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Post by graham on Jul 4, 2022 19:54:40 GMT
Survation give us UK data - so the GB equivalent would be Lab 44 Con 36.
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Post by andrewp on Jul 8, 2022 13:25:31 GMT
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Jul 8, 2022 16:54:29 GMT
These have a couple of rather helpful questions in the data tables (this was all before Johnson resigning as Conservative leader): Regardless of your current voting intention, would you or would you not consider voting for the following parties in the next general election?Those not intending to vote Conservative
Would consider - 24.5% (35.3% of 2019 Con voters) Would not consider - 67.1% (50.4%) Don't know - 8.4% (14.4%) For other parties (Those not intending to vote for them): - Lab - 32.0% vs 54.6%
- LDm - 34.2% vs 52.0%
- Grn - 31.8% vs 54.4%
Adding those who are planning on voting Conservative to those who would consider voting Tory: 51.5%. In other words, despite everything that's gone on, around half of voters would still either vote or consider voting Conservative (Lab 71.3%, LDm 43.7%, Grn 34.0%).
EDIT: Just a further point, 45% is Labour's highest polling figure in any published poll since Survation on 30 Nov-1 Dec 2017.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,531
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 10, 2022 8:56:51 GMT
Given the Tories actually were polling over 50% in spring 2020, that figure maybe isn't so surprising. What is maybe remarkable is that the "potential" Labour figure is over 71% - btw that is the fabled 20 points ahead
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Post by woollyliberal on Jul 10, 2022 9:12:03 GMT
despite everything that's gone on, around half of voters would still either vote or consider voting Conservative I've canvassed my share of these voters. Some are unaware of what has happened, some don't believe what happened, some don't care. There are lots of voters out there who believe that Johnson is a good person and a good PM. There are voters who believe that no-one else would have done better than Johnson. They haven't looked up the figures. They haven't seen that we had a higher death rate from Covid that other similar countries. They haven't seen the correlation with our repeated late lockdowns. They haven't seen the huge death toll from "Boris' saved Christmas". They don't know that he tried to get his various mistresses in to top jobs. They don't know the half of it. They don't much care either. Ignorance really is bliss. What I do suspect is that if Labour had been in any way a decent opposition, they would know and they would care, at least about some of it.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,531
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 10, 2022 9:15:56 GMT
Any opposition party can only do so much given our media.
That is where the blame really lies, both in a long standing general sense and specifically due to them being so pally with Johnson (who was, after all, "one of them")
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Survation
Jul 10, 2022 9:20:59 GMT
via mobile
Post by aargauer on Jul 10, 2022 9:20:59 GMT
despite everything that's gone on, around half of voters would still either vote or consider voting Conservative I've canvassed my share of these voters. Some are unaware of what has happened, some don't believe what happened, some don't care. There are lots of voters out there who believe that Johnson is a good person and a good PM. There are voters who believe that no-one else would have done better than Johnson. They haven't looked up the figures. They haven't seen that we had a higher death rate from Covid that other similar countries. They haven't seen the correlation with our repeated late lockdowns. They haven't seen the huge death toll from "Boris' saved Christmas". They don't know that he tried to get his various mistresses in to top jobs. They don't know the half of it. They don't much care either. Ignorance really is bliss. What I do suspect is that if Labour had been in any way a decent opposition, they would know and they would care, at least about some of it. Our covid death rate isn't too bad. There are numerous European countries that are worse. That's if you accept the numbers as vaguely reflecting reality. I think it also needs to be taken into account that civil liberties were not as badly impacted as in other countries - well at least for a shorter period.
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Post by andrewp on Jul 10, 2022 9:25:49 GMT
despite everything that's gone on, around half of voters would still either vote or consider voting Conservative I've canvassed my share of these voters. Some are unaware of what has happened, some don't believe what happened, some don't care. There are lots of voters out there who believe that Johnson is a good person and a good PM. There are voters who believe that no-one else would have done better than Johnson. They haven't looked up the figures. They haven't seen that we had a higher death rate from Covid that other similar countries. They haven't seen the correlation with our repeated late lockdowns. They haven't seen the huge death toll from "Boris' saved Christmas". They don't know that he tried to get his various mistresses in to top jobs. They don't know the half of it. They don't much care either. Ignorance really is bliss. What I do suspect is that if Labour had been in any way a decent opposition, they would know and they would care, at least about some of it. I have a friend who would never vote Tory ( he votes Lib Dem), who is sick of the government, but genuinely likes Boris. He still says ‘ who could have done better’. He doesn’t like ‘ the government’ and thinks they are all corrupt, but will stick up for Boris to the end. He really doesn’t like Keir Starmer- the captain hindsight tag is all he associates with him.
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 10, 2022 9:30:09 GMT
despite everything that's gone on, around half of voters would still either vote or consider voting Conservative I've canvassed my share of these voters. Some are unaware of what has happened, some don't believe what happened, some don't care. There are lots of voters out there who believe that Johnson is a good person and a good PM. There are voters who believe that no-one else would have done better than Johnson. They haven't looked up the figures. They haven't seen that we had a higher death rate from Covid that other similar countries. They haven't seen the correlation with our repeated late lockdowns. They haven't seen the huge death toll from "Boris' saved Christmas". They don't know that he tried to get his various mistresses in to top jobs. They don't know the half of it. They don't much care either. Ignorance really is bliss. What I do suspect is that if Labour had been in any way a decent opposition, they would know and they would care, at least about some of it. I don't think that Labour have been a particularly effective opposition. But I think the Tories have a relatively high floor. People who will vote Tory pretty much no matter what. And those people really don't care, or think that anyone else would be worse, or no matter what they do, will always opt to vote Conservative.
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 10, 2022 9:46:34 GMT
despite everything that's gone on, around half of voters would still either vote or consider voting Conservative I've canvassed my share of these voters. Some are unaware of what has happened, some don't believe what happened, some don't care. There are lots of voters out there who believe that Johnson is a good person and a good PM. There are voters who believe that no-one else would have done better than Johnson. They haven't looked up the figures. They haven't seen that we had a higher death rate from Covid that other similar countries. They haven't seen the correlation with our repeated late lockdowns. They haven't seen the huge death toll from "Boris' saved Christmas". They don't know that he tried to get his various mistresses in to top jobs. They don't know the half of it. They don't much care either. Ignorance really is bliss. What I do suspect is that if Labour had been in any way a decent opposition, they would know and they would care, at least about some of it. The really sad matter is that you and a large number of people actually believe that total bollocks.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,531
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 10, 2022 10:40:00 GMT
I've canvassed my share of these voters. Some are unaware of what has happened, some don't believe what happened, some don't care. There are lots of voters out there who believe that Johnson is a good person and a good PM. There are voters who believe that no-one else would have done better than Johnson. They haven't looked up the figures. They haven't seen that we had a higher death rate from Covid that other similar countries. They haven't seen the correlation with our repeated late lockdowns. They haven't seen the huge death toll from "Boris' saved Christmas". They don't know that he tried to get his various mistresses in to top jobs. They don't know the half of it. They don't much care either. Ignorance really is bliss. What I do suspect is that if Labour had been in any way a decent opposition, they would know and they would care, at least about some of it. I don't think that Labour have been a particularly effective opposition. But I think the Tories have a relatively high floor. People who will vote Tory pretty much no matter what. And those people really don't care, or think that anyone else would be worse, or no matter what they do, will always opt to vote Conservative. And even if the effects are now starting to wear off more generally, Brexit means that Tory "floor" may be higher than before for some time to come.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,051
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 10, 2022 12:54:52 GMT
I don't think that Labour have been a particularly effective opposition. But I think the Tories have a relatively high floor. People who will vote Tory pretty much no matter what. And those people really don't care, or think that anyone else would be worse, or no matter what they do, will always opt to vote Conservative. And even if the effects are now starting to wear off more generally, Brexit means that Tory "floor" may be higher than before for some time to come. Worth noting even in 1997 the GB Tory share was 31.4%,Labour's post war 2 lowest 28.3% 1983 and 29.7% 2010
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 5, 2022 10:04:03 GMT
and
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,531
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 5, 2022 10:11:28 GMT
Fair to say she has her work cut out.
Perhaps the rumours she is - despite previous statements - going to nick Labour's energy cap plan almost wholesale are not so surprising.
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Post by lackeroftalent on Sept 5, 2022 10:43:23 GMT
Full numbers (to one decimal place!):-
Lab 45.9% Con 28.9% LDm 11.1% SNP 4.1% Grn 2.7% Ref 1.4% UKIP 0.7% PC 0.5% Alba 0.4% Reclaim 0.3% Some unnamed party 4.0%
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Post by woollyliberal on Sept 29, 2022 16:38:29 GMT
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Post by greenhert on Sept 29, 2022 16:45:25 GMT
By my estimate, such figures in a general election would knock the Conservatives down to just 150 seats (taking tactical voting into account).
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 1,961
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Post by ColinJ on Sept 29, 2022 18:33:22 GMT
Survation must be furious that the YouGov poll came out at the same time.
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batman
Labour
Posts: 8,695
Member is Online
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Post by batman on Sept 29, 2022 20:28:34 GMT
Well, maybe, but it would be possible for them to argue that their figures have more credibility than YouGov's. I still find it hard to believe that Labour would or could get 54% of the vote in a general election, even if it were held tomorrow. The high 40s, a little more plausible.
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Post by afleitch on Oct 19, 2022 14:52:54 GMT
Survation have dumped some polls etc for Greater Manchester, South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire and West Midlands. As expected massive swings with Labour projected to win every seat. Even Cheadle and Hazel Grove.
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