yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 776 
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Post by yorkshireluke on Jun 7, 2019 17:54:42 GMT
Weirdest thing about antisemitism to me is that I've never witnessed anything nor never thought of it as something that still happens until I heard about the AS issues in the Labour party a few years ago. I suppose that's what you'd expect growing up in a city with a 0.1% Jewish population. You do know York used to have a significant Jewish population don't you, and there's a reason why it doesn't now.. ? Yeah I'm aware of the massacre of 1190. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 7, 2019 18:06:03 GMT
Well clearly the electorate thought that the hysteria over liking a Facebook post was as ridiculous as I do. Really don't think their cause is being assisted - and we have another strongly pro-Palestine Labour MP (who is a Corbyn supporter - surprised the right didn't make more of that, but perhaps they have realised it doesn't work where the candidate is a well established local) Or a large portion of the electorate didn't notice. I think people who try and create a stink about something someone said or did online forget how little reach this stuff tends to have in localised contests, unless it is particularly severe. Sometimes the public are quite sensible. Some of them may even recall saying something stupid online themselves. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 7, 2019 18:19:02 GMT
As one would expect, plenty of different spins on this. There are nevertheless surely some basic facts: 1. The circumstances of the by-election were very unfavourable to Labour. The MP had been convicted of an offence which strongly suggested dishonesty. She had been subject to the first ever recall vote. She hadn't just given up. She persisted with, to most bizarre, justifications. 2. The area voted 61/39 Brexit in the referendum. Not overwhelming but a strong base for a Brexit-focused party. 3. The area is, at best, patchily organised by Labour. Even a passing glance at the local election history shows significant Labour weakness in areas which would normally be seen as targets. There's some sign of recent progress but the council has been Conservative majority or Conservative minority run throughout this century. I recognise that the parliamentary seat is not the same as the council area but broadly the same point applies to both. The party did have plenty of notice of the need to sharpen up for this contest. It looks as if they did, but the source of the main challenge would have been unknown until very recently. 4. It isn't a "no-hope" area for the Lib Dems. They have a decent local government base and have done for a while (albeit marred in its potential by a Liberal recusant force). 5. The Conservatives are well-organised, and not just in their obvious heartlands - they have been competitive in the parts of the city where well-chosen community candidates can do well. Depends what you mean by "no-hope". Getting the share we did supports your view, but to win a seat you got a couple of percent in as recently as three years ago would be considered beyond reasonable possibility for most parties. Doubly so for a party running on an anti-Brexit stance, given your Point 2. I think if this election was being run in a few weeks we'd have had a go at it on the back of the Euros, but it wasn't really feasible to prioritise it ahead of the locals and Euros. |
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Post by michael2019 on Jun 7, 2019 18:27:35 GMT
If you apply a UNS, I think that it implies a Westminster vote of:
Brex 28.9%, Lab 23.8%, Con 18%, LD 16.5%, Green 8.0%
Which actually rather spookily reflects the polls! With arguably Brex and Lab doing a bit better than they would in a General because it is a by-election, Con and LDs worse.
But how much politics has changed since the beginning of April is that this would have been seen as an absolutely terrible result for Con and Lab then. You’d have been expecting them to get getting over 45% each – not under 45% combined!
Going through the parties, my analysis FWIW:
Brexit:
Good: Absolutely stonking result – would have beyond their wildest dreams a month ago.
Bad: Spoilt by terrible expectation management.
What it says about their future with Brexit unresolved: They can be large party in terms of seats (100s) at Westminster if:
Challenges: To develop their grass roots structure and a policy platform other than Brexit.
Labour:
Good: They won – just!
Bad: They only just won!
What it says about their future with Brexit unresolved: They could scrape out winning more seats at a General than might be thought – by being the leading party (on 25%!)
Challenges: They might well continue to fudge the Brexit issue, arguing that they can win on other issues – a mistake in my opinion.
Lib Dem
Good: Well beyond their expectations a month ago let alone two months. In somewhat similar circumstances in Newport West they put on a mere 2%. Confirms their recent opinion poll strength for Westminster is not a mirage and not just for locals and Euros.
Bad: They didn’t get a Remainer bandwagon rolling for them – might have always been tough with them not clearly ahead of Labour (and indeed behind)
What it says about their future with Brexit unresolved: Good. It is likely they can now perform exceptionally strongly in local council elections which has always been important for them – especially in but not limited to Remain areas. But they still have a “coalition hangover”. Just think how they would be performing if political history was the same (which it wouldn’t have been!) if they hadn’t gone into coalition.
Challenges: Risk of not drawing a firm line under the coalition. If it was me I would come out strongly for free university tuition fees to do that. They may not be having as much success with one part of their “coalition” – young(er) voters concerned about the environment (Cobynista Labour – some now voting Green) as another – more middle-aged, wealthier voters who want Remain (Cameron Tories)
Conservatives
Good: They are not at the levels they polled in the Euros
Bad: They are probably fourth behind Brexit, Labour, Lib Dems.
What it says about their future with Brexit unresolved: Poor!
Challenges: Resolve Brexit – either way (actually longer term for Remain or at least a very soft “Norway” Brexit might be better)! While it is unresolved, look as if they are resolving it and take votes off Brexit – prob. easiest with Boris as leader (although this might not be their best longer term strategy) while not forgetting Cameron Tories.
Green:
Good: A solid (but not spectacular) vote.
Bad: Westminster elections (as supposed to Euros and locals) remain a tough challenge for them.
What it says about their future with Brexit unresolved: They have the potential to do well in some bigger towns and cities at a local level e.g. Brighton, Bristol, Norwich, Sheffield. Actually winning a second seat in Parliament looks a tough challenge with FPTP and they could get squeezed in a General.
Challenges: Avoiding a squeeze!
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Post by bjornhattan on Jun 7, 2019 19:16:31 GMT
Though if some Tory voters did switch to LibDem in say, Reading West or Wycombe, then the result will be Labour MPs Don't know anything about Wycombe but I am being told very loudly that in Reading West it could mean a Lib DemMP . I could see Reading West being won by a derisory vote share next time, since all the three traditional big parties could win a decent share. It could be even lower than Inverness was, especially if Brexit Party voters turn out in their good areas such as Whitley. |
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Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,489
Member is Online
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 7, 2019 19:36:33 GMT
Don't know anything about Wycombe but I am being told very loudly that in Reading West it could mean a Lib DemMP . I could see Reading West being won by a derisory vote share next time, since all the three traditional big parties could win a decent share. It could be even lower than Inverness was, especially if Brexit Party voters turn out in their good areas such as Whitley. Surely it depends where we are up to with regard to Brexit, and what has actually happened? And given that Whitley's voters voted 60% + for Labour in May on a 22.6% turnout.... |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 7, 2019 20:02:44 GMT
Are there really any words that can adequately describe the staggering incompetence of the Brexit Party in not winning this by election? They were universally recognised as the main challengers to Labour yet they couldn't even squeeze the Tory vote below 20%. Any Lib Dem campaign manager who failed so abysmally in such circumstances would probably have taken their own life to avoid having to live with the shame. Clearly the secret of the bar chart is still safe. Mwahhahhahahaha! |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 7, 2019 20:16:15 GMT
I didn't altogether expect to be saying this this morning but I agree with Carlton in his analysis of the Peterborough result, particularly the emboldened bits above.  I did say before that this had always been the Achilles heel of the Faragists, that somehow they did not seem to get their heads round how to win Westminster elections.My own feeling is that they just are incapable of putting in the work when it mattered, of turning themselves into a proper serious political party capable of meeting people's needs over a range of issues, and of organising a serious GOTV operation. I'm already hearing the excuses "we didn't have time... we've only been in being a few weeks" but it was just the same with the old UKIP. My own feeling (and this is where I don't necessarily expect the Carlton analysis and mine to stay so closely aligned)is that Farage and his closest henchmen are basically spivs who won't get their hands dirty with actual political work preferring a world of stunts and somewhat dodgy deals to the realities of work. I have to say as well (the Carlton/YP axis couldn't stay together long) that I find talk of a Conservative revival a bit steep, even if rumours of the death of the CP were just a bit exaggerated. It does indicate how far they have fallen if that result represents a recovery. Carlton it seems hoped to see "his"(?) party not just decimated but totally obliterated, but the traditional Tory party in a constituency they ran for so many years was not totally gone and was I guess probably saved a bit by postal votes and by the absolute core vote from the total collapse some had anticipated- I myself had thought it might have been driven down a bit further, but we are in the end only talking a couple of thousand votes or so. The Lib Dems were walking a bit of a tightrope. Nearly quadrupling their vote share was good, but a lot more than that might have risked splitting the Anti Brexit Party vote and letting the BP in. Of course the best result would have been a win for our excellent candidate, but I preferred a Lab win to a Brexit Party win and I make no apology for that. It was not going to put Jezza in Downing Street- indeed I have a feeling a Faragist win in Peterborough might have brought that closer at a General Election. I find all the the accusations of personal anti-Semitism on the part of the new Labour MP somewhat shrill and silly and almost certainly unfounded. She is however part of a Labour culture that is somewhat careless on this issue and may be guilty of somewhat fudging the issue because it may go down well with some parts of her core vote, which is why I would much prefer our candidate to have won. But a BP win in Peterborough would have in my view risked far more damage to the future of this nation. By now I suspect I may have moved quite a safe distance from Carlton. I have some knowledge of the various factions within UKIP, and although there certainly is an element of being the soundest person in the room and not doing the ground work, Farage has seen that as a weakness within the UKIP structure and mindset and many of his battles within the party were to change that. Perhaps Farage has changed his mind and will pay ground organisation no attention, but I don't think so. There seems to be some chatter about how Farage will model BxP on M5S. This doesn't sound like a traditional ground-battle approach. It seems to me that M5S is being revealed as a poor model - they are being cannibalised by a party with a more traditional approach. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 7, 2019 20:42:48 GMT
Don't know anything about Wycombe but I am being told very loudly that in Reading West it could mean a Lib DemMP . I could see Reading West being won by a derisory vote share next time, since all the three traditional big parties could win a decent share. It could be even lower than Inverness was, especially if Brexit Party voters turn out in their good areas such as Whitley. Yes like a lot of places could finish up with 4 or 5 parties each with about 20% of the vote, and very localised as to which areas vote which way, and with differential turnout being fundamental. That could be the story of the next GE almost everywhere. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,038
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 7, 2019 21:18:44 GMT
Are there really any words that can adequately describe the staggering incompetence of the Brexit Party in not winning this by election? They were universally recognised as the main challengers to Labour yet they couldn't even squeeze the Tory vote below 20%. Any Lib Dem campaign manager who failed so abysmally in such circumstances would probably have taken their own life to avoid having to live with the shame. In a decent sized constituency with a reasonable (if not huge) turnout for a by-election and in which there is at least a semi-serious campaign from another party, a Labour defence target would normally be around 12,000 votes. Get over that line and things are probably fine, fall beneath it: oh sh it. They were about 1,500 below at Peterborough. And yet... |
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Post by michael2019 on Jun 7, 2019 22:13:15 GMT
I have some knowledge of the various factions within UKIP, and although there certainly is an element of being the soundest person in the room and not doing the ground work, Farage has seen that as a weakness within the UKIP structure and mindset and many of his battles within the party were to change that. Perhaps Farage has changed his mind and will pay ground organisation no attention, but I don't think so. There seems to be some chatter about how Farage will model BxP on M5S. This doesn't sound like a traditional ground-battle approach. It seems to me that M5S is being revealed as a poor model - they are being cannibalised by a party with a more traditional approach. The model seems to be closer to Trump. But obviously all the political parties are doing what Farage is doing – social media, online donations and recruitment of members and supporters etc. Perhaps the one thing that Farage did do more off was rallies and their online streaming and availability on youtube etc. My politics are not those of the BP but one thing that has impressed me is their attention to detail. Good name, logo, colour etc. Good rallies – well videoed, with the audience well lit – nice “personal” speeches from lead candidates (the Scottish lead candidate – BAME and gay was impressive), Farage striding around the stage – not (noticeably) reading off an autocue behind a lectern. Good political election broadcasts. Nice shots of the candidates behind the scenes laughing etc. – with diversity of ethnicity and age. Coming across as ordinary people “like us” whereas with respect to Kippers their party politicals and vox pops always came across as a bit weird. Not rocket science but if you get the details right then you get an upward spiral of people attracted to you, higher calibre candidates, more donations, more support etc. The Conservatives left them an open goal for the Euros and you perhaps didn’t need to be Pele to put the goal in the back of the net. But Change shows what happens when you don’t get the details right and run a professional outfit – a downward spiral – and clearly they had a more difficult gig with a more crowded space of the Greens and Lib Dems but even so… On the ground game, I think it likely that Farage does know the value of it – especially if he has been studying Trump. Actually by using a strengthened RNC network of field offices, Trump ran a very strong ground operation in the US Presidential election. If we are still in the EU by next May (still the most likely outcome IMHO if may be not over 50%) then I predict the BP will run a very successful local election campaign. Massively overlooked by the media, especially in these types of times, though is the strength of Labour and the Tories – each raising 4,5,6+ times what Farage has raised - the money, human strength, networking of the Trade Unions or businesses. This does tend to particularly kick in, when the chips are down. The 80s for Labour or the 2000s for the Tories. And the Lib Dems have been called “cockroaches” by their opponents – able to withstand a nuclear winter when they have got in – and arguably they have had to in recent years! |
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Post by timrollpickering on Jun 7, 2019 22:52:17 GMT
Coming across as ordinary people “like us” whereas with respect to Kippers their party politicals... always came across as a bit weird. I can't imagine what you mean. |
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wallington
Green
The Pride of Croydon 2022 award winner
Posts: 1,322
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Post by wallington on Jun 7, 2019 23:07:02 GMT
I managed to win just under £100 off the final result, so on personal level I'm happy with the result.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 7, 2019 23:13:46 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2019 23:34:09 GMT
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Post by michael2019 on Jun 7, 2019 23:43:50 GMT
Coming across as ordinary people “like us” whereas with respect to Kippers their party politicals... always came across as a bit weird. I can't imagine what you mean.
LOL! Thanks for digging this out! I was thinking of this party political! In fact I think it was an effective one - as it is one of the few that I can remember. The EU monster taking over our institutions is a powerful image.
But it does rather make my point - they are not quite all white middle aged, ("golf club" type) men - but pretty much and that is the definitely what comes across and indeed that two token BAME women have been included just to prove that they are not all that - which of course rather proves the point that they are! And the UKIP logo - while making a good point and rather endearing - doesn't look professionally designed. As for the colour clashing purple and yellow... It does have to be said though that it is an improvement on Change's four black lines which must qualify as the worst ever political logo. (At least virtually all others whether well designed or not do make some point!)
My feeling is that if the BP were to make this party political - they would have the EU monster more in the style of a pastiche of a B-movie with some humour... Now I am sure all this was probably done on a shoestring budget. And you do have to give UKIP some good marks for making at least for part of it an effective party political that is memorable. It has to be said that "professional" parties with more money and that should have more sense have made some pretty excruciating ones! Who can remember the Lib Dem 2015 one (other than it seemed rather gloomy - probably about the Lib Dems' record in government!) let alone what point it was trying to make
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Jun 8, 2019 1:01:40 GMT
Probably all the Labour MPs who congratulated Lisa Forbes on her win, a move which will probably burn all her remaining bridges with the party for good. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,140
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Post by Foggy on Jun 8, 2019 2:09:51 GMT
Looking at the Euro results for Peterborough and adjusting them to just the area covering the constituency using Baxters ward splits I have the following raw vote changes; LAB +5737 CON +4744 LD +1039 BRX +990 OTH -666 GRN -1876Green: Good: A solid (but not spectacular) vote. Bad: Westminster elections (as supposed to Euros and locals) remain a tough challenge for them. What it says about their future with Brexit unresolved: They have the potential to do well in some bigger towns and cities at a local level e.g. Brighton, Bristol, Norwich, Sheffield. Actually winning a second seat in Parliament looks a tough challenge with FPTP and they could get squeezed in a General. Challenges: Avoiding a squeeze! I think one of the reasons Labour held on could well have been that some people who voted Green 2 and 5 weeks earlier were prepared to switch to the candidate most likely to prevent a Tory or BXP gain. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,143
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Post by cogload on Jun 8, 2019 5:52:57 GMT
Already calls to suspend the putative new MP for anti semitism. (The Times front page).
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,851
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Post by Crimson King on Jun 8, 2019 7:20:29 GMT
according to the beeb the charges are that she liked a facebook post of a video with accompanying antisemitic text (she claims she didnt read), and that she argued against the adoption of the full list of examples in the IHRC definintion of antisemetism. I do worry that even discussing how to define antisemetism is considered to be antisemitic. And am I now guilty as well?
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