Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2019 13:03:15 GMT
Chipping Barnet. Given the swings in Harrow West and Southgate, that one stands out. I think Harrow West had one of the largest pro-Labour swings in the country in 1997, Southgate likewise. So Labour 'underperformed' in most of the country if that is your benchmark. I'm pretty sure in fact that the swing in Chipping Barnet was also significantly higher than average that year, just not quite as high as in those seats London is different. Compared to most of its neighbours, Chipping Barnet had a noticeably lower swing against the Tories. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2019 13:06:46 GMT
Labour have certainly been Chipping away at Theresa Villiers' majority
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 23, 2019 13:48:18 GMT
I think Harrow West had one of the largest pro-Labour swings in the country in 1997, Southgate likewise. So Labour 'underperformed' in most of the country if that is your benchmark. I'm pretty sure in fact that the swing in Chipping Barnet was also significantly higher than average that year, just not quite as high as in those seats London is different. Compared to most of its neighbours, Chipping Barnet had a noticeably lower swing against the Tories. I'd need to check the figures against the notionals which I don't have to hand right now, but I'm not sure you are correct (I don't think the swing was higher in Finchley & GG for example, despite that seat being a Labour gain.) Certainly the swing was lower than in the Harrow seats but they were demographically very different (Chipping Barnet was still an overwhelmingly white seat in 1997 - the Harrow seats, Brent North etc decidedly were not) |
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
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Post by bsjmcr on Jan 23, 2019 15:06:46 GMT
I think Harrow West had one of the largest pro-Labour swings in the country in 1997, Southgate likewise. So Labour 'underperformed' in most of the country if that is your benchmark. I'm pretty sure in fact that the swing in Chipping Barnet was also significantly higher than average that year, just not quite as high as in those seats It was also reported that Chipping Barnet was almost totally neglected by Labour HQ even as resources started to be directed to neighbouring seats (including the supposedly "unwinnable" Enfield Southgate) and apparently our candidate there was a bit sore about this in retrospect. I guess that also includes FinchleyGG as it would make headlines as 'Thatcher's Old Seat', though at the same time I heard the winning candidate was totally unexpected and was expected to go back to work being a lecturer at the time? Still, 14000 majority to 1000 and with the same Tory candidate who happened not to be Portillo is probably quite reasonable but no doubt frustrating. |
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Post by andrewp on Jan 23, 2019 15:18:31 GMT
1997 swings in the area, based on notionals
Brent North 18.8%
Harrow East 18.1%
Harrow West 17.6%
Enfield Southgate 17.4%
Hendon 16.2%
Finchley and Golders Green 15.1%
Chipping Barnet 14.2%
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 23, 2019 21:47:03 GMT
A few others in nearby or similar seats
Enfield North 16.2%
Hertsmere 14.9%
Chingford & Woodford Green 13.8%
Ruislip Northwood 12.8%
Uxbridge 12.8%
The national swing of course was 10%
Sure a swing similar to that in Hendon could have made Chipping Barnet a Labour gain but that the swing wasn't that massive (in what is a very different area) is hardly an under-performance per se
The swing in Aldridge Brownhills was 7.8% and that in Bromsgrove was 7.0% btw
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Post by andrewp on Jan 23, 2019 21:53:16 GMT
A few others in nearby or similar seats Enfield North 16.2% Hertsmere 14.9% Chingford & Woodford Green 13.8% Ruislip Northwood 12.8% Uxbridge 12.8% The national swing of course was 10% Sure a swing similar to that in Hendon could have made Chipping Barnet a Labour gain but that the swing wasn't that massive (in what is a very different area) is hardly an under-performance per se The swing in Aldridge Brownhills was 7.8% and that in Bromsgrove was 7.0% btw Bronsgrove must have been one of the lowest swings ( the lowest?) in the country, aside from those aforementioned very safe Labour seats where there wasn’t much further swing possible. Helped by the replacement of an under scandal MP with a new candidate as I recall. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 23, 2019 22:25:42 GMT
It's usually best not to compare by-elections with general elections unless there's a good reason. I agree, but the B-E turnout was higher than the GE turnout of many, many seats which is why I was comparing. Perhaps need to see it from the point of view that oppositions often do very well in BE's which they did but going into the GE they were the incumbents? The Conservatives as challengers in the GE had time to manageto get a few more votes out? Interestingly looking up their candidate on both occasions Les Byrom's he comes up as a Labour councillor in Sefton. Swings and roundabouts... Yes - he is a Labour councillor in Crosby. Defected to Labour and then fought a LibDem seat for Labour, which he has held ever since. You really wouldn't realise he had ever been a Conservative. Nice guy. |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 23, 2019 22:26:08 GMT
A few others in nearby or similar seats Enfield North 16.2% Hertsmere 14.9% Chingford & Woodford Green 13.8% Ruislip Northwood 12.8% Uxbridge 12.8% The national swing of course was 10% Sure a swing similar to that in Hendon could have made Chipping Barnet a Labour gain but that the swing wasn't that massive (in what is a very different area) is hardly an under-performance per se The swing in Aldridge Brownhills was 7.8% and that in Bromsgrove was 7.0% btw Bronsgrove must have been one of the lowest swings ( the lowest?) in the country, aside from those aforementioned very safe Labour seats where there wasn’t much further swing possible. Helped by the replacement of an under scandal MP with a new candidate as I recall. The lowest in any Con-Lab contest where the Conservatives were defending the seat. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jan 24, 2019 7:13:28 GMT
1997 swings in the area, based on notionals Brent North 18.8% Harrow East 18.1% Harrow West 17.6% Enfield Southgate 17.4% Hendon 16.2% Finchley and Golders Green 15.1% Chipping Barnet 14.2% It’s interesting that Brent North and Harrow West (admittedly on different boundaries) are very safe Labour seats now and Southgate looks to be heading in that direction as well whereas the other four are still Conservative seats albeit highly marginal. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jan 24, 2019 7:16:16 GMT
A few others in nearby or similar seats Enfield North 16.2% Hertsmere 14.9% Chingford & Woodford Green 13.8% Ruislip Northwood 12.8% Uxbridge 12.8% The national swing of course was 10% Sure a swing similar to that in Hendon could have made Chipping Barnet a Labour gain but that the swing wasn't that massive (in what is a very different area) is hardly an under-performance per se The swing in Aldridge Brownhills was 7.8% and that in Bromsgrove was 7.0% btw Bronsgrove must have been one of the lowest swings ( the lowest?) in the country, aside from those aforementioned very safe Labour seats where there wasn’t much further swing possible. Helped by the replacement of an under scandal MP with a new candidate as I recall. Who ironically had to leave Parliament herself following a scandal. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jan 24, 2019 9:46:51 GMT
Bronsgrove must have been one of the lowest swings ( the lowest?) in the country, aside from those aforementioned very safe Labour seats where there wasn’t much further swing possible. Helped by the replacement of an under scandal MP with a new candidate as I recall. Who ironically had to leave Parliament herself following a scandal. If you're thinking of Jacqui Smith, she was MP for neighbouring Redditch. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 24, 2019 9:50:16 GMT
Who ironically had to leave Parliament herself following a scandal. If you're thinking of Jacqui Smith, she was MP for neighbouring Redditch. I think it may be a reference to Julie Kirkbride's decision to stand down in 2009, after she was revealed to have employed her sister as a constituency assistant when said sister lived 140 miles away from the constituency. Jacqui Smith did not stand down; she was defeated in 2010. The swing was slightly larger than it might have been, but it's doubtful she would have held the seat even if there had been no stories about her family. |
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timmullen1
Labour
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Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Jan 24, 2019 10:05:02 GMT
If you're thinking of Jacqui Smith, she was MP for neighbouring Redditch. I think it may be a reference to Julie Kirkbride's decision to stand down in 2009, after she was revealed to have employed her sister as a constituency assistant when said sister lived 140 miles away from the constituency. Jacqui Smith did not stand down; she was defeated in 2010. The swing was slightly larger than it might have been, but it's doubtful she would have held the seat even if there had been no stories about her family. Where there not other issues with Kirkbride’s expenses as her husband, Andrew Mackay, announced his retirement before he lost the Party endorsement in Bracknell as well? I seem to recall he’d tried to do a deal with Cameron that he would go if she was protected, but eventually there were so many allegations that that agreement fell apart. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 24, 2019 11:21:42 GMT
I think it may be a reference to Julie Kirkbride's decision to stand down in 2009, after she was revealed to have employed her sister as a constituency assistant when said sister lived 140 miles away from the constituency. Jacqui Smith did not stand down; she was defeated in 2010. The swing was slightly larger than it might have been, but it's doubtful she would have held the seat even if there had been no stories about her family. Where there not other issues with Kirkbride’s expenses as her husband, Andrew Mackay, announced his retirement before he lost the Party endorsement in Bracknell as well? I seem to recall he’d tried to do a deal with Cameron that he would go if she was protected, but eventually there were so many allegations that that agreement fell apart. Andrew MacKay was Cameron's senior adviser, and Julie Kirkbride was very prominent (although not in the Shadow Cabinet, she might well have got a senior government role had she survived). There was lots more that looked bad, including the fact that each claimed different houses as their 'second home', and they extended the mortgage to pay for an extension then charged the mortgage costs to expenses, etc. etc. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 24, 2019 11:33:40 GMT
I met MacKay once. Nice enough bloke but a bit odd.
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Post by heslingtonian on Jan 24, 2019 18:13:47 GMT
If you're thinking of Jacqui Smith, she was MP for neighbouring Redditch. I think it may be a reference to Julie Kirkbride's decision to stand down in 2009, after she was revealed to have employed her sister as a constituency assistant when said sister lived 140 miles away from the constituency. Jacqui Smith did not stand down; she was defeated in 2010. The swing was slightly larger than it might have been, but it's doubtful she would have held the seat even if there had been no stories about her family. David was correct in what I was referring to. |
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Dalek
Conservative
Aldershot and Glasgow Kelvingrove
Posts: 110
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Post by Dalek on Jan 25, 2019 23:41:29 GMT
Notable Labour underperformances were Bradford West and Bethnal Green & Bow which both had pro-Conservative swings.
There was a very low swing to Labour in Lichfield but this could have been the unwinding effect of the Mid Staffs by election as the Conservatives had a 14000 + majority in 1987 but only 6000 + in 1992.
Glasgow Govan also had a significant SNP surge where the SNP came closer despite boundary changes than in 1992 and you would have expected Jim Sillar's vote in 1992 to unwind as the Labour majority was 19509 in 1987 but just over 4000 in 1992.
Ayr was another low swing. Boundary changes transformed the 85 Conservative majority in 1992 into around 4000 for Labour but Labour only won by 6000.
I think I'm also correct that Brecon & Radnor could have been a Labour gain but Labour did not do what they did in Hastings or Inverness.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Jan 26, 2019 12:46:59 GMT
Glasgow Govan also had a significant SNP surge where the SNP came closer despite boundary changes than in 1992 and you would have expected Jim Sillar's vote in 1992 to unwind as the Labour majority was 19509 in 1987 but just over 4000 in 1992. The SNP candidate in 1997 went on to somewhat greater heights, of course. |
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Post by greenhert on Feb 17, 2019 16:56:47 GMT
Gravesham was another largely unnoticed Labour underperformance in 1997 even though they of course won the seat from the Conservatives that year. The swing from Conservative to Labour in 1997 was only 9.6%, well below the English average of 12%, despite most nearby and relatively similar Kentish constituencies having considerably above average swings to Labour e.g. Gillingham, gained on a 16% swing.
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