clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 17, 2022 10:30:12 GMT
To me at least, those Scottish seat figures seem more realistic than "projections" that have Labour sweeping England/Wales but the SNP still doing the same in Scotland. The SNP on 40% would be a bit lower than most polls are showing - with the SNP typically around 45% in recent polling. That’s going to be a big factor in why there’s a bigger swing towards Labour in Scotland than most other polls suggest. Worth saying also that independence support isn’t going to be considered in a GB-wide MRP, despite being the primary issue in Scotland, which has lead to the seat estimates for Scotland being more inaccurate come an election than England and Wales.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,531
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Opinium
Oct 17, 2022 10:30:58 GMT
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Post by iain on Oct 17, 2022 10:30:58 GMT
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Oct 17, 2022 11:12:19 GMT
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Oct 17, 2022 11:15:21 GMT
Also looks worse than the headline figures for the Tories, as there are some very high Green votes.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 17, 2022 11:28:40 GMT
Glancing at that, you can see some examples of why people think that on those national percentages the tactical voting could be much worse. Just glancing at a couple of constituencies near me: - I'd be highly surprised if The Cotswolds (on current boundaries) would see Labour on over 29% simultaneously with Lib Dems on less than 21% (though tbh I'd also be shocked by Conservatives as low as 38%) - In Somerton & Frome, if the Tories fell as low as they suggest (just under 35%) I doubt we'd see the 20% Lab/30% LibDem/11% Green split they suggest, I'd expect either Labour or (more likely, given past history, LD) squeeze on the other two to get one of them up into the higher 30s at least.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Oct 17, 2022 12:00:44 GMT
Clearly some very strong regional (or even county) subsamples, e.g. Labour winning every seat in Suffolk and 5 in Wiltshire Lib Dems winning 6 seats in Surrey Conservatives doing decently in the NW, including holding Pendle
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Opinium
Oct 17, 2022 12:06:25 GMT
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 17, 2022 12:06:25 GMT
Clearly some very strong regional (or even county) subsamples, e.g. Labour winning every seat in Suffolk and 5 in Wiltshire Lib Dems winning 6 seats in Surrey Conservatives doing decently in the NW, including holding Pendle Oh the ridiculous joys of subsamples. Pendle will never stay Tory with the current swings, let alone if Suffolk and Wiltshire are swinging to Labour.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Oct 17, 2022 12:09:00 GMT
Weirdest seat I've come across is Banff & Buchan, which seems out of line with most of their Scottish results, and bizarrely is a Tory hold:
Conservative - 32.5% (-17.6%) SNP - 26.8% (-13.6%) Labour - 20.3% (+16.2%) Lib Dem - 14.4% (+9.0%)
Spoke too soon - it has Plaid gaining Rhondda.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 17, 2022 12:18:18 GMT
I actually wouldn't be surprised that much if we held Banff. Scotland isn't that bad from a Unionist point of view. The Labour Party finally getting its act together is a necessary prerequisite for saving the unity of the country. Us maintaining second places across the south, Perthshire and north east is also good.
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 17, 2022 12:18:50 GMT
You can see where the MRP is coming from though. The Conservatives have currently lost an awful lot of support from their traditional middle-class working households, with moderately liberal social views. They are holding up better with small town socially conservative pensioners. Of course MRP by the very nature of what it does, underestimates Liberal Democrat chances in target seats, but I wish they’d stop moaning about it. Loss of support in prosperous towns would terrify me if I was a Conservative politician.
I incline to the belief that the Conservatives can’t come back from here, but self-evidently they will do much better than current polls, including this one, allow.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 17, 2022 12:18:51 GMT
Weird map...
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 17, 2022 12:26:09 GMT
Weirdest seat I've come across is Banff & Buchan, which seems out of line with most of their Scottish results, and bizarrely is a Tory hold: Conservative - 32.5% (-17.6%) SNP - 26.8% (-13.6%) Labour - 20.3% (+16.2%) Lib Dem - 14.4% (+9.0%) Spoke too soon - it has Plaid gaining Rhondda.From third place, with a quarter of Labour's vote at the last election? Much stupider than the Banff & Buchan prediction.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 17, 2022 12:27:22 GMT
Weirdest seat I've come across is Banff & Buchan, which seems out of line with most of their Scottish results, and bizarrely is a Tory hold: Conservative - 32.5% (-17.6%) SNP - 26.8% (-13.6%) Labour - 20.3% (+16.2%) Lib Dem - 14.4% (+9.0%) Spoke too soon - it has Plaid gaining Rhondda.From third place, with a quarter of Labour's vote at the last election? Much stupider than the Banff & Buchan prediction. A lot of the Welsh figures are very odd. Not quite sure what they've done there...
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clyde1998
SNP
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Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 17, 2022 12:36:23 GMT
Looking at the Welsh figures, it appears the VI is:
Lab 42.7% (+1.2) Con 23.5% (-12.6) PC 19.4% (+9.5) LDm 7.2% (+1.2) Grn 3.4% (+2.4) Oth 3.8% (-2.3)
That huge swing from the Conservatives to Plaid is probably causing the odd results in Wales.
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Opinium
Oct 17, 2022 12:37:33 GMT
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Post by bjornhattan on Oct 17, 2022 12:37:33 GMT
Clearly some very strong regional (or even county) subsamples, e.g. Labour winning every seat in Suffolk and 5 in Wiltshire Lib Dems winning 6 seats in Surrey Conservatives doing decently in the NW, including holding Pendle The constituency results in Wiltshire are certainly odd. Here are the swings (from Tory to Labour) in the five Labour gains: South Swindon - 16% North Swindon - 17% South West Wilts - 20% Salisbury - 22% Devizes - 28% (!) Devizes ends up with a larger Labour majority than North Swindon - which doesn't seem remotely realistic. A Labour win there full stop would be a stretch, even in these extreme conditions. Having said that, the other two Labour gains are more plausible. Over a third of South West Wiltshire's electorate live in the town of Trowbridge, and you'd expect Labour to win a big majority there which could offset any rural Conservative strength. Similarly, some of the Salisbury city wards such as Bemerton would be virtually monolithic for Labour in these conditions which might be enough to make the seat as a whole Labour.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,531
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Post by iain on Oct 17, 2022 12:40:47 GMT
Think you've got a few errors there: Should be Labour - Midlothian, Motherwell, Livingston, Linlithgow Should be Conservative - Rayleigh & Wickford
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,531
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Post by iain on Oct 17, 2022 12:45:37 GMT
I actually wouldn't be surprised that much if we held Banff. Scotland isn't that bad from a Unionist point of view. The Labour Party finally getting its act together is a necessary prerequisite for saving the unity of the country. Us maintaining second places across the south, Perthshire and north east is also good. Take it from a Lib Dem who witnessed 2015 - if you have a meltdown, you will lose all your marginal constituencies (so in Scotland all your constituencies). Individual seats will not be saved by special factors.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 17, 2022 12:47:43 GMT
Think you've got a few errors there: Should be Labour - Midlothian, Motherwell, Livingston, Linlithgow Should be Conservative - Rayleigh & Wickford Thanks - I've fixed those now.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Oct 17, 2022 12:58:33 GMT
Weird map... Weird but oddly plausible, it give the general idea of a 97 result, I think we'd maybe hold 3 or 4 seats in Scotland though, but the overall result would still be roughly 400 to Labour 150 to the blues 30-40 to the Lib Dems, 35+ to the SNP etc etc
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,531
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Post by iain on Oct 17, 2022 13:18:50 GMT
You can see where the MRP is coming from though. The Conservatives have currently lost an awful lot of support from their traditional middle-class working households, with moderately liberal social views. They are holding up better with small town socially conservative pensioners. Of course MRP by the very nature of what it does, underestimates Liberal Democrat chances in target seats, but I wish they’d stop moaning about it. Loss of support in prosperous towns would terrify me if I was a Conservative politician. I incline to the belief that the Conservatives can’t come back from here, but self-evidently they will do much better than current polls, including this one, allow. This MRP actually doesn't underestimate Lib Dem chances, it seems to have worked around the limitations quite well (which has led to a slightly odd-looking Labour underperformance in Finchley and Two Cities). It does seem to have given us some slightly odd seats while missing some more obvious ones, but that is the same for all parties in this poll. I don't agree that 'self-evidently' the Conservatives will do better than this however. This poll was taken in late September, before the weeks of chaos we have just seen, and the Opinium methodology already takes into account a degree of recovery (through reallocating 'don't knows'). There is probably over a 50% likelihood that the Conservatives will recover from this point, but there is certainly nothing inevitable about it.
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