J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,604
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Oct 11, 2021 3:48:00 GMT
10% less population than Sheffield, but same number of councillors? Sheffield has 84 councillors, not 85. According to the electoral figures from the LGBCE link pertaining to this review that equates to approximately 4,300 electors per councillor on average judging by Liverpool's forecast electorate. Using that average for Birmingham's 2018 review would have given Birmingham 160 councillors. The rule of thumb is the square root, not the linear average, otherwise - as you've pointed out - Birmingham would have 160 councillors, or 250 is based on Barnsley's average.
Broadly, Sheffield is 2x the size of Barnsley, and has SQR(2) times the councillors, Birmingham is 2x the size of Sheffield and has SQR(2) times the councillors.
But the point being, Liverpool is smaller than Sheffield, why does it have the same (ok, one off) number of councillors? By whatever calculation it should have fewer.
|
|
|
Post by grahammurray on Oct 11, 2021 10:09:49 GMT
Sheffield has 84 councillors, not 85. According to the electoral figures from the LGBCE link pertaining to this review that equates to approximately 4,300 electors per councillor on average judging by Liverpool's forecast electorate. Using that average for Birmingham's 2018 review would have given Birmingham 160 councillors. The rule of thumb is the square root, not the linear average, otherwise - as you've pointed out - Birmingham would have 160 councillors, or 250 is based on Barnsley's average.
Broadly, Sheffield is 2x the size of Barnsley, and has SQR(2) times the councillors, Birmingham is 2x the size of Sheffield and has SQR(2) times the councillors.
But the point being, Liverpool is smaller than Sheffield, why does it have the same (ok, one off) number of councillors? By whatever calculation it should have fewer.
I once heard someone speak on the radio saying that it's the cube root rather than the square root. Maybe they even explained why this is the metric used but if they did I've long forgotten it. I also listened to another explanation at one point that it's based on some sociological measure about the relationship firstly between the elected members and their electorates and then with other members and officers. As the number of councillors rise there's a reduction in one but an increase in the other, and vice versa.
|
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,279
|
Post by YL on Oct 11, 2021 10:40:09 GMT
The rule of thumb is the square root, not the linear average, otherwise - as you've pointed out - Birmingham would have 160 councillors, or 250 is based on Barnsley's average. Broadly, Sheffield is 2x the size of Barnsley, and has SQR(2) times the councillors, Birmingham is 2x the size of Sheffield and has SQR(2) times the councillors. But the point being, Liverpool is smaller than Sheffield, why does it have the same (ok, one off) number of councillors? By whatever calculation it should have fewer.
I once heard someone speak on the radio saying that it's the cube root rather than the square root. Maybe they even explained why this is the metric used but if they did I've long forgotten it. I also listened to another explanation at one point that it's based on some sociological measure about the relationship firstly between the elected members and their electorates and then with other members and officers. As the number of councillors rise there's a reduction in one but an increase in the other, and vice versa. The origin of the "cube root rule" seems to be Rein Taagapera, The size of national assemblies, Social Science Research, Vol. 1, pp385-401, 1972. For a country like the UK the rule would probably be best stated as approximately the cube root of twice the electorate, which for Liverpool's estimated 2027 electorate is remarkably close to 90. How well the assumptions in the paper are actually justified is another matter, though.
|
|
|
Post by rivers10 on Oct 11, 2021 10:45:52 GMT
Liverpool City Council review announced by LGBCE - 85 Councillors instead of 90. Will all the new wards have to be single member or 2 member, like Birmingham? I have just checked the electoral figures and extensive development around Liverpool Docks mean that this will be one massive shake-up in terms of ward boundaries! The city centre wards are overpopulated as you said because of new developments, Riverside especially is way oversized. I expect the Greens will be hoping for an entirely city centre based, student heavy ward to emerge that they would be competitive in Redevelopments in Garston (Speke-Garston) and Norris Green mean those two wards are very oversized as well The big losers will be several inner city terraced wards most notably Kensington, Anfield and County that are all well below average. Also Mossley Hill which due to the recent demolition of a large halls of residence falls well below quota
|
|
|
Post by andrewteale on Oct 13, 2021 16:11:53 GMT
Three new electoral orders have been published: The County Borough of the Vale of Glamorgan (Electoral Arrangements) Order 2021 (S.I. 2021/1138). Introduces new ward boundaries for Vale of Glamorgan council, with effect from the May 2022 election. There are twenty-four new wards, of which five are single-member, eleven elect two councillors, five elect three councillors and three (Cadoc, Dinas Powys and Llantwit Major) elect four councillors. The County Borough of Torfaen (Electoral Arrangements) Order 2021 (S.I. 2021/1139). Introduces new ward boundaries for Torfaen council, with effect from the May 2022 election. There are eighteen new wards, of which four are single-member, six elect two councillors and eight elect three councillors. The County of Ceredigion (Electoral Arrangements) Order 2021 (S.I. 2021/1140). Introduces new ward boundaries for Ceredigion council, with effect from the May 2022 election. There are thirty-four new wards, of which thirty are single-member and four elect two councillors.
|
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,604
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Oct 19, 2021 19:30:54 GMT
The bit in my area - they're doing them by constituency.
|
|
European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,503
|
Post by European Lefty on Oct 19, 2021 19:39:12 GMT
The bit in my area - they're doing them by constituency.
So not only are they refusing to cross constituency boundaries except for one random example between Selby and Skipton, but they're using district wards as the building blocks and not crossing those boundaries either? What galaxy brain came up with that!?
|
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,604
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Oct 19, 2021 19:57:08 GMT
The bit in my area - they're doing them by constituency.
So not only are they refusing to cross constituency boundaries except for one random example between Selby and Skipton, but they're using district wards as the building blocks and not crossing those boundaries either? What galaxy brain came up with that!? They're using rules the SoS has told them to use. They've put in two dissenting recommendations, split Whitby and split Bedale into two 1-member divisions by breaking the rules instead of following the rules that forces 2-member divisions.
Though, to give them a bit of credit, in Scarborough BC the district wards are better balanced than the existing divisions as they were reviewed two years ago, and in Scarborough Town itself they were deliberately drawn to be county-division-sized and fitting to be used as future divisions.
|
|
ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,024
|
Post by ilerda on Oct 19, 2021 20:09:12 GMT
Presumably this is only intended as a transitional/temporary arrangement for the period until a full review can be undertaken by the LGBCE?
|
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,604
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Oct 20, 2021 2:06:25 GMT
Presumably this is only intended as a transitional/temporary arrangement for the period until a full review can be undertaken by the LGBCE? Yes, it's essentially a 1974 situation, with a 1983 to come along later.
|
|
|
Post by andrewteale on Oct 22, 2021 18:01:42 GMT
Three new electoral orders have been published: The County of Denbighshire (Electoral Arrangements) Order 2021 (S.I. 2021/1159). Introduces new ward boundaries for Denbighshire council, with effect from the May 2022 election. There are twenty-nine new wards, of which thirteen are single-member, thirteen elect two councillors and three (Denbigh Caledfryn Henllan, Prestatyn North and Ruthin) elect three councillors. The City and County of Cardiff (Electoral Arrangements) Order 2021 (S.I. 2021/1160). Introduces new ward boundaries for Cardiff council, with effect from the May 2022 election. There are twenty-eight new wards, of which nine elect two councillors, fifteen elect three councillors and four elect four councillors. The County Borough of Blaenau Gwent (Electoral Arrangements) Order 2021 (S.I. 2021/1161). Introduces new ward boundaries for Blaenau Gwent council, with effect from the May 2022 election, and consequentially divides the Beaufort community into two new communities called Beaufort and Garnlydan. There are fourteen new wards, of which nine elect two councillors and five elect three councillors.
|
|
|
Post by andrewteale on Oct 27, 2021 21:53:29 GMT
Two new electoral orders have been published: The County Borough of Conwy (Electoral Arrangements) Order 2021 (S.I. 2021/1181). Introduces new ward boundaries for Conwy council, with effect from the May 2022 election, and makes a consequential change to the boundary between the communities of Colwyn Bay and Rhos-on-Sea. There are thirty new wards, of which thirteen are single-member, ten elect two councillors, six elects three councillors and one (Llandrillo-yn-Rhos) elects four councillors. The County of Pembrokeshire (Electoral Arrangements) Order 2021 (S.I. 2021/1182). Introduces new ward boundaries for Pembrokeshire council, with effect from the May 2022 election, and makes consequential changes to electoral arrangements for the communities of Milford Haven, Pembroke, Pembroke Dock and Saundersfoot. There are fifty-nine new wards, of which fifty-eight are single member and one (Pembroke: Monkton and St Mary South) elects two councillors.
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Oct 28, 2021 6:15:11 GMT
So we’re getting new wards for all the Welsh authorities just in time for them to be completely ignored by the Welsh parliamentary Boundary Commission. I’ve never understood why the Commissions can’t take account of boundary changes since the operative date, since in many cases seats can be aligned with new boundaries without causing any redesign.
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 28, 2021 9:30:29 GMT
The LGBCE is starting a consultation on new wards for Buckinghamshire UA. They're currently at the council size stage. I hadn't realised that the 147 councillors it was initially set up with was substantially higher than anybody was calling for locally - it seems to have been based off the County Council's suggestion of two members from every ward with 50% arbitrarily added on top. Not sure why.
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 28, 2021 9:38:15 GMT
The precedent is probably Cornwall, which has a slightly larger population although the human geography (sparse population, many smaller villages) probably argue for smaller wards. Unlike Bucks they managed to get new wards in place just before the first unitary election on the basis of 123 councillors, then revised them still using 123 councillors, but have since decided that 87 will do.
|
|
|
Post by evergreenadam on Oct 28, 2021 10:40:34 GMT
So we’re getting new wards for all the Welsh authorities just in time for them to be completely ignored by the Welsh parliamentary Boundary Commission. I’ve never understood why the Commissions can’t take account of boundary changes since the operative date, since in many cases seats can be aligned with new boundaries without causing any redesign. Because as discussed previously the timing of the Parliamentary boundary review has been up in the air for the last ten years and local government boundary reviews need to keep going or nothing would ever get done while one review body waits for the other.
|
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,604
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Oct 28, 2021 14:18:12 GMT
The LGBCE is starting a consultation on new wards for Buckinghamshire UA. They're currently at the council size stage. I hadn't realised that the 147 councillors it was initially set up with was substantially higher than anybody was calling for locally - it seems to have been based off the County Council's suggestion of two members from every ward with 50% arbitrarily added on top. Not sure why. Very based off. It should have been based *on* something.
|
|
|
Post by andrewteale on Oct 28, 2021 21:35:59 GMT
Five new electoral orders have been published: The Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Electoral Arrangements) Regulations 2021 (S.S.I. 2021/369). Introduces new ward boundaries for Comhairle nan Eilean Siar, with effect from the May 2022 election. There are eleven new wards, of which six elect two councillors, three elect three councillors and two (Steòrnabhagh a Deas and Steòrnabhagh a Tuath) elect four councillors. The North Ayrshire (Electoral Arrangements) Regulations 2021 (S.S.I. 2021/370). Introduces new ward boundaries for North Ayrshire council, with effect from the May 2022 election. There are nine new wards, of which one (Arran) is single-member, three elect three councillors, two (Kilwinning and Irvine West) elect four councillors and three elect five councillors. The Orkney Islands (Electoral Arrangements) Regulations 2021 (S.S.I. 2021/371). Introduces new ward boundaries for Orkney Islands council, with effect from the May 2022 election. There are six new wards, of which three elect three councillors and three elect four councillors. The Shetland Islands (Electoral Arrangements) Regulations 2021 (S.S.I. 2021/372). Introduces new ward boundaries for Shetland Islands council, with effect from the May 2022 election. There are seven new wards, of which one (Shetland West) elects two councillors, three elect three councillors and three elect four councillors. The Social Security (Scotland) Act 2018 (Information-Sharing and Disability Assistance) (Consequential Provision and Modifications) Order 2021 (S.I. 2021/1182). Articles 6 to 9 make amendments to electoral regulations to provide that receipt of the mobility component of disability assistance for children and young people, at the higher rate, is among the forms of benefit which entitle a person to apply to vote by proxy, and to sign by proxy a petition for recall of an MP, without the need for attestation of an application.
|
|
|
Post by andrewteale on Oct 31, 2021 9:52:03 GMT
The death has been announced of Julian Stanyer, Conservative councillor for Speldhurst and Bidborough ward, Tunbridge Wells council.
|
|
|
Post by evergreenadam on Oct 31, 2021 11:44:00 GMT
The death has been announced of Julian Stanyer, Conservative councillor for Speldhurst and Bidborough ward, Tunbridge Wells council. Meant for the by-elections thread?
|
|