|
Post by π΄ββ οΈ Neath West π΄ββ οΈ on Apr 12, 2020 12:55:18 GMT
These numbers actually are slightly above what the latest excessively ramped Welsh poll had β not only Alyn and Deeside, Cardiff North, both Newports, Torfaen, Islwyn, Pontypridd, Neath, Gower, Llanelli, and Carmarthen East, but Caerphilly as well.
And I suspect that Sir Keir's numbers are only so high because of the number of people whose response is "Who is he?" β once the don't knows see that one North London Labour MP who at least appealed to muddy people in a field in Somerset has been replaced with an even more archetypically North London Labour MP, the only way is down. (And it has crossed my mind that he could take advantage of his current low profile to broaden his appeal, at least a little way the other side of the Thames: he could start going by his middle name β you guessed it β Rodney.)
|
|
mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 22,338
|
Opinium
Apr 12, 2020 16:56:59 GMT
via mobile
Post by mboy on Apr 12, 2020 16:56:59 GMT
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Apr 12, 2020 18:09:31 GMT
Worth noting that the median prediction expects lockdown to be over around early to mid June and social distancing to be over at the start of July. On both counts Conservative voters and Brexit supporters are more optimistic (late May and late June being their median predictions). Edit: I've been mulling it over, and I think the former prediction is too late (I would expect formal lockdown to end earlier than many think, though informally it will still be encouraged), but the latter prediction is much too early. I can see some social distancing measures still being in force until a vaccine or effective treatment is found and tested, which probably won't be until late this year or in 2021.
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 39,119
Member is Online
|
Opinium
Apr 12, 2020 18:19:04 GMT
via mobile
Post by Merseymike on Apr 12, 2020 18:19:04 GMT
Worth noting that the median prediction expects lockdown to be over around early to mid June and social distancing to be over at the start of July. On both counts Conservative voters and Brexit supporters are more optimistic (late May and late June being their median predictions). Edit: I've been mulling it over, and I think the former prediction is too late (I would expect formal lockdown to end earlier than many think, though informally it will still be encouraged), but the latter prediction is much too early. I can see some social distancing measures still being in force until a vaccine or effective treatment is found and tested, which probably won't be until late this year or in 2021. Can't see that being kept up. And what's this "until"? The assumption that this vaccine will appear seems to be at the heart of the unquestioning compliance
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Apr 12, 2020 18:31:18 GMT
Worth noting that the median prediction expects lockdown to be over around early to mid June and social distancing to be over at the start of July. On both counts Conservative voters and Brexit supporters are more optimistic (late May and late June being their median predictions). Edit: I've been mulling it over, and I think the former prediction is too late (I would expect formal lockdown to end earlier than many think, though informally it will still be encouraged), but the latter prediction is much too early. I can see some social distancing measures still being in force until a vaccine or effective treatment is found and tested, which probably won't be until late this year or in 2021. Can't see that being kept up. And what's this "until"? The assumption that this vaccine will appear seems to be at the heart of the unquestioning compliance I don't necessarily know that it will be a vaccine, but I do think a more effective treatment will be found in time. If no treatment is possible, then I doubt society will ever return to normal - because enough people will be petrified of the risks to allow that to happen. It's worth noting that the question doesn't explicitly state what social distancing means - does it mean people avoiding contact with strangers and crossing the street to never come within two metres of others? That will probably be around forever. Does it mean the closure of pubs, cafes, restaurants, and other social places? That will be over within a few months (though possibly with some changes). Large scale events like concerts and sporting fixtures will probably be a long way off indeed - already events in the summer are being postponed and I can see that continuing through into the autumn. No organisation or event is going to want to take the risk of being labelled a virus spreader, and that fear of bad publicity will be responsible for cancelled events long after we've got a handle on the pandemic.
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 39,119
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Apr 12, 2020 18:38:13 GMT
Can't see that being kept up. And what's this "until"? The assumption that this vaccine will appear seems to be at the heart of the unquestioning compliance I don't necessarily know that it will be a vaccine, but I do think a more effective treatment will be found in time. If no treatment is possible, then I doubt society will ever return to normal - because enough people will be petrified of the risks to allow that to happen. It's worth noting that the question doesn't explicitly state what social distancing means - does it mean people avoiding contact with strangers and crossing the street to never come within two metres of others? That will probably be around forever. Does it mean the closure of pubs, cafes, restaurants, and other social places? That will be over within a few months (though possibly with some changes). Large scale events like concerts and sporting fixtures will probably be a long way off indeed - already events in the summer are being postponed and I can see that continuing through into the autumn. No organisation or event is going to want to take the risk of being labelled a virus spreader, and that fear of bad publicity will be responsible for cancelled events long after we've got a handle on the pandemic. As I say, they are going to have to learn to live with risk. No choice. They'll soon do so when the handouts disappear. If they want to hide away from the world, to be frank, their contribution to it would be minimal anyway. Going out to work will mean taking risks. Load of pathetic wimps. And if organisations want to survive they will have to take the risks too.
|
|
|
Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Apr 12, 2020 19:54:42 GMT
I don't necessarily know that it will be a vaccine, but I do think a more effective treatment will be found in time. If no treatment is possible, then I doubt society will ever return to normal - because enough people will be petrified of the risks to allow that to happen. It's worth noting that the question doesn't explicitly state what social distancing means - does it mean people avoiding contact with strangers and crossing the street to never come within two metres of others? That will probably be around forever. Does it mean the closure of pubs, cafes, restaurants, and other social places? That will be over within a few months (though possibly with some changes). Large scale events like concerts and sporting fixtures will probably be a long way off indeed - already events in the summer are being postponed and I can see that continuing through into the autumn. No organisation or event is going to want to take the risk of being labelled a virus spreader, and that fear of bad publicity will be responsible for cancelled events long after we've got a handle on the pandemic. As I say, they are going to have to learn to live with risk. No choice. They'll soon do so when the handouts disappear. If they want to hide away from the world, to be frank, their contribution to it would be minimal anyway. Going out to work will mean taking risks. Load of pathetic wimps. And if organisations want to survive they will have to take the risks too.
So we need to avoid such catch 22 situations.
EG.
1) The Government will need to legislate against people being able to be sued for being the centre of an outbreak. 2) For those in at risk groups are self employed; if the Government says theys should continue to self isolate they will have to continue with financial support for them whilst withdraw it from others. etc
π½
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 39,119
Member is Online
|
Opinium
Apr 12, 2020 21:21:15 GMT
via mobile
Post by Merseymike on Apr 12, 2020 21:21:15 GMT
Risk groups? Not many people over 70 self-employed.
|
|
clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
|
Post by clyde1998 on Apr 16, 2020 18:13:25 GMT
Just looking at the datasets for this one, noticed a huge number of 2019 non-Conservative voters saying they don't know how they'd vote in a general election. If you reallocate the undecideds back to their 2019 vote, you get Con 49 (-6 on headline), Lab 31 (+2), Lib 7 (+2), SNP+PC 5 (nc), Grn 4 (nc), UKIP+Brx 2 (+1), Oth 2 (+1) - which is more like BMG's headline figures, which haven't showed much of a Conservative increase on the general election results. I would, therefore, expect to see the headline Conservative subside at some point even if the raw Conservative vote (ie. with undecided) doesn't actually fall.
|
|
|
Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Apr 16, 2020 19:53:45 GMT
Risk groups? Not many people over 70 self-employed.
so all diebetics and those with medical conditions of working age don't count?
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 39,119
Member is Online
|
Opinium
Apr 16, 2020 19:59:56 GMT
via mobile
Post by Merseymike on Apr 16, 2020 19:59:56 GMT
Risk groups? Not many people over 70 self-employed. so all diebetics and those with medical conditions of working age don't count?
How many of them have actually died?
|
|
|
Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Apr 16, 2020 20:09:06 GMT
so all diebetics and those with medical conditions of working age don't count?
How many of them have actually died?
Fewer than would have because the governement told them they are at risk and to self isolate!
If the government is already telling them they are at risk, the government should logically consider their situation going forward whilst the risk is still there for them; even whilst the rest of society returns to 'normal'.
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 39,119
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Apr 16, 2020 20:22:16 GMT
How many of them have actually died? Fewer than would have because the governement told them they are at risk and to self isolate! If the government is already telling them they are at risk, the government should logically consider their situation going forward whilst the risk is still there for them; even whilst the rest of society returns to 'normal'.
I have a friend in this category. He will not self isolate and goes out daily, and intends to continue That's because he recognises that life has its risks, but he would prefer to live it while he can.
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Apr 19, 2020 12:36:10 GMT
Latest poll:-
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Opinium
Apr 19, 2020 12:41:46 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2020 12:41:46 GMT
KS personal ratings have taken a hit; unfavourable up 9 favourable down 1 net down 10
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Opinium
Apr 26, 2020 10:08:51 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2020 10:08:51 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Opinium
Apr 26, 2020 10:09:40 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2020 10:09:40 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Opinium
Apr 26, 2020 10:15:36 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2020 10:15:36 GMT
KS personal ratings down again by 3 this time
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,483
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 26, 2020 11:05:54 GMT
"Impressive" figures from Davey there.
|
|
|
Opinium
Apr 26, 2020 12:46:44 GMT
via mobile
Post by pragmaticidealist on Apr 26, 2020 12:46:44 GMT
Are they basing the SNP seat figure on their UK percentage? Utterly pointless if so.
|
|