Prediction competition form guide

[Pete Whitehead]

This is the Situations thing but he doesn't seem keen to do it for some reason. IIRC there was a rolling tally for the last three months. The prediction competition has now been running properly on this site since April which gives us six months worth of data.
First here is a table displaying the points won in each month by each competitor. 10 points for 1st place, 9 for 2nd and so on down to 1 point for 10th

	April	May	June	July	Aug	Sept
Andrew Teale			10	9	4	10
andyajs	7	8	4	1	7
Arthur Figgis
Catholicleft
danlew	5
David Boothroyd	4		3	4		4
dibs	3
EastAnglianLefty						7
Erlend					2
greatkingrat	2	10	9	8		9
Hempie		4	6	3	5	5
Ianrobo			1
IndependentUKIP					3
Khunanup				6	10
Kristofer Kean
leicesterlad	1	7
Mark Senior	8	1	5	2	1	1
Pete Whitehead	9	5	7	10	6	8
phildav76		6		5	8
Piperdave
Robert Waller	6	3	8	7	9	2
Safc26		9
strinity						6
Tomo
Tonyotim	10	2	2			3

The first time that we could have had a 'rolling total' was at the end of June which would aggregate the scores from April, May and June
At this point the scores would have been:

	apr-jun
greatkingrat	21
Pete Whitehead	21
andyajs	19
Robert Waller	17
Mark Senior	14
Tonyotim	14
Andrew Teale	10
Hempie	10
Safc26	9
leicesterlad	8
David Boothroyd	7
phildav76	6
danlew	5
dibs	3
Ianrobo	1

Then in July, with the April figures falling off:

	may-july
greatkingrat	27
Pete Whitehead	22
Andrew Teale	19
Robert Waller	18
Hempie	13
andyajs	13
phildav76	11
Safc26	9
Mark Senior	8
David Boothroyd	7
leicesterlad	7
Khunanup	6
Tonyotim	4
Ianrobo	1

Gkr had done poorly in April so although I won in July he pulled ahead as he improved strongly on that performance while my 10 points represented only a small improvement compared with then.
In August Gkr opted out and paid the price with Robert Waller pulling ahead following a run of three good months

	june-aug
Robert Waller	24
Pete Whitehead	23
Andrew Teale	23
greatkingrat	17
Khunanup	16
Hempie	14
phildav76	13
andyajs	12
Mark Senior	8
David Boothroyd	7
IndependentUKIP	3
Tonyotim	2
Erlend	2
Ianrobo	1

Which brings us to the end of this month

	july-sept
Pete Whitehead	24
Andrew Teale	23
Robert Waller	18
greatkingrat	17
Khunanup	16
Hempie	13
phildav76	13
andyajs	8
David Boothroyd	8
EastAnglianLefty	7
strinity	6
Mark Senior	4
IndependentUKIP	3
Tonyotim	3
Erlend	2

[Pete Whitehead]

This kind of illustrates how many points will be carried over to the end of October so we can see that for example if gkr were to win he would need me to come 6th or lower in order to overtake me whereas Andrew need only come one place ahead of me and so on..

	July	Aug	Sept	Carried to Oct
Pete Whitehead	10	6	8	14
Andrew Teale	9	4	10	14
Robert Waller	7	9	2	11
greatkingrat	8	0	9	9
Khunanup	6	10	0	10
Hempie	3	5	5	10
phildav76	5	8	0	8
andyajs	1	7	0	7
David Boothroyd	4	0	4	4
EastAnglianLefty	0	0	7	7
strinity	0	0	6	6
Mark Senior	2	1	1	2
IndependentUKIP	0	3	0	3
Tonyotim	0	0	3	3
Erlend	0	2	0	2

[Robert Waller]

Thank you very much indeed for doing all this, Pete.

I think it does add to the interest of our little competition, whoever had the idea in the first place.

I did think of doing this myself, but then felt that it might seem immodest given that I would come out of it surprisingly well at the moment ...

I have a suspicion that how well I do is correlated with when the school holidays are!

[Deleted]

Excellent, well done guys. I'm very busy on other projects these days but pleased to see this being done.

[Robert Waller]

I for one would be interested to see this updated with the October results.
Pete still ahead, of course, with phildav up to 3rd?

[Pete Whitehead]

I did actually work out some numbers on the friday but didn;t save the spreadsheet. I thought it might be immodest I do remember that Andrew was one point behind me. Think you may have been third but Phil cerianly moved up quite a lot of places. Will be interesting next month when GKR and Tonyotim's August absence will be wiped clean and also the new rising stars EAL and strinity will have had a full run of three months competing

[Robert Waller]

How about this?

Pete Whitehead 24
Andrew Teale 21
Phildav 17
Robert Waller 16
strinity 12
Greatkingrat 12
khunanup 10
hempie 10
Kristofer Keane 8
East Anglian Lefty 7
andyajs 7
Mark Senior 6
Tonyotim 5
David Boothroyd 5
Ind UKIP 3
erlend 2

[Pete Whitehead]

Is that how it was? I'm sure you're right but I will update my spreadsheet at some point and check. Of course on my last point on the previous post, I had forgotten that EAL failed to enter last week so he didn;t come away with any points this month

[Pete Whitehead]

I wonder if this could be moved to the new prediction competition forum Kris?

[Pete Whitehead]

Thanks Kris.

	September	October	Nov/Dec	3 month Total
Pete Whitehead	8	10	10	28
Andrew Teale	10	7	6	23
greatkingrat	9	3	9	21
strinity	6	6	7	19
phildav76	0	9	8	17
Robert Waller	2	5	4	11
Mark Senior	1	4	5	10
Kristofer Keane	0	8	0	8
Tonyotim	3	2	3	8
Hempie	5	0	2	7
EastAnglianLefty	7	0	0	7
David Boothroyd	4	1	0	5
Just Looking	0	0	1	1

Phildave goes into the next month in a strong position. Technically any of the top 5 could become number 1 in January

[Robert Waller]

Pete, I predict that you might rather enjoy presenting an updated table following January's exciting contest ... ! - and others like myself may well appreciate it too.

[Pete Whitehead]

I'm struggling to find the original spreadsheet I worked off. I can work out the numbers easily enough but I don't want to have to create a whole new table

[Pete Whitehead]

Here it is

	...Oct...	Nov/Dec	...Jan...	Total
Pete Whitehead	10	10	10	30
phildav76	9	8	6	23
Andrew Teale	7	6	8	21
greatkingrat	3	9	7	19
Robert Waller	5	4	9	18
strinity	6	7	0	13
Mark Senior	4	5	3	12
Kristofer Keane	8	0	0	8
Hempie	0	2	4	6
Arthur Figgis	0	0	5	5
Tonyotim	2	3	0	5
Just Looking	0	1	0	1
David Boothroyd	1	0	0	1

[Pete Whitehead]

The situtation has become mush tighter following February's contest

	Nov/Dec	Jan	Feb	Total
Pete Whitehead	10	10	4	24
Robert Waller	4	9	10	23
Andrew Teale	6	8	9	23
phildav76	8	6	7	21
greatkingrat	9	7	3	19
Mark Senior	5	3	8	16
Hempie	2	4	6	12
Arthur Figgis	0	5	5	10
strinity	7	0	0	7
Tonyotim	3	0	1	4
East Anglian Lefty	0	0	2	2
Just Looking	1	0	0	1

My chances of holding the top position at the end of March look slim as I defend a large lead from Nov/Dec over the two main challengers. Its possible I drop to fourth or worse. Robert Waler looks favourite to top the table on the basis that he could finish one place behind Andrew Teale and several places behind me and still do so.

[Robert Waller]

Thanks for doing this, Pete, and for the 'prediction' of my success - but I am running ninth in this month's competition, and lightning rarely strikes twice!

[Pete Whitehead]

In the event I think you have come fourth this month which will give you seven points to replace the four which fall off from November/December. This takes you to 26 and of course my own score cannot increase this month (or next) so you will be clearly in the lead. Andrew, Phil and Great kingrat have fallen back a bit. I will do the tables obviously when ME has ruled on the totals for March

[Robert Waller]

Despite my abysmal performance this week ....
.... I am sure this will be for one month only, so I shall enjoy it while it lasts!

[Pete Whitehead]

	Jan...	Feb...	March	..Total..
Robert Waller	9	10	7	26
Pete Whitehead	10	4	10	24
Andrew Teale	8	9	2	19
Mark Senior	3	8	8	19
phildav76	6	7	3	16
Hempie	4	6	5	15
greatkingrat	7	3	4	14
East Anglian Lefty	0	2	9	11
Arthur Figgis	5	5	0	10
Tonyotim	0	1	6	7
Dibs	0	0	1	1

[Pete Whitehead]

Sorry I've not been keeping this up to date. This was the position as of the end of April

	Feb...	March	...April	..Total..
Robert Waller	10	7	8	25
Pete Whitehead	4	10	10	24
Mark Senior	8	8	7	23
phildav76	7	3	6	16
Hempie	6	5	5	16
Tonyotim	1	6	9	16
Andrew Teale	9	2	0	11
East Anglian Lefty	2	9	0	11
greatkingrat	3	4	2	9
Arthur Figgis	5	0	4	9
Justlooking	0	0	3	3
Dibs	0	1	1	2

[Robert Waller]

And now 30 (maximum) for Pete, I think.
Then maybe me on 23, Mark on 22, Tony on 21, Phil on 18 ....?