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Post by graham on Dec 26, 2021 16:05:31 GMT
Bath has a rather strange Labour electoral history. Until 1974 it was clearly the main anti-Tory option, but after narrowly losing second place at the February election it never managed to recover despite remaining in contention at the October election when the defector Christopher Mayhew fought he seat for the Liberals.Perhaps Labour's route to winning there was effectively blocked off by Don Foster's defeat of Chris Patten in 1992.Having seen the election of a non-Tory MP , it became difficult for Labour to win back its former voters.
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Post by graham on Dec 26, 2021 16:30:35 GMT
Interesting to see that the MRP survey has Labour winning Wimbledon! That will provide useful material for election leaflets to deter tactical voting.
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Post by carolus on Dec 26, 2021 16:46:39 GMT
There's a curious "flattening" in the seat by seat breakdowns - they appear to have each party swinging towards the nationwide vote share in most seats i.e. dropping in seats they did well in in 2019 and improving in their least good seats.
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Post by graham on Dec 26, 2021 17:48:12 GMT
The survey also appears to show Labour winning 11 seats in Scotland.
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Post by froome on Dec 26, 2021 17:57:47 GMT
Bath has a rather strange Labour electoral history. Until 1974 it was clearly the main anti-Tory option, but after narrowly losing second place at the February election it never managed to recover despite remaining in contention at the October election when the defector Christopher Mayhew fought he seat for the Liberals.Perhaps Labour's route to winning there was effectively blocked off by Don Foster's defeat of Chris Patten in 1992.Having seen the election of a non-Tory MP , it became difficult for Labour to win back its former voters. As a resident of Bath (and indeed in the south-west of the city where in theory Labour should be strongest, though they aren't - they are stronger in some of the more middle-class areas), I would say: a) The projected result is indeed bollocks. b) There is next to nil chance of Labour winning or even coming remotely close. c) Labour are stronger here than they have been for a while, but that isn't saying much. They were helped in 2019 by us not standing a candidate, a decision which I (and many others locally) disagreed with. d) Assuming we do stand a candidate at the next election, I would expect us to be at least competitive with Labour. At local elections we have usually matched their vote, and have beaten them easily in European elections. e) On current polling, the Lib Dems would win the seat very easily, with the Conservatives second. The Conservatives could only hope to win the seat back if they were looking at a majority of well over 150 seats at the election. The likelihood of that happening is probably similar to the Conservatives slipping to third, i.e. extremely remote, which would only happen if either Labour or ourselves managed to establish ourselves as the alternative to vote for.
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 26, 2021 17:58:40 GMT
Bath being a Lib Dem/ Labour ultra marginal is a corker. YouGov’s 2017 MRP showed a lot of Labour strength that failed to materialise come general election (a very rare significant overshoot by them). Its an ultra remain university constituency so I find it believable a lot of people there could vote Labour (a lot of them won’t by general Election Day of course). Much of the demographic in Bath that is voting Lib Dem will be the same demographic that voted Lib Dem in Bristol West in 2010, but Labour or Green in the last 3 elections. MRP does not have enough voters in any one seat to make a meaningful sample, so it must work primarily on regional demographics, and is simply not capable of predicting well without incorporating some target seat fudge. Where there are Lib Dem MPs they must make some sort of fudge or else there would be no Lib Dem holds predicted at all.
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Focaldata
Dec 26, 2021 18:00:00 GMT
via mobile
Post by andrew111 on Dec 26, 2021 18:00:00 GMT
We are some years from an election so the benefits of MRP are slightly less. I suspect if you're a lib dem you'd be slightly less concerned by this than you would be if it were five days out from the General Election It would be similarly rubbish but might have some effect of its own
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Post by froome on Dec 26, 2021 18:00:49 GMT
Bath has a rather strange Labour electoral history. Until 1974 it was clearly the main anti-Tory option, but after narrowly losing second place at the February election it never managed to recover despite remaining in contention at the October election when the defector Christopher Mayhew fought he seat for the Liberals.Perhaps Labour's route to winning there was effectively blocked off by Don Foster's defeat of Chris Patten in 1992.Having seen the election of a non-Tory MP , it became difficult for Labour to win back its former voters. I should add that I've canvassed much of the south-west of the city over the years, and any vote that could swing Labour's way here is very soft, and just as likely to come our way.
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Focaldata
Dec 26, 2021 18:02:13 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 26, 2021 18:02:13 GMT
There's a curious "flattening" in the seat by seat breakdowns - they appear to have each party swinging towards the nationwide vote share in most seats i.e. dropping in seats they did well in in 2019 and improving in their least good seats. That might be a genuine "get Brexit done" unwind
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Post by batman on Dec 26, 2021 18:28:27 GMT
The survey also appears to show Labour winning 11 seats in Scotland. yes, and as I said they're not very logical. There is no reason why Labour would win Glasgow C or Airdrie & lose E Lothian, which is the second seat on Labour's target list in Scotland and votes Labour in Scottish parliamentary elections.
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Focaldata
Dec 26, 2021 18:43:41 GMT
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Post by jm on Dec 26, 2021 18:43:41 GMT
I gave up looking after a while as there are so many obviously bollocks projections. How can Airdrie & Shotts be Labour & East Lothian SNP? How can Cheltenham be Conservative not LD? How can Bassetlaw & Dudley North be Labour? And so on and so on. I have no local knowledge of Dudley North but Bassetlaw shouldn't be written off, as previously mentioned it was Labour in 2017 and there were local circumstances that produced a uniquely bad result for Labour last time (which I have previously mentioned on this forum) Regaining this seat will be difficult but on current polling and based on recent door knocking I think it will be very close if we retain the polling lead nationally.
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Post by graham on Dec 26, 2021 18:50:25 GMT
The survey also appears to show Labour winning 11 seats in Scotland. yes, and as I said they're not very logical. There is no reason why Labour would win Glasgow C or Airdrie & lose E Lothian, which is the second seat on Labour's target list in Scotland and votes Labour in Scottish parliamentary elections. It gives Labour 4 seats in Glasgow. The seats mentioned are likely Labour targets - as will be East Lothian.
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Post by graham on Dec 26, 2021 19:04:43 GMT
Bath has a rather strange Labour electoral history. Until 1974 it was clearly the main anti-Tory option, but after narrowly losing second place at the February election it never managed to recover despite remaining in contention at the October election when the defector Christopher Mayhew fought he seat for the Liberals.Perhaps Labour's route to winning there was effectively blocked off by Don Foster's defeat of Chris Patten in 1992.Having seen the election of a non-Tory MP , it became difficult for Labour to win back its former voters. I should add that I've canvassed much of the south-west of the city over the years, and any vote that could swing Labour's way here is very soft, and just as likely to come our way. That is fair enough and does not surprise me given that Bath has an incumbent LD MP. I note that the survey also shows Labour pretty competitive in Carshalton & Wallington - just a few points behind the Tories with the LDs now in third place. I don't know whether Tom Brake intends to stand again - but this seat had been a Tory/Labour marginal in the 1970s with Labour in second place until 1983. Some similarity to Bath in that LD success owed a great deal to Labour tactical voting, but now that the seat has been lost perhaps Labour has an opportunity to revive there.
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Focaldata
Dec 26, 2021 19:38:20 GMT
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Post by mattbewilson on Dec 26, 2021 19:38:20 GMT
We are some years from an election so the benefits of MRP are slightly less. I suspect if you're a lib dem you'd be slightly less concerned by this than you would be if it were five days out from the General Election It would be similarly rubbish but might have some effect of its own tbf many rubbished the MRPs prediction of libdem meltdown in 2019 but it turned out accurate
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Post by mattbewilson on Dec 26, 2021 19:39:53 GMT
yes, and as I said they're not very logical. There is no reason why Labour would win Glasgow C or Airdrie & lose E Lothian, which is the second seat on Labour's target list in Scotland and votes Labour in Scottish parliamentary elections. It gives Labour 4 seats in Glasgow. The seats mentioned are likely Labour targets - as will be East Lothian. i think what is meant is Labour aren't going to win seats in Glasgow but lose East Lothian. If Labour win seats in Glasgow they'll win East Lothian. If they don't win East Lothian they'll probably not pick up much more
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Post by carolus on Dec 26, 2021 19:43:24 GMT
I should add that I've canvassed much of the south-west of the city over the years, and any vote that could swing Labour's way here is very soft, and just as likely to come our way. That is fair enough and does not surprise me given that Bath has an incumbent LD MP. I note that the survey also shows Labour pretty competitive in Carshalton & Wallington - just a few points behind the Tories with the LDs now in third place. I don't know whether Tom Brake intends to stand again - but this seat had been a Tory/Labour marginal in the 1970s with Labour in second place until 1983. Some similarity to Bath in that LD success owed a great deal to Labour tactical voting, but now that the seat has been lost perhaps Labour has an opportunity to revive there.
On your Tom Brake point - he isn't standing again, his replacement has been selected. That said, I fear you may be getting a trifle carried away here. Whilst I will confess to being a little biased, I think it is an implausible model that suggests a Con-LD ultra-marginal with both parties on ~42%, and Labour on 12% is going to see a sudden surge from Labour into second. Labour have zero councillors in the seat (as also Bath) and last scored more than 20% in 1997. I would not weight results from 40 years ago especially highly.
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Focaldata
Dec 26, 2021 19:47:00 GMT
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Post by mattbewilson on Dec 26, 2021 19:47:00 GMT
There are traditional marginals that Labour usually win to win a majority; Amber Valley, Redditch, Waveney, Harlow, Nuneaton, etc. generally speaking Labour have lost ground in these seats while others have become more competitive like Worthing, Southport, Bournemouth, etc. its not impossible that there is a huge swing to gain Waveney while Labour fall short in rest when Labour's path to a majority is Worthing et al. I guess it would be nice to know what's the data being crunched by Focaldata that says Labour MP in Waveney but not Amber Valley
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Post by batman on Dec 26, 2021 20:01:53 GMT
It gives Labour 4 seats in Glasgow. The seats mentioned are likely Labour targets - as will be East Lothian. i think what is meant is Labour aren't going to win seats in Glasgow but lose East Lothian. If Labour win seats in Glasgow they'll win East Lothian. If they don't win East Lothian they'll probably not pick up much more exactly right. The only Labour target in Scotland which is easier than E Lothian is Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath and that's much easier. Glasgow Central wasn't even all that close in 2017, it was the second biggest SNP majority of the Glasgow seats.
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 26, 2021 20:05:08 GMT
Look MRP is based on using polling data by demographic groups and applying to the demographic composition of constituencies. It takes no account of history. By definition it is always going to underestimate performance of minority parties in areas where they are historically strong. Its value is in looking at major party contests. If the insouciance of Conservatives towards the threat of the coronavirus to old people affects old peoples’ votes, then this will show up in seats with lots of older people. If those who expected gains, of whatever sort, from leaving the EU become disappointed, then this will show up in seats with high support for Brexit. And so on.
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Post by carolus on Dec 26, 2021 20:16:33 GMT
Look MRP is based on using polling data by demographic groups and applying to the demographic composition of constituencies. It takes no account of history. By definition it is always going to underestimate performance of minority parties in areas where they are historically strong. Its value is in looking at major party contests. If the insouciance of Conservatives towards the threat of the coronavirus to old people affects old peoples’ votes, then this will show up in seats with lots of older people. If those who expected gains, of whatever sort, from leaving the EU become disappointed, then this will show up in seats with high support for Brexit. And so on. It would be a poor (and pointless) model that makes no attempt to account for the prior election result in a constituency. You would get a model that is useless for its stated aim of providing accurate seat by seat projection. "Here is a projection of how the country would vote now (but we assume voting history is irrelevant, despite it clearly being hugely relevant)" is not going to result in anything of any use whatsoever.
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