Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 18, 2022 19:22:41 GMT
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Post by greatkingrat on Aug 18, 2022 21:55:51 GMT
The review into local government boundaries in Northern Ireland concluded recently. I had my suggestion for a very minor change around Bangor accepted, incidentally. By the by, "Due to the limited time between my Review and the next council elections, the Department for Communities will not make an order to give effect to my Final Recommendations Report until after the next local government elections scheduled in May 2023. Therefore the establishment of an independent DEA Review process will not be commenced by the Northern Ireland Office until after May 2023." Just because you had a suggestion accepted doesn't mean you can refer to "my Final Recommendations Report"!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 18, 2022 21:58:22 GMT
The review into local government boundaries in Northern Ireland concluded recently. I had my suggestion for a very minor change around Bangor accepted, incidentally. By the by, "Due to the limited time between my Review and the next council elections, the Department for Communities will not make an order to give effect to my Final Recommendations Report until after the next local government elections scheduled in May 2023. Therefore the establishment of an independent DEA Review process will not be commenced by the Northern Ireland Office until after May 2023." Just because you had a suggestion accepted doesn't mean you can refer to "my Final Recommendations Report"!
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Post by carolus on Aug 28, 2022 8:43:19 GMT
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Post by loderingo on Sept 2, 2022 22:25:01 GMT
Looking at the Wokingham review it now seems that the commission want a uniform pattern of 3 member wards, even though the existing wards are mixed
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2022 10:19:51 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 6, 2022 10:29:13 GMT
Christ they're going to take some getting used to
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2022 10:34:49 GMT
Christ they're going to take some getting used to Reading all 230-odd paragraphs of the report is going to take me long enough!
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Post by greenhert on Sept 6, 2022 10:42:28 GMT
So many of these single member wards could have been merged. For example, the single member Kirkdale East and Kirkdale West wards could have been combined into a 2-member ward, which is what happened with Garston (initially split into Garston North and Garston South & Cressington).
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 6, 2022 10:42:54 GMT
Christ they're going to take some getting used to Reading all 230-odd paragraphs of the report is going to take me long enough! I'm just going to look at the pictures
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,683
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Post by J.G.Harston on Sept 6, 2022 11:00:06 GMT
Why the random mix of 1/2/3-member wards?
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 7, 2022 11:25:23 GMT
Vote totals in some of the central wards are going to be incredibly small. It looks like Waterfront South is entirely new flats, so I wouldn't be shocked if it's possible to win that one with fewer than a hundred votes.
EDIT: And that was before I looked at the figures. Actually, Waterfront North is the worst - in 2019 it only had 567 electors and whilst it's predicted to have 4035 by 2027, the first election will still be a joke. But all the central wards are expected to see huge rises in electorate and if that lags behind, we can expect pretty serious malapportionment.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2022 13:49:46 GMT
Vote totals in some of the central wards are going to be incredibly small. It looks like Waterfront South is entirely new flats, so I wouldn't be shocked if it's possible to win that one with fewer than a hundred votes. EDIT: And that was before I looked at the figures. Actually, Waterfront North is the worst - in 2019 it only had 567 electors and whilst it's predicted to have 4035 by 2027, the first election will still be a joke. But all the central wards are expected to see huge rises in electorate and if that lags behind, we can expect pretty serious malapportionment. The report says the LibDems think the numbers are completely wrong for that ward in particular.
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Post by greenhert on Sept 7, 2022 15:27:13 GMT
Vote totals in some of the central wards are going to be incredibly small. It looks like Waterfront South is entirely new flats, so I wouldn't be shocked if it's possible to win that one with fewer than a hundred votes. EDIT: And that was before I looked at the figures. Actually, Waterfront North is the worst - in 2019 it only had 567 electors and whilst it's predicted to have 4035 by 2027, the first election will still be a joke. But all the central wards are expected to see huge rises in electorate and if that lags behind, we can expect pretty serious malapportionment. This also highlights why it is almost never appropriate for major cities like Liverpool to have single member wards.
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Post by evergreenadam on Sept 7, 2022 16:12:45 GMT
Vote totals in some of the central wards are going to be incredibly small. It looks like Waterfront South is entirely new flats, so I wouldn't be shocked if it's possible to win that one with fewer than a hundred votes. EDIT: And that was before I looked at the figures. Actually, Waterfront North is the worst - in 2019 it only had 567 electors and whilst it's predicted to have 4035 by 2027, the first election will still be a joke. But all the central wards are expected to see huge rises in electorate and if that lags behind, we can expect pretty serious malapportionment. This also highlights why it is almost never appropriate for major cities like Liverpool to have single member wards. I fully understand the desire to avoid serious electoral imbalances occurring within just a few years of a review having been published but the sheer scale of projected development in some cities risks creating these kind of zombie wards. If the developments are not built out within 5 years then the electoral system becomes skewed in favour of over representation of regeneration areas with low electorates instead of established residential areas with stable electorates. It would be worth LGBCE doing a review to see how long these planned imbalances actually take to work themselves out over the years and whether the current methodology for 5 year electoral projections produces accurate results.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,333
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Post by ricmk on Sept 7, 2022 17:11:48 GMT
We have some of the same issues in Milton Keynes. However as long as the growth is happening it's exactly the right approach. And it balances out very quickly. At our 2014 review, we deliberately had 3 wards which were currently undersized but where growth was expected. The first elections in all 3 had lower numbers (but not to the Waterfront North extent.) However 2 of them are now the largest wards in MK as they have grown out. So any 'easy time' the councillors had with a smaller ward has long gone and they have to cover more people now and with all the issues of new developments being handed over from developers to the Council that come with that.
One is still undersize as the development has slowed, but it's not outrageous, helped by the fact it's a coherent ward boundary throughout.
If they didn't do this, you'd need a further review as soon as the current one had settled.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 7, 2022 19:14:08 GMT
This also highlights why it is almost never appropriate for major cities like Liverpool to have single member wards. I fully understand the desire to avoid serious electoral imbalances occurring within just a few years of a review having been published but the sheer scale of projected development in some cities risks creating these kind of zombie wards. If the developments are not built out within 5 years then the electoral system becomes skewed in favour of over representation of regeneration areas with low electorates instead of established residential areas with stable electorates. It would be worth LGBCE doing a review to see how long these planned imbalances actually take to work themselves out over the years and whether the current methodology for 5 year electoral projections produces accurate results. It doesn't work in all central areas, but in some areas it can be appropriate to avoid single-member wards so that you can pair development sites with more established communities to balance things out.
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Post by evergreenadam on Sept 7, 2022 20:55:24 GMT
We have some of the same issues in Milton Keynes. However as long as the growth is happening it's exactly the right approach. And it balances out very quickly. At our 2014 review, we deliberately had 3 wards which were currently undersized but where growth was expected. The first elections in all 3 had lower numbers (but not to the Waterfront North extent.) However 2 of them are now the largest wards in MK as they have grown out. So any 'easy time' the councillors had with a smaller ward has long gone and they have to cover more people now and with all the issues of new developments being handed over from developers to the Council that come with that. One is still undersize as the development has slowed, but it's not outrageous, helped by the fact it's a coherent ward boundary throughout. If they didn't do this, you'd need a further review as soon as the current one had settled. Agreed, it all depends on build out rates. My experience is that large brownfield sites in cities, especially with contaminated land, will take longer than greenfield. Also there are only so many identical two bedroom flats that developers can release onto the market at any one time without flooding it and causing a glut. The market for family sized houses is probably more stable.
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WJ
Non-Aligned
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Post by WJ on Sept 14, 2022 0:23:37 GMT
Anyone know when Shropshire is next up for a review? Seems like it should be very soon...
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,625
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Post by European Lefty on Sept 14, 2022 12:37:42 GMT
Anyone know when Shropshire is next up for a review? Seems like it should be very soon... They're currently reviewing several councils which have elections in May so not until after those are done I would think
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