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Post by carlton43 on Dec 19, 2022 13:27:47 GMT
Westminster voting intention: LAB: 49% (+1) CON: 23% (-6) LDEM: 13% (+6) GRN: 3% (-) via @ipsosuk, 07 - 13 Dec That seems very, very unlikely to me. Why now of a sudden and in such numbers? Why none to Reform or Labour? I am inclined to dismiss it as utter nonsense.
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Post by bigfatron on Dec 19, 2022 13:47:45 GMT
Clearly an outlier - I suspect we are still knocking around 9%, as we have been for a few weeks now.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 19, 2022 13:53:00 GMT
Obviously an outlier, but good that pollsters publish results even if they look ‘obviously’ wrong as occasionally they may actually be right!
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Post by batman on Dec 19, 2022 14:09:09 GMT
Westminster voting intention: LAB: 49% (+1) CON: 23% (-6) LDEM: 13% (+6) GRN: 3% (-) via @ipsosuk, 07 - 13 Dec That seems very, very unlikely to me. Why now of a sudden and in such numbers? Why none to Reform or Labour? I am inclined to dismiss it as utter nonsense. In terms of the changes from the previous poll, yes you are almost certainly right. However it's pretty similar to the gap shown in YouGov's poll which has come out today, and comparing it with the other polls which appear to have come to light today, if it's an outlier, it isn't by very much. The failure to give a figure for Reform however is clearly out of date as plenty of polls are now showing them with a pretty substantial share of the vote.
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 19, 2022 15:48:01 GMT
Ipsos-Mori are the dinosaurs of polling, going way back. I think they are still doing phone polling, whereas the myriad of new firms we have now all do on line polling. Although response rates are low they may well reach a section of the electorate that isn’t on line. I’m always interested what they come up with on thevrare occasions we get a poll from them.
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 19, 2022 16:12:29 GMT
Ipsos-Mori are the dinosaurs of polling, going way back. I think they are still doing phone polling, whereas the myriad of new firms we have now all do on line polling. Although response rates are low they may well reach a section of the electorate that isn’t on line. I’m always interested what they come up with on thevrare occasions we get a poll from them. The vast majority of my predominantly right of centre demographic peer group are never online for anything at all. That must be a distortion in those polls as they are missing a large number of the over-75s completely.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Dec 19, 2022 16:16:20 GMT
Ipsos-Mori are the dinosaurs of polling, going way back. I think they are still doing phone polling, whereas the myriad of new firms we have now all do on line polling. Although response rates are low they may well reach a section of the electorate that isn’t on line. I’m always interested what they come up with on thevrare occasions we get a poll from them. They certainly still use phone polling for their Scottish polls. As you say, they can potentially reach a demographic which internet polling wouldn't necessarily reach. Also internet panels tend to have a greater share of people who are politically engaged, compared to the general population. This was potentially shown in the 2014 independence referendum in Scotland, prior to the divergence towards the end, where internet polling was typically showing Yes around where the result ended up, while phone and face-to-face polling (and YouGov, largely due to their specific quota/weighting for SNP 2011-Labour 2010 voters) showed a much less narrow contest until the final few weeks of the campaign - the latter group probably being the more accurate of the two in hindsight (although that doesn't mean they're more accurate in general).
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Dec 19, 2022 16:17:59 GMT
Ipsos-Mori are the dinosaurs of polling, going way back. I think they are still doing phone polling, whereas the myriad of new firms we have now all do on line polling. Although response rates are low they may well reach a section of the electorate that isn’t on line. I’m always interested what they come up with on thevrare occasions we get a poll from them. The vast majority of my predominantly right of centre demographic peer group are never online for anything at all. That must be a distortion in those polls as they are missing a large number of the over-75s completely. I think that was a factor being the 2015 polling inaccuracy: having enough people in the over-65 category, but with that being heavily skewed to the younger people from that group (ie. they didn't have enough over-75s) - the older voters were significantly more likely to go Conservative than the younger members of the over-65 group.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Dec 19, 2022 16:26:27 GMT
The vast majority of my predominantly right of centre demographic peer group are never online for anything at all. That must be a distortion in those polls as they are missing a large number of the over-75s completely. I think that was a factor being the 2015 polling inaccuracy: having enough people in the over-65 category, but with that being heavily skewed to the younger people from that group (ie. they didn't have enough over-75s) - the older voters were significantly more likely to go Conservative than the younger members of the over-65 group. The ‘ cut off’ between those who are reasonably regularly on line and those who arent feels like about 75-80 year olds now. My mum, dad and mother in law are all between 74 and 77 and 2 out of 3 are online regularly and one isn’t. The point at which ‘ the internet ‘ became a thing in work places was about 20 years ago now, so the cut off between those who did and didn’t use it at work is probably 75-80 year olds.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Dec 19, 2022 16:51:45 GMT
I think that was a factor being the 2015 polling inaccuracy: having enough people in the over-65 category, but with that being heavily skewed to the younger people from that group (ie. they didn't have enough over-75s) - the older voters were significantly more likely to go Conservative than the younger members of the over-65 group. The ‘ cut off’ between those who are reasonably regularly on line and those who arent feels like about 75-80 year olds now. My mum, dad and mother in law are all between 74 and 77 and 2 out of 3 are online regularly and one isn’t. The point at which ‘ the internet ‘ became a thing in work places was about 20 years ago now, so the cut off between those who did and didn’t use it at work is probably 75-80 year olds. With each year going by that cut off grows older, however many may use the internet now due to smartphones/tablets but would never have used a PC/laptop (at least voluntarily). My Gran used to hate having a PC in the home, which my Grandpa used for work, going back to the 70s possibly (certainly by the early 80s) and refused to touch the thing; he worked for ICL for around 30 years, so he was a very early adopter. She ended up having to use a PC for work, but would basically only use the internet for emails. Pretty much any time I went over, there was something to fix with some technology she'd own. I've found the females in my family have been much less likely to use any sort of technology than the males, although that gap closes (or vanishes) with the younger generations.
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Post by bigfatron on Dec 19, 2022 16:58:03 GMT
The ‘ cut off’ between those who are reasonably regularly on line and those who arent feels like about 75-80 year olds now. My mum, dad and mother in law are all between 74 and 77 and 2 out of 3 are online regularly and one isn’t. The point at which ‘ the internet ‘ became a thing in work places was about 20 years ago now, so the cut off between those who did and didn’t use it at work is probably 75-80 year olds. With each year going by that cut off grows older, however many may use the internet now due to smartphones/tablets but would never have used a PC/laptop (at least voluntarily). My Gran used to hate having a PC in the home, which my Grandpa used for work, going back to the 70s possibly (certainly by the early 80s) and refused to touch the thing; he worked for ICL for around 30 years, so he was a very early adopter. She ended up having to use a PC for work, but would basically only use the internet for emails. Pretty much any time I went over, there was something to fix with some technology she'd own. I've found the females in my family have been much less likely to use any sort of technology than the males, although that gap closes (or vanishes) with the younger generations. My aunt appears to be surgically attached to her I-pad; she's 86!
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Post by batman on Dec 19, 2022 16:58:42 GMT
With Ipsos-MORI, I have noticed that, if there's a trend in progress, their polls appear to have a tendency to exaggerate it somewhat, going back a number of years. This poll is certainly no exception to that.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Dec 19, 2022 17:06:55 GMT
I think that was a factor being the 2015 polling inaccuracy: having enough people in the over-65 category, but with that being heavily skewed to the younger people from that group (ie. they didn't have enough over-75s) - the older voters were significantly more likely to go Conservative than the younger members of the over-65 group. The ‘ cut off’ between those who are reasonably regularly on line and those who arent feels like about 75-80 year olds now. My mum, dad and mother in law are all between 74 and 77 and 2 out of 3 are online regularly and one isn’t. The point at which ‘ the internet ‘ became a thing in work places was about 20 years ago now, so the cut off between those who did and didn’t use it at work is probably 75-80 year olds. A couple I am friends with (aged 77 and 82) have decided, since virtually everyone they know is on Facebook, to do away with Xmas cards this year and just wish everybody a Happy Christmas via a Facebook post.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 19, 2022 17:12:43 GMT
With each year going by that cut off grows older, however many may use the internet now due to smartphones/tablets but would never have used a PC/laptop (at least voluntarily). My Gran used to hate having a PC in the home, which my Grandpa used for work, going back to the 70s possibly (certainly by the early 80s) and refused to touch the thing; he worked for ICL for around 30 years, so he was a very early adopter. She ended up having to use a PC for work, but would basically only use the internet for emails. Pretty much any time I went over, there was something to fix with some technology she'd own. I've found the females in my family have been much less likely to use any sort of technology than the males, although that gap closes (or vanishes) with the younger generations. My aunt appears to be surgically attached to her I-pad; she's 86! My mum’s 90 and I’m sure I’m only allowed to live here as long as I do the weekly grocery shop online and turn the TV over for her to watch Strictly (she fell asleep and missed the announcement of the winner on Saturday 🙄) or somesuch. I have one Auntie who’s 96 and sends at least three emails a day to me, grown more frequent since she learnt to use Cortana which negates her near blindness, mum’s brother is 82 and can navigate his way around the internet (as a retired Professor perhaps not wholly unsurprising) and his wife who’s 75 is, for another fortnight, Lady Captain at Newcastle Golf Club and uses the computer to organise everything from tournaments to trophy presentations.
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jan 6, 2023 22:33:44 GMT
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 30, 2023 13:28:20 GMT
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Post by batman on Jan 30, 2023 17:02:35 GMT
Polls putting Labour at or over 50% are very common at the moment, this is at least the 4th this month
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Post by lackeroftalent on Jan 31, 2023 10:08:46 GMT
Rather surprised to see in the tables that four of the 1001 surveyed individuals indicated they would vote BNP and once weighted giving the BNP a 1% voting intention in this poll.
When was the last time they troubled the pollsters?
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 31, 2023 12:51:12 GMT
Rather surprised to see in the tables that four of the 1001 surveyed individuals indicated they would vote BNP and once weighted giving the BNP a 1% voting intention in this poll. When was the last time they troubled the pollsters? Sometime back when they actually existed?
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pl
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Post by pl on Jan 31, 2023 13:04:01 GMT
Rather surprised to see in the tables that four of the 1001 surveyed individuals indicated they would vote BNP and once weighted giving the BNP a 1% voting intention in this poll. When was the last time they troubled the pollsters? Didn't the BNP encourage its members to join polling panels to try and skew the results 10-15 years ago. I wonder if its some of those delightful people showing up in a sample.
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