I am suggesting is that given the strong Toryness of Herefordshire and the fact only one of the opposition can get in, it's a possibility (not a certainty) that the local LDs and Labs team up. This wasn't my idea, it was the idea of some Brits I showed this map to... In the absence of such a thing the result would be a pretty certain 2 CON in every year since 2005. |
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Post by tiberius on Oct 25, 2019 13:14:23 GMT
Bristol (4-seater in both versions) is a textbook case of thresholds having great effect on the result. In 2017, both the Greens and LDs miss the cut, leaving Labour mightily having 3 of 4 seats. In 2015, things aren't probably that much different, though if I had to guess the LDs were overall closer to getting in in 2015. Still, this constituency is a bright spot for Labour. I'd presume in 2010 the result is 1 LD 1 CON 2 LAB?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 25, 2019 13:45:17 GMT
Except that you have the parties the wrong way around. Labour supporters voted tactically for the Lib Dems then. You seriously think the Lib Dems would give up the ghost here because some freakish results in the last couple of elections put them behind Labour? No one is suggesting the Lib Dems would just stand down just because they did badly. I'm not suggesting that. What I am suggesting is that given the strong Toryness of Herefordshire and the fact only one of the opposition can get in, it's a possibility (not a certainty) that the local LDs and Labs team up. This wasn't my idea, it was the idea of some Brits I showed this map to... In the absence of such a thing the result would be a pretty certain 2 CON in every year since 2005. It would have been one Conservative and one Liberal (Democrat) at every election* up to and including 2010 and going back 150 years previously. That would have been the case without Labour even needing to stand aside but in the event that one party were to do so, it would certainly be them. In the event that there was a two-way contest between Conservative and Labour, there's every likelihood that the Conservatives would have won both seats *Edit: excepting several elections in the 1950s and 1960s.. Bristol (4-seater in both versions) is a textbook case of thresholds having great effect on the result. In 2017, both the Greens and LDs miss the cut, leaving Labour mightily having 3 of 4 seats. In 2015, things aren't probably that much different, though if I had to guess the LDs were overall closer to getting in in 2015. Still, this constituency is a bright spot for Labour. I'd presume in 2010 the result is 1 LD 1 CON 2 LAB? I don't want you to think I'm getting at you, but why do you have to 'guess' and why would you 'presume'. The city of Bristol is currently wholly contained within four whole constituencies. It is a straightforward enough matter to work out the aggregate votes for each party across the city in each of those elections and then apply D'Hondt divisors (or whatever system it is). It only becomes a matter of speculation if you engage in the fruitless exercise of second-guessing how people might have voted in a different system. As I said, it goes without saying that some people would vote differently in the context of a different voting system (for example, presumably many more people in North Norfolk would vote Labour as opposed to Lib Dem than do so under FPTP) but as there is no effective way of quantifying it, its best not to bother trying. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 25, 2019 21:36:34 GMT
Incidentally, Bristol: 2010 - 2 LD 1 Lab 1 Con. 2015 - 2 Lab 1 Con 1 Grn
(2017 as you say 3 Lab 1 Con)
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Post by tiberius on Oct 25, 2019 22:26:52 GMT
No one is suggesting the Lib Dems would just stand down just because they did badly. I'm not suggesting that. What I am suggesting is that given the strong Toryness of Herefordshire and the fact only one of the opposition can get in, it's a possibility (not a certainty) that the local LDs and Labs team up. This wasn't my idea, it was the idea of some Brits I showed this map to... In the absence of such a thing the result would be a pretty certain 2 CON in every year since 2005. It would have been one Conservative and one Liberal (Democrat) at every election* up to and including 2010 and going back 150 years previously. That would have been the case without Labour even needing to stand aside but in the event that one party were to do so, it would certainly be them. In the event that there was a two-way contest between Conservative and Labour, there's every likelihood that the Conservatives would have won both seats *Edit: excepting several elections in the 1950s and 1960s.. Bristol (4-seater in both versions) is a textbook case of thresholds having great effect on the result. In 2017, both the Greens and LDs miss the cut, leaving Labour mightily having 3 of 4 seats. In 2015, things aren't probably that much different, though if I had to guess the LDs were overall closer to getting in in 2015. Still, this constituency is a bright spot for Labour. I'd presume in 2010 the result is 1 LD 1 CON 2 LAB? I don't want you to think I'm getting at you, but why do you have to 'guess' and why would you 'presume'. The city of Bristol is currently wholly contained within four whole constituencies. It is a straightforward enough matter to work out the aggregate votes for each party across the city in each of those elections and then apply D'Hondt divisors (or whatever system it is). It only becomes a matter of speculation if you engage in the fruitless exercise of second-guessing how people might have voted in a different system. As I said, it goes without saying that some people would vote differently in the context of a different voting system (for example, presumably many more people in North Norfolk would vote Labour as opposed to Lib Dem than do so under FPTP) but as there is no effective way of quantifying it, its best not to bother trying. At the moment I couldn't check the numbers exactly due to computer difficulties. I was working off what I knew - LDs lost votes overall from 2015 and 2017. |
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