Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,261
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 9, 2019 20:34:21 GMT
RUGBY BC; Rokeby & Overslade (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
ALLANACH, Glenda Joy (Liberal Democrat)
HARTLAND, Richard St John (Brexit Party)
HEMSLEY, Beck (Labour)
KEELING, Deborah Ann Catherine (Conservative)
STEVENSON, Becca (Green)
2019: LD 1276; Lab 373; Con 371
2018: LD 1265; Con 552; Lab 512; Grn 80
2016: LD 1196; Con 527; Lab 471; Grn 88; TUSC 48
2015: LD 1462; Con 1323; Lab 935; Grn 247
2014: LD 1151; Con 697; Lab 540; Grn 138; TUSC 71
2012: Lab 615, 564, 496; Con 613, 612, 557; LD 504, 491, 372; Grn 205; TUSC 125
The Labour candidate stood here earlier this year.
Current Council: Con 24; Lab 9; LD 8; 1 vacancy
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Post by tonygreaves on Aug 17, 2019 10:52:08 GMT
I suppose the interesting thing here is whether Labour will come third, fourth or fifth in a seat they held seven years ago? Plus how well Brexit will do in only their third outing.
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Post by matureleft on Aug 17, 2019 10:59:25 GMT
I suppose the interesting thing here is whether Labour will come third, fourth or fifth in a seat they held seven years ago? Plus how well Brexit will do in only their third outing. Well sort of. They had the top vote in a three seat ward but, one would suspect from the fate of the 2 running mates, that individual had a personal vote. |
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Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 39,120
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 17, 2019 12:02:09 GMT
I suppose the interesting thing here is whether Labour will come third, fourth or fifth in a seat they held seven years ago? Plus how well Brexit will do in only their third outing. The Conservatives held two out of the three seats, though. And it still remains a Tory parliamentary seat unless it's a very good Labour year (which, frankly, is what matters, given that councils have no power and only the money central government gives them) |
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Post by tonygreaves on Aug 17, 2019 16:23:28 GMT
An exaggeration but it's been increasingly true for too long.
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Post by thirdchill on Aug 18, 2019 8:46:46 GMT
What caused the sudden jump in the lib dem vote between 2012 and 2014?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 18, 2019 9:13:05 GMT
What caused the sudden jump in the lib dem vote between 2012 and 2014? This ward was created in 2012 as a merger of the Caldecott and Overslade wards. Caldecott was a relatively safe Lib Dem ward (with the Tories competitive) and Overslade was a Conservative/Labour marginal where the Lib Dems were nowhere. Two of the Lib Dem councillors for Caldecott stood in the new ward in 2012 and came close. One of these then went on to win in 2014. Presumably this was through putting effort into the Overslade part of the ward where they had not previously been active. 2012 was of course the best year for Labour under Miliband |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 22, 2019 12:18:22 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 22, 2019 21:01:02 GMT
andrewteale has one of the good lines about rugby union there, but not the funniest one (as Khunanup will know).
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 22, 2019 22:42:25 GMT
RUGBY Rokeby and Overslade
ALLANACH, Glenda Joy (Liberal Democrat) 963
KEELING, Deborah Ann Catherine (Conservative) 346
HEMSLEY, Beck (Labour) 165
HARTLAND, Richard St John (Brexit Party) 163
STEVENSON, Becca (Green) 79
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 22, 2019 22:59:52 GMT
Rugby, Rokeby & Overslade - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2019 B votes | 2019 B share | since 2019 | since 2018 | since 2016 | since 2015 | | Liberal Democrat | 963 | 56.1% | -7.0% | +3.6% | +4.8% | +19.3% | Conservative | 346 | 20.1% | +1.8% | -2.8% | -2.5% | -13.2% | Labour | 165 | 9.6% | -8.8% | -11.6% | -10.6% | -14.0% | Brexit | 163 | 9.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 79 | 4.6% | from nowhere | +1.3% | +0.8% | -1.6% | TUSC |
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| -2.1% |
| Total votes | 1,716 |
| 85% | 71% | 74% | 43% |
Swing Liberal Democrat to Conservative ~ 4½% since May but Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 3¼% since 2018, 3¾% since 2016 and 16¼% since 2015 Council now 24 Conservative, 9 Labour, 9 Liberal Democrat
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carlton43
Non-Aligned
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 22, 2019 23:19:56 GMT
Good solid LD win but evidence declining from peak earlier this year?
Good solid Con 2nd and modest increase despite the 9.5% to Brexit which must have damaged us?
Perhaps a bit more evidence that we are regainng a bit of lost ground caused by bloody May and that Brexit does not have serious pull outside the Euros and one or two hot spots, but still potential to damage us at a GE?
Do it Johnson. Just get on and do it to lance this Farage boil. Then have a GE.
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 23, 2019 7:25:38 GMT
Good solid LD win but evidence declining from peak earlier this year? Good solid Con 2nd and modest increase despite the 9.5% to Brexit which must have damaged us? Perhaps a bit more evidence that we are regainng a bit of lost ground caused by bloody May and that Brexit does not have serious pull outside the Euros and one or two hot spots, but still potential to damage us at a GE? Do it Johnson. Just get on and do it to lance this Farage boil. Then have a GE. In a Lib Dem local election vote of 63% at least 1/3 will have voted Leave. Attitudes have hardened since May so it is no surprise to see people voting locally a bit more on national lines.. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,155
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 23, 2019 7:58:05 GMT
Good solid LD win but evidence declining from peak earlier this year? Good solid Con 2nd and modest increase despite the 9.5% to Brexit which must have damaged us? Perhaps a bit more evidence that we are regainng a bit of lost ground caused by bloody May and that Brexit does not have serious pull outside the Euros and one or two hot spots, but still potential to damage us at a GE? Do it Johnson. Just get on and do it to lance this Farage boil. Then have a GE. Our councillor elected in May resigned shortly afterwards. While I'm sure there will have been very good reasons for that from his PoV, it's still never a good look when that happens, and it may make our supporters less likely to turn out, and may cause some to punish us for it. Plus we may have lost a few to the Greens.
All that said, however, with over 55% of the vote and a majority of over 30%, I don't think we'll be going into panic mode just yet. I'm more struck by the slide in the Labour vote, this has been happening time and time again recently and ought to be worrying the folk back at party HQ.
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 23, 2019 17:02:12 GMT
It seems the new Lib Dem councillor is a "person of colour" (according to Lib Dem voice who to their credit call her a black woman)
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