|
Post by greenhert on Nov 19, 2020 13:40:36 GMT
Does the new Stratford Olympic Park ward has potential of having a strong Conservative or LD vote, given all the new housing built there, in your opinion? The full slate of Labour Members at Newham might come to an end. I doubt it would lean Tory though. Probably more like Penninsula or Greenwich West wards in LB of Greenwich where there has been substantial new housing development. Significant non Labour vote perhaps coalescing around Lib Dems or Greens. Peninsula ward's predicted electorate according to the consultation for new ward boundaries for the Royal Borough of Greenwich is now enough for two 3-member wards all by itself; Greenwich West is considerably oversized as well. Thus, like those oversized wards in Newham, both will be completely redrawn, indirectly to Labour's detriment. Expect substantial political changes in Greenwich for 2022.
|
|
pl
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,565
Member is Online
|
Post by pl on Nov 19, 2020 14:10:46 GMT
Does the new Stratford Olympic Park ward has potential of having a strong Conservative or LD vote, given all the new housing built there, in your opinion? The full slate of Labour Members at Newham might come to an end. I doubt it would lean Tory though. Probably more like Penninsula or Greenwich West wards in LB of Greenwich where there has been substantial new housing development. Significant non Labour vote perhaps coalescing around Lib Dems or Greens. Indeed. New build flats in London rarely benefits the Conservatives. The demographics in the social housing components are normally very heavily weighted against the Conservatives. And then those in the private housing normally have very high proportions of EU nationals and nationals from countries not eligible to vote. The best demographics in the East End for the Conservatives are 80s/90s new build riverside flats and the remaining white working class in (former) social housing.
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Nov 19, 2020 14:14:01 GMT
The full slate of Labour Members at Newham might come to an end. I doubt it would lean Tory though. Probably more like Penninsula or Greenwich West wards in LB of Greenwich where there has been substantial new housing development. Significant non Labour vote perhaps coalescing around Lib Dems or Greens. Indeed. New build flats in London rarely benefits the Conservatives. The demographics in the social housing components are normally very heavily weighted against the Conservatives. And then those in the private housing normally have very high proportions of EU nationals and nationals from countries not eligible to vote. The best demographics in the East End for the Conservatives are 80s/90s new build riverside flats and the remaining white working class in (former) social housing. I seem to remember a discussion on here about some ward during a byelection in which various posters claimed that an influx of middle class professionals would variously benefit all the different parties.
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Nov 19, 2020 14:30:11 GMT
I believe this ward is 100% new housing, the west side of Leyton Road down this end being entirely commercial, and the old housing along Temple Mills Lane having all been knocked down as part of the Olympic Park development. Very rare to see this.
|
|
pl
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,565
Member is Online
|
Post by pl on Nov 19, 2020 15:23:14 GMT
Indeed. New build flats in London rarely benefits the Conservatives. The demographics in the social housing components are normally very heavily weighted against the Conservatives. And then those in the private housing normally have very high proportions of EU nationals and nationals from countries not eligible to vote. The best demographics in the East End for the Conservatives are 80s/90s new build riverside flats and the remaining white working class in (former) social housing. I seem to remember a discussion on here about some ward during a byelection in which various posters claimed that an influx of middle class professionals would variously benefit all the different parties. Funny isn't it! I think it's easy to try and extrapolate a trend from one part of the country to another. If you look at places like Blyth Valley or Bolsover, the new build housing seems to have been very pro-Conservative, as aspirational voters move out of Northern cities. However, in the South East/East of England, new build houses seem to be much less Conservative friendly - I think as these voters have been pushed out of London by high house prices, and contain a higher proportion of EU and non-white voters. When canvassing in the South East/East, I always feel you can make a solid guess that late Victorian/Edwardian houses are likely to have solid LD votes, while 80/90s "Barrat Box/Family Home" housing is always more firmly Conservative, but later houses less pro-Conservative.
|
|
|
Post by evergreenadam on Nov 19, 2020 15:38:56 GMT
I seem to remember a discussion on here about some ward during a byelection in which various posters claimed that an influx of middle class professionals would variously benefit all the different parties. Funny isn't it! I think it's easy to try and extrapolate a trend from one part of the country to another. If you look at places like Blyth Valley or Bolsover, the new build housing seems to have been very pro-Conservative, as aspirational voters move out of Northern cities. However, in the South East/East of England, new build houses seem to be much less Conservative friendly - I think as these voters have been pushed out of London by high house prices, and contain a higher proportion of EU and non-white voters. When canvassing in the South East/East, I always feel you can make a solid guess that late Victorian/Edwardian houses are likely to have solid LD votes, while 80/90s "Barrat Box/Family Home" housing is always more firmly Conservative, but later houses less pro-Conservative. I think a lot depends on the tenure mix as well as the age of the developments. In London the requirements for affordable housing provision usually mean that any large development completed by a house builder in the last 15 years will contain an element of social housing, sometimes up to 50%. By contrast the 80s and 90s developments were often quite mono tenure.
|
|
|
Post by Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells on Nov 19, 2020 19:53:39 GMT
Does the new Stratford Olympic Park ward has potential of having a strong Conservative or LD vote, given all the new housing built there, in your opinion? The full slate of Labour Members at Newham might come to an end. I doubt it would lean Tory though. Probably more like Penninsula or Greenwich West wards in LB of Greenwich where there has been substantial new housing development. Significant non Labour vote perhaps coalescing around Lib Dems or Greens. Peninsula is a better shout actually, there's still a huge chunk of new residential in the Olympic Park, but some of that must be in Hackney or Waltham Forest, thinking about it. I could see that new Olympic Park ward going to the LD's,yes.
|
|
|
Post by Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells on Nov 19, 2020 19:58:01 GMT
I believe this ward is 100% new housing, the west side of Leyton Road down this end being entirely commercial, and the old housing along Temple Mills Lane having all been knocked down as part of the Olympic Park development. Very rare to see this. It's just the commercial nature of the previous site, I imagine there will be similar wards in Brent/ H&F when the Old Oak Common/ Park Royal area is redeveloped in line with HS2.
|
|
|
Post by owainsutton on Nov 19, 2020 20:54:33 GMT
When canvassing in the South East/East, I always feel you can make a solid guess that late Victorian/Edwardian houses are likely to have solid LD votes, while 80/90s "Barrat Box/Family Home" housing is always more firmly Conservative, but later houses less pro-Conservative. Discussing the local situation in Altrincham and southern Trafford in general, a senior local Labour person commented to me "you probably have more potential with the biggest houses than we do". He wasn't wrong.
|
|
|
Post by David Ashforth on Nov 21, 2020 13:50:34 GMT
284 new houses are being built on the the Sheffield (Stocksbridge & Upper Don ward) and Barnsley (Penistone East ward) boundary. 70% of the houses will be in Barnsley but there is no road connection to the rest of Barnsley without a long detour through Sheffield. Sheffield Council would like the boundary changing so the houses (and the council tax) are in Sheffield.
|
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,670
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Nov 21, 2020 16:20:49 GMT
284 new houses are being built on the the Sheffield (Stocksbridge & Upper Don ward) and Barnsley (Penistone East ward) boundary. 70% of the houses will be in Barnsley but there is no road connection to the rest of Barnsley without a long detour through Sheffield. Sheffield Council would like the boundary changing so the houses (and the council tax) are in Sheffield. I've been driving past that site quite a bit recently, and was wondering about the border issues, and whether anythingn had been raised when Barnsley gave planning permission for a development only accessible from Sheffield.
|
|
ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,031
|
Post by ilerda on Nov 21, 2020 16:39:40 GMT
284 new houses are being built on the the Sheffield (Stocksbridge & Upper Don ward) and Barnsley (Penistone East ward) boundary. 70% of the houses will be in Barnsley but there is no road connection to the rest of Barnsley without a long detour through Sheffield. Sheffield Council would like the boundary changing so the houses (and the council tax) are in Sheffield. It’s really not as big a deal as these pseudo-journalists are making it out to be. I know people on all sides (Local gov and the developers) and they’ve been aware of this from the start. There has always been an understanding that a boundary review will take place and that the whole thing will be moved into Sheffield, but they’ve also made contingency arrangements around services and funding in case people move in before the transfer has been completed. These sort of reviews should certainly more common than they are, but the suggestion that it’s a logistical and legal mountain to surmount is definitely not the case in reality. Although I’m not sure why they’ve waited this long to get the ball rolling.
|
|
|
Post by evergreenadam on Nov 21, 2020 17:40:26 GMT
284 new houses are being built on the the Sheffield (Stocksbridge & Upper Don ward) and Barnsley (Penistone East ward) boundary. 70% of the houses will be in Barnsley but there is no road connection to the rest of Barnsley without a long detour through Sheffield. Sheffield Council would like the boundary changing so the houses (and the council tax) are in Sheffield. It’s really not as big a deal as these pseudo-journalists are making it out to be. I know people on all sides (Local gov and the developers) and they’ve been aware of this from the start. There has always been an understanding that a boundary review will take place and that the whole thing will be moved into Sheffield, but they’ve also made contingency arrangements around services and funding in case people move in before the transfer has been completed. These sort of reviews should certainly more common than they are, but the suggestion that it’s a logistical and legal mountain to surmount is definitely not the case in reality. Although I’m not sure why they’ve waited this long to get the ball rolling. If both local authorities are in favour then the LGBCE will carry out an external boundary review.
|
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,670
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Nov 21, 2020 21:24:08 GMT
It’s really not as big a deal as these pseudo-journalists are making it out to be. I know people on all sides (Local gov and the developers) and they’ve been aware of this from the start. There has always been an understanding that a boundary review will take place and that the whole thing will be moved into Sheffield, but they’ve also made contingency arrangements around services and funding in case people move in before the transfer has been completed. These sort of reviews should certainly more common than they are, but the suggestion that it’s a logistical and legal mountain to surmount is definitely not the case in reality. Although I’m not sure why they’ve waited this long to get the ball rolling. If both local authorities are in favour then the LGBCE will carry out an external boundary review. It could be an opportunity to do some commensurate tidying up. There's a few properties in Sheffield that are only accessible from Barnsley, so that could be tweeked at the same time. The simplest adjustment would be to move to the railway line all the way from Deepcar to Oughtibridge. I don't know if this was ever considered in the 1994 review, they did adjust the boundary at Oughtibridge Mill.
|
|
ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,031
|
Post by ilerda on Nov 21, 2020 22:34:20 GMT
It’s really not as big a deal as these pseudo-journalists are making it out to be. I know people on all sides (Local gov and the developers) and they’ve been aware of this from the start. There has always been an understanding that a boundary review will take place and that the whole thing will be moved into Sheffield, but they’ve also made contingency arrangements around services and funding in case people move in before the transfer has been completed. These sort of reviews should certainly more common than they are, but the suggestion that it’s a logistical and legal mountain to surmount is definitely not the case in reality. Although I’m not sure why they’ve waited this long to get the ball rolling. If both local authorities are in favour then the LGBCE will carry out an external boundary review. Yes, and what I’m saying is it’s going to happen because it was always part of the plan for it to happen. The article is trying to make something out of nothing.
|
|
|
Post by lancastrian on Nov 22, 2020 1:03:23 GMT
If both local authorities are in favour then the LGBCE will carry out an external boundary review. Yes, and what I’m saying is it’s going to happen because it was always part of the plan for it to happen. The article is trying to make something out of nothing. It should happen but how many of these reviews have the LGBCE actually carried out? Buckshaw is still split between Chorley and South Ribble 20 years after the plans first appeared.
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 22, 2020 1:20:29 GMT
Thamesmead crosses the London Boroughs of Greenwich and Bexley and that's been there well over half a century.
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Nov 22, 2020 8:19:27 GMT
I can give two examples where it has happened. The Frankley estate split between Birmingham and Bromsgrove was moved wholesale to Birmingham, and an estate in Cricklewood split between Camden & Barnet was moved into Camden.
I think there is another development going up split between Coventry and Warwick that may be moved, presumably into Coventry.
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Nov 22, 2020 9:23:28 GMT
I can give two examples where it has happened. The Frankley estate split between Birmingham and Bromsgrove was moved wholesale to Birmingham, and an estate in Cricklewood split between Camden & Barnet was moved into Camden. I think there is another development going up split between Coventry and Warwick that may be moved, presumably into Coventry. The Church Langley development in Harlow was built on land which was then in Epping Forest council.
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Nov 22, 2020 9:46:44 GMT
I can give two examples where it has happened. The Frankley estate split between Birmingham and Bromsgrove was moved wholesale to Birmingham, and an estate in Cricklewood split between Camden & Barnet was moved into Camden. I think there is another development going up split between Coventry and Warwick that may be moved, presumably into Coventry. The Church Langley development in Harlow was built on land which was then in Epping Forest council. Also Enfield Island Village. It’s incorrect to say that these obvious adjustments don’t happen. The usual reason they don’t is that residents object, so you need to make the adjustment at the time a new development is built. Longstanding historical anomalies are much more difficult to correct. Then of course we have the familiar NIMBY experience of a District Council furiously fighting the expansion of a neighbouring town outside its restricted boundaries. Stevenage being the obvious example.
|
|