Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on May 15, 2019 20:22:43 GMT
By-Election:
NEATH PORT TALBOT UA; Resolven (Lab died)
Candidates:
FRANCIS, Mark Neal (Labour)
HIPPSLEY, Andrew (Plaid Cymru)
JONES, Jonathan Liam (Conservative)
KINGSTON-JONES, Sheila (Liberal Democrat)
LEWIS, Dean (Independent)
2017: Lab 461; Ind 388; PC 265
2012: Lab 729; PC 278
2008: Lab 611; PC 469
2004: Lab 729; PC 297
CURRENT COUNCIL: Lab 40 + this vacancy; PC 15; Ind 6 + 1 vacancy; LD 1
Deferred Election:
TENDRING DC, St Osyth (2 seats)
Candidates:
OSBEN, Tracey (Labour)
SKEELS, Dawn Carole (Conservative)
SKEELS, Mick (Conservative)
TALBOT, Michael John (Independent)
WHITE, John Frederick (Independent)
First election on new boundaries.
Results for old St Osyth & Point Clear Ward:
2015: Ind 1159, 1059; Con 635, 579, Lab 362, 273
2011: Ind 637, 633; Con 484, 394; Lab 361, 265
2007: Ind 507, 506; Con 507, 433; Lab 313, 308
2003: Ind 680, 655; Con 366
John White and Michael Talbot were elected in 2003, with White top. He then lost his seat in 2007 by 1 vote, before re-gaining it in 2011 and keeping it in 2015. Talbot has come top in every election since 2007. Tracey Obsen has stood here for Labour in every election since 2007.
Current Council: Con 16; Ind 8; Lab 6; UKIP 5; Tendring First 4; Holland on Sea & Eastcliff Matters 3; Tendring Independents 3; LD 2; 2 vacancies
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on May 23, 2019 12:37:42 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 23, 2019 22:33:53 GMT
Resolven turnout 50.38%.
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Post by middleenglander on May 23, 2019 22:36:57 GMT
Does this give us a clue about the European election? Turnout in 2017 was 48%. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2019 22:37:01 GMT
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Post by greenhert on May 23, 2019 22:44:34 GMT
Does this give us a clue about the European election? A small clue, yes. However, the Independent's renown or lack thereof will also be a factor in terms of turnout. |
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Post by middleenglander on May 23, 2019 22:46:24 GMT
Does this give us a clue about the European election? A small clue, yes. However, the Independent's renown or lack thereof will also be a factor in terms of turnout. Some 1,200 votes to count tonight. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 23, 2019 22:51:51 GMT
Does this give us a clue about the European election? Turnout in 2017 was 48%. Maybe, maybe not. They do have a wider choice of parties this time (eg. Tories and Lib Dems are standing unlike before) so more incentive to turn up and vote. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on May 23, 2019 22:56:12 GMT
Does this give us a clue about the European election? Turnout in 2017 was 48%. Maybe, maybe not. They do have a wider choice of parties this time (eg. Tories and Lib Dems are standing unlike before) so more incentive to turn up and vote. And just reading a thread on Twitter, Plaid seem to have put a fair amount of work in; whether or not that’s normal for them in that area I don’t know, but if, all of a sudden they’re visible, that again may bump an extra couple of percent on turnout. |
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Post by andrew111 on May 23, 2019 22:59:52 GMT
Does this give us a clue about the European election? Turnout in 2017 was 48%. Maybe, maybe not. They do have a wider choice of parties this time (eg. Tories and Lib Dems are standing unlike before) so more incentive to turn up and vote. well, it would be a very unusual turnout for a local by-election so I think we can conclude it is Euro related but probably with all the local parties focusing their Euro campaign on these poor voters! |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 23, 2019 23:01:24 GMT
Maybe, maybe not. They do have a wider choice of parties this time (eg. Tories and Lib Dems are standing unlike before) so more incentive to turn up and vote. And just reading a thread on Twitter, Plaid seem to have put a fair amount of work in; whether or not that’s normal for them in that area I don’t know, but if, all of a sudden they’re visible, that again may bump an extra couple of percent on turnout. Up until last time it had been a Labour v Plaid straight fight. Then an independent intervened and Plaid finished third. They may be sore about that, but it doesn't suggest a win for them. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 23, 2019 23:07:27 GMT
TENDRING St Osyth
TALBOT, Michael John (Independent) 856
WHITE, John Frederick (Independent) 850
SKEELS, Dawn Carole (Conservative) 437
SKEELS, Mick (Conservative) 430
OSBEN, Tracey (Labour) 177
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on May 23, 2019 23:07:32 GMT
And just reading a thread on Twitter, Plaid seem to have put a fair amount of work in; whether or not that’s normal for them in that area I don’t know, but if, all of a sudden they’re visible, that again may bump an extra couple of percent on turnout. Up until last time it had been a Labour v Plaid straight fight. Then an independent intervened and Plaid finished third. They may be sore about that, but it doesn't suggest a win for them. To be fair the few people involved in the conversation I was lurking around weren’t really expecting a Plaid win, but were somewhat uncertain as it’s a very Brexit-y place, and there was a lot of “we’re voting for Farage” in the Euro election but those same people were undecided in the Council by-election. |
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
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Post by andrea on May 23, 2019 23:09:04 GMT
Indy win in Neath. 699 votes out of 1179
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 23, 2019 23:10:47 GMT
If you use the averages method for St Osyth:
Ind 58.3%
C 29.6%
Lab 12.1%
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 23, 2019 23:20:31 GMT
NEATH PORT TALBOT Resolven
Said on Twitter to be:
LEWIS, Dean (Independent) 699
FRANCIS, Mark Neal (Labour) 293
HIPPSLEY, Andrew (Plaid Cymru) 121
JONES, Jonathan Liam (Conservative) 34
KINGSTON-JONES, Sheila (Liberal Democrat) 23
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Post by middleenglander on May 23, 2019 23:36:53 GMT
Neath Port Talbot, Resolven - Independent gain from Labour| Party | 2019 votes | 2019 share | since 2017 | since 2012 | since 2008 | | Independent | 699 | 59.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 293 | 25.0% | -16.3% | -47.4% | -31.5% | Plaid Cymru | 121 | 10.3% | -13.4% | -17.3% | -33.1% | Conservative | 34 | 2.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 23 | 2.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Previous Independent |
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| -34.8% |
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| Total votes | 1,170 |
| 105% | 116% | 108% |
Swing not particularly meaning unless Independents are comparable; then Labour to Independent ~ 20% since 2017 Council now 40 Labour, 15 Plaid Cymru, 7 Independent, 1 Liberal Democrat (sitting with Independents), 1 Vacant Tendring, St Osyth - 2 Independents elected | Party | 2019 "top"
votes | 2019 "second"
votes
| 2019 average
votes | 2019 share | Independent | 856 | 850 | 853 | 58.3% | Conservative | 437 | 430 | 434 | 29.6% | Labour | 177 |
| 177 | 12.1% | Total votes | 1,470 | 1,280 | 1,464 |
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New seat Council now 16 Conservative, 8 Independent, 6 Labour, 5 UKIP, 4 Tendring First, 3 Tendring Independent, 3 Residents, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 Foundation
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 24, 2019 11:46:03 GMT
Any news from St Mary's?
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 24, 2019 11:57:21 GMT
Independent win, at a guess. |
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Post by andrewp on May 24, 2019 11:58:35 GMT
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