clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765 
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Post by clyde1998 on Apr 5, 2019 0:31:15 GMT
Full Result
Lab - 9,308 - 39.58% (-12.73%)
Con - 7,357 - 31.29% (-8.00%)
UKIP - 2,023 - 8.60% (+6.07%)
Plaid - 1,185 - 5.04% (+2.56%)
Lib - 1,088 - 4.63% (+2.38%)
Renew - 879 - 3.74% (new)
AWA - 205 - 0.87% (new)
SDP - 202 - 0.86% (new)
D&V - 185 - 0.79% (new)
4Brit - 159 - 0.68% (new)
Grn - 924 - 3.93% (+2.79%)
Swing - 2.36% from Lab to Con; 9.40% from Lab to UKIP.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 5, 2019 0:31:48 GMT
Plaid save their deposit by 10 votes.
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edgbaston
Labour
Posts: 4,396
Member is Online
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Post by edgbaston on Apr 5, 2019 0:32:58 GMT
Crikey is it really UKIP + Con > Labour
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Post by johnloony on Apr 5, 2019 0:33:09 GMT
Honestly, if we can all stay up for it, surely a candidate can. It depends what the other commitment was. It might be something a long distance away. It might be a private reason which the interviewee was not willing to specify. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,142
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Post by cogload on Apr 5, 2019 0:33:16 GMT
.4% off saving our deposit? Almost a minor triumph...
Wait for the Brexit hot takes due to UKIP's rise..
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 5, 2019 0:33:27 GMT
This seat does seem to be trending Conservative over the long-term, although it could still be a long time before they actually manage to win it.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 5, 2019 0:34:12 GMT
A surprisingly decent showing from Renew.
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Post by jimboo2017 on Apr 5, 2019 0:35:58 GMT
9k. Labour should’ve done better than that Not so. Very low turnout and pishing rain, |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,038
Member is Online
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 5, 2019 0:38:12 GMT
Flynn was a popular incumbent; a general Labour candidate would have been sorely pushed in the 2010 and 2015 GEs. Not a lot to see here: poor results for the Big Two, no doubt, but nothing stands out from the rest of the field.
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Post by jimboo2017 on Apr 5, 2019 0:38:49 GMT
9.40% from Lab to UKIP.
Fuck Them, somewhere along the line they can be let go
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 5, 2019 0:39:33 GMT
9k. Labour should’ve done better than that Not so. Very low turnout and pishing rain, If Labour was on its way to government, and my god given the chaos why wouldn’t they, surely they'd do better than that? It’s not good for us, but it’s worse for Labour imo |
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Post by greenchristian on Apr 5, 2019 0:41:01 GMT
Not so. Very low turnout and pishing rain, If Labour was on its way to government, and my god given the chaos why wouldn’t they, surely they'd do better than that? It’s not good for us, but it’s worse for Labour imo Worth pointing out that by-elections rarely tell us anything useful about the national picture. |
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Post by johnloony on Apr 5, 2019 0:41:23 GMT
A net swing from Lab to Con! Yippee! Let's hope that our triumphantly brilliant leader Mrs May will use this spectacular triumph as a springboard and a bandwagon, and call a snap general election. We will crush Corbyn's chaotic communist clique and get a massive landslide for an immediate hard No-Deal Brexit!
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,038
Member is Online
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 5, 2019 0:41:32 GMT
See above. Please no spinning.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,787
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Post by J.G.Harston on Apr 5, 2019 0:42:18 GMT
My god, is nine thousand really a winning Parliamentary vote!? Remember Wales is overrepresented. Yes, I'm used to people "scraping in" with 15,000 or so. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 5, 2019 0:42:22 GMT
One of those useless facts for election nerds is that the Labour majority of 1,951 is exactly the same as the number of votes Arthur Scargill polled in Newport East in 1997 for the Socialist Labour Party. So, by extension, I think it's entirely fair, logical and rational to state that Arthur Scargill accurately predicted this result 22 years ago.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2019 0:43:13 GMT
I feel like the BBC are trying, an somehow failing, to make a mountain out of a molehill.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 5, 2019 0:44:26 GMT
Prima facie, this result could be taken as demonstrating the truth that the majority of Labour voters were strongly remain even in constituencies with a leave majority.
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 5, 2019 0:44:48 GMT
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Apr 5, 2019 0:45:28 GMT
The BBC analysis of this is completely missing the point. Yes, there's been a swing from Labour to Conservative, but both parties are down significantly making the swing between the 'big two' almost irrelevant. UKIP's (relatively) strong showing suggests that they're back in the picture nationally, while Plaid's best showing in Newport for a Westminster election implies that the recent Welsh polls have correctly been showing them making progress.
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