Kantar/TNS/BMRB

[Deleted]

well we do have this sudden divergence between YG and the rest, only YG have shown the narrowing that got a few excited last week for at the moment unknown reasons.

[mrhell]

Lab 36
Con 34
UKIP 13
LD 9

[Deleted]

Good polls today.

[Deleted]

Oct 15, 2013 14:03:13 GMT joe said:

Good polls today.

I am becoming increasingly confident that the Conservatives can get the most votes and seats in 2015, although an overall majority remains a very tall order. In my view, the biggest foreseeable threat will probably be an increase in UKIP support in the aftermath next years' European Parliament elections rather than from Ed Miliband directly. No complacency, though.

[The Bishop]

Except that whole post smells of complacency

Go on, though - carry on underestimating Miliband, it has served him well so far.

[Deleted]

Oct 15, 2013 16:09:25 GMT The Bishop said:

Except that whole post smells of complacency

Go on, though - carry on underestimating Miliband, it has served him well so far.

Thing is, it hasn't really. These (albeit on the tory side of average) are really poor for a mid-term opposition. Milibands own figures are dire. I would never underestimate the easy appeal of labour, but EM is a total liability and o don't see how anything has served him well so far. If anyone is complacent its surely the reds. What happened to the 12 point leads last year?

[Deleted]

Oct 15, 2013 16:09:25 GMT The Bishop said:

Except that whole post smells of complacency

Go on, though - carry on underestimating Miliband, it has served him well so far.

Thing is, it hasn't really. These (albeit on the tory side of average) are really poor for a mid-term opposition. Milibands own figures are dire. I would never underestimate the easy appeal of labour, but EM is a total liability and o don't see how anything has served him well so far. If anyone is complacent its surely the reds. What happened to the 12 point leads last year?

[The Bishop]

The idea that Labour is doing "really poorly" in the polls is a myth, as the likes of Anthony Wells have explained umpteen times.

(basically, polls prior to 1992 are worth zilch save as historical records - and they are only really comparable with now from about 2002-03)

What happened to the leads last year?? They have narrowed a bit - it happens. They can also increase again (as the last parliament shows, btw)

[Deleted]

I'm struggling to think of a way to express my confidence without appearing complacent to our opponents. Obviously there's no point in trying. I did say getting an overall majority would be a tall order.

[Deleted]

Oct 15, 2013 17:00:13 GMT The Bishop said:

The idea that Labour is doing "really poorly" in the polls is a myth, as the likes of Anthony Wells have explained umpteen times.

(basically, polls prior to 1992 are worth zilch save as historical records - and they are only really comparable with now from about 2002-03)

What happened to the leads last year?? They have narrowed a bit - it happens. They can also increase again (as the last parliament shows, btw)

Tories in 2008 is a reasonable comparison to make. I

I personally am confident about most votes, but not most seats.

P.S. TNS/BMRB are one of the most labour friendly pollsters. With yougov this would be about even, and with ICM a tory lead.

[Deleted]

Oct 15, 2013 15:06:16 GMT swanarcadian said:

Oct 15, 2013 14:03:13 GMT joe said:

Good polls today.

I am becoming increasingly confident that the Conservatives can get the most votes and seats in 2015, although an overall majority remains a very tall order. In my view, the biggest foreseeable threat will probably be an increase in UKIP support in the aftermath next years' European Parliament elections rather than from Ed Miliband directly. No complacency, though.

It might be worth giving a list of the constituencies that you think will make up the Tory seats as I agree that an overall majority is a tall order for either party but I still can't see Labour's share of the vote being under 35%, more likely 36%-38%.
If the Lib Dems, as seems most likely, lose a significant number of seats (one could argue the case as to what that number might be), will they be in a position to put the coalition back together and, to be honest, would they want to?
I still think Labour is more likely to be the biggest party, not because of complacency, but because of the way the vote pattern seems to be emerging and the threat from UKIP, which I accept effects Labour and the Lib Dems as well albeit in a more localised way than the Tories, which will undermine Tory hopes in the marginals.
Marginal polls still show Labour stronger than national polls.

[The Bishop]

Oct 15, 2013 17:08:29 GMT joe said:

Oct 15, 2013 17:00:13 GMT The Bishop said:

The idea that Labour is doing "really poorly" in the polls is a myth, as the likes of Anthony Wells have explained umpteen times.

(basically, polls prior to 1992 are worth zilch save as historical records - and they are only really comparable with now from about 2002-03)

What happened to the leads last year?? They have narrowed a bit - it happens. They can also increase again (as the last parliament shows, btw)

Tories in 2008 is a reasonable comparison to make. I

I personally am confident about most votes, but not most seats.

P.S. TNS/BMRB are one of the most labour friendly pollsters. With yougov this would be about even, and with ICM a tory lead.

OK then, let us talk about 2008 - the Tories had a massive lead in the summer, but by the end of that year some polls were (like today's) almost neck and neck. My real point, though, is that Labour fell well behind again come the following year - too many people think polls move in a strictly linear fashion, they don't.

There are quite a few reasons to think this could be rather a rough winter for the government - we shall see......

(oh, I know about TNS/BMRB - so why has ICM, sampled at about the same time, given us a four point lead?)

[Deleted]

Oct 15, 2013 17:16:21 GMT The Bishop said:

Oct 15, 2013 17:08:29 GMT joe said:

Tories in 2008 is a reasonable comparison to make. I

I personally am confident about most votes, but not most seats.

P.S. TNS/BMRB are one of the most labour friendly pollsters. With yougov this would be about even, and with ICM a tory lead.

OK then, let us talk about 2008 - the Tories had a massive lead in the summer, but by the end of that year some polls were (like today's) almost neck and neck. My real point, though, is that Labour fell well behind again come the following year - too many people think polls move in a strictly linear fashion, they don't.

There are quite a few reasons to think this could be rather a rough winter for the government - we shall see......

(oh, I know about TNS/BMRB - so why has ICM, sampled at about the same time, given us a four point lead?)

The bank bailouts caused a sharp movement towards labour that reversed pretty quickly - this doesn't appear to such a volatile parliament as of yet - hopefully nothing on the scale of that kind of thing will happen. 

ICM 4 point lead would be a 6 ish from yougov, which is probably within MOE, I would hazard a guess that the yougov picture at the moment is something like a 4-5 point lab lead. I wasn't trying to claim that 1-2 points is the typical lead.

[Deleted]

As Wells on UKPR has said often, it may be that Labour 'should' be doing better (they haven't won many Tory 2010, voters for example) but that is not the same as saying they are not doing well enough to win next time. This is mainly because this parliament is not like recent parliaments - the coalition has generated a swing away from the LDs which is disproportionately going to Labour, and in the last year UKIP have established themselves in GE polling predominantly (if not solely) at the expense of the Tories. If you combine the potential impact of those two factors, it may be that the next election sees a change of government despite there being almost no exchange of votes between the two largest parties. From that POV, it's hard to say how well Labour 'should' be doing because we haven't been in this sort of electoral position before.

[carlton43]

Oct 15, 2013 17:04:48 GMT swanarcadian said:

I'm struggling to think of a way to express my confidence without appearing complacent to our opponents. Obviously there's no point in trying. I did say getting an overall majority would be a tall order.

I still think it is out of the question. If nothing spectacular happens between now and the GE except for a reasonable performence by UKIP next year, then there will be a squeeze on UKIP and LibDems as the nation tends to polarize towards the majors. But incumbency for the LibDems and efficient spread of activity may still return them a similar slate of numbers (bit down). UKIP likely to see perhaps 30% squeeze and very few seats or none.  But even at that level the damage to Conservative chances in 60-75 seats are manifest. One-time die-hard Conservatives like me are so pissed off by Cameron and the modernisers that we will do our best to sink him by maximum below the water damage. There are a lot of us and we are very angry and we shall not revert under any circumstances. That is the stark new feature for 2015. We are not afeared of a Labour win. It is personal. We want his guts.

[Andrew_S]

My reading of the polls at the moment is that they make a hung parliament in 2015 a 90% possibility. That could change of course if the polls change significantly.

[erlend]

I would read the polls as having suggested a Labour majority. There ahave been signs of late that this is shaky. Not just the poll figures by party but also a reduction in the governmental unpopularity rating.

[East Anglian Lefty]

I read the polls in concert with local elections results as suggesting that Labour is narrowly ahead nationwide, but we're overperforming somewhat in northern and midland marginals. Given our pretty efficient vote distribution, that suggests to me that any lead at all would bring a majority and that even a narrow deficit and disappointing southern results wouldn't necessarily prevent us getting a narrow majority. Although obviously small differences in the polls could worsen our position significantly.

I'm personally going to remain sceptical about the possibility of a Tory majority unless I see multiple Labour-held seats which the Tories carry in the 2014 locals with a swing in their favour from the 2010 locals. I just think that the electorate is too polarised for a late large swing and that if there is a Tory path to a majority, the traces need to be visible by next May.

[Crimson King]

I take the view that in the event that the result in 2015 is not one I (or anyone else for that matter) likes, then arguing that it is wrong because the polls suggested something different is unlikely to be fruitful.

[Tony Otim]

Except it probably won't.