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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 19, 2019 16:00:02 GMT
Con gain by 1. Afterwards, Stephen Hepburn reveals he used a random number generator to decide whether or not to back Johnson.
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Vibe
Non-Aligned
Posts: 931
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Post by Vibe on Nov 19, 2019 17:01:43 GMT
Kantar also showed a 18% Tory lead in mid-May 2017 just over 3 weeks before Polling Day. No doubt the polls will converge and Kantor are overestimating the Tories...but the recent polls show what an uphill task Corbyn faces, starting tonight, with becoming PM. Unless Boris has a "car crash" debate, it looks more and more likely he will be PM on 13th December.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,483
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 20, 2019 11:25:35 GMT
This poll is again saying that turnout will be approaching historic highs with the over 60s - and at an all time low with everybody else. Totally credible
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Post by tonygreaves on Nov 20, 2019 16:02:08 GMT
Anyone got any suicide pills?
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 20, 2019 16:04:52 GMT
Anyone got any suicide pills? possibly best not to jest about such things your lordship.
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 26, 2019 8:21:26 GMT
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Nov 26, 2019 8:36:53 GMT
After the ICM and Welsh polls yesterday, a trend is emerging of a narrowing Tory lead after the release of Labour's manifesto.
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 26, 2019 8:39:52 GMT
After the ICM and Welsh polls yesterday, a trend is emerging of a narrowing Tory lead after the release of Labour's manifesto.
True but it isn't based on a drop in Tory support (taking the average, which for the Conservatives hasn't been above 43% at any stage). It's a movement from LD and Green to Labour once again.
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Post by froome on Nov 26, 2019 8:42:00 GMT
After the ICM and Welsh polls yesterday, a trend is emerging of a narrowing Tory lead after the release of Labour's manifesto.
True but it isn't based on a drop in Tory support (taking the average, which for the Conservatives hasn't been above 43% at any stage). It's a movement from LD and Green to Labour once again. Probably true, but it would help if the Green percentage was actually given...
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2019 10:26:23 GMT
After the ICM and Welsh polls yesterday, a trend is emerging of a narrowing Tory lead after the release of Labour's manifesto.
Yes, it looks as though the Conservatives have stabilised or fallen back fractionally, while Labour continues to nibble away at the Lib Dems. So far so predictable, though the question remains of where Labour's ceiling, and the Lib Dem and Green floor, will be by polling day. It certainly looks as though Labour's manifesto has not done it any actual harm so far, and that the Conservatives show no sign of breaking out into landslide territory.
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 26, 2019 13:02:40 GMT
After the ICM and Welsh polls yesterday, a trend is emerging of a narrowing Tory lead after the release of Labour's manifesto.
If you selectively pick out the ICM and Welsh polls, yes
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,483
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 26, 2019 13:04:35 GMT
If you "selectively pick out" the three most recent polls, then.
Even with the weekend surveys, the only ones that showed the Tory lead increasing had altered their methodology in a way that favoured them.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 26, 2019 13:12:51 GMT
After the ICM and Welsh polls yesterday, a trend is emerging of a narrowing Tory lead after the release of Labour's manifesto.
If you selectively pick out the ICM and Welsh polls, yes We only have a couple of national surveys to measure its effects yet, but these are the only completely post-Labour manifesto polls. Edit: Kantar isn't entirely post-manifesto, so it's really just ICM we have so far (and one poll isn't good enough).
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Post by archaeologist on Dec 3, 2019 8:55:16 GMT
The latest Kantar poll is out, no detail yet other than headlines. uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-poll-kantar-idUKKBN1Y70PQ?utm_source=reddit.com"The poll put support for the Conservatives at 44%, up one point from a week earlier, while Labour was unchanged on 32%. The pro-European Union Liberal Democrats were up one point on 15%, while the Brexit Party was down one point on 2%. Kantar surveyed 1,096 people online between Nov. 28 and Dec. 2." The last poll from each of the 10 polling organisations now has a Con lead varying from 6% to 15%, just about the extremes of margin of error. They also have the Don't Knows and Refusing to Says from 7% to 21%. Will the Don't Knows simply not vote, or will they plump and if so for whom? I still think the polls are going to be a poor guide the result this time round. May be one of them on the margins will get close again. Who knows?
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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 3, 2019 8:58:49 GMT
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Post by casualobserver on Dec 3, 2019 20:48:47 GMT
I’d been waiting with some concern for this Kantar poll, personally believing that a Con lead of under 10% pointed to a dangerous tightening of the race. Delighted to see the poll lead increase, but it’s only one poll and now must start worrying what the next batch of polls may bring.
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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 3, 2019 20:57:11 GMT
I’d been waiting with some concern for this Kantar poll, personally believing that a Con lead of under 10% pointed to a dangerous tightening of the race. Delighted to see the poll lead increase, but it’s only one poll and now must start worrying what the next batch of polls may bring. The average polling numbers haven't changed very much recently. There's been a slight movement from LD to Lab with the Cons staying about the same.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,483
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 4, 2019 11:36:30 GMT
That score for the LibDems is starting to look a bit out of place.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2019 11:57:46 GMT
21% of 18-25s are definitely going to vote according to Kantar. Seems extraordinary low in comparison with:
ICM: 53% ComRes: 56% Opinium: 57% Survation: 64%
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Dec 4, 2019 14:29:49 GMT
Opinion polls always overstate turnout. Not just for youngsters, but for every age group.
It's one of the great difficulties of polling actually. A 50% turnout for under 25s compared to 25% will change several results.
21% for 18-25 year olds does seem very low - but direction of travel is still important.
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