The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on May 25, 2020 9:16:35 GMT
He was actually more popular than May *during* the campaign, as opposed to immediately after it?
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 25, 2020 9:47:34 GMT
The next poll should be very interesting!! Getting more so every day.
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Post by Merseymike on May 25, 2020 14:14:26 GMT
That's pretty unlikely though of course it's not impossible. You have to go back to 1979 to find an election where the more popular leader of one of the 2 main parties lost. Corbyn was the more popular of the two leaders in 2017. Though we're in a particular situation that even Blair's popularity numbers wouldn't transfer into enough votes to win a majority Labour's real problem is vote distribution. This may not be permanent - it was the Tories problem in 2005, when their tendency to pile up votes in the safe shire seats saw Labour take many marginals However, right now, Labour has two main challenges 1. Scotland. Say no more 2. The former Leave seats. We can see they are vulnerable to a populist message they support and that the traditional tribal links which held some of those seats to Labour despite their politics having diverged from those of Labour finally snapped, at least in enough cases to send the seats Tory. To look at a map of the West Midlands and to see just about every seat surrounding Birmingham as blue is remarkable. Whether they can win those back will depend on circumstance at the time of the next election. Then they do have to win another clutch of seats from the Tories to get a majority. Some of them are showing a slow shift towards Labour (Chingford & Woodford Green, Wycombe) but there's not all that many of them.
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Deleted
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Opinium
May 25, 2020 20:39:02 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2020 20:39:02 GMT
Corbyn was the more popular of the two leaders in 2017. Though we're in a particular situation that even Blair's popularity numbers wouldn't transfer into enough votes to win a majority Labour's real problem is vote distribution. This may not be permanent - it was the Tories problem in 2005, when their tendency to pile up votes in the safe shire seats saw Labour take many marginals However, right now, Labour has two main challenges 1. Scotland. Say no more 2. The former Leave seats. We can see they are vulnerable to a populist message they support and that the traditional tribal links which held some of those seats to Labour despite their politics having diverged from those of Labour finally snapped, at least in enough cases to send the seats Tory. To look at a map of the West Midlands and to see just about every seat surrounding Birmingham as blue is remarkable. Whether they can win those back will depend on circumstance at the time of the next election. Then they do have to win another clutch of seats from the Tories to get a majority. Some of them are showing a slow shift towards Labour (Chingford & Woodford Green, Wycombe) but there's not all that many of them. That's 100% true. I read that 2017 was Labour's biggest disparity in vote distribution. Labour's biggest problem is they do well in safe seats. Their massive majorities in cities and a decent showings in Tory seats which aren't good enough to actually win. But traditional marginals are out of reach
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Post by Merseymike on May 25, 2020 20:54:53 GMT
Labour's real problem is vote distribution. This may not be permanent - it was the Tories problem in 2005, when their tendency to pile up votes in the safe shire seats saw Labour take many marginals However, right now, Labour has two main challenges 1. Scotland. Say no more 2. The former Leave seats. We can see they are vulnerable to a populist message they support and that the traditional tribal links which held some of those seats to Labour despite their politics having diverged from those of Labour finally snapped, at least in enough cases to send the seats Tory. To look at a map of the West Midlands and to see just about every seat surrounding Birmingham as blue is remarkable. Whether they can win those back will depend on circumstance at the time of the next election. Then they do have to win another clutch of seats from the Tories to get a majority. Some of them are showing a slow shift towards Labour (Chingford & Woodford Green, Wycombe) but there's not all that many of them. That's 100% true. I read that 2017 was Labour's biggest disparity in vote distribution. Labour's biggest problem is they do well in safe seats. Their massive majorities in cities and a decent showings in Tory seats which aren't good enough to actually win. But traditional marginals are out of reach Well, look at your home county - respectable second places in Stevenage and Welwyn-Hatfield but not marginal any more. Way back in Hemel, third in St Albans.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2020 15:14:51 GMT
Think this suggests a UKIP and SDP resurgence.
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Post by manchesterman on May 30, 2020 15:39:09 GMT
Nah it'll be the LDs polling double figures!
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Post by manchesterman on May 30, 2020 15:39:46 GMT
Anyway I promise not to get too over-excited whatever the poll says. Scout's honour!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2020 15:49:06 GMT
someone reckons they're Roger Scully.
What do we reckon? Labour lead?
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Deleted
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Opinium
May 30, 2020 17:10:42 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2020 17:10:42 GMT
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Deleted
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Opinium
May 30, 2020 17:16:03 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2020 17:16:03 GMT
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Deleted
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Opinium
May 30, 2020 17:16:54 GMT
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dizz likes this
Post by Deleted on May 30, 2020 17:16:54 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 30, 2020 18:47:40 GMT
This is based on someone's pure guess and not the actual poll, which gets revealed at 8 PM.
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Post by justin124 on May 30, 2020 19:01:55 GMT
The poll is - Con 43% Lab 39% LD 6%
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Jack
Reform Party
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Post by Jack on May 30, 2020 19:03:05 GMT
Not that exciting, really.
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Deleted
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Opinium
May 30, 2020 19:13:49 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2020 19:13:49 GMT
Gap now 3
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 30, 2020 19:21:15 GMT
Not THAT exciting but still a 1% swing since last weekend. And must be close to hung parliament territory Electoral calculus gives a Conservative majority of 2 on those numbers
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Post by justin124 on May 30, 2020 19:22:45 GMT
Not THAT exciting but still a 1% swing since last weekend. And must be close to hung parliament territory A 4% swing!
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Post by justin124 on May 30, 2020 19:26:16 GMT
Not THAT exciting but still a 1% swing since last weekend. And must be close to hung parliament territory Electoral calculus gives a Conservative majority of 2 on those numbers On UNS it might just be into Hung Parliament territory , depending on what happens to LDs and SNP. If Labour managed 39% across GB , I would expect the party to be in the 25% to 30% range in Scotland too.
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Post by justin124 on May 30, 2020 20:01:21 GMT
if the swing were exactly 4%, it would be a hung parliament. AS IT HAPPENS the Tories hold a number of seats with majorities of 7.6 or 7.7%, and I make the swing to Labour 3.75%. There are several seats where the majority is indeed 7.5% too. 2 Tory seats in Scotland are vulnerable to very small swings to the SNP but if this poll is accurate the Tories gain Westmorland & Lonsdale from Tim Farron. This of course is purely on non-existent UNS It is a 4% swing from a week ago - 3.9% from the December GE on the basis of a Tory GB lead of 11.8%.
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