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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 29, 2022 12:49:02 GMT
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carolus
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,879
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Post by carolus on May 19, 2022 11:40:37 GMT
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 866 
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Post by polupolu on May 19, 2022 12:15:24 GMT
Is there a breakdown for "others"? |
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carolus
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,879
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Post by carolus on May 19, 2022 13:45:48 GMT
Is there a breakdown for "others"? They've now put up the tables - seems to be SNP 6%, PC 1%, Reform UK 1%, UKIP 1%, Other 2% |
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 1, 2022 7:57:01 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 6,670
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Post by cogload on Jul 1, 2022 8:04:57 GMT
Almost the heady days of the last time we had some heady days...
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Post by batman on Jul 1, 2022 8:14:01 GMT
All the pollsters agree that Labour is ahead. Some have the lead higher than others (the latter led by Opinium & Kantar, and also including YouGov to some extent). Amongst those which do consistently show higher Labour leads, there is some statistical noise and the lead goes up & down for no obvious reason.
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Post by willpower3 on Jul 1, 2022 9:36:20 GMT
On those figures it would be 1997 for the Lib Dems and the Tories, but not necessarily for Labour.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 31,095
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 1, 2022 10:19:10 GMT
Almost the heady days of the last time we had some heady days... I know it seems longer, but it was all of three years ago. |
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msc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 736
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Post by msc on Jul 1, 2022 16:33:56 GMT
On those figures it would be 1997 for the Lib Dems and the Tories, but not necessarily for Labour. Well in 1997 they won about 145 seats, and if they were getting Beckley-Wakefield level swings at a general election, they'd be feasibly winning around 120 odd seats. It's not THAT far off, just starting from considerably further back. (That its even a possibility compared to a year ago is quite a turnaround too, tbh.) The biggest worry for the Tories is threefold - that this "anyone but the Tories" tactical voting doesn't appear to have dissipated yet, that the economic weather appears likely to get worse before the next election (October is already marked as worrisome, then there's Winter after that), and, well, Labour. It's quite clear that Labour are in a better position than even a year ago. They've put most of the Corbyn years behind them, they're picking up swing voters again, the polling and results are better, Starmer is improving at public speaking. They still have a long way to go (though I'd expect more actual policies around conference season), of course, but...if my opposition was widely seen as "slowly getting better but still needing to do lots to get back to their A or B game again" and I was still an average 10% swing behind them in recent elections, when they still have considerable room for improvement, I'd view that as a major fucking wake up call, myself. |
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,336
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Post by clyde1998 on Jul 1, 2022 20:34:27 GMT
On those figures it would be 1997 for the Lib Dems and the Tories, but not necessarily for Labour. Well in 1997 they won about 145 seats, and if they were getting Beckley-Wakefield level swings at a general election, they'd be feasibly winning around 120 odd seats. It's not THAT far off, just starting from considerably further back. (That its even a possibility compared to a year ago is quite a turnaround too, tbh.) The biggest worry for the Tories is threefold - that this "anyone but the Tories" tactical voting doesn't appear to have dissipated yet, that the economic weather appears likely to get worse before the next election (October is already marked as worrisome, then there's Winter after that), and, well, Labour. It's quite clear that Labour are in a better position than even a year ago. They've put most of the Corbyn years behind them, they're picking up swing voters again, the polling and results are better, Starmer is improving at public speaking. They still have a long way to go (though I'd expect more actual policies around conference season), of course, but... if my opposition was widely seen as "slowly getting better but still needing to do lots to get back to their A or B game again" and I was still an average 10% swing behind them in recent elections, when they still have considerable room for improvement, I'd view that as a major fucking wake up call, myself. This. The party perception figures [ link] aren't great for Labour, but they're still better than the Conservatives. If Labour were viewed as positively as they were in 1997, they'd probably be 30pp ahead at the moment. Labour's lead in the polls is more to do with the Conservatives being viewed negatively than it is with Labour being view positively. The 'fit to govern' score for Labour is in the same range as they were under Corbyn, but the divided, extreme and out of date figures are significantly more favourable. Compared to the final poll asking this question before the 2019 general election [ pre-election poll]:
| Con | +/- | Lab | +/- | | Keeps its promises | 12% | -23 | 23% | -3 | | Understands the problems facing Britain | 29% | -17 | 45% | -2 | | Has a good team of leaders | 16% | -21 | 26% | +4 | | Will promise anything to win votes | 70% | =0 | 51% | -17 | | Divided | 66% | +4 | 47% | -28 | | Extreme | 30% | -3 | 16% | -34 | | Looks after the interests of people like me | 20% | -16 | 35% | -4 | | Fit to govern | 21% | -25 | 33% | +4 | | Concerned about people in real need in Britain | 21% | -13 | 50% | -9 | | Different to other parties | 44% | -11 | 39% | -20 | | Out of date | 49% | +5 | 39% | -12 |
Taking the average of these (flipping the negatives to positives: 20% divided becomes a 80% not divided), you get Conservative 32% (-11), Labour 45% (+6). |
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 2, 2022 8:34:12 GMT
Con -11,lab +6 is really close to the national poll shift since 2019...
Maybe there is something in it? 🤔
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