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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 13, 2022 16:19:45 GMT
There comes a point when the adjustments to the raw polling figures tell you far more about the next election than the published poll.
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Post by kevinf on Feb 13, 2022 16:57:18 GMT
Now Claire Wright isn’t standing any more in Devon East, it can be ruled out as an Indy gain.
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 13, 2022 17:44:22 GMT
I agree. I was just reporting Elec Calc's findings. I also highly suspect that the LDs wouldnt be as low as 6 seats in any circumstance at the next GE. Its just a guida as to how things stand over a longer snapshot (6+ months or so)
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Feb 13, 2022 19:08:19 GMT
EC is pretty suspect in many respects, but particularly how they forecast the number of seats the Lib Dems would win.
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Post by woollyliberal on Feb 13, 2022 19:37:13 GMT
EC is pretty suspect in many respects, but particularly how they forecast the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. I think a lot of that is that the expect the SNP to swamp everyone everywhere. EC often forecast a LD wipe out north of the border which I don't think has ever happened.
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batman
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Post by batman on Feb 13, 2022 20:39:22 GMT
last time the Liberals didn't win a seat in Scotland was 1945. They gained Orkney & Shetland in 1950 & have held it ever since (as Lib Dem since that party's formation)
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Feb 13, 2022 20:40:41 GMT
EC is pretty suspect in many respects, but particularly how they forecast the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. Most of that is due to the inability of any national-based projection to accurately deal with localised campaigning, which smaller parties depend on. Other factors include: the failure to use anything other than the most recent general election as a guide of party strength, not using sub-national factors in projections (such as independence support in Scotland or Welsh-speaking ability in Wales), not splitting seats into contest type (eg. Con vs LDm), most predictions level out party support across the country (rather than maintaining for 'extreme' support in specific areas). You could argue the figures are more of an estimate of raw party support without tactical voting rather than accurate seat projections for smaller parties - although even that has major flaws. My seat (Newbury), for example, currently has Con 42.5 (-14.9), LDm 25.0 (-5.4), Lab 22.1 (+14.8), Grn 5.3 (+1.2), Oth 2.7 (+1.2), RUK 2.4 (+2.4) on Electoral Calculus. That's possible, if you take that as raw support for each party, but very unlikely when it comes to voting in a general election: the 2017 election is the only time since 1979 where Labour have exceeded 10% in a general election here - and that was largely down to a nationally abnormal election result in terms of two-party share. If you say Labour would get 10% and give all the remainder to the Lib Dems - then the Lib Dems on 37.1% seems much more realistic (based on the current national figures). With a serious Lib Dem campaign, that Labour (and Green) figure would almost certainly be squeezed further. Two neighbouring seats Witney and Wantage have Labour ahead of, or level with, the Lib Dems - both seats a probably more likely to go Lib Dem than Newbury. That's just me looking at my own seat - let alone the other 631 in Great Britain. EDIT: I meant Henley in this post, rather than Witney (although I've noticed Witney has Labour in second as well ).
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batman
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Post by batman on Feb 13, 2022 22:40:51 GMT
EC is pretty suspect in many respects, but particularly how they forecast the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. Most of that is due to the inability of any national-based projection to accurately deal with localised campaigning, which smaller parties depend on. Other factors include: the failure to use anything other than the most recent general election as a guide of party strength, not using sub-national factors in projections (such as independence support in Scotland or Welsh-speaking ability in Wales), not splitting seats into contest type (eg. Con vs LDm), most predictions level out party support across the country (rather than maintaining for 'extreme' support in specific areas). You could argue the figures are more of an estimate of raw party support without tactical voting rather than accurate seat projections for smaller parties - although even that has major flaws. My seat (Newbury), for example, currently has Con 42.5 (-14.9), LDm 25.0 (-5.4), Lab 22.1 (+14.8), Grn 5.3 (+1.2), Oth 2.7 (+1.2), RUK 2.4 (+2.4) on Electoral Calculus. That's possible, if you take that as raw support for each party, but very unlikely when it comes to voting in a general election: the 2017 election is the only time since 1979 where Labour have exceeded 10% in a general election here - and that was largely down to a nationally abnormal election result in terms of two-party share. If you say Labour would get 10% and give all the remainder to the Lib Dems - then the Lib Dems on 37.1% seems much more realistic (based on the current national figures). With a serious Lib Dem campaign, that Labour (and Green) figure would almost certainly be squeezed further. Two neighbouring seats Witney and Wantage have Labour ahead of, or level with, the Lib Dems - both seats a probably more likely to go Lib Dem than Newbury. That's just me looking at my own seat - let alone the other 631 in Great Britain. generally sound reasoning though Labour may have enough support in Chipping Norton & Witney itself to stay in second in Witney. In Wantage I'd certainly agree & also re Newbury
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Opinium
Feb 13, 2022 22:55:24 GMT
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Post by philipgraves on Feb 13, 2022 22:55:24 GMT
Most of that is due to the inability of any national-based projection to accurately deal with localised campaigning, which smaller parties depend on. Other factors include: the failure to use anything other than the most recent general election as a guide of party strength, not using sub-national factors in projections (such as independence support in Scotland or Welsh-speaking ability in Wales), not splitting seats into contest type (eg. Con vs LDm), most predictions level out party support across the country (rather than maintaining for 'extreme' support in specific areas). You could argue the figures are more of an estimate of raw party support without tactical voting rather than accurate seat projections for smaller parties - although even that has major flaws. My seat (Newbury), for example, currently has Con 42.5 (-14.9), LDm 25.0 (-5.4), Lab 22.1 (+14.8), Grn 5.3 (+1.2), Oth 2.7 (+1.2), RUK 2.4 (+2.4) on Electoral Calculus. That's possible, if you take that as raw support for each party, but very unlikely when it comes to voting in a general election: the 2017 election is the only time since 1979 where Labour have exceeded 10% in a general election here - and that was largely down to a nationally abnormal election result in terms of two-party share. If you say Labour would get 10% and give all the remainder to the Lib Dems - then the Lib Dems on 37.1% seems much more realistic (based on the current national figures). With a serious Lib Dem campaign, that Labour (and Green) figure would almost certainly be squeezed further. Two neighbouring seats Witney and Wantage have Labour ahead of, or level with, the Lib Dems - both seats a probably more likely to go Lib Dem than Newbury. That's just me looking at my own seat - let alone the other 631 in Great Britain. generally sound reasoning though Labour may have enough support in Chipping Norton & Witney itself to stay in second in Witney. In Wantage I'd certainly agree & also re Newbury Will be interesting to see what happens with boundary changes in Oxfordshire as Chipping Norton and Charlbury are put into Banbury constituency while Bicester is taken out which almost transforms it into a longshot Labour target. I think Wantage, however it is drawn will be the only viable LD target in Oxfordshire at the next election though.
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 13, 2022 23:07:48 GMT
generally sound reasoning though Labour may have enough support in Chipping Norton & Witney itself to stay in second in Witney. In Wantage I'd certainly agree & also re Newbury Will be interesting to see what happens with boundary changes in Oxfordshire as Chipping Norton and Charlbury are put into Banbury constituency while Bicester is taken out which almost transforms it into a longshot Labour target. I think Wantage, however it is drawn will be the only viable LD target in Oxfordshire at the next election though. Please stop this misuse of viable. You really mean 'possible target', 'probable target', or 'sensible target'. Viable means 'capable of sustaining a life form'! As we refer to LDs that is a singularly poor choice of a misused word!
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Opinium
Feb 13, 2022 23:25:51 GMT
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Post by bjornhattan on Feb 13, 2022 23:25:51 GMT
generally sound reasoning though Labour may have enough support in Chipping Norton & Witney itself to stay in second in Witney. In Wantage I'd certainly agree & also re Newbury Will be interesting to see what happens with boundary changes in Oxfordshire as Chipping Norton and Charlbury are put into Banbury constituency while Bicester is taken out which almost transforms it into a longshot Labour target. I think Wantage, however it is drawn will be the only viable LD target in Oxfordshire at the next election though. Bicester could be interesting. It isn't obvious Lib Dem territory, but combines some of their best areas in West Oxon (Woodstock, Eynsham) with an area used to voting Lib Dem nationally (Kidlington). But Bicester itself, where there isn't the Lib Dem history or obviously good demographics for them, will be the main issue. There's time for the Lib Dems to build a local base there before 2023, but there might not be the resources considering how many other targets there are in the area.
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Opinium
Feb 14, 2022 10:50:03 GMT
via mobile
Post by andrew111 on Feb 14, 2022 10:50:03 GMT
Most of that is due to the inability of any national-based projection to accurately deal with localised campaigning, which smaller parties depend on. Other factors include: the failure to use anything other than the most recent general election as a guide of party strength, not using sub-national factors in projections (such as independence support in Scotland or Welsh-speaking ability in Wales), not splitting seats into contest type (eg. Con vs LDm), most predictions level out party support across the country (rather than maintaining for 'extreme' support in specific areas). You could argue the figures are more of an estimate of raw party support without tactical voting rather than accurate seat projections for smaller parties - although even that has major flaws. My seat (Newbury), for example, currently has Con 42.5 (-14.9), LDm 25.0 (-5.4), Lab 22.1 (+14.8), Grn 5.3 (+1.2), Oth 2.7 (+1.2), RUK 2.4 (+2.4) on Electoral Calculus. That's possible, if you take that as raw support for each party, but very unlikely when it comes to voting in a general election: the 2017 election is the only time since 1979 where Labour have exceeded 10% in a general election here - and that was largely down to a nationally abnormal election result in terms of two-party share. If you say Labour would get 10% and give all the remainder to the Lib Dems - then the Lib Dems on 37.1% seems much more realistic (based on the current national figures). With a serious Lib Dem campaign, that Labour (and Green) figure would almost certainly be squeezed further. Two neighbouring seats Witney and Wantage have Labour ahead of, or level with, the Lib Dems - both seats a probably more likely to go Lib Dem than Newbury. That's just me looking at my own seat - let alone the other 631 in Great Britain. generally sound reasoning though Labour may have enough support in Chipping Norton & Witney itself to stay in second in Witney. In Wantage I'd certainly agree & also re Newbury Labour were in a rather distant 3rd place in Witney in 2019. Has that election been erased from the Labour memory bank? (I don't think you can talk about "staying in second place" in the context of EC predictions)
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batman
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Post by batman on Feb 14, 2022 18:12:44 GMT
my memory bank is not that of the entire party, it belongs to me. On this occasion it let me down.
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Post by woollyliberal on Feb 26, 2022 20:10:31 GMT
23-25 Feb 2022 Con 34% Lab 38% (+1) Lib Dem 11% Green 6%
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 27, 2022 10:55:25 GMT
Are there any figures for this poll in "old money"?
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 27, 2022 11:35:09 GMT
you mean "imperial measures"?
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 27, 2022 13:02:13 GMT
you mean "imperial measures"? I think he means landed gentry rather than trade.
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Post by woollyliberal on Feb 27, 2022 13:24:56 GMT
Are there any figures for this poll in "old money"? No, but given that the only change is Lab + 1, I think you can work it out from last time's figures.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 3, 2022 11:25:04 GMT
It doesn't work as simply as that, though - far from impossible that the "old" Labour lead edged down in this poll, even as the "new" one edged up.
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Opinium
Mar 5, 2022 21:19:17 GMT
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Post by london(ex)tory on Mar 5, 2022 21:19:17 GMT
Should there be an Opinium tonight?
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