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Post by yellowperil on Aug 10, 2019 13:28:05 GMT
This is a little thread to cheer myself up. Please do not take it too seriously. Yes I know it does all the things one should never never do, like add up the votes in a set of by-elections and work out the collective vote share, so please don't bother to write in telling me it's a nonsense , I know that. Nevertheless for whatever reason this has been a remarkable summer for the Lib Dems and I'm just enjoying it for its own sake and while it lasts, which may not be much longer, I'm going to glory in it. If you're not a Lib Dem, just look away now.
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 10, 2019 14:11:14 GMT
There has so far been 19 by-elections in July/August 2019(and I mean principal Local Authority by-elections, so not including parish level elections or a certain parliamentary by election, tempting though it might be to include them). The Lib Dems have won 11 of these 19 30,000, compared with 3 Conservative wins and a solitary Labour win in Hartlepool. It might be argued that it was easy for the Lib Dems because there were a lot of their own defences, but in the past it has been said Lib Dems were better at winning somewhere new than defending what they had, so its good to see a 100% retention record, in some cases in quite tricky circumstances. If your previous councillor was really good, can you hang on to their personal vote? If they weren't and have left behind a mess, can you retrieve the situation?
I have been looking at where the 30,000+ votes have gone. Over 12,000 or just about 40% have gone to the Lib Dems. A little under 10,000 , or fractionally above 30%, have gone to the Tories. Labour is on about 3600 or 12%. The Greens are on about 900 or 3%, and Plaid a little behind that. (These elections so far are E&W only, so no SNP). The remaining 12% or so for the "others" - independents, localists, WEP, even 18 communist votes. The 3 Europhobic parties (or the even-more-Europhobic-than-the-Tories-parties -i.e. BxP, UKIP and ForBritain) polled a little more than 2% between them. Incidentally I have been rounding the figures quite deliberately so as not to suggest they have more weight than they do.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 10, 2019 14:19:33 GMT
No. Let's stop that now, please. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 10, 2019 14:55:33 GMT
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Post by greenchristian on Aug 10, 2019 16:42:25 GMT
If you're not a Lib Dem, just look away now. What is this? The football results? 
But yes, you guys are doing quite well on the by-election front right now. It will be interesting to see how long this trend continues.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 10, 2019 17:39:31 GMT
If you're not a Lib Dem, just look away now. What is this? The football results?
But yes, you guys are doing quite well on the by-election front right now. It will be interesting to see how long this trend continues.
Next Thursday is a long shot, just the one in Shropshire where we were third last time. Then there is a defence in Rugby that should be secure (famous last words there), but the last lot in August are distinctly unpromising, we came fifth in both wards last time round. |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 10, 2019 18:25:47 GMT
What is this? The football results?
But yes, you guys are doing quite well on the by-election front right now. It will be interesting to see how long this trend continues.
Next Thursday is a long shot, just the one in Shropshire where we were third last time. Then there is a defence in Rugby that should be secure (famous last words there), but the last lot in August are distinctly unpromising, we came fifth in both wards last time round. Of course this has never been about winning every seat. The 19 elections listed on this thread include ones where there was no Lib Dem candidate like this week's contest in East Northants, and ones like Ashford Downs North where they were lucky to get a distant third place. Still on almost 40% of the vote overall with those elections included. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Aug 10, 2019 20:53:07 GMT
No. Let's stop that now, please. Is it really so terrible to describe UKIP, BxP and ForBritain collectively as europhobic? The point being made here is that these are the parties whose common and defining feature is that they are more hostile to EU membership than the Conservative Party. It's a valid category amongst whom one could expect votes to easily transfer and I'm not sure what else to call them; perhaps EUphobic, but "euro" as a proxy for EU is common usage (e.g. "eurosceptic" which was voluntarily adopted by opponents of greater integration into the EU) Nor do I think "europhobic" to be inherently derogatory any more than the opposite, "europhile". Can anyone suggest an alternative term? |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Aug 10, 2019 21:20:01 GMT
There has so far been 19 by-elections in July/August 2019(and I mean principal Local Authority by-elections, so not including parish level elections or a certain parliamentary by election, tempting though it might be to include them). The Lib Dems have won 11 of these 19 30,000, compared with 3 Conservative wins and a solitary Labour win in Hartlepool. It might be argued that it was easy for the Lib Dems because there were a lot of their own defences, but in the past it has been said Lib Dems were better at winning somewhere new than defending what they had, so its good to see a 100% retention record, in some cases in quite tricky circumstances. If your previous councillor was really good, can you hang on to their personal vote? If they weren't and have left behind a mess, can you retrieve the situation? I have been looking at where the 30,000+ votes have gone. Over 12,000 or just about 40% have gone to the Lib Dems. A little under 10,000 , or fractionally above 30%, have gone to the Tories. Labour is on about 3600 or 12%. The Greens are on about 900 or 3%, and Plaid a little behind that. (These elections so far are E&W only, so no SNP). The remaining 12% or so for the "others" - independents, localists, WEP, even 18 communist votes. The 3 Europhobic parties (or the even-more-Europhobic-than-the-Tories-parties -i.e. BxP, UKIP and ForBritain) polled a little more than 2% between them. Incidentally I have been rounding the figures quite deliberately so as not to suggest they have more weight than they do. Am I correct in calculating that it’s 6 Lib Dem gains? |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 11, 2019 8:25:27 GMT
There has so far been 19 by-elections in July/August 2019(and I mean principal Local Authority by-elections, so not including parish level elections or a certain parliamentary by election, tempting though it might be to include them). The Lib Dems have won 11 of these 19 30,000, compared with 3 Conservative wins and a solitary Labour win in Hartlepool. It might be argued that it was easy for the Lib Dems because there were a lot of their own defences, but in the past it has been said Lib Dems were better at winning somewhere new than defending what they had, so its good to see a 100% retention record, in some cases in quite tricky circumstances. If your previous councillor was really good, can you hang on to their personal vote? If they weren't and have left behind a mess, can you retrieve the situation? I have been looking at where the 30,000+ votes have gone. Over 12,000 or just about 40% have gone to the Lib Dems. A little under 10,000 , or fractionally above 30%, have gone to the Tories. Labour is on about 3600 or 12%. The Greens are on about 900 or 3%, and Plaid a little behind that. (These elections so far are E&W only, so no SNP). The remaining 12% or so for the "others" - independents, localists, WEP, even 18 communist votes. The 3 Europhobic parties (or the even-more-Europhobic-than-the-Tories-parties -i.e. BxP, UKIP and ForBritain) polled a little more than 2% between them. Incidentally I have been rounding the figures quite deliberately so as not to suggest they have more weight than they do. Am I correct in calculating that it’s 6 Lib Dem gains? Yes, I think that was right- Trowbridge, Bridlington, Brixworth,Gloucester Barnwood and Podsmead, Worcester Claines -5 gains from Con and 1 from Lab. 5 holds: Cardiff Cyncoed, Richmond East Sheen, Hunts Godmanchester, Hazel Grove, and Cambridge Newnham. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Aug 11, 2019 8:42:53 GMT
Am I correct in calculating that it’s 6 Lib Dem gains? Yes, I think that was right- Trowbridge, Bridlington, Brixworth,Gloucester Barnwood and Podsmead, Worcester Claines -5 gains from Con and 1 from Lab. 5 holds: Cardiff Cyncoed, Richmond East Sheen, Hunts Godmanchester, Hazel Grove, and Cambridge Newnham. One for the record keepers. Have there ever been 6 Lib Dem local by election gains in 6 weeks before? |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 11, 2019 9:03:54 GMT
Double checking my records in response to Andrew's original query (and heaven knows what the answer would be to his latest one),I have realised to my chagrin that I had missed one by election off my original list altogether- don't know how that happened, except that it indicates it was all intended as a bit of fun and not to be taken too seriously. The missing election was the second Wiltshire one, at Westbury North,so I suppose I must have been thinking I had already got it, as it followed so soon after the Trowbridge one.
Westbury was yet another boring Lib Dem hold, so that means the total number of Lib Dem wins goes up to 12 out of 20, 6 gains, 6 holds.Quite a small ward, so the extra 488 LD votes won't change the overall vote share much, but would make the 40% vote share that bit more secure, while only 140 Tory votes will also mean that 30% vote share will also be more closely on the mark.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 11, 2019 10:53:46 GMT
Yes, I think that was right- Trowbridge, Bridlington, Brixworth,Gloucester Barnwood and Podsmead, Worcester Claines -5 gains from Con and 1 from Lab. 5 holds: Cardiff Cyncoed, Richmond East Sheen, Hunts Godmanchester, Hazel Grove, and Cambridge Newnham. One for the record keepers. Have there ever been 6 Lib Dem local by election gains in 6 weeks before? There were 7 Lib Dem gains in October 2003 - 8 if you extend to your six week time frame (not a comprehensive check - just picked a random year, but one which was likely to have a good yield) www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/byelections/gains03.htm |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 11, 2019 11:29:51 GMT
No. Let's stop that now, please. Is it really so terrible to describe UKIP, BxP and ForBritain collectively as europhobic? The point being made here is that these are the parties whose common and defining feature is that they are more hostile to EU membership than the Conservative Party. It's a valid category amongst whom one could expect votes to easily transfer and I'm not sure what else to call them; perhaps EUphobic, but "euro" as a proxy for EU is common usage (e.g. "eurosceptic" which was voluntarily adopted by opponents of greater integration into the EU) Nor do I think "europhobic" to be inherently derogatory any more than the opposite, "europhile". Can anyone suggest an alternative term? I think the point would be, and it's not my side of the debate, but anyway, that -phobic in almost all it's usages either denotes an irrational fear or a kind of prejudice/bigotry. For example, islamophobic or homophobic are clearly derogatory terms. I can't think of a use of -phobic that is neutral. I would imagine that Brexit supporters would argue that their views are neither. If there remains any hope of elevating the debate above the name-calling that seems to be where it is stuck, then it might be best to avoid such a term. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Aug 11, 2019 11:43:34 GMT
Is it really so terrible to describe UKIP, BxP and ForBritain collectively as europhobic? The point being made here is that these are the parties whose common and defining feature is that they are more hostile to EU membership than the Conservative Party. It's a valid category amongst whom one could expect votes to easily transfer and I'm not sure what else to call them; perhaps EUphobic, but "euro" as a proxy for EU is common usage (e.g. "eurosceptic" which was voluntarily adopted by opponents of greater integration into the EU) Nor do I think "europhobic" to be inherently derogatory any more than the opposite, "europhile". Can anyone suggest an alternative term? I think the point would be, and it's not my side of the debate, but anyway, that -phobic in almost all it's usages either denotes an irrational fear or a kind of prejudice/bigotry. For example, islamophobic or homophobic are clearly derogatory terms. I can't think of a use of -phobic that is neutral. I would imagine that Brexit supporters would argue that their views are neither. If there remains any hope of elevating the debate above the name-calling that seems to be where it is stuck, then it might be best to avoid such a term. Fair enough. I suppose on the other side "phile" is OK but "philiac" tends to denote irrationality. Can anyone think of another term that fits the bill? Perhaps we should just call them nationalist. |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 11, 2019 11:46:58 GMT
One for the record keepers. Have there ever been 6 Lib Dem local by election gains in 6 weeks before? There were 7 Lib Dem gains in October 2003 - 8 if you extend to your six week time frame (not a comprehensive check - just picked a random year, but one which was likely to have a good yield) www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/byelections/gains03.htmThank you for that- I thought it would be around then if at all. It looks as though that is quite right if you pick a time frame very carefully, but looking generally at that year it looks as though the gains and losses were a lot more fluid then, and the Lib Dems were also losing quite a lot if you look over a slightly wider time frame. The difference this time is that the movement all seems to be going the same way over a more prolonged period- Lib Dems have been gaining seats all year and losing very few. Maybe you need to wait to a time when Lib Dems start losing seats again, but of course because they lost so many earlier in this decade they don't have so many to defend that aren't absolutely safe anyway. The most possible coming loss, if you count in parliamentary seats, could be Shetland, but if so that could be to SNP which is rather different! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 11, 2019 12:21:49 GMT
As you suggest at the end there, they start from a very low base following the coalition years. They have little left to lose and, having lost so many seats there are plenty more seats around that are winnable by definition (because they have won them before)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 11, 2019 12:23:10 GMT
I think the point would be, and it's not my side of the debate, but anyway, that -phobic in almost all it's usages either denotes an irrational fear or a kind of prejudice/bigotry. For example, islamophobic or homophobic are clearly derogatory terms. I can't think of a use of -phobic that is neutral. I would imagine that Brexit supporters would argue that their views are neither. If there remains any hope of elevating the debate above the name-calling that seems to be where it is stuck, then it might be best to avoid such a term. Fair enough. I suppose on the other side "phile" is OK but "philiac" tends to denote irrationality. Can anyone think of another term that fits the bill? Perhaps we should just call them nationalist. Anti-EU seems like a fairly obvious description which is clear, accurate and neutral |
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 11, 2019 15:21:48 GMT
As you suggest at the end there, they start from a very low base following the coalition years. They have little left to lose and, having lost so many seats there are plenty more seats around that are winnable by definition (because they have won them before) I would also consider that there has been a reasonably favourable run of seats in local by-elections and that the sample is too small to mean anything. There was a very good run before the 2017 local elections and the general election, it didn't mean anything. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 11, 2019 15:27:13 GMT
There were a lot of Lib Dem gains in July 1997 but there appear to have been a huge number of by-elections in that month, at least by the standards of today. I wonder why that was. I suppose there may be some connection with the general election not long before, but it can't all be newly elected MPs vacating their council seats - certainly not the Conservative seats anyway. Perhaps the rigours of the campaign (which would have involved county council elections in many areas as well) caused an increase in councillor mortality www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/byelections/le9707.htm#3101 |
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