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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 18, 2015 21:22:25 GMT
That would be bonkers. If it were anywhere near true, surely the Tory vote would be very regionalised and would translate into seats. But does sound like misreading of a sample.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2015 6:13:09 GMT
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Aug 20, 2015 20:27:02 GMT
AC is in the frame for that particular cretinous analysis!
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 19, 2015 11:31:27 GMT
First full post-Corbyn poll coming tonight - ComRes for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror. According to John Rentoul: blogs.independent.co.uk/2015/09/19/poll-alert-56/"As well as voting intention, we asked people if they had a favourable or unfavourable view of the following: Jeremy Corbyn, Tom Watson, John McDonnell, Chuka Umunna, David Cameron, George Osborne, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Tim Farron, Nick Clegg, Vince Cable, Nicola Sturgeon And we asked if people agreed or disagreed with the following statements: Jeremy Corbyn is a danger to national security David Cameron is a danger to national security Jeremy Corbyn is a danger to economic security Jeremy Corbyn is making more people interested in politics Jeremy Corbyn should have sung the national anthem at the Battle of Britain memorial Jeremy Corbyn offers a positive difference from other politicians At 70 years old, Jeremy Corbyn would be too old to be prime minister at the next general election Jeremy Corbyn is being treated unfairly by the media Jeremy Corbyn should smarten up his appearance by shaving off his beard"
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 19, 2015 11:40:31 GMT
First full post-Corbyn poll coming tonight - ComRes for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror. According to John Rentoul: blogs.independent.co.uk/2015/09/19/poll-alert-56/"As well as voting intention, we asked people if they had a favourable or unfavourable view of the following: Jeremy Corbyn, Tom Watson, John McDonnell, Chuka Umunna, David Cameron, George Osborne, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Tim Farron, Nick Clegg, Vince Cable, Nicola Sturgeon And we asked if people agreed or disagreed with the following statements: Jeremy Corbyn is a danger to national security David Cameron is a danger to national security Jeremy Corbyn is a danger to economic security Jeremy Corbyn is making more people interested in politics Jeremy Corbyn should have sung the national anthem at the Battle of Britain memorial Jeremy Corbyn offers a positive difference from other politicians At 70 years old, Jeremy Corbyn would be too old to be prime minister at the next general election Jeremy Corbyn is being treated unfairly by the media Jeremy Corbyn should smarten up his appearance by shaving off his beard" I suspect most people will have nodded off before the end of all that lot.
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 19, 2015 18:47:51 GMT
More marmite on the field.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 19, 2015 18:51:10 GMT
Most interesting crossbreak so far is on the question of whether Jeremy Corbyn would be too old (at 70) to be Prime Minister. The young disagree; a plurailty of people over 55 agree.
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 19, 2015 18:55:22 GMT
Most interesting crossbreak so far is on the question of whether Jeremy Corbyn would be too old (at 70) to be Prime Minister. The young disagree; a plurailty of people over 55 agree. We of the older cadre know just how difficult it will be for him to keep up the necessary pace from our own experience.
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Post by johnsmith on Sept 19, 2015 19:34:35 GMT
First full post-Corbyn poll coming tonight - ComRes for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror. According to John Rentoul: blogs.independent.co.uk/2015/09/19/poll-alert-56/"As well as voting intention, we asked people if they had a favourable or unfavourable view of the following: Jeremy Corbyn, Tom Watson, John McDonnell, Chuka Umunna, David Cameron, George Osborne, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Tim Farron, Nick Clegg, Vince Cable, Nicola Sturgeon And we asked if people agreed or disagreed with the following statements: Jeremy Corbyn is a danger to national security David Cameron is a danger to national security Jeremy Corbyn is a danger to economic security Jeremy Corbyn is making more people interested in politics Jeremy Corbyn should have sung the national anthem at the Battle of Britain memorial Jeremy Corbyn offers a positive difference from other politicians At 70 years old, Jeremy Corbyn would be too old to be prime minister at the next general election Jeremy Corbyn is being treated unfairly by the media Jeremy Corbyn should smarten up his appearance by shaving off his beard" Thanks for that. An interesting read, but generally inconclusive thus far - though as ever I remain astonished by the relative popularity of that buffoonish cad Boris Johnson. Thus far, it seems the election of Corbyn hasn't changed many minds yet in one direction or another, with people still holding to what they'd already believed. As yet, Corbyn appears not to have changed many minds away from the positions they'd already arrived at in the event of his election. Worryingly, one fifth of those who voted Labour in 2015 say they will be less likely to do so next time if Corbyn remains in charge. This is significant information for his enemies within the party. But it must be pointed out that "less likely to" is in no way the same as "definitely won't", and many of these probably haven't definitively made up their minds yet either. I believe many are observing for a while to see how things start panning out before starting to reach any firmer conclusions. Which is not unnatural when he has only been leader for a week. This is the period when he and his team can potentially make the strongest impact - either positively or negatively - before firmer opinions start to solidify. But there is one crucial factor that the poll didn't seem to measure - or at least it wasn't mentioned in the summary of it which I read. But this factor is of great potential importance, since much of Corbyn's appeal is calibrated towards those disenchanted with the way things are and who have given up on voting. And that is, how many people who didn't vote last time will consider voting Labour because of Corbyn's election? There could well be very few, or it might be a significantly larger number. Probably, it's too early for many of them to have been persuaded of anything either. But it is a factor that polling ought to try and measure. Because his whole appeal is calibrated towards re-engaging the disenchanted and forgotten.
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 19, 2015 19:49:58 GMT
First full post-Corbyn poll coming tonight - ComRes for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror. According to John Rentoul: blogs.independent.co.uk/2015/09/19/poll-alert-56/"As well as voting intention, we asked people if they had a favourable or unfavourable view of the following: Jeremy Corbyn, Tom Watson, John McDonnell, Chuka Umunna, David Cameron, George Osborne, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Tim Farron, Nick Clegg, Vince Cable, Nicola Sturgeon And we asked if people agreed or disagreed with the following statements: Jeremy Corbyn is a danger to national security David Cameron is a danger to national security Jeremy Corbyn is a danger to economic security Jeremy Corbyn is making more people interested in politics Jeremy Corbyn should have sung the national anthem at the Battle of Britain memorial Jeremy Corbyn offers a positive difference from other politicians At 70 years old, Jeremy Corbyn would be too old to be prime minister at the next general election Jeremy Corbyn is being treated unfairly by the media Jeremy Corbyn should smarten up his appearance by shaving off his beard" Thanks for that. An interesting read, but generally inconclusive thus far - though as ever I remain astonished by the relative popularity of that buffoonish cad Boris Johnson. Thus far, it seems the election of Corbyn hasn't changed many minds yet in one direction or another, with people still holding to what they'd already believed. As yet, Corbyn appears not to have changed many minds away from the positions they'd already arrived at in the event of his election. Worryingly, one fifth of those who voted Labour in 2015 say they will be less likely to do so next time if Corbyn remains in charge. This is significant information for his enemies within the party. But it must be pointed out that "less likely to" is in no way the same as "definitely won't", and many of these probably haven't definitively made up their minds yet either. I believe many are observing for a while to see how things start panning out before starting to reach any firmer conclusions. Which is not unnatural when he has only been leader for a week. This is the period when he and his team can potentially make the strongest impact - either positively or negatively - before firmer opinions start to solidify. But there is one crucial factor that the poll didn't seem to measure - or at least it wasn't mentioned in the summary of it which I read. But this factor is of great potential importance, since much of Corbyn's appeal is calibrated towards those disenchanted with the way things are and who have given up on voting. And that is, how many people who didn't vote last time will consider voting Labour because of Corbyn's election? There could well be very few, or it might be a significantly larger number. Probably, it's too early for many of them to have been persuaded of anything either. But it is a factor that polling ought to try and measure. Because his whole appeal is calibrated towards re-engaging the disenchanted and forgotten. All I can tell you from our by election on Thursday was that people had definitely noticed him and mentioned him while we were canvassing and there were certainly a couple who voted Labour this time because of it. But as you can see from the result, the turnout was er, not great so there was certainly no general rush to the polls as a result. And this is North London. But as you say - early days.
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Post by greenchristian on Sept 20, 2015 20:47:04 GMT
Worryingly, one fifth of those who voted Labour in 2015 say they will be less likely to do so next time if Corbyn remains in charge. This is significant information for his enemies within the party. But it must be pointed out that "less likely to" is in no way the same as "definitely won't", and many of these probably haven't definitively made up their minds yet either. It should also be pointed out that this kind of question has precisely zero psephelogical value. Most people have very little understanding of what drives their behaviour, and even if they did, there's no indication of how much impact whatever is being asked will have. Corbyn's election makes me slightly more likely to vote Labour, the probability of me voting Green at the next election is still over 99%. We should interpret this kind of question as "I approve / do not approve" of Corbyn's election as Labour leader.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2015 21:37:43 GMT
I notice that Labour's +2 matches the Greens -2. Green voters switching to Labour because of Corbyn? Possibly. We would need a few more polls to confirm such a trend, that is if we can trust them again after what happened in May.
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Post by tonygreaves on Oct 6, 2015 19:23:32 GMT
Life trundles on and the polls ripple the occasional puddle.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2015 19:41:00 GMT
Life trundles on and the polls ripple the occasional puddle. While you're here Tony, I read in Crewe & King's book that you spoke out against the merger between the Liberals and SDP along with Michael Meadowcroft. Did you consider joining the Liberal Party as opposed to the Lib Dems as he did? Just curious.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2015 21:13:48 GMT
I remember the glorious Claire Brooks, during the merger debate, declaring that "as long as she was alive" there'd be a Liberal Party in Skipton and Ripon. Eee, I loved conference season in the '80s.
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 6, 2015 21:31:37 GMT
I remember the glorious Claire Brooks, during the merger debate, declaring that "as long as she was alive" there'd be a Liberal Party rib Skipton and Ripon. Eee, I loved conference season in the '80s. A nice obituary for Brooks by Michael Meadowcroft: www.bramley.demon.co.uk/obits/brooks.html
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,400
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 7, 2015 15:25:34 GMT
Was the Liberal (Alliance) candidate in Lancaster at the 1987 GE - told everybody she would win and came a poor third, bless her Admit she was likeable, though - was also involved in CND activism then (like I was) and I recall her blasting the cold warriors like Dr Death on occasion. (her predecessor as Liberal hopeful there in 1983 was the late Bill Booth, if anything even further to the left than she was)
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Post by tonygreaves on Oct 7, 2015 17:00:15 GMT
I don't think Claire was all that much to the left, just loud and pushy. She had some very traditional Liberal principles (free trade and peace). The "little Liberal party" (now diminished to a very odd group of rather illiberal people) was not formed until about a year after the merger. Some of the members were in limbo, not having joined the merged party. Others defected from the SLD (as it was then) including Michael Meadowcroft. No, not me. Claire's sister Beth Graham was active in the Liberals for a while.
Tony
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Post by tonygreaves on Oct 17, 2015 19:37:29 GMT
Yawn. Still in the traditional government honeymoon period which may be the most significant factor for the time being.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2015 19:56:33 GMT
Lets all pretend (as we did in the Miliband era) that we can ignore the shocking leadership figures.
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