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Post by yellowperil on Aug 15, 2019 23:10:50 GMT
This time the LDs couldn't win because presumably the task of squeezing the Labour vote proved too difficult where Labour were starting in a strongish second place and Lib Dems quite a distant third. But even so it was the Lib Dems who were advancing significantly and Labour going backwards and losing their main challenger position. Next time?
And not much sign of a Boris bounce?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 15, 2019 23:16:17 GMT
This time the LDs couldn't win because presumably the task of squeezing the Labour vote proved too difficult where Labour were starting in a strongish second place and Lib Dems quite a distant third. But even so it was the Lib Dems who were advancing significantly and Labour going backwards and losing their main challenger position. Next time? And not much sign of a Boris bounce? The Conservatives were in the high 40s in the opinion polls when this seat was last contested |
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 15, 2019 23:16:43 GMT
Shropshire, Meole - Conservative hold | Party | 2019 votes | 2019 share | since 2017 | since 2015 B | since 2013 | since 2009 | Conservative | 438 | 37.6% | -17.8% | -5.5% | -17.3% | -33.7% | Liberal Democrat | 309 | 26.5% | +14.4% | +6.9% | +19.2% | -2.1% | Labour | 286 | 24.6% | -2.9% | -2.1% | -13.1% | from nowhere | Green | 131 | 11.3% | +6.3% | +6.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| Total votes | 1,164 |
| 91% | 102% | 93% | 80% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 16% since 2017, 6¼% since 2015 by-election, 18¼% since 2013 and 15½% since 2009 - and also less meaningful Conservative to Labour 7½% since 2017, 1¾% since 2015 by-election, 2% since 2013 Council now 48 Conservative, 11 Liberal Democrat, 7 Labour, 3 Independent, 2 Non-Affiliated, 1 Green, 1 Health Concern, 1 Vacant
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 16, 2019 7:08:48 GMT
This time the LDs couldn't win because presumably the task of squeezing the Labour vote proved too difficult where Labour were starting in a strongish second place and Lib Dems quite a distant third. But even so it was the Lib Dems who were advancing significantly and Labour going backwards and losing their main challenger position. Next time? And not much sign of a Boris bounce? The Conservatives were in the high 40s in the opinion polls when this seat was last contested Probably a bit doubtful that you can make too much of a correlation between national polling and results in one small local election, but actually in this case it works pretty well -Tories down say about 15%, compared with May 2017, Lib Dems up by a similar sort of amount, Labour down by up to 5%, Greens up by a similar amount. So Shrewsbury, like Worcester, is maybe a microcosm of the nation, and, like I said the Boris bounce is minimal, just a slight recovery from the final Theresa catastrophe. And it isn't as though the Tory vote is being dissipated by an intervention of a Brexit/UKIP candidate. |
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Post by andrewp on Aug 16, 2019 7:22:36 GMT
The Conservatives were in the high 40s in the opinion polls when this seat was last contested Probably a bit doubtful that you can make too much of a correlation between national polling and results in one small local election, but actually in this case it works pretty well -Tories down say about 15%, compared with May 2017, Lib Dems up by a similar sort of amount, Labour down by up to 5%, Greens up by a similar amount. So Shrewsbury, like Worcester, is maybe a microcosm of the nation, and, like I said the Boris bounce is minimal, just a slight recovery from the final Theresa catastrophe. And it isn't as though the Tory vote is being dissipated by an intervention of a Brexit/UKIP candidate. It feels like the first time in a few weeks where the Lib Dem’s were not able to squeeze the Labour vote. They have managed that even when starting in 3rd in one or two places. |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 16, 2019 8:00:56 GMT
Probably a bit doubtful that you can make too much of a correlation between national polling and results in one small local election, but actually in this case it works pretty well -Tories down say about 15%, compared with May 2017, Lib Dems up by a similar sort of amount, Labour down by up to 5%, Greens up by a similar amount. So Shrewsbury, like Worcester, is maybe a microcosm of the nation, and, like I said the Boris bounce is minimal, just a slight recovery from the final Theresa catastrophe. And it isn't as though the Tory vote is being dissipated by an intervention of a Brexit/UKIP candidate. It feels like the first time in a few weeks where the Lib Dem’s were not able to squeeze the Labour vote. They have managed that even when starting in 3rd in one or two places. I feel Labour had a rather stronger base here than some others where they may have started in second. I like the suggestion by Sibboleth that this was in effect two contests in different parts of the ward, one Con/Lab fight and one Con/Lib Dem one, with the Tories losing both, but winning overall. I don't know if there was anyone at the count who could confirm that was in fact the case. |
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Post by froome on Aug 16, 2019 8:02:27 GMT
Does anyone know what the town council result was?
Incidentally I know the Green candidate quite well and am very pleased to see our vote rising well in line if not above current polling, which bodes well for our prospects in the town.
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Post by andrewp on Aug 16, 2019 8:41:45 GMT
Does anyone know what the town council result was? Incidentally I know the Green candidate quite well and am very pleased to see our vote rising well in line if not above current polling, which bodes well for our prospects in the town. Don’t know the numbers but it was also a Conservative win |
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 16, 2019 9:54:39 GMT
A comparison between the Meole Unitary and Town results is given by:
| Unitary | Town | Difference | | Party | votes | votes | votes | | Conservative | 438 | 428 | -10 | Liberal Democrat | 309 | 299 | -10 | Labour | 286 | 277 | -9 | Green | 131 | 120 | -11 | Independent |
| 43 | +43 | Total votes | 1,164 | 1,167 | +3 |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 16, 2019 10:01:49 GMT
Remarkably even "spread" of the town council Independent's vote there!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 16, 2019 10:02:31 GMT
Whoever that Independent was, they have serious cross-party appeal. Perhaps they should head up a government of National Unity...
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 16, 2019 11:26:39 GMT
This time the LDs couldn't win because presumably the task of squeezing the Labour vote proved too difficult where Labour were starting in a strongish second place and Lib Dems quite a distant third. But even so it was the Lib Dems who were advancing significantly and Labour going backwards and losing their main challenger position. Next time? And not much sign of a Boris bounce? The Conservatives were in the high 40s in the opinion polls when this seat was last contested Granted that it was last fought in May 2017, this still isn't a great Tory result. Any local issues in play? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 16, 2019 11:32:43 GMT
The Conservatives were in the high 40s in the opinion polls when this seat was last contested Granted that it was last fought in May 2017, this still isn't a great Tory result. Any local issues in play? There usually are. My recollection from when I used to do the prediction competition (and I really ought to start doing it again just because it forces me to pay attention) was that Shropshire was one of those places that seemed to have an unpopular administration which always seemed to do badly in by-elections. Of course this was in the period before the 2017 elections and any general unpopularity of the administration should have been priced into the result already |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 16, 2019 11:33:20 GMT
The Conservatives were in the high 40s in the opinion polls when this seat was last contested Granted that it was last fought in May 2017, this still isn't a great Tory result. Any local issues in play? I saw a Tweet from the Green candidate which was after a hustings meeting, thanking all the candidates for promising to fight for the introduction of a 20mph zone in part of the Ward - perhaps the administration are refusing local requests? |
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Post by tonygreaves on Aug 16, 2019 11:50:40 GMT
Whoever that Independent was, they have serious cross-party appeal. Perhaps they should head up a government of National Unity... Hardly "serious" appeal at all. Small appeal, but what there is, is cross-party. "Frivolous" cross-party appeal perhaps...  |
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Post by tonygreaves on Aug 16, 2019 11:51:26 GMT
I may have some local info in due course.
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Rural Radical
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Post by Rural Radical on Aug 16, 2019 16:29:00 GMT
To most people in Shropshire 'Meole' would mostly mean the big retail park, but as that is on the eastern side of the A49 and it is not in the ward. Meole is, of course, pronounced 'Meal'. Of course there are three versions of the town's name, not two: the very local (very working class) pronunciation goes with 'Shoe'. I grew up in the North of Shropshire and we pronounce it “Shoes-Bree” 😄 |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 16, 2019 17:51:20 GMT
Meole was a village that got turned into a suburb by the growth of Shrewsbury; it's at the outer south west of the town. When I was growing up my grandparents lived in a hamlet to the west of Shrewsbury but I can't consciously recall ever visiting Meole. The pronunciation of the town is a matter of much debate; the last time I took a train there it was noticeable that the same voice used one pronunciation as we were leaving Birmingham but the other as we approached Shrewsbury. A friend observed that a study amongst students at their sixth form college exactly aligned to which side of the River Severn their school was on. So it should be "Shrowsbury" here. From my PoV, it's most noted for the Meole Brace roundabout, a busy traffic junction where the A5 intersected with A49 before the new bypass was built. Both roads have now been removed from the scene, and while it's still busy, it doesn't get quite as gridlocked as before. Shrewsbury Town FC's new stadium is not far away as well, but outside the ward, I think. Host of a Park & Ride served by Optare Versas. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 16, 2019 17:54:39 GMT
To most people in Shropshire 'Meole' would mostly mean the big retail park, but as that is on the eastern side of the A49 and it is not in the ward. Meole is, of course, pronounced 'Meal'. Of course there are three versions of the town's name, not two: the very local (very working class) pronunciation goes with 'Shoe'. I grew up in the North of Shropshire and we pronounce it “Shoes-Bree” 😄 It's pronounced s - a - l - o - p |
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 16, 2019 18:15:31 GMT
I grew up in the North of Shropshire and we pronounce it “Shoes-Bree” 😄 It's pronounced s - a - l - o - p A-m-w-y-t-h-i-g |
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