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Opinium
May 30, 2020 20:59:46 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2020 20:59:46 GMT
3.9% is hung parliament if that's correct. Give Labour 44 gains including Truro & Falmouth
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Post by manchesterman on May 30, 2020 21:15:23 GMT
Might not be enough to cheer manchesterman up. But encouraging for Labour in a national crisis I am voluntary self-isolating from the polls threads for 14 days
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 31, 2020 10:37:14 GMT
They didn't manage it in the last two elections, despite being optimistic about their chances.
Of course (as currently being discussed elsewhere) boundary changes might have a say here.
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Post by andrewp on Jun 13, 2020 19:14:09 GMT
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Post by tonygreaves on Jun 15, 2020 11:10:18 GMT
I am just amazed by this spate of polling by pretty well everyone. It's true that we are in a period of intense political scrutiny but it seem that the fewer elections we can have the more polling takes place.
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Post by justin124 on Jun 15, 2020 17:06:27 GMT
I am just amazed by this spate of polling by pretty well everyone. It's true that we are in a period of intense political scrutiny but it seem that the fewer elections we can have the more polling takes place. Well - we are now beyond the 10% point of this Parliament. Indeed if Polling Day occurs on May 2nd 2024 as currently required by the FTPA , we are already as close to the next election as to the end of July 2016 - ie 5 weeks beyond the EU Referendum and more than 2 weeks after Theresa May became PM! To me, that still feels quite recent.
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Jack
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Opinium
Jun 20, 2020 20:56:37 GMT
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Post by Jack on Jun 20, 2020 20:56:37 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 20, 2020 21:13:06 GMT
Changes since the general election: Con -1% Lab +7% LD -7% Grn nc
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2020 21:24:38 GMT
Slack water
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Opinium
Jun 20, 2020 21:27:37 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2020 21:27:37 GMT
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 21, 2020 0:07:42 GMT
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Jun 28, 2020 8:17:30 GMT
We have a possible polling first. The LOTO is ahead of the PM as preferred PM while the LOTO's party remains behind in voting intentions.
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Post by archaeologist on Jun 28, 2020 8:30:28 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 28, 2020 9:46:27 GMT
We have a possible polling first. The LOTO is ahead of the PM as preferred PM while the LOTO's party remains behind in voting intentions. Its happened before fairly often with the PM leading on that index whilst their party trails, but the other way round is rare indeed. Any previous examples? But maybe it illustrates my warning yesterday, that Starmer needs to get all these people praising him to actually vote Labour.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 28, 2020 14:30:17 GMT
We have a possible polling first. The LOTO is ahead of the PM as preferred PM while the LOTO's party remains behind in voting intentions. Its happened before fairly often with the PM leading on that index whilst their party trails, but the other way round is rare indeed. Any previous examples? But maybe it illustrates my warning yesterday, that Starmer needs to get all these people praising him to actually vote Labour. Dare I say it, he looks and sounds the part, and that matters to a lot of people put off by Corbyn and friends. But I would also be interested to know the regional breakdowns.
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 28, 2020 20:58:40 GMT
Starmer outperforming his party ratings Corbyn underperformed his party ratings.
Nuff said
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Post by curiousliberal on Jun 28, 2020 23:28:26 GMT
Starmer outperforming his party ratings Corbyn underperformed his party ratings. Nuff said By election day, Corbyn underperformed his party's ratings. Starmer strikes me as (electorally) a better leader, but when a competitive general election campaign kicks off, you will see his ratings tank and I don't think they're comparable until we've seen the gutter press begin the mudslinging (I'd guess there is plenty of mud from the snippets I'm aware of). The usual suspects will put him through the ringer because (with Labour) it's almost always easier to go after the leader rather than the rank-and-file or the principles or what have you.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 29, 2020 9:33:49 GMT
Starmer outperforming his party ratings Corbyn underperformed his party ratings. Nuff said By election day, Corbyn underperformed his party's ratings. Starmer strikes me as (electorally) a better leader, but when a competitive general election campaign kicks off, you will see his ratings tank and I don't think they're comparable until we've seen the gutter press begin the mudslinging (I'd guess there is plenty of mud from the snippets I'm aware of). The usual suspects will put him through the ringer because (with Labour) it's almost always easier to go after the leader rather than the rank-and-file or the principles or what have you. Of course this is possible, but I don't see how it is inevitable.
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Post by matureleft on Jun 29, 2020 9:44:24 GMT
By election day, Corbyn underperformed his party's ratings. Starmer strikes me as (electorally) a better leader, but when a competitive general election campaign kicks off, you will see his ratings tank and I don't think they're comparable until we've seen the gutter press begin the mudslinging (I'd guess there is plenty of mud from the snippets I'm aware of). The usual suspects will put him through the ringer because (with Labour) it's almost always easier to go after the leader rather than the rank-and-file or the principles or what have you. Of course this is possible, but I don't see how it is inevitable. The part that is inevitable is the attack by the Tory press. The only leader who (briefly - for 1997 and a lttle beyond) avoided most of that was Blair. Then his wife was sometimes used as a convenient proxy and normality resumed in the 2001 parliament. Starmer's DPP time will provide plenty of attack material (fair or not matters little).
However the impact that these attacks make is declining. Fewer people buy papers (or even look regularly at their websites) than in the 1990s. Their remaining readerships is even more tribally defined than they were so they speak to believers anyway. Instead of doing the Blair, rather creepy, circuit of proprietors it would be better to invest now in a quality social media team.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 29, 2020 9:48:00 GMT
But I'm sure the right wing media won't wait until the next GE campaign actually kicks off before slagging off Starmer.
(indeed, some of their "outliers" have already been trying out the "he let Savile go free/grooming gangs run rampant" lines so popular on the alt-right fringe)
You touch on one interesting point though - Blair's really good relations with the press weren't until *after* he won in 1997. He was actually attacked quite a lot as opposition leader, even though people have forgotten that because the Sun backed him in the actual election campaign.
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