jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,839
|
Post by jamie on Feb 6, 2022 13:13:53 GMT
Rigging elections at least has a clear purpose to it. Inventing polls seems to me to be an incredibly pointless exercise, even more so if you get caught doing it There are plenty gullible journalists/readers who will fall for ‘internal polling’ (if anything, many people will assume its better than public polling), but the trick is to keep it anonymous, not name the actual firms who can easily publicly deny it.
|
|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 6, 2022 13:16:35 GMT
The Times used to be a proper newspaper that checked stories before printing (admittedly a bit of a distant memory!) The Hitler Diaries say hi!
|
|
CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,232
|
Survation
Feb 6, 2022 15:41:45 GMT
via mobile
Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 6, 2022 15:41:45 GMT
The Times used to be a proper newspaper that checked stories before printing (admittedly a bit of a distant memory!) The Hitler Diaries say hi! Fondly remember Michael Foot's reference to the "Forger's Gazette" at his last Conference as Labour Leader (The good old days when the Leaders speech was referred to as the Parliamentary Report).
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 6, 2022 16:19:37 GMT
The Hitler Diaries say hi! Fondly remember Michael Foot's reference to the "Forger's Gazette" at his last Conference as Labour Leader (The good old days when the Leaders speech was referred to as the Parliamentary Report). Don't forget the Parnell letters, and the fact that The Times was entirely sure the 'Protocols of the Learned Elders of Zion' were genuine a year before their correspondent identified them as poor quality fabrication. " The Times has always been a sucker for forgeries" - Bernard Porter, Plots and Paranoia: A History of Political Espionage in Britain 1790-1988.
|
|
|
Post by london(ex)tory on Feb 6, 2022 17:07:31 GMT
With a distinct lack of actual polls out this weekend, it's maybe not that surprising someone has had to make some up instead...?
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,483
|
Post by The Bishop on Feb 7, 2022 11:04:34 GMT
There was actually a new Deltapoll over the weekend, but full details are (as often with them) taking a while to emerge.
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Feb 23, 2022 18:26:44 GMT
|
|
|
Post by manchesterman on Feb 23, 2022 20:22:20 GMT
Have to say, this is shocking for Starmer, as I dont see what more he can do to improve his figure (in this category)
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Feb 23, 2022 20:59:47 GMT
Have to say, this is shocking for Starmer, as I dont see what more he can do to improve his figure (in this category) On the contrary, don't the Conservatives usually have a much wider lead on issues like national security and defence than they do overall? If that's the case, then if Starmer is favoured in this crisis, he's probably well ahead on most other issues.
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Feb 23, 2022 21:41:19 GMT
Have to say, this is shocking for Starmer, as I dont see what more he can do to improve his figure (in this category) I disagree, it’s very unusual for a non leader, be it President or Prime Minister, to lead an incumbent on matters like this (which is possibly why Michael Foot abandoned his lifelong pacifism to support Thatcher over the Falklands). Equally it only seriously matters on issues that are top of people’s priorities - again Thatcher and Major pretty nearly always trailed Kinnock on managing the NHS and education, but more people prioritised the economy, taxation and possibly even law and order where he trailed. FWIW apparently the Australian Labor Party are already in near panic mode that this could make Morrison look statesmanlike and hand him May’s election.
|
|
|
Post by redtony on Feb 23, 2022 21:47:54 GMT
Greens on a unbelievable low of 3 that is no doubt whyLabour is on 42 Starmer attackung Tories on Sanctions may have something to do with it.
|
|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 23, 2022 21:57:25 GMT
Greens on a unbelievable low of 3 that is no doubt whyLabour is on 42 Starmer attackung Tories on Sanctions may have something to do with it. At the 2019 GE the Greens appear to have polled 2.6%. Not sure of the UK/GB, GPEW/GPS niceties but suggests 3% is not unbelievable.
|
|
clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
|
Post by clyde1998 on Mar 18, 2022 9:19:43 GMT
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,839
|
Post by jamie on Mar 25, 2022 12:11:07 GMT
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,692
|
Post by iain on Mar 25, 2022 12:29:08 GMT
In the Lib Dem case it seems like it’s basically due to the unrealistic tactical unwind we are becoming used to seeing in these MRPs - more seats where this can happen in the south. Funny how it once again has Cities of London & Westminster being one of our best results, a seat I fully expect us to collapse in. This does look *slightly* more realistic when it comes to the SNP than some others we’ve seen, but does retain the bizarreness of Labour doing better in Edinburgh East than South.
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,839
|
Post by jamie on Mar 25, 2022 14:14:49 GMT
Comparisons with the 2019 result are difficult given Survation have broken down their sample into more categories, but a few observations can be made nonetheless: There's a bigger swing to Labour among older voters. The gender gap has significantly narrowed. Survation found the Conservative lead among men about 20-25% higher than women in 2019, now its only 8% higher. There has been a big Brexit dealignment. A massive swing among Leave voters to Labour is neutered by no swing among remainers (the Conservatives are up among remain voters!). A lot of the education divide is age. When you separate out the over 65s, Labour seems to have a small lead among those with no-lower qualifications, while having a big lead among those with higher qualifications. So still a decent gap, but a much smaller one than normally presented in the cross-tabs.
|
|
clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
|
Post by clyde1998 on Mar 25, 2022 15:30:34 GMT
It looks highly unrealistic when it comes to my constituency (which is typical of MRPs). I imagine the Lib Dems will recover in the South come a general election, probably at Labour's expense, as tactical voting comes into play. It's unsurprising their fall comes in the South, as that's where they have the most potential to lose votes.
|
|
clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
|
Post by clyde1998 on Mar 25, 2022 16:00:14 GMT
Comparisons with the 2019 result are difficult given Survation have broken down their sample into more categories, but a few observations can be made nonetheless: There's a bigger swing to Labour among older voters. The gender gap has significantly narrowed. Survation found the Conservative lead among men about 20-25% higher than women in 2019, now its only 8% higher. There has been a big Brexit dealignment. A massive swing among Leave voters to Labour is neutered by no swing among remainers (the Conservatives are up among remain voters!). A lot of the education divide is age. When you separate out the over 65s, Labour seems to have a small lead among those with no-lower qualifications, while having a big lead among those with higher qualifications. So still a decent gap, but a much smaller one than normally presented in the cross-tabs. Some of the education divide is age. The Conservatives have been doing better among those with no qualifications than those with degrees in each age group. In the most recent British Election Study data, the Conservatives were on 57.2% among graduates aged 66 or older compared to 69.9% among those without qualifications; the numbers among 26-35 year olds were 28.0% and 42.6% respectively. In each age group (excluding 18-25), there's between a 10pp and 15pp reduction in Conservative among each age group when comparing graduates to non-qualified individuals - so the Conservative vote increases with age at a similar level regardless. Of course, younger people are more likely to have degrees than older people - so directly comparing the VIs of all graduates to all without qualifications will have a sizable age composition difference.
|
|
clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
|
Post by clyde1998 on Mar 25, 2022 16:09:15 GMT
In the Lib Dem case it seems like it’s basically due to the unrealistic tactical unwind we are becoming used to seeing in these MRPs - more seats where this can happen in the south. Funny how it once again has Cities of London & Westminster being one of our best results, a seat I fully expect us to collapse in. This does look *slightly* more realistic when it comes to the SNP than some others we’ve seen, but does retain the bizarreness of Labour doing better in Edinburgh East than South.I wonder how much of that is a result of tactical voting counting for almost nothing in MRP. I recall at the 2016 Scottish Parliamentary election, the Conservatives won the most votes in Edinburgh Southern on the list (albeit, with less than a third of the votes and prior to the Brexit vote) - but shows the Conservatives have a decent base in the area should they have 'moderate' leaders. Additionally, the Lib Dems have had periods of strength there too. That's in contrast to Edinburgh East has only really had a history of either the SNP or Labour doing well. Of course, come an actual election, Labour will do better in Edinburgh South than East, but those may be a factor in those odd results in Edinburgh.
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Mar 31, 2022 15:08:06 GMT
|
|