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Post by John Chanin on Dec 26, 2021 13:54:49 GMT
Yep, alongside Ceredigion, York Outer, Southend East and both Bournemouth seats. It looks like they've tried to work out how Labour can get a majority without winning back much in Scotland or the Midlands Waveney & Ceredigion definitely aren't happening. Rochford & E Southend is unlikely but not quite impossible. Bournemouth W is a longshot but possible. Outer York & Bournemouth E are within the national swing shown and unless there's a compelling reason for the swing to Labour to be lower there they are likely if this poll were borne out Southend East has low owner occupation and high private renting. It is below average for managerial jobs and above average for routine jobs. It has a significant and growing ethnic minority population. It’s one of those places with a potential Labour vote that has never been realized, partly because of being in the south Essex cultural area, and partly local factors. There is a growing Labour group of councillors. If Labour were to actually win a majority of seats (extremely unlikely in my view) this would be one of them.
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Post by graham on Dec 26, 2021 13:54:57 GMT
Waveney was comfortably Labour-held 1997 - 2010 when it was very narrowly lost. If Brexit really has now lost its salience as an electoral issue, a well above average swingback to Labour there should not be ruled out - with the 2017 and 2019 results being possible aberrations. Cardigan was Labour-held 1966 - Feb 1974.
The Conservative majority there is 35% now, meaning a swing of almost 18% from Conservative to Labour would be needed there. That's much greater than the national swing. It's also worth pointing out that even if Brexit ceases to be a dividing factor in our politics, divides around age and home ownership won't just vanish. Waveney has a relatively old population who generally own their own homes - not exactly fertile ground for Labour. But it still only would amount to reversing the big pro-Tory swing which occurred post 2015. Waveney - and its predecessor seat of Lowestoft - had generally been pretty marginal. Jim Prior's majorities were often small despite his personal vote. Far too early to assume that Brexit brought about a longterm sea change there.The Tory collapse in very Brexit North Shropshire should give Labour some hope here.
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batman
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Post by batman on Dec 26, 2021 13:58:09 GMT
Remember that MPR doesn't take account of tactical voting. That makes a noticeable difference in Scotland where Con / Lab and LD will receive non SNP votes where they can win. It will also affect a seat or two in England and Wales. When predicting majorities or coalitions, it is worth bearing this in mind. From the map it looks like they predict Con holds in Cheadle and Hazel Grove. On UNS Cheadle is an easy Lib Dem win on the input figures and Hazel Grove a Tory win by 1%. In both cases the Labour vote rises to just over 20%. I think UNS will be much better than this MRP based on demographics, since it reflects the target seat level tactical squeeze in previous elections. But in addition, if the polls stay like that it will be a 1997 type of election where the Tory switchers went Labour in most places but mainly to Lib Dem in our target seats, leading to victories like Harrogate and Knaresborough. So I would predict that on figures like the current polls both Cheadle and Hazel Grove would go Lib Dem yes I'd agree - I can't see the Tories winning either of those ATM. Incidentally if current polls were correct, no Tories would be elected in Merseyside, Greater Manchester or South Yorkshire. 2 would be in West Yorkshire (Andrea Jenkyns & Alec Shelbrooke)
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Post by matureleft on Dec 26, 2021 14:00:40 GMT
Waveney & Ceredigion definitely aren't happening. Rochford & E Southend is unlikely but not quite impossible. Bournemouth W is a longshot but possible. Outer York & Bournemouth E are within the national swing shown and unless there's a compelling reason for the swing to Labour to be lower there they are likely if this poll were borne out Waveney was comfortably Labour-held 1997 - 2010 when it was very narrowly lost. If Brexit really has now lost its salience as an electoral issue, a well above average swingback to Labour there should not be ruled out - with the 2017 and 2019 results being possible aberrations. Cardigan was Labour-held 1966 - Feb 1974.
There’s fair evidence of a significant personal vote for Bob Blizzard, the MP 1997-2010 and candidate in 2015. His absence later seems to have depressed the Labour vote.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 26, 2021 14:02:15 GMT
The Conservative majority there is 35% now, meaning a swing of almost 18% from Conservative to Labour would be needed there. That's much greater than the national swing. It's also worth pointing out that even if Brexit ceases to be a dividing factor in our politics, divides around age and home ownership won't just vanish. Waveney has a relatively old population who generally own their own homes - not exactly fertile ground for Labour. While I agree with you that Waveney looks way out of Labour's reach and the age divide obviously still exists to a significant degree, it is worth noting that the swing to Labour is pretty disproportionately coming from pensioners. In fact, until the last few weeks the swing to Labour was entirely among the over ~45s with 18-24 years olds sometimes swinging to the Conservatives! Therefore, if an election was held today I'd expect a noticeably bigger swing in a place like Waveney, albeit not big enough to win it.
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batman
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Post by batman on Dec 26, 2021 14:07:03 GMT
I gave up looking after a while as there are so many obviously bollocks projections. How can Airdrie & Shotts be Labour & East Lothian SNP? How can Cheltenham be Conservative not LD? How can Bassetlaw & Dudley North be Labour? And so on and so on.
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Post by graham on Dec 26, 2021 14:14:12 GMT
I gave up looking after a while as there are so many obviously bollocks projections. How can Airdrie & Shotts be Labour & East Lothian SNP? How can Cheltenham be Conservative not LD? How can Bassetlaw & Dudley North be Labour? And so on and so on. Bassetlaw and Dudley North were both Labour in 2017! How do we know that the 2019 results there were not aberrations?
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johng
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Post by johng on Dec 26, 2021 14:20:13 GMT
someone says that this MRP predicts Waveney Labour gain lol Yep, alongside Ceredigion, York Outer, Southend East and both Bournemouth seats. It looks like they've tried to work out how Labour can get a majority without winning back much in Scotland or the Midlands
Ceredigion is quite an interesting one. Whilst a Plaid hold in the next GE is by far the most likely outcome, it could be winnable for Labour in the right circumstances.
The constituency is one in flux. The Lib Dems won over half the vote in 2010 and held on comfortably in 2015, but barely came third last time around. We won double the Lib Dem vote on the regional Senedd list last May.
Plaid won on less than 30% of the vote in 2017. It's not out of the question that we could win with the same percentage if the stars align.
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Post by andrewp on Dec 26, 2021 14:25:09 GMT
I gave up looking after a while as there are so many obviously bollocks projections. How can Airdrie & Shotts be Labour & East Lothian SNP? How can Cheltenham be Conservative not LD? How can Bassetlaw & Dudley North be Labour? And so on and so on. Bath being a Lib Dem/ Labour ultra marginal is a corker.
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Dec 26, 2021 14:26:52 GMT
Yep, alongside Ceredigion, York Outer, Southend East and both Bournemouth seats. It looks like they've tried to work out how Labour can get a majority without winning back much in Scotland or the Midlands
Ceredigion is quite an interesting one. Whilst a Plaid hold in the next GE is by far the most likely outcome, it could be winnable for Labour in the right circumstances.
The constituency is one in flux. The Lib Dems won over half the vote in 2010 and held on comfortably in 2015, but barely came third last time around. We won double the Lib Dem vote on the regional Senedd list last May.
Plaid won on less than 30% of the vote in 2017. It's not out of the question that we could win with the same percentage if the stars align.
But remember it won't just be Ceredigion next time, it will be Ceredigion and Preseli, Pembrokeshire combined (minus a bit) and when the experts do their maths and declare it as a Plaid / Con battleground with Labour a distant third, you watch Labour deliberately tone down their campaign to ensure that a Conservatives doesn't get elected.
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 26, 2021 14:27:34 GMT
I gave up looking after a while as there are so many obviously bollocks projections. How can Airdrie & Shotts be Labour & East Lothian SNP? How can Cheltenham be Conservative not LD? How can Bassetlaw & Dudley North be Labour? And so on and so on. Their projections in the North East and North Yorkshire seem fairly reasonable, and I think I'd agree with nearly all of their projected winners. I'd probably have York Outer as a Conservative hold, and would maybe swap Hexham and Middlesbrough South (the former seems a slightly better Labour prospect now), but all three of those projections are very marginal in their data anyway. But it does seem a lot of their other projections are odd. Oxford West and Abingdon becomes a three way marginal, while Bath becomes a Lib Dem vs Labour one (and Labour almost win)!
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Post by graham on Dec 26, 2021 14:28:40 GMT
I gave up looking after a while as there are so many obviously bollocks projections. How can Airdrie & Shotts be Labour & East Lothian SNP? How can Cheltenham be Conservative not LD? How can Bassetlaw & Dudley North be Labour? And so on and so on. Bath being a Lib Dem/ Labour ultra marginal is a corker. Labour was only a few hundred votes off winning Bath in 1966. In both 1974 elections , it was very much a three-way contest. More recently Labour voters have switched to the LDs on a tactical basis , but the seat does have a substantial underlying Labour vote.
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Post by graham on Dec 26, 2021 14:31:40 GMT
Ceredigion is quite an interesting one. Whilst a Plaid hold in the next GE is by far the most likely outcome, it could be winnable for Labour in the right circumstances.
The constituency is one in flux. The Lib Dems won over half the vote in 2010 and held on comfortably in 2015, but barely came third last time around. We won double the Lib Dem vote on the regional Senedd list last May.
Plaid won on less than 30% of the vote in 2017. It's not out of the question that we could win with the same percentage if the stars align.
But remember it won't just be Ceredigion next time, it will be Ceredigion and Preseli, Pembrokeshire combined (minus a bit) and when the experts do their maths and declare it as a Plaid / Con battleground with Labour a distant third, you watch Labour deliberately tone down their campaign to ensure that a Conservatives doesn't get elected. Only circa 20% of the Preseli seat will be combined with Ceredigion - the bulk becoming part of the new Pembroke seat.
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Post by andrewp on Dec 26, 2021 14:34:09 GMT
Bath being a Lib Dem/ Labour ultra marginal is a corker. Labour was only a few hundred votes off winning Bath in 1966. In both 1974 elections , it was very much a three-way contest. More recently Labour voters have switched to the LDs on a tactical basis , but the seat does have a substantial underlying Labour vote. It does, but there is no obvious reason for them to reverse 40 years of voting Lib Dem next time.
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batman
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Post by batman on Dec 26, 2021 14:58:32 GMT
I gave up looking after a while as there are so many obviously bollocks projections. How can Airdrie & Shotts be Labour & East Lothian SNP? How can Cheltenham be Conservative not LD? How can Bassetlaw & Dudley North be Labour? And so on and so on. Bassetlaw and Dudley North were both Labour in 2017! How do we know that the 2019 results there were not aberrations? they may prove to be up to a point. Actually winning either back in one go, however, is a very tough ask even if Labour is doing well nationally.
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Post by graham on Dec 26, 2021 15:03:56 GMT
Bassetlaw and Dudley North were both Labour in 2017! How do we know that the 2019 results there were not aberrations? they may prove to be up to a point. Actually winning either back in one go, however, is a very tough ask even if Labour is doing well nationally. It would only require reversing the swing which occurred 2017 - 2019
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 26, 2021 15:20:53 GMT
[I gave up looking after a while as there are so many obviously bollocks projections. How can Airdrie & Shotts be Labour & East Lothian SNP? How can Cheltenham be Conservative not LD? How can Bassetlaw & Dudley North be Labour? And so on and so on. East Lothian likely has a lot of tactical voting from Conservatives which might not show up this far out from an election. Bassetlaw and Dudley North both voted Labour in 2017 when Labour were marginally behind nationally so not its too unbelievable they see a Labour surge if Labour are ahead nationally (and Bassetlaw appears to have had some 2019 specific candidate issues). As mentioned earlier, the Lib Dem-Conservative marginals are showing a lot of Labour support which does exist generically but will be squeezed come a general election.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 26, 2021 15:23:40 GMT
Bath being a Lib Dem/ Labour ultra marginal is a corker. YouGov’s 2017 MRP showed a lot of Labour strength that failed to materialise come general election (a very rare significant overshoot by them). Its an ultra remain university constituency so I find it believable a lot of people there could vote Labour (a lot of them won’t by general Election Day of course).
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 26, 2021 15:40:35 GMT
Bath being a Lib Dem/ Labour ultra marginal is a corker. YouGov’s 2017 MRP showed a lot of Labour strength that failed to materialise come general election (a very rare significant overshoot by them). Its an ultra remain university constituency so I find it believable a lot of people there could vote Labour (a lot of them won’t by general Election Day of course). There's also a significant working class element to the seat. Twerton would be solidly Labour if it were a suburb of a northern city or large town, and there are a few other wards in the south west of the city which you'd expect to generate decent Labour votes.
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Post by mattbewilson on Dec 26, 2021 16:04:28 GMT
We are some years from an election so the benefits of MRP are slightly less. I suspect if you're a lib dem you'd be slightly less concerned by this than you would be if it were five days out from the General Election
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