Scotland votes Yes - 1979 referendum aftermath 'game'

[clyde1998]

Something a bit different; I'm interested in running an election 'game' where I give a hypothetical starting scenario (below) and people can vote in elections to affect the story going forward. I'm putting up this opening thread to see if there's enough interest to actually go through with this.

Introduction
Devolution has just been delivered to Scotland, following a successful referendum in March 1979. The referendum was closely run, with 52% of Scots backing an Assembly. The UK Government announced that despite there being the '40% rule' placed on the referendum, devolution should be delivered regardless.

Scotland will have control over most home affairs, such as health, education, social services and internal legal matters. Agriculture and fisheries will be divided between Scotland and the UK, with all other issues - notably taxation and oil reserves - being reserved to Westminster.

The Old Royal High School, in Edinburgh, will house the Scottish Assembly. The First Secretary, elected by Assembly Members (AMs) will be the head of the Scottish Executive. The AMs will be elected from each of Scotland's Westminster parliament seats, meaning a total of seventy-two AMs - and thirty-seven seats required for a majority.

Delays over the implementation of the Scotland Act pushed the first election back to September 1983. In that time, the Conservatives have taken control at Westminster and the SDP were formed from dissident Labour MPs, forming an alliance with the Liberals. It's unclear how effective the new Scottish Executive could be, especially if it's not led by the Conservatives.

The Parties & Leaders (September 1983)
Conservatives - George Younger MP
Labour - Bruce Millan MP
Liberals - Russell Johnston MP
SDP - Dickson Mabon
SNP - Gordon Wilson MP

Election Manifestos
September 1983

[carlton43]

Mar 27, 2019 5:13:00 GMT clyde1998 said:

Something a bit different; I'm interested in running an election 'game' where I give a hypothetical starting scenario (below) and people can vote in elections to affect the story going forward. I'm putting up this opening thread to see if there's enough interest to actually go through with this.

Introduction
Devolution has just been delivered to Scotland, following a successful referendum in March 1979. The referendum was closely run, with 52% of Scots backing an Assembly. The UK Government announced that despite there being the '40% rule' placed on the referendum, devolution should be delivered regardless.

Scotland will have control over most home affairs, such as health, education, social services and internal legal matters. Agriculture and fisheries will be divided between Scotland and the UK, with all other issues - notably taxation and oil reserves - being reserved to Westminster.

The Old Royal High School, in Edinburgh, will house the Scottish Assembly. The First Secretary, elected by Assembly Members (AMs) will be the head of the Scottish Executive. The AMs will be elected from each of Scotland's Westminster parliament seats, meaning a total of seventy-two AMs - and thirty-six seats required for a majority.

Delays over the implementation of the Scotland Act pushed the first election back to September 1983. In that time, the Conservatives have taken control at Westminster and the SDP were formed from dissident Labour MPs, forming an alliance with the Liberals. It's unclear how effective the new Scottish Executive could be, especially if it's not led by the Conservatives.

The Parties & Leaders (September 1983)
Conservatives - George Younger MP
Labour - Bruce Millan MP
Liberals - Russell Johnston MP
SDP - Dickson Mabon
SNP - Gordon Wilson MP

Wow!  What a difference in quality of those leaders over today.......And not just in Scottish terms but national terms.

[pragmaticidealist]

One dreads to imagine what the social media (had it been around in 1979) reaction would have been to the actual referendum result.

[The Bishop]

Or indeed to the SNP bringing the election about by supporting the Tories in the no confidence vote.

[Crimson King]

Have I misunderstood this? are you going to start a poll of some start for us to choose between a number of scenarios to move things on?

[Deleted]

Mar 27, 2019 5:13:00 GMT clyde1998 said:

Something a bit different; I'm interested in running an election 'game' where I give a hypothetical starting scenario (below) and people can vote in elections to affect the story going forward. I'm putting up this opening thread to see if there's enough interest to actually go through with this.

Introduction
Devolution has just been delivered to Scotland, following a successful referendum in March 1979. The referendum was closely run, with 52% of Scots backing an Assembly. The UK Government announced that despite there being the '40% rule' placed on the referendum, devolution should be delivered regardless.

Scotland will have control over most home affairs, such as health, education, social services and internal legal matters. Agriculture and fisheries will be divided between Scotland and the UK, with all other issues - notably taxation and oil reserves - being reserved to Westminster.

The Old Royal High School, in Edinburgh, will house the Scottish Assembly. The First Secretary, elected by Assembly Members (AMs) will be the head of the Scottish Executive. The AMs will be elected from each of Scotland's Westminster parliament seats, meaning a total of seventy-two AMs - and thirty-six seats required for a majority.

Delays over the implementation of the Scotland Act pushed the first election back to September 1983. In that time, the Conservatives have taken control at Westminster and the SDP were formed from dissident Labour MPs, forming an alliance with the Liberals. It's unclear how effective the new Scottish Executive could be, especially if it's not led by the Conservatives.

The Parties & Leaders (September 1983)
Conservatives - George Younger MP
Labour - Bruce Millan MP
Liberals - Russell Johnston MP
SDP - Dickson Mabon
SNP - Gordon Wilson MP

What is your justification behind your choices of party leaders?  (SNP being obvious having only Gordon Wilson and Donnie Stewart to pick from)

[afleitch]

Only one thing.

The Act gave 2 seats to each constituency (except the Islands). Some of the bigger seats would have got 3 seats. But with a theoretical delay to 1983, the existing (or in this delayed case 'new') seats would have been divided into two sets each

[clyde1998]

Mar 27, 2019 17:17:07 GMT Crimson King said:

Have I misunderstood this? are you going to start a poll of some start for us to choose between a number of scenarios to move things on?

Yeah. So the next thread I'll put up will contain a poll as to how you would vote in the first Scottish Assembly election, along with the primary policies of the party for that election. The result of which will determine the first executive, with their policies affecting what they do in power, the reaction from Westminster, etc. The poll following would either be the next election, a referendum, maybe a party leadership election or possibly deciding what action the government should take a major issue.

Mar 27, 2019 18:16:12 GMT Sandy said:

What is your justification behind your choices of party leaders?  (SNP being obvious having only Gordon Wilson and Donnie Stewart to pick from)

For the SNP, I chose Gordon Wilson as he was then current party leader; Russell Johnston was the then leader of the Scottish (wing of the) Liberal Party. So they were the default choices.

George Younger and Bruce Millan were the Scottish and Shadow Scottish Secretaries at the time. I decided on the 'Donald Dewar route' for them: they were the two people most responsible for the now devolved issues pre-Assembly, so they're best placed to leader their respective parties in the first election.

The only (relative) difficulty was the SDP. Out of all their Scottish-based MPs, it was really between Dickson Mabon and Bob Maclennan. Mabon was a former Minister of State for Scotland and was one of the favourites to be Labour's Shadow Secretary following the 1979 election, as well as the fact that Mabon was no longer an MP by September 1983. Of their other MPs, Charles Kennedy was a new MP and Roy Jenkins had just resigned as UK-wide SDP leader and wasn't an MP in Scotland for any specific reason other than a by-election opened up Hillhead.

Mar 27, 2019 19:27:56 GMT afleitch said:

Only one thing.

The Act gave 2 seats to each constituency (except the Islands). Some of the bigger seats would have got 3 seats. But with a theoretical delay to 1983, the existing (or in this delayed case 'new') seats would have been divided into two sets each

I wasn't aware of that. I mean, one of the amendments to the Act, which was part of the delay, was to make all constituencies single member and to follow the Westminster boundaries (inc. Orkney & Shetland). 

[Crimson King]

you canprobably add the poll(s’) to this thread rather than start a new one

[Foggy]

Mar 27, 2019 5:13:00 GMT clyde1998 said:

The AMs will be elected from each of Scotland's Westminster parliament seats, meaning a total of seventy-two AMs - and thirty-six seats required for a majority.

In a 72-seat Assembly, 37 seats would be required for an overall majority.

Mar 27, 2019 23:47:03 GMT clyde1998 said:

Mar 27, 2019 19:27:56 GMT afleitch said:

Only one thing.

The Act gave 2 seats to each constituency (except the Islands). Some of the bigger seats would have got 3 seats. But with a theoretical delay to 1983, the existing (or in this delayed case 'new') seats would have been divided into two sets each

I wasn't aware of that. 

I believe it's been discussed on these forums elsewhere before now, although I can't currently locate exactly where.

I also recall that the BBC replayed (online, at least) footage of news reports from 1979 in the run-up to the 2014 referendum which made it clear that the proposed Assembly would consist of 150 members – though they didn't go into any further detail about how that figure was arrived at.

[BossMan]

Mar 28, 2019 2:05:03 GMT Crimson King said:

you canprobably add the poll(s’) to this thread rather than start a new one

Yes, that is possible.

[clyde1998]

Mar 28, 2019 3:59:38 GMT Foggy said:

Mar 27, 2019 5:13:00 GMT clyde1998 said:

The AMs will be elected from each of Scotland's Westminster parliament seats, meaning a total of seventy-two AMs - and thirty-six seats required for a majority.

In a 72-seat Assembly, 37 seats would be required for an overall majority.

Mar 27, 2019 23:47:03 GMT clyde1998 said:

I wasn't aware of that. 

I believe it's been discussed on these forums elsewhere before now, although I can't currently locate exactly where.

I also recall that the BBC replayed (online, at least) footage of news reports from 1979 in the run-up to the 2014 referendum which made it clear that the proposed Assembly would consist of 150 members – though they didn't go into any further detail about how that figure was arrived at.

The legislation only states that all Westminster constituencies have two seats, Orkney and Shetland with one each, unless they're 125% of the average 'electoral quota' - if I'm reading the legislation correctly, is the total electorate divided by the number of Westminster constituencies - in which case there's three seats. After the 1983 boundary changes, this leads to 144 seats (no constituency exceeded said quota). It's entirely possible that 150 seats would've been achieved under the old boundaries. And you're right a majority would be thirty-seven seats.

[Deleted]

Mar 27, 2019 23:47:03 GMT clyde1998 said:

Mar 27, 2019 17:17:07 GMT Crimson King said:

Have I misunderstood this? are you going to start a poll of some start for us to choose between a number of scenarios to move things on?

Yeah. So the next thread I'll put up will contain a poll as to how you would vote in the first Scottish Assembly election, along with the primary policies of the party for that election. The result of which will determine the first executive, with their policies affecting what they do in power, the reaction from Westminster, etc. The poll following would either be the next election, a referendum, maybe a party leadership election or possibly deciding what action the government should take a major issue.

Mar 27, 2019 18:16:12 GMT Sandy said:

What is your justification behind your choices of party leaders?  (SNP being obvious having only Gordon Wilson and Donnie Stewart to pick from)

For the SNP, I chose Gordon Wilson as he was then current party leader; Russell Johnston was the then leader of the Scottish (wing of the) Liberal Party. So they were the default choices.

George Younger and Bruce Millan were the Scottish and Shadow Scottish Secretaries at the time. I decided on the 'Donald Dewar route' for them: they were the two people most responsible for the now devolved issues pre-Assembly, so they're best placed to leader their respective parties in the first election.

The only (relative) difficulty was the SDP. Out of all their Scottish-based MPs, it was really between Dickson Mabon and Bob Maclennan. Mabon was a former Minister of State for Scotland and was one of the favourites to be Labour's Shadow Secretary following the 1979 election, as well as the fact that Mabon was no longer an MP by September 1983. Of their other MPs, Charles Kennedy was a new MP and Roy Jenkins had just resigned as UK-wide SDP leader and wasn't an MP in Scotland for any specific reason other than a by-election opened up Hillhead.

Mar 27, 2019 19:27:56 GMT afleitch said:

Only one thing.

The Act gave 2 seats to each constituency (except the Islands). Some of the bigger seats would have got 3 seats. But with a theoretical delay to 1983, the existing (or in this delayed case 'new') seats would have been divided into two sets each

I wasn't aware of that. I mean, one of the amendments to the Act, which was part of the delay, was to make all constituencies single member and to follow the Westminster boundaries (inc. Orkney & Shetland). 

Didn’t know that about Russell Johnson. Personally I would’ve gone for Bob Maclennan for the SDP, but that might just be out of nostalgia because he was the first MP I ever had 🙂

[clyde1998]

September 1983 Election
The first Scottish Assembly election takes place under a backdrop of turbulence. Unemployment has crossed the 10% threshold, as de-industrialisation takes over Britain and as Margaret Thatcher aims to hold inflation down. Despite the highest levels of unemployment since the start of World War II, the Conservatives are leading the UK-wide polling comfortably: a recent Gallup poll gave them a 16.5% lead over the Alliance and 21% over Labour. While expected to the largest party in this election, Labour face a four-way challenge to form the first Scottish Executive.

The Conservatives, led by George Younger, are seeking to provide extra funding to assist with the transformation towards a service based economy. They're seeking to increase the number of children going to university after leaving school and reducing the number of pupils per teacher. The party would direct more higher education funds towards technology, engineering and the sciences. In health, they want to reduce non-care costs by putting cleaning and catering services out to 'competitive tender' in order to increase funding to improve care. Despite their opposition to the Assembly during the 1979 referendum, they're committed to making the legislature work and have no plans to abolish it, like they've pledged to do with metropolitan councils in England.

Bruce Millan's Labour are also committed to devolution and are positioning themselves as the protectors of Scotland against the Thatcher government in London. Labour wish to increase funding in education and health and to introduce a 'National Investment Bank' to provide extra funding for manufacturing and resource production industries. Labour would provide a huge funding increase for transport and housing. They’ll ensure that funds are available for local governments to improve poor public transport networks. Labour are proposing the removal of the two-tier local government structure in favour of unitary districts.

The Alliance are looking to cut unemployment by a third. They would create more jobs in the health service and education and would increase funding to assist agriculture and farming. They would seek to change the voting system for the Scottish Assembly and for local government to Single Transferable Vote, while proposing a single-tier of local government across Scotland. They would seek to reduce the inequality in the standard of health and education across different areas of Scotland.

The SNP are not using the first election to the Assembly to call for independence, rather a substantial increase in the powers – notably calling for tax powers, as well as full control over oil reserves, industry and welfare. The party support providing skills training to the unemployed to assist their search for jobs, while supporting increases in health, education, agriculture and fisheries funding. Gordon Wilson says that they will always stand up for the Scottish national interest and have no fear challenging Margaret Thatcher.

[peterl]

You mean it passed by only 52%. Surely there should be another referendum, just in case some people didn't read the ballot paper before voting or something?

[Deleted]

Suppose the SNP made a recovery and found themselves holding the balance of power, would they be more likely to support Labour or the Conservatives at the time?

[Izzyeviel]

Mar 28, 2019 11:57:10 GMT peterl said:

You mean it passed by only 52%. Surely there should be another referendum, just in case some people didn't read the ballot paper before voting or something?

It's only Scotland. Not like its for anything important.

[clyde1998]

Mar 28, 2019 12:13:07 GMT Sandy said:

Suppose the SNP made a recovery and found themselves holding the balance of power, would they be more likely to support Labour or the Conservatives at the time?

They would be more inclined to support Labour over the Tories, much less distrust would exist than in reality as Labour delivered on the Assembly promise. They would support the Conservatives, however, if they could promise to deliver extra powers or funding to the Assembly. If the Alliance were in the position of largest party, the SNP would be more inclined to support them over both Labour and the Conservatives.

[clyde1998]

Mar 28, 2019 11:57:10 GMT peterl said:

You mean it passed by only 52%. Surely there should be another referendum, just in case some people didn't read the ballot paper before voting or something?

What about that referendum Wales had in 1997 - 50.3% in favour of an Assembly? They should've made it best of three, just to make sure people weren't ill on the day and couldn't vote as a result.

[cibwr]

We had a second referendum on part 4 of the Government of Wales Act 2006 - which gave a near 2/3 vote in favour of full legislative powers under the 20 subject headings in the 2006 act. So you could say that the settled will is in favour of the National Assembly. I must complete the work on if Wales had voted in favour in the first referendum.... In many ways the proposed Scottish Assembly was closer to the National Assembly after the 2006 GoWales Act, in that it passed measures rather than acts and it needed approval by the Queen in Council.