|
|
Post by tiberius on Oct 23, 2019 0:45:13 GMT
Details incoming. 650 seats.
I have already done 2017 but I'm interested in seeing what previous elections would look like under this...
|
|
|
|
Post by tiberius on Oct 23, 2019 13:49:37 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by tiberius on Oct 23, 2019 14:03:03 GMT
the constituencies in NI could easily be altered to fit the present shape of NI as well. Down, Antrim, and then the rest of NI. Presumably the latter two would be 6-seaters and Down would be a 5-seater but the removal of the rest of Ireland from the scheme would lower the quota.
UPDATE: ok so the West Ulster constituency is now a 7-seater, Antrim is a 6-seater, and Down is a 5-seater.
|
|
|
|
Post by tiberius on Oct 23, 2019 14:14:06 GMT
The Unionists got elected how exactly in County Cork? this was based off of Dail results. The Unionist party is basically FG+UUP in terms of voter base. |
|
|
|
Post by greatkingrat on Oct 23, 2019 14:16:24 GMT
Presumably he is counting Fine Gael as Unionist and Fianna Fail as Center.
|
|
|
|
Post by therealriga on Oct 23, 2019 14:20:16 GMT
Bit of inconsistency there. Why base Northern Ireland on the pre-1974 counties but the mainland on post-1974 LGDs? It should be one or the other. Also, why bother including the rest of Ireland at all?
If it's party list PR why the 9-seat limit?
|
|
|
|
Post by tiberius on Oct 23, 2019 14:34:05 GMT
Bit of inconsistency there. Why base Northern Ireland on the pre-1974 counties but the mainland on post-1974 LGDs? It should be one or the other. Also, why bother including the rest of Ireland at all? If it's party list PR why the 9-seat limit? I actually was really faithful to counties on both sides of the Irish Sea. Herefordshire is its own district and while counties may be subdivided none of the districts cross county lines. Scotland had to be based off council areas but I tried my best, i.e. by keeping Ayrshire whole and all. My base map had all of Ireland on it so I went with including all of Ireland but I'm including results for versions: both all of Ireland and just NI. I wanted to keep the districts smaller as to try to keep things a bit more recognizable. Smaller seat magnitudes mean higher de facto thresholds which means that it's harder for new parties to actually win seats. Furthermore with this arrangement (no nationwide threshold but a district-specific threshold that is hard to reach for established players), you have interesting side-effects with lists not reaching the threshold and all. Overall this makes for a "big two"-friendly variant of PR. |
|
|
|
Post by tiberius on Oct 23, 2019 16:30:49 GMT
Two districts will be altered in the NI-only version of the constituencies. East Yorkshire is split into one constituency covering North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire districts (3-seater), and another covering the districts of Hull and the East Riding of Yorkshire (6-seater).
|
|
|
|
Post by tiberius on Oct 23, 2019 16:46:10 GMT
Additionally, Kent now has 3 constituencies: 5-seater East Kent (Canterbury, Swale, Thanet, and Dover), 5-seater South Kent (Shepway, Ashford, Maidstone, and Tunbridge Wells), and 7-seater West Kent (Tonbridge and Malling, Sevenoaks, Dartford, Gravesham, and Medway).
|
|
|
|
Post by Richard Cromwell on Oct 23, 2019 17:06:50 GMT
Whilst the graphical presentation would probably induce a heart attack in anyone with trypophobia, I have to admit the premise is intriguing.
|
|
|
|
Post by tiberius on Oct 23, 2019 17:38:23 GMT
Additionally there are constituencies that gain in seat magnitude while the boundaries themselves remain unchanged in the NI-only version...educated guesses on likely effects on 2017 election results alongside
Isle of Wight (1>2) LD+1
Salford and Trafford (4>5) LAB+1
South Derbyshire (4>5) ultra marginal CON+1
Newcastle-upon-Tyne (4>5) CON+1
Somerset (5>6) LAB+1
Cornwall (5>6) CON+1
Durham and Darlington (6>7) LAB+1
Tameside, Oldham, and Rochdale (6>7) CON+1
North Wales (6>7) LAB+1
Oxfordshire (6>7) CON+1
Sunderland and Gateshead (6>7) LAB+1
Gloucestershire (6>7) CON+1
Leeds (7>8) LAB+1
Lincolnshire (7>8) CON+1
Suffolk (7>8) LAB+1
Aberdeenshire (7>8) SNP+1
Wakefield and Kirklees (7>8) CON+1
Buckinghamshire (7>8) I guess LAB+1?
Western Valleys and Swansea (7>8) LAB+1
Liverpool and Wirral (7>8) not sure, maybe LAB+1?
Merton, Kingston, and Wandsworth (7>8) CON+1
Sheffield and Barnsley (7>8) CON+1
Wigan, Bolton, and Bury (7>8) CON+1
Bromley, Bexley, and Greenwich (7>8) CON+1
Brent, Harrow, Barnet (7>8) CON+1
Cambridgeshire (7>8) LAB+1
Berkshire (8>9) CON+1
North Yorkshire (8>9) CON+1
West Sussex (8>9) CON+1
North Essex (8>9) CON+1
the bulk of the upside goes to the Conservatives which suggests in general the numbers in 2017 were more favorable for Labour under the older constituency magnitudes than the newer ones.
|
|
|
|
Post by nobodyimportant on Oct 23, 2019 17:41:16 GMT
Interesting that Berkshire is 4 Con 4 Lab - I'd have thought it would be either 5 Con 3 Lab or 4 Con 3 Lab 1 LD... I suppose Slough skews it quite a bit.
|
|
|
|
Post by tiberius on Oct 23, 2019 17:46:16 GMT
Interesting that Berkshire is 4 Con 4 Lab - I'd have thought it would be either 5 Con 3 Lab or 4 Con 3 Lab 1 LD... I suppose Slough skews it quite a bit. Labour's in a situation in which they find it very, very hard to equal the Tories in votes in Berkshire but are close enough that they can tie in seats. (I would hazard a guess that in 2015 with Labour's majority being smaller in Slough then the split is 5 CON-3 LAB) It should be noted though this map's behavior is very two-party-oriented because 2017 was - perfect storm induced by 2015 and 2017 LDs missing the threshold in a whole ton of constituencies. 2010 would be very, very different. No party remotely close to a majority by themselves. A coalition would be inevitable. |
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Oct 23, 2019 17:46:30 GMT
Interesting that Berkshire is 4 Con 4 Lab - I'd have thought it would be either 5 Con 3 Lab or 4 Con 3 Lab 1 LD... I suppose Slough skews it quite a bit. You could say it sloughs it. |
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,840 
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Oct 23, 2019 18:22:12 GMT
Based on counties, not based of off of off off of counties.
|
|
|
|
Post by Richard Cromwell on Oct 23, 2019 18:26:48 GMT
Based on counties, not based of off of off off of counties. Well he could of done it differently.  |
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Oct 23, 2019 18:37:43 GMT
Additionally there are constituencies that gain in seat magnitude while the boundaries themselves remain unchanged in the NI-only version...educated guesses on likely effects on 2017 election results alongside Isle of Wight (1>2) LD+1 Salford and Trafford (4>5) LAB+1 South Derbyshire (4>5) ultra marginal CON+1 Newcastle-upon-Tyne (4>5) CON+1 Somerset (5>6) LAB+1 Cornwall (5>6) CON+1 Durham and Darlington (6>7) LAB+1 Tameside, Oldham, and Rochdale (6>7) CON+1 North Wales (6>7) LAB+1 Oxfordshire (6>7) CON+1 Sunderland and Gateshead (6>7) LAB+1 Gloucestershire (6>7) CON+1 Leeds (7>8) LAB+1 Lincolnshire (7>8) CON+1 Suffolk (7>8) LAB+1 Aberdeenshire (7>8) SNP+1 Wakefield and Kirklees (7>8) CON+1 Buckinghamshire (7>8) I guess LAB+1? Western Valleys and Swansea (7>8) LAB+1 Liverpool and Wirral (7>8) not sure, maybe LAB+1? Merton, Kingston, and Wandsworth (7>8) CON+1 Sheffield and Barnsley (7>8) CON+1 Wigan, Bolton, and Bury (7>8) CON+1 Bromley, Bexley, and Greenwich (7>8) CON+1 Brent, Harrow, Barnet (7>8) CON+1 Cambridgeshire (7>8) LAB+1 Berkshire (8>9) CON+1 North Yorkshire (8>9) CON+1 West Sussex (8>9) CON+1 North Essex (8>9) CON+1 the bulk of the upside goes to the Conservatives which suggests in general the numbers in 2017 were more favorable for Labour under the older constituency magnitudes than the newer ones. I suspect the Greens would be throwing the kitchen sink at the Isle of Wight, since the second seat could be manageable for them. |
|
|
|
Post by manchesterman on Oct 23, 2019 19:01:42 GMT
FFS I've been working on something along these lines for weeks (but Brexit and other personal stuff sidetracked me)!
tbf my results are based on 100 constituencies using d'Hondt distribution giving 600 MPs. I dont have a fancy map like you do though, just excel spreadsheets. How did you create your bespoke map?
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 23, 2019 19:04:33 GMT
How have you ended up with Labour winning half or more (can't tell if its supposed to include the IOW) in West Hampshire?
|
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,840
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Oct 23, 2019 19:08:26 GMT
Based on counties, not based of off of off off of counties. Well he could of done it differently. crriingggee!!!  |
|
