Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2019 12:02:16 GMT
Labour only lost this in 1983. A reduced majority after nine years in Opposition would be a bad result.
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 3, 2019 12:54:55 GMT
Labour only lost this in 1983. A reduced majority after nine years in Opposition would be a bad result. No. Only a markedly reduced percentage of the vote and majority would be a bad result. This might be a low poll. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 3, 2019 12:57:04 GMT
Labour only lost this in 1983. A reduced majority after nine years in Opposition would be a bad result. You mean a reduced numerical majority? |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 3, 2019 13:10:28 GMT
Labour only lost this in 1983. A reduced majority after nine years in Opposition would be a bad result. You mean a reduced numerical majority? He's already predicted a 6k majority with 51% of the vote. I'm not sure what thought process has gone into it mind you, but that's what he's predicting. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 3, 2019 13:24:10 GMT
You mean a reduced numerical majority? He's already predicted a 6k majority with 51% of the vote. I'm not sure what thought process has gone into it mind you, but that's what he's predicting. Which is similar to what they got in 2017, but presumably on a lower turnout, suggesting the Conservatives falling back substantially. Clearly it would be possible in this scenario for the percentage majority to increase but the numerical majority to fall somewhat. This would not be a bad result |
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markf
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Post by markf on Apr 3, 2019 13:45:13 GMT
Lab 35%
Con 19%
Ukip 14%
Brexit 12%
Plaid 10%
Libdem 5%
Green 3%
Rest 2%
Only a bit of fun
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Post by lackeroftalent on Apr 3, 2019 13:50:04 GMT
Lab 35% Con 19% Ukip 14% Brexit 12% Plaid 10% Libdem 5% Green 3% Rest 2% Only a bit of fun Honestly curious. How come people keep predicting a vote figure for The Brexit Party when it isn't standing? |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Apr 3, 2019 13:51:02 GMT
Lab 42%
Con 26%
PC 9%
Green 6.5%
LD 5%
UKIP 4%
Abolish 4%
Renew 2%
SDP 1%
D&V 0.3%
For Britain 0.2%
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markf
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Post by markf on Apr 3, 2019 13:53:44 GMT
oh I,m sorry I thought they were, I,ll revise my percentages
Lab37% Con 20% Ukip 15% Plaid 13% Libdem 5% Green 3% Others 7% |
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 3, 2019 14:19:56 GMT
I predict a shock PC win with Tories pushed into 4th place The by election prediction compliance unit would like a word....  |
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 3, 2019 15:54:06 GMT
Lab 35% Con 19% Ukip 14% Brexit 12% Plaid 10% Libdem 5% Green 3% Rest 2% Only a bit of fun Well it adds up to 100% and that about as good as it gets! |
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 3, 2019 16:09:51 GMT
Lab: 41.3%
Con: 36%
Plaid: 8.5%
UKIP: 5%
Lib: 3.7%
Green: 1.5%
ATWA: 1.4%
SDP: 0.7%
Renew: 0.6%
For Britain: 0.5%
Dems & Vets: 0.4%
Spoilt/invalid: 0.4%
Turnout: 48%
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2019 16:31:35 GMT
Surprised a majority of 56 hasn't been predicted yet.
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markf
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Post by markf on Apr 3, 2019 16:52:02 GMT
Lab 35% Con 19% Ukip 14% Brexit 12% Plaid 10% Libdem 5% Green 3% Rest 2% Only a bit of fun Well it adds up to 100% and that about as good as it gets! Carlton read above where ive done a correction |
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johnloony
Conservative
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Post by johnloony on Apr 3, 2019 20:32:42 GMT
I'm going to enter into the spirit of the thread by making a prediction:
Lab 21%
SNP 20%
SF 19%
Conservative 18%
Plaid Cymru 17%
TIG 16%
Brexit Party 15%
Mebyon Kernow 14%
Common Wealth Party 13%
Lib Dem 12%
Independent 11%
OMRLP 10%
Boaks (DMPSWR) 9%
Anscombe (DORFOR) 8%
Llais Gwynedd 7%
SDP 6%
Renew 5%
Change UK 4%
UKIP 3%
DVP 2%
Green 1%
Liberal 0%
Abolish TWA 0%
majority 8,000
turnout 15%
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 3, 2019 20:37:08 GMT
I'm going to enter into the spirit of the thread by making a prediction: Lab 21% SNP 20% SF 19% Conservative 18% Plaid Cymru 17% TIG 16% Brexit Party 15% Mebyon Kernow 14% Common Wealth Party 13% Lib Dem 12% Independent 11% OMRLP 10% Boaks (DMPSWR) 9% Anscombe (DORFOR) 8% Llais Gwynedd 7% SDP 6% Renew 5% Change UK 4% UKIP 3% DVP 2% Green 1% Liberal 0% Abolish TWA 0% majority 8,000 turnout 15% Liked for precision, but that's really not accurate. I predict every party with more than 10% of the vote will lose about half that, leading to an obvious Ein Gwlad supermajority. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 3, 2019 20:43:11 GMT
I'm going to enter into the spirit of the thread by making a prediction: Lab 21% SNP 20% SF 19% Conservative 18% Plaid Cymru 17% TIG 16% Brexit Party 15% Mebyon Kernow 14% Common Wealth Party 13% Lib Dem 12% Independent 11% OMRLP 10% Boaks (DMPSWR) 9% Anscombe (DORFOR) 8% Llais Gwynedd 7% SDP 6% Renew 5% Change UK 4% UKIP 3% DVP 2% Green 1% Liberal 0% Abolish TWA 0% majority 8,000 turnout 15% You forgot the Crofter's party |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2019 21:09:46 GMT
I'm going to enter into the spirit of the thread by making a prediction: Lab 21% SNP 20% SF 19% Conservative 18% Plaid Cymru 17% TIG 16% Brexit Party 15% Mebyon Kernow 14% Common Wealth Party 13% Lib Dem 12% Independent 11% OMRLP 10% Boaks (DMPSWR) 9% Anscombe (DORFOR) 8% Llais Gwynedd 7% SDP 6% Renew 5% Change UK 4% UKIP 3% DVP 2% Green 1% Liberal 0% Abolish TWA 0% majority 8,000 turnout 15% Can I have a puff of what you’re smoking? |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 3, 2019 22:15:22 GMT
I know we’ve all seen the results, but a useful graph nonetheless under 24hrs to go:
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 4, 2019 0:39:46 GMT
I predict a shock PC win with Tories pushed into 4th place The by election prediction compliance unit would like a word.... I predict that Plaid will do better than Forza Italia, SMER and Democrats & Veterans. |
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