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Post by gwynthegriff on May 4, 2020 16:53:38 GMT
The Lib Dems appeal for the last year has been based around a battle that has been lost and that nobody's talking about anymore. To see them down a few points is hardly surprising. Having a leader nobody knows probably doesn't help either. As for the government, they will probably be judged ultimately not on how they manage the virus, but more on how the deal with the economic fallout from it afterwards. Economically, they may have dodged a bullet in terms of the potential negative effects of Brexit being more hidden, but they've got a fucking massive missile coming towards them to deal with. We might be doing a bit better if we actually had a leader! How are you fixed Tony ?
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,282
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Post by Tony Otim on May 4, 2020 20:02:06 GMT
We might be doing a bit better if we actually had a leader! How are you fixed Tony ? I think being a Green party member probably rules me out, but if you're really desperate... Oh, I see, you meant the other Tony...
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Jack
Reform Party
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Post by Jack on May 4, 2020 20:11:44 GMT
You, and people like you, tried to use your position to quash the referendum result. You, in particular, used your taxpayer funded position for life to compare our open and tolerant little island to 1930's Germany. People noticed. You're reaping the whirlwind. Enjoy! I suppose you are the kind of stupid prat that keeps me going! Good job you're not the leader, eh?
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on May 4, 2020 22:24:12 GMT
I think being a Green party member probably rules me out, but if you're really desperate... Oh, I see, you meant the other Tony... I reckon you could probably convince a majority of Lib Dems that the requirement for the Leader to be a member of the party is a needlessly aggressive and oppressive stance that threatens to trigger a number of individuals. For a modern, progressive party looking to break down cultural barriers a leader from outside the party could be sold as the way forward.
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Post by tonygreaves on May 8, 2020 16:04:14 GMT
There was an attempt to allow the leader of the party to be a person who is not an MP but that was sensibly kicked out. When the daft current provision for interim co-leaders came in I know not - I should have been paying more attention!
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Deleted
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May 8, 2020 16:17:48 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2020 16:17:48 GMT
There was an attempt to allow the leader of the party to be a person who is not an MP but that was sensibly kicked out. When the daft current provision for interim co-leaders came in I know not - I should have been paying more attention! tbf I think that's quite a good idea for a party with only a dozen MPs. I think my friend James Baillie spoke in favour of it at conference.
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Post by hullenedge on May 26, 2020 17:23:53 GMT
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Deleted
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May 26, 2020 19:13:51 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 26, 2020 19:13:51 GMT
If anyone is getting over excited by comedy results
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,116
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Post by Jack on Jun 6, 2020 17:58:02 GMT
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Deleted
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Jun 6, 2020 19:00:50 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2020 19:00:50 GMT
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Post by bjornhattan on Jun 6, 2020 19:24:50 GMT
Best for Labour since the general election. Tories comfortably largest party but no overall majority if repeated nationally. Question is in which region the swing is largest & smallest. While we should take the crosstabs with a massive vat of salt, they break down as follows: London: Lab 52 - Con 35 South: Lab 31 - Con 50 Midlands: Lab 41 - Con 50 North: Lab 49 - Con 41 Scotland: Lab 21 - Con 23 (SNP 48) Wales: Lab 44 - Con 39 (Plaid 12) Obviously the error margins on those are huge, but by my reckoning, the Con to Lab swings in each of those are as follows: London: 1% South: 6% Midlands: 6% North: 3% Scotland: 2% Wales: 0% Are those figures believable? I'm not sure, but intuitively they feel right - I'd expect Keir's best performances to be in the South, though perhaps I wouldn't expect his worst performances to be in London or Wales. There is a huge error in all of those figures though, suggesting if Keir has more appeal to some regions than others it's not that big a difference.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2020 19:34:41 GMT
Best for Labour since the general election. Tories comfortably largest party but no overall majority if repeated nationally. Question is in which region the swing is largest & smallest. While we should take the crosstabs with a massive vat of salt, they break down as follows: London: Lab 52 - Con 35 South: Lab 31 - Con 50 Midlands: Lab 41 - Con 50 North: Lab 49 - Con 41 Scotland: Lab 21 - Con 23 (SNP 48) Wales: Lab 44 - Con 39 (Plaid 12) Obviously the error margins on those are huge, but by my reckoning, the Con to Lab swings in each of those are as follows: London: 1% South: 6% Midlands: 6% North: 3% Scotland: 2% Wales: 0% Are those figures believable? I'm not sure, but intuitively they feel right - I'd expect Keir's best performances to be in the South, though perhaps I wouldn't expect his worst performances to be in London or Wales. There is a huge error in all of those figures though, suggesting if Keir has more appeal to some regions than others it's not that big a difference. beware the cross breaks for they are dark and full of terror With London Labour are at an all time high. It might be we see Labour pick up seats because of how the vote differs in different boroughs like Harrow and Barnet
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 6, 2020 20:50:43 GMT
Indeed. Labour could stand still and pick up 2-3 London seats simply because the anti-semitic issue is no longer an issue anymore. As for the rest, even in a poll where Labour were ahead they would be unlikely to gain more than about 10-12 seats in Scotland & wales combined. There arent many seats in the SE & SW where they are in striking distance within 1 election cycle, so to my thinking Labour's medium-term goals should be:
1) as an absolute minimum goal, winning back all the "red wall" seats 2) turning the tide in the Midlands where the Labour vote has been slowly eroding since 97. [this poll at least will give some encouragement in this regard]
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Post by justin124 on Jun 6, 2020 21:08:31 GMT
Indeed. Labour could stand still and pick up 2-3 London seats simply because the anti-semitic issue is no longer an issue anymore. As for the rest, even in a poll where Labour were ahead they would be unlikely to gain more than about 10-12 seats in Scotland & wales combined. There arent many seats in the SE & SW where they are in striking distance within 1 election cycle, so to my thinking Labour's medium-term goals should be: 1) as an absolute minimum goal, winning back all the "red wall" seats 2) turning the tide in the Midlands where the Labour vote has been slowly eroding since 97. [this poll at least will give some encouragement in this regard] On tonight's figures Labour would pick up 8 Tory seats in Wales and possibly 1 from Plaid.Moreover, if Labour is close to 40% across GB , I would expect a vote share not far off 30% in Scotland - eg 2017 - and be well placed to regain seats lost in 2019 there - and indeed to make further gains beyond that.
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Jun 6, 2020 21:12:42 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 6, 2020 21:12:42 GMT
Indeed. Labour could stand still and pick up 2-3 London seats simply because the anti-semitic issue is no longer an issue anymore. As for the rest, even in a poll where Labour were ahead they would be unlikely to gain more than about 10-12 seats in Scotland & wales combined. There arent many seats in the SE & SW where they are in striking distance within 1 election cycle, so to my thinking Labour's medium-term goals should be: 1) as an absolute minimum goal, winning back all the "red wall" seats 2) turning the tide in the Midlands where the Labour vote has been slowly eroding since 97. [this poll at least will give some encouragement in this regard] On tonight's figures Labour would pick up 8 Tory seats in Wales and possibly 1 from Plaid.Moreover, if Labour is close to 40% across GB , I would expect a vote share not far off 30% in Scotland - eg 2017 - and be well placed to regain seats lost in 2019 there and indeed to make further gains. This is going to be the issue - where are these extra votes coming from? It's quite possible that they will be disproportionately where they don't want them. Exiting Labour seats and posh areas where Labour can never win
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Post by justin124 on Jun 6, 2020 21:18:04 GMT
On tonight's figures Labour would pick up 8 Tory seats in Wales and possibly 1 from Plaid.Moreover, if Labour is close to 40% across GB , I would expect a vote share not far off 30% in Scotland - eg 2017 - and be well placed to regain seats lost in 2019 there - and indeed to make further gains beyond that. the 8 seats would be Bridgend, Vale of Glamorgan, Delyn, Wrexham, S Clwyd, Vale of Clwyd, Aberconwy & Ynys Mon. I make it no Labour gains from Plaid at this stage Arfon might be a possibility for Labour at Plaid expense.
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Deleted
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Jun 6, 2020 21:52:45 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2020 21:52:45 GMT
I think Labour regaining all the red wall seats will be a long term goal there are seats now that switched in a way that have made them very difficult to regain. Take Penistone & Stocksbridge. 7% swing even if we do well at the next election you must bare in mind only 4 PMs in post war Britain have achieved a 5% swing.
I think even on these numbers we only regain one seat in Stoke. I could be wrong. There are all those seats like NE Derbyshire which must be distant memories now.
There are seats we should gain without much difficulty; Blyth Valley, Bridgend, etc. seats that really should be Labour seats but there are a swathe of seats that are now harder to regain than seats we never had in 1997
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Jun 6, 2020 21:54:12 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 6, 2020 21:54:12 GMT
I think Labour regaining all the red wall seats will be a long term goal there are seats now that switched in a way that have made them very difficult to regain. Take Penistone & Stocksbridge. 7% swing even if we do well at the next election you must bare in mind only 4 PMs in post war Britain have achieved a 5% swing. I think even on these numbers we only regain one seat in Stoke. I could be wrong. There are all those seats like NE Derbyshire which must be distant memories now. There are seats we should gain without much difficulty; Blyth Valley, Bridgend, etc. seats that really should be Labour seats but there are a swathe of seats that are now harder to regain than seats we never had in 1997 You get this but really, the complacency of some Starmer fans is much the same as some Corbynites post 2017
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 6, 2020 21:58:48 GMT
On tonight's figures Labour would pick up 8 Tory seats in Wales and possibly 1 from Plaid.Moreover, if Labour is close to 40% across GB , I would expect a vote share not far off 30% in Scotland - eg 2017 - and be well placed to regain seats lost in 2019 there - and indeed to make further gains beyond that. the 8 seats would be Bridgend, Vale of Glamorgan, Delyn, Wrexham, S Clwyd, Vale of Clwyd, Aberconwy & Ynys Mon. I make it no Labour gains from Plaid at this stage OK lets say they gain 8 seats in Wales and 8 in Scotland - that is hardly doing more than putting a dent in their majority, so my original point stands. Labour needs to see a recovery in England to get anywhere. Firstly regaining the red wall seats then targeting the "soft" Tory support in W & E midlands.
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Post by justin124 on Jun 6, 2020 22:08:01 GMT
I think Labour regaining all the red wall seats will be a long term goal there are seats now that switched in a way that have made them very difficult to regain. Take Penistone & Stocksbridge. 7% swing even if we do well at the next election you must bare in mind only 4 PMs in post war Britain have achieved a 5% swing. I think even on these numbers we only regain one seat in Stoke. I could be wrong. There are all those seats like NE Derbyshire which must be distant memories now. There are seats we should gain without much difficulty; Blyth Valley, Bridgend, etc. seats that really should be Labour seats but there are a swathe of seats that are now harder to regain than seats we never had in 1997 But most of those seats swung far more than the national swing in 2019 - some massively so. The two factors generally held responsible were Corbyn and Brexit - neither of which has much relevance now.I suspect that seats such as Penistone- Grimsby- Sedgefield- Workington - Don Valley - Rother valley etc are likely to swing back as sharply as they swung away last year - notwithstanding longterm demographic trends in some seats.Why would seats which voted Labour under Milliband in 2015 now be beyond reach?
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