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Post by finsobruce on May 9, 2019 7:24:34 GMT
Who are GOOD? They are now the 3rd placed party in the West Cape. A split from the DA lead by Patricia De Lille, who had founded a party called the Independent Democrats which merged with the DA in 2010. She is a former mayor of Cape Town. |
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Post by Andrew_S on May 9, 2019 17:54:50 GMT
Might be interesting to compare the number of votes for the ANC since 1994 with the overall population of South Africa. (Difficult to find electorate data).
1994: 41m / 12.2m votes = 30%
1999: 45m / 10.6m votes = 24%
2004: 48m / 10.9m votes = 23%
2009: 51m / 11.7m votes = 23%
2014: 54m / 11.4 votes = 21%
2019: 58m / ?
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Post by Andrew_S on May 9, 2019 22:11:54 GMT
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Post by matureleft on May 10, 2019 6:13:33 GMT
DA appears to have gone backwards with the biggest progress being made by EFF and VF+, the latter being essentially an Afrikaner party.
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johng
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Post by johng on May 10, 2019 14:01:24 GMT
91% of the results in now. Most of the votes still out are in urban areas. However, a clearer picture is emerging.
The ANC are down and for the first time below 60%. That said, I think it's a fairly good results for them.
The DA have gone backwards. Where have they lost votes to? Well, it's going to partially be to minor parties - but it seems the VF+ that has gained most.
The VF+ have stormed ahead in this election more than doubling their vote. This is impressive for a narrow Afrikaner issues party.
The EFF have done very well. Far from fizzling out like COPE and others before, it seems like this party is here for the long-run.
The IFP is up after a long decline for them. The party that splintered from them is down dramatically this time round. Though it looks like Zulu interest parties are down on 2014 which is surprising as the ANC no longer have a Zulu leader.
The biggest loser though seems to be turnout.
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Post by Andrew_S on May 10, 2019 16:04:18 GMT
91% of the results in now. Most of the votes still out are in urban areas. However, a clearer picture is emerging. The ANC are down and for the first time below 60%. That said, I think it's a fairly good results for them. The DA have gone backwards. Where have they lost votes to? Well, it's going to partially be to minor parties - but it seems the VF+ that has gained most. The VF+ have stormed ahead in this election more than doubling their vote. This is impressive for a narrow Afrikaner issues party. The EFF have done very well. Far from fizzling out like COPE and others before, it seems like this party is here for the long-run. The IFP is up after a long decline for them. The party that splintered from them is down dramatically this time round. Though it looks like Zulu interest parties are down on 2014 which is surprising as the ANC no longer have a Zulu leader. The biggest loser though seems to be turnout. It's a reasonably good result for the ANC if you focus on their percentage share, but it's a bad result if you look at the raw figures. In 1994 they got 12 million votes when the population of the country was about 40 million, this time they're going to get about 9.5 million votes when the population of the country is almost 60 million. As you say turnout is down and the number of registered voters is also down. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 11, 2019 0:21:32 GMT
The first two provincial legislatures have finished counting:
Northern Cape
ANC — 18 seats (-2)
DA — 8 (+1)
EFF — 3 (+1)
VF+ — 1 (+1)
COPE — 0 (-1)
Others — 0 (-)
The worst result since 1994 for the ANC although they still won in every district, but only just the best result ever for the DA too (by 1.62% or 272 votes). EFF make progress outside of their eastern heartlands, but in one corner of the country where it's forever 1988, VF+ got 84.88% (compared to 2.68% province-wide) to help it to one of its best results and a return to the legislature.
Once highly fancied ANC breakaway Congress of the People are no longer flavour of the month and fall out of the Assembly. The result ensures inexplicably popular 'Fast Food Premier' and weathervane (she defected from the Nasionale Party in 1992 once the writing was on the wall) Sylvia Lucas will still be in office in Kimberley.
Western Cape
DA — 24 seats (-2)
ANC — 12 (-2)
EFF — 2 (+1)
Good — 1 (+1)
ACDP — 1 (-)
VF+ — 1 (+1)
Al Jama-ah — 1 (+1)
Others — 0 (-)
The DA retain their majority, but lose votes and seats for the first time compared to five years earlier. Alan Winde will stay on as Premier. The ANC suffer their worst result but easily remain the official opposition. They topped the poll only in Cederberg, although 3 further northern municipalities put them first in the National Assembly vote.
EFF almost double their score from last time and advance with an extra MPP. Ex-mayor of Cape Town Patricia 'Aunty Pat' de Lille will enter the Provincial Parliament alone via her new personalist vehicle. The socially conservative African Christian Democrats got more votes than they ever have before and were perhaps unlucky not to increase their representation.
The Freedom Front couldn't reach the heights of 1994, but improved enough to return to the legislature following a two-decade absence. Let's hope their representative isn't placed next to that of Al Jama-ah in the chamber, a party openly calling for Shariah law who put on an extra 4,500 votes to creep over the threshold this time.
ICOSA, who came eighth overall and didn't even win a seat, won the central Kannaland municipality with 38.9%, an improvement on 2014 when they also came first there. It appears it was founded – and continues to be led by – two former ANC activists from the area. They are the largest party on the local council there as well.
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Post by Andrew_S on May 11, 2019 0:38:46 GMT
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on May 11, 2019 0:47:44 GMT
Depending on how seat allocations work out, not that niche... |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 12, 2019 2:21:05 GMT
The rest of the provinces are in now. Despite the fact it took longest to count, we might as well start with the big prize:
Gauteng
ANC – 37 (-3)
DA – 20 (-3)
EFF – 11 (+3)
VF+ – 3 (+2)
IFP – 1 (-)
ACDP – 1 (+1)
Others – 0
The ANC manage to scrape an overall majority in the face of their worst result by any metric. They ended on 50.19% of the vote, but would probably have had to dip below 49.7% to be denied in terms of seats, so David Makhura will remain Premier. The DA were not the main beneficiaries as they fell back, with their leader from 2014 now the party's top candidate at the national level. Solly Msimanga, in comparison, has proved a disappointment. They won only one municipality, that of Midvaal in the south. EFF continue their advance, VF+ their revival. The latter had their best result since 1994. The IFP got 4,023 more votes than last time to hold onto their seat, and the ACDP break back into the Assembly after a one-term absence thanks to 3,409 additional votes compared to 5 years ago.
KwaZulu-Natal
ANC – 44 (-8)
IFP – 13 (+4)
DA – 11 (+1)
EFF – 8 (+6)
NFP – 1 (-5)
MF – 1 (-)
ATM – 1 (+1)
ACDP – 1 (+1)
Others – 0 (-)
So many dynamics at play in Pietermaritzburg, in the largest of the provincial legislatures. Willies Mchunu of the ANC will be pleased in spite of a big drop in support, since they had real trouble getting majorities here until 2009 and 2014, when their lead candidate nationally was of course a Zulu in the form of Jacob Zuma. This is the only region of the country that's a stronghold for another party with anti-apartheid credentials. The Inkatha Freedom Party won big here in 1994, remained the largest party in 1999 and still managed a strong second place with more than a million votes in 2004. Although they co-operated in coalition for a decade in order to appear statesmanlike, many in the ANC in reality see the IFP as a pesky thorn in its side. They must've thought they'd finally put them back in their box in 2014 as they fell to third place, but they're at least back up to official opposition status now. They won 7 municipalities in the centre and east; the ANC won the rest.
The DA actually improved its score to secure its best result yet in what is always going to be a difficult area for them (only 5.6% of the population is white or mixed, and just 13.2% have English as their first language). Half a million votes are not to be sniffed at here. One of the reasons the IFP's recovery was limited is that the EFF has broken out of its heartland and is appealing to the same pool of voters. They're up to a strong fourth place now. The main reason the IFP did so badly last time is that a breakaway called the National Freedom Party emerged. Most of their support fell away this time and they're down to a single seat, though they did almost top the poll in the northern Edumbe municipality.
The Durban-based Minority Front claims to represent the interests of South Africans of Indian origin. Their logo features a Bengal tiger, as if to hammer home the point. They suffered by far their worst result ever but still managed to hang onto their only seat. They have been struggling since their founder passed away in 2011 as their current leader has a much lower profile. New Christianist conservative party, the African Transformation Movement, pick up a seat at their first election. They have a charismatic leader and campaigned, among other things, on tougher education standards. They're fishing for the same kind of people as the more established ACDP, which improved by 411 votes (or 0.04%) from 5 years ago to record only its second worst result, and hold onto its sole seat.
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iain
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Post by iain on May 12, 2019 9:38:18 GMT
Given the large number of coloured voters, how come the DA do so poorly in Northern Cape?
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Post by rivers10 on May 12, 2019 10:09:31 GMT
I wasn't really expecting anything else but these results sadly tell me only one thing...if your South African, emigrate as soon as you can. The country is going backwards quickly.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 14, 2019 7:05:03 GMT
Given the large number of coloured voters, how come the DA do so poorly in Northern Cape? I don't have any on-the-ground knowledge of the province (my only contact in the country is in Western Cape and is a citizen of France), but I'd say there are 4 principal reasons, in no particular order: - According to the most recent census, an absolute majority of residents of Northern Cape self-identify as Black African. These overwhelmingly break for the ANC and are probably still very motivated to vote in what they see as their own interest, moreso than some other ethnic groups.
- Mixed voters cover a diverse bunch of tribal origins, which in any case have never voted en bloc for the DA or – historically – any other single party.
- This is the one province where white voters (who used to have different voting patterns largely depending on whether they were of Boer/Huguenot or British/Irish stock) don't back the DA en masse because the eastern edge contains a community that acts as if P.W. Botha were still in charge and Mandela remained in prison. This eats into the potential DA vote, and guarantees VF+ some representation on a bad day, and a decent level of it on a good day.
- As I mentioned, prominent members of one of the DA's predecessor parties defected to the ANC once it became clear the ancien régime was being negotiated away. The current Premier is "coloured" and was one of those who made the switch. Perhaps many voters of that ilk followed suit.
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Post by Andrew_S on May 14, 2019 16:15:19 GMT
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johng
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Post by johng on May 14, 2019 16:53:44 GMT
It's an interesting article, but there's nothing new in it. All these problems and more are very well known.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 16, 2023 21:55:18 GMT
The coming elections in South Africa could be very interesting - the Opposition have formed an Alliance called the Multi-Party Charter For South Africa, which commands 112 of the 400 seats in the present National Assembly, it is basically every opposition party barring the EEF. With ANC dropping below 50% of the vote in the 2021 Municipal elections , there is a strong chance that the ANC will be forced out of single-party power at the next General Elections.
Whilst it is likely that the Economic Freedom Party would go into coalition with the ANC, they have shown themselves willing to support non-ANC administrations in several cities.
To add to the mix, former ANC leader and President of South Africa, Jacob Zuma, has announced his support of a new party claiming the name of Umkhonto we Sizwe. He says the party under Ramaphosa is not the real ANC.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 16, 2023 23:39:06 GMT
The coming elections in South Africa could be very interesting - the Opposition have formed an Alliance called the Multi-Party Charter For South Africa, which commands 112 of the 400 seats in the present National Assembly, it is basically every opposition party barring the EEF. Maybe we've reached the Janata stage. |
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