cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,143
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Post by cogload on Jun 7, 2019 14:14:07 GMT
Whoever organised the Labour postal vote and knock up deserves a huge curry. With extra naan.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,815
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Post by right on Jun 7, 2019 14:26:32 GMT
The very fact that the central BP message was about two horse races shows the BP understood there was a strong Tory vote that needed more squeezing. Maybe the fact that the Conservative vote couldn't be squeezed anymore is because the a lot of the remaining core is in fact Remain voters who accept the vote and see Corbyn as a bigger danger than Brexit. I don't think the Peterborough vote was an irreduceable core. The Tory machine deserves some credit here - particularly when comparing the vote to the Euros. This was a machine election. (I know everyone is as dismissive on the Brexit Party now as they were fearful of them last week, but I think their machine was probably the best they've got out yet) |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,815
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Post by right on Jun 7, 2019 14:29:39 GMT
Whoever organised the Labour postal vote and knock up deserves a huge curry. With extra naan. Top dog whistling |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 7, 2019 14:30:44 GMT
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,060 
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Post by jamie on Jun 7, 2019 15:07:12 GMT
I’m feeling much more positive, narrowly losing your 201st target seat in a by-election is nothing to be ashamed of. Where does this figure come from? Is it based on Leave vote or seomrthing like that? |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 7, 2019 15:23:41 GMT
I've had this feeling for a while, and have been saying it to colleagues, but I really hope it continues to be unnoticed by the wider media. For all of the swings going on in the UK at the moment, there is one that is consistent and consistently large, and that's from Tory to Lib Dem in seats that are in any way more remain than the national average. If I'm a Tory, I would rightly be terrified of losing lots of seats. But not to the Brexit Party or Labour. If I'm a Tory MP in a remain inclined seat (basically the South East and London), I don't see how having a more right wing leader helps you keep your seat, which is what most of them seem to be thinking. Though if some Tory voters did switch to LibDem in say, Reading West or Wycombe, then the result will be Labour MPs Don't know anything about Wycombe but I am being told very loudly that in Reading West it could mean a Lib DemMP . |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,910
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 7, 2019 15:24:18 GMT
Crude electoral calculus changes CON 9 LAB 192 LIB 26 Brexit 345 Green 0 SNP 56 PlaidC 4 ChUK 0 UKIP 0 Minor 0 N.Ire 18 Based on what? |
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Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,489
Member is Online
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 7, 2019 15:29:22 GMT
Though if some Tory voters did switch to LibDem in say, Reading West or Wycombe, then the result will be Labour MPs Don't know anything about Wycombe but I am being told very loudly that in Reading West it could mean a Lib DemMP . Conservative Alok Sharma 25,311 48.9 +1.2 Labour Olivia Bailey 22,435 43.3 +9.4 Liberal Democrat Meri O’Connell 3,041 5.9 +1.0 Green Jamie Whitham 979 1.9 -1.0 Majority 2,876 5.6 -8.1 Turnout 51,913 69.67 +2.97 Would say that Labour are the obvious challengers here. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 7, 2019 15:29:39 GMT
Crude electoral calculus changes CON 9 LAB 192 LIB 26 Brexit 345 Green 0 SNP 56 PlaidC 4 ChUK 0 UKIP 0 Minor 0 N.Ire 18 Based on what? Finger stuck in the air. That's why it was crude. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Jun 7, 2019 15:29:55 GMT
(Apologies if this was answered upthread but...)
Why was Elmo stripping on stage?
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 7, 2019 15:31:39 GMT
Don't know anything about Wycombe but I am being told very loudly that in Reading West it could mean a Lib DemMP . Conservative Alok Sharma 25,311 48.9 +1.2 Labour Olivia Bailey 22,435 43.3 +9.4 Liberal Democrat Meri O’Connell 3,041 5.9 +1.0 Green Jamie Whitham 979 1.9 -1.0 Majority 2,876 5.6 -8.1 Turnout 51,913 69.67 +2.97 Would say that Labour are the obvious challengers here. Not what I am hearing on the ground- and not from LD members, of course. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,806
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Post by john07 on Jun 7, 2019 16:00:31 GMT
Labour candidate apologises for alleged anti-semitism:
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carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 51,000
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 7, 2019 16:18:28 GMT
And in saying that and in the manner of your saying it, you betray both the utter shallowness of your position and the sheer irrationality of having both the slogan 'Vote Conservative...Get Labour' and at the same time hoping for a Labour landslide to destroy us. You are as incohate as your rabble-rousing but incompetent leader. You yearn for power and have no idea at all what you want to do with it or why or how. You are a potentially very disruptive and damaging total irrelevance to everything. You are a vanity package and a visceral hate club.
My dear carlton, your party is in government, and hasn't managed to deliver any kind of Brexit in three years.
Your servant Sir! Ye. It is a most regrettable fact that my party is in office (if not actually in power) and has signally failed under a number of counts on various issues. Incompetence is too soft a term. Multiple change is required. But I ask you to consider if under this Speaker and the structure of this HOC if anything could have been passed through it. There seems to be an effective block on the May WA, on leaving with No Deal, on a Second Referendum and on Revocation of Article 50. Those are facts. And I further ask you to surmise the best possible outcome for your party at next GE 2019-2021 and tell me how many seats you think to get at best? To do it you have to shaft us. Ergo your intervention and we get a HOC that possibly revokes. Don't oppose us and we might just win. |
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Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,489
Member is Online
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 7, 2019 16:19:05 GMT
Conservative Alok Sharma 25,311 48.9 +1.2 Labour Olivia Bailey 22,435 43.3 +9.4 Liberal Democrat Meri O’Connell 3,041 5.9 +1.0 Green Jamie Whitham 979 1.9 -1.0 Majority 2,876 5.6 -8.1 Turnout 51,913 69.67 +2.97 Would say that Labour are the obvious challengers here. Not what I am hearing on the ground- and not from LD members, of course. Its a very divided seat - with a very strong Tory-LibDem area which is part of West Berkshire. Hardly any Labour votes. So if Tories from that part of the seat switch to LibDem, then it would give the seat to Labour, even if they lost some votes to the BP. |
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Post by afleitch on Jun 7, 2019 16:24:13 GMT
Looking at the Euro results for Peterborough and adjusting them to just the area covering the constituency using Baxters ward splits I have the following raw vote changes;
LAB +5737
CON +4744
LD +1039
BRX +990
OTH -666
GRN -1876
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 7, 2019 16:30:15 GMT
Crude electoral calculus changes CON 9 LAB 192 LIB 26 Brexit 345 Green 0 SNP 56 PlaidC 4 ChUK 0 UKIP 0 Minor 0 N.Ire 18 I make it something like this: Brexit 283 Labour 239 SNP 54 LD 50 PC 4 Grn 1 Ind 1 |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 7, 2019 16:55:19 GMT
The conservative party is about to be the most right wing on a national level since the late 80s and yet is set to lose a GE with the BXP in post. I can see your frustration. "The most right wing". Its just spent three years proping up Theresa May, a woman who constantly pushes socialist economic policy, politically correct grievance politics etc. A woman to the left of Tony Blair, a woman who doesn't have a conservative bone in her body
Its about to elect Boris Johnson and I'd like to know what you think is particularly "right wing" about him. I think you may be confusing being crass and obnoxious with being "right wing"
Yes, the old statisitical conundrum. Just because there is a strong correlation you cannot assume causation |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 7, 2019 17:02:20 GMT
Local organisation usually comes with local councillors, which means (at the very least) the party will have a much wider membership than BxP allows now. Is Farage willing to take that risk? There's no law to say you have to be a member of the party you represent. There are quite strict internal party rules. It is also arguable whether having councillors helped UKIP. (cough, Thanet) |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 7, 2019 17:50:39 GMT
Not what I am hearing on the ground- and not from LD members, of course. Its a very divided seat - with a very strong Tory-LibDem area which is part of West Berkshire. Hardly any Labour votes. So if Tories from that part of the seat switch to LibDem, then it would give the seat to Labour, even if they lost some votes to the BP. The area I know well is within Reading borough, not in the West Berkshire bit. |
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 776
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Post by yorkshireluke on Jun 7, 2019 17:50:56 GMT
Weirdest thing about antisemitism to me is that I've never witnessed anything nor never thought of it as something that still happens until I heard about the AS issues in the Labour party a few years ago. I suppose that's what you'd expect growing up in a city with a 0.1% Jewish population. The population is relatively small, so you won't hear of many cases (though I know a few) where there is abuse on a personal level, but I'd be surprised if you hadn't encountered some of it in political social media. It's not so bad on Twitter, but Youtube is chock-full of it, to say nothing of the reddit communities, 4channers, dodgy Facebook groups, etc. When the uninitiated interact with this stuff, they tend not to recognise it for what it is, in my experience, and as a result often parrot some very nasty rhetoric without realising the weight of its implications. The general rise of the far right plays a part in this too, in terms of real-life persecution. Oh I'm well aware of it now, though I've still only witnessed it on Twitter/Facebook, where people have their monitors to hide behind. |
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