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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 14, 2019 21:11:40 GMT
It should have happened. It was expected to happen. How does it happen?
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Feb 15, 2019 0:42:08 GMT
It should have happened. It was expected to happen. ...bar for the trouble Radical politics has often ended up having with security. As in letting de Gaulle back in or Charles Fox failing to educate the monarch. And in this case another variant of the failure to take care of military populism, losing their place a century or so in the process. If you ask me for analysis the first suspect would be a thing i have been dubbing the evening or feierabend syndrome of politics. Nowadays this would involve for instance rather taking the pension and/or the conference dosh when the going gets tough. While it does help with avoiding the hanging on beyond the use-by date, one side-effect is that the hard thinking triggered by that type of fear factor falls by the wayside, with polities with insufficient inbuilt redundancy having to pick up the pieces. In case anyone is still with me by now, my advocated remedial action ain't to scare the heck out of what is left of radicalism, but submitting it to the discipline of ecology and the principle of precaution. Modified from an unpublishable draft post i had made after some namings by the late @jamesdowden that did make me ponder why the Radical persuasion weren't gearing up for world domination... but here's a little teaser for the real fans: Radicalism at its core has a client/server model. Or to be precise, a server/client one. There's an issue with that similar than with the following take... some time ago i read a proposition from a chap in the ether that the main characteristic of conservatism were modularity. Both are a long way to Tipperary, err, wanted to write from being universally applicable. So there we have radical chap Fox 2.0 who serves the good deed and thinks he's done, except that his place really isn't. Which shall henceforth be dubbed the radical evening syndrome. Enter ecology and the principle of precaution... so, dear mates, if ya don't know how to tame the wyvern that hides in the bush, don't go there and leave that to the bottle-bearer.By divine intervention?  |
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Feb 16, 2019 22:27:11 GMT
A bump to find out if it is not a matter of interest, or if my previous post did inadvertently manage to sink the thread.
The last sentence of the previous post tried to suggest that there does not seem to be any realistically discernable geopolitical setting where Argentina could project military power globally in a way that China might. But within a wider interpretation where soft power is taken as the yardstick it would become a theoretical possiblity; even a country of six hundred thousand souls can get there under the right conditions.
Starting by a glance at the situation of the post-military regime economy, average GDP growth [1] between 1990 and 2018 is 2.9% versus 1.13% of yearly population growth with purchasing power being roughly half that of Spain at this stage. Which seems to place it loosely in middle income country trap territory. For comparison, the according numbers for Brazil are 2.2% vs. 1.28% and 2.11% vs. 0.6% for the Spanish economy.
One is struck by the large swings and the instability in their yearly GDP growth sequence, with an average 6% growth during the Menem and 8% during the Kirchner presidency alternating with slumps up to the grade of the Greek crisis that ended Menem's spell. [2] It did come out of that better than the Greeks with high subsequent GDP growth and losing about a quarter less of GDP, and interestingly with no demographic dent like Greece or the EE countries after the fall of the Berlin wall, which does hint at a peculiar underlying resilience that may well originate from a similar foundation than the feeling DW alludes to in the thread title.
Their electoral law since the junta times has been pretty much as i want to have it, [3] and political stability has been quite remarkable for that neck of the woods. Looking at the Arendt Lijphart criteria would make me desire a switch from a presidental regime towards a parliamentary one on top of that, as a means to achieve sufficient executive expertise redundancy to avoid the post Menem and Kirchner slumps.
It is trivial to conclude that the economy would catch up with Spain if it could maintain those 6 and 8% over two decades, and it does seem to be a matter of finding the appropriate economic policy and the political party ecosystem that can nurture that feat. Which gets me into such lofty domains as political ethics, spiritual repositories and supranational cooperation... the post is long enough as is.
[1] Caveats apply.
[2] That depression during the millennium turn actually turned out to be the closest comparator to the Greek situation that i could manage to find during a search.
[3] This one could tell where Venezuela was headed for when Chavez moved to first posts.
Edit: That'd have been Nestor Kirchner, the turn of his wife was less impressive.
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slon
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Post by slon on Feb 17, 2019 10:26:30 GMT
I don't understand why Argentina would be seen as a possible superpower.
To become a successful emerging superpower requires a dynamic growing economy ... the days of growth by military power and posture are long gone.
The potential is there for a high growth economy but of the requisites (technology, resources, capital, markets) it is difficult to see where Argentina stands out apart from resources.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 17, 2019 10:53:33 GMT
Nobody thinks they can be a superpower *now* - the question is if Argentina could have been if things had been different in their earlier history.
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Post by slon on Feb 17, 2019 10:57:45 GMT
Nobody thinks they could be a superpower *now* - the question is if Argentina could have been if things had been different in their earlier history. Did they have the necessary attributes at any time
remember - technology, resources, capital, markets.
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 17, 2019 10:58:58 GMT
I would certainly say resources yes, and aren't the other things created rather than innate?
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Post by slon on Feb 17, 2019 16:15:01 GMT
I would certainly say resources yes, and aren't the other things created rather than innate? Markets for the goods have to exist,
Capital is more something which can be created the danger being that the nation with the resources is exploited by incomers with capital rather than in control. Technology can be bought or evolved, but again it is best if it is homegrown.
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Feb 18, 2019 1:16:36 GMT
Referencing the previous posts by slon and The Bishop ... Events over the last twenty years have highlighted the role of capital in the fortune of that economy. From an exclusively monetarist perspective of capital it seems easy to conclude that both the scarcity and the handling of them monies have had disruptive effects. Similarities with the Italian economy do spring to mind there. But from a holistic notion of capital the correct answers are harder to come by to me. My indications suffer from a distant vantage point and would require further study.
Perhaps this points at one unlying issue beyond the ones i had mentioned above being both a lack of market structure and reliable market access. Also serious study needed there to sort it.
Otherwise i would tend to reply yes to the question
> Did they have the necessary attributes at any time
Illustrated for instance by the graph in: jorgeavilaopina.com/?p=61
They just couldn't keep it up like other places managed to.
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slon
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Post by slon on Feb 18, 2019 15:25:12 GMT
The Panama Canal had an effect.
Problem of a export based economy driven by foreign capital, what happens when the goods can be sourced elsewhere.
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Post by greenchristian on Feb 18, 2019 15:43:36 GMT
It should have happened. It was expected to happen. I've never heard either of these before. Who thought that it should/would happen? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 18, 2019 15:52:39 GMT
It should have happened. It was expected to happen. I've never heard either of these before. Who thought that it should/would happen? It was in the ten richest countries on earth by the First World War, and was considered a likely rival to the US to economically dominate the Americas. Numerous books were written about how Argentina was only just beginning to achieve its destiny as one of the major international players. Until 1962, it had a per capita GDP higher than Italy, Spain and Austria. Quite an interesting description here: www.ft.com/content/778193e4-44d8-11de-82d6-00144feabdc0 |
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Post by slon on Feb 19, 2019 19:05:17 GMT
I've never heard either of these before. Who thought that it should/would happen? It was in the ten richest countries on earth by the First World War, and was considered a likely rival to the US to economically dominate the Americas. Numerous books were written about how Argentina was only just beginning to achieve its destiny as one of the major international players. Until 1962, it had a per capita GDP higher than Italy, Spain and Austria. Quite an interesting description here: www.ft.com/content/778193e4-44d8-11de-82d6-00144feabdc0or google it
no very easy answers ... lots of blame heaped on political instability which is more likely a symptom than a cause.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 19, 2019 20:38:04 GMT
I recall someone (not a Welshman) some years ago, having toured the country, saying that if the country had embraced Welsh culture rather than Spanish culture ...
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 19, 2019 21:11:10 GMT
It's not the culture, it's the fact that they are all Italians.  |
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Post by mrpastelito on Feb 20, 2019 14:38:03 GMT
It's not the culture, it's the fact that they are all Italians. ... and not Savoyards?  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 16, 2021 8:01:13 GMT
I recall someone (not a Welshman) some years ago, having toured the country, saying that if the country had embraced Welsh culture rather than Spanish culture ... ...what ? |
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Post by John Chanin on Feb 16, 2021 8:23:53 GMT
I recall someone (not a Welshman) some years ago, having toured the country, saying that if the country had embraced Welsh culture rather than Spanish culture ... ...what ? There was substantial Welsh settlement in northern Patagonia, around the town of Trelew. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 16, 2021 8:39:27 GMT
There was substantial Welsh settlement in northern Patagonia, around the town of Trelew. I'm aware of that obviously but that hardly answers the question. gwynthegriff's friend was speculating about what Argentina would be like had that Welsh culture come to dominate rather than the Spanish but the sentence was incomplete. Are we supposed to guess what the answer would be? |
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Post by John Chanin on Feb 16, 2021 8:49:45 GMT
There was substantial Welsh settlement in northern Patagonia, around the town of Trelew. I'm aware of that obviously but that hardly answers the question. gwynthegriff 's friend was speculating about what Argentina would be like had that Welsh culture come to dominate rather than the Spanish but the sentence was incomplete. Are we supposed to guess what the answer would be? Conquering the world with Welsh voice choirs? |
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