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Post by matureleft on Jul 13, 2021 14:06:11 GMT
Yes I know all that, and indeed they may have rejected his application to rejoin had such an application been forthcoming, although presumably they would have had some difficulty in extending an original sanction if no further grounds for action had taken place - if they didn’t want an abuser in their ranks then permanently expel him at the time of the criminal proceedings. Yes, that is a prevalent pattern of abuse, but, having typed domestic violence court reports for over a decade before my father’s passing, I’m equally aware that your statement is - knowing you - a deliberate generalisation that doesn’t actually fit the real world. No tim, it isn't. And you really don't know me at all. Few here do. I have been concerned in assisting three females who have suffered and I live with one who did, and two of her sisters have also suffered. I am too well acquainted with the syndrome to take it lightly. Regrettably in my experience often true. I can think of a couple of cases where the woman in question forgave the partner and let him back into her life. In every case that my advice was sought I said that abusers very, very frequently repeat their behaviour and that domestic abuse is about power in a relationship not momentary, substance induced violence. Low self-esteem, sometimes generated in that relationship, can be a problem for the person abused - not feeling they deserve more, or that they cause the behaviour, or that this is some kind of love. These things make domestic abuse a difficult crime to prosecute requiring skilled, empathetic police work. So no, I wouldn't see the matter as closed simply on the say so of the partner.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 13, 2021 15:45:46 GMT
No tim, it isn't. And you really don't know me at all. Few here do. I have been concerned in assisting three females who have suffered and I live with one who did, and two of her sisters have also suffered. I am too well acquainted with the syndrome to take it lightly. Regrettably in my experience often true. I can think of a couple of cases where the woman in question forgave the partner and let him back into her life. In every case that my advice was sought I said that abusers very, very frequently repeat their behaviour and that domestic abuse is about power in a relationship not momentary, substance induced violence. Low self-esteem, sometimes generated in that relationship, can be a problem for the person abused - not feeling they deserve more, or that they cause the behaviour, or that this is some kind of love. These things make domestic abuse a difficult crime to prosecute requiring skilled, empathetic police work. So no, I wouldn't see the matter as closed simply on the say so of the partner. I agree, but given that there is nothing even hinted at that this was anything other than a one off incident, given that a caution was deemed appropriate thereby indicating the offence was at the lowest end of the scale, and the perpetrator didn’t contest the allegations at any point and referred himself for disciplinary investigation by Plaid, I would be leaning on the side of the situation being under control.
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 13, 2021 16:05:50 GMT
Regrettably in my experience often true. I can think of a couple of cases where the woman in question forgave the partner and let him back into her life. In every case that my advice was sought I said that abusers very, very frequently repeat their behaviour and that domestic abuse is about power in a relationship not momentary, substance induced violence. Low self-esteem, sometimes generated in that relationship, can be a problem for the person abused - not feeling they deserve more, or that they cause the behaviour, or that this is some kind of love. These things make domestic abuse a difficult crime to prosecute requiring skilled, empathetic police work. So no, I wouldn't see the matter as closed simply on the say so of the partner. I agree, but given that there is nothing even hinted at that this was anything other than a one off incident, given that a caution was deemed appropriate thereby indicating the offence was at the lowest end of the scale, and the perpetrator didn’t contest the allegations at any point and referred himself for disciplinary investigation by Plaid, I would be leaning on the side of the situation being under control. Do you honestly and sincerely believe that it was a completely one-off incident?
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jul 13, 2021 19:43:34 GMT
Regrettably in my experience often true. I can think of a couple of cases where the woman in question forgave the partner and let him back into her life. In every case that my advice was sought I said that abusers very, very frequently repeat their behaviour and that domestic abuse is about power in a relationship not momentary, substance induced violence. Low self-esteem, sometimes generated in that relationship, can be a problem for the person abused - not feeling they deserve more, or that they cause the behaviour, or that this is some kind of love. These things make domestic abuse a difficult crime to prosecute requiring skilled, empathetic police work. So no, I wouldn't see the matter as closed simply on the say so of the partner. I agree, but given that there is nothing even hinted at that this was anything other than a one off incident, given that a caution was deemed appropriate thereby indicating the offence was at the lowest end of the scale, and the perpetrator didn’t contest the allegations at any point and referred himself for disciplinary investigation by Plaid, I would be leaning on the side of the situation being under control. If it was a one-off incident, I doubt someone would have involved the police.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 13, 2021 19:48:49 GMT
I agree, but given that there is nothing even hinted at that this was anything other than a one off incident, given that a caution was deemed appropriate thereby indicating the offence was at the lowest end of the scale, and the perpetrator didn’t contest the allegations at any point and referred himself for disciplinary investigation by Plaid, I would be leaning on the side of the situation being under control. Do you honestly and sincerely believe that it was a completely one-off incident? I have no idea, but equally I have no reason not to believe Mrs Richards, and with the proviso that Wales might have a different system (as might England in the 32 years since my dad died) but child protection officers would have been satisfied that it was an appropriate environment in which to leave their two children.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2021 20:19:51 GMT
Yes I know all that, and indeed they may have rejected his application to rejoin had such an application been forthcoming, although presumably they would have had some difficulty in extending an original sanction if no further grounds for action had taken place - if they didn’t want an abuser in their ranks then permanently expel him at the time of the criminal proceedings. Yes, that is a prevalent pattern of abuse, but, having typed domestic violence court reports for over a decade before my father’s passing, I’m equally aware that your statement is - knowing you - a deliberate generalisation that doesn’t actually fit the real world. No Tim, it isn't. And you really don't know me at all. Few here do. I have been concerned in assisting three females who have suffered and I live with one who did, and two of her sisters have also suffered. I am too well acquainted with the syndrome to take it lightly. After repeated beatings, repeated moments of mental and physical injury, and countless other types of abuse, my mum finally got the courage to leave the house, with my sister and I (and a hamster) in tow, and finally had the courage to phone his parents to let the know *everything* I was hurled against radiators. My sister was slapped. It took a LOT, for all of us, because abusive fathers have control from day 1. Bravery is far harder to achieve than cowardice.
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 13, 2021 22:36:30 GMT
No Tim, it isn't. And you really don't know me at all. Few here do. I have been concerned in assisting three females who have suffered and I live with one who did, and two of her sisters have also suffered. I am too well acquainted with the syndrome to take it lightly. After repeated beatings, repeated moments of mental and physical injury, and countless other types of abuse, my mum finally got the courage to leave the house, with my sister and I (and a hamster) in tow, and finally had the courage to phone his parents to let the know *everything* I was hurled against radiators. My sister was slapped. It took a LOT, for all of us, because abusive fathers have control from day 1. Bravery is far harder to achieve than cowardice. I am aware of all of that and just extend sympathy and empathy. Those are such destabilizing events at crucial stages of personal development. I was lucky in that part of the lottery of life.
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Post by rcronald on Jul 18, 2021 15:02:15 GMT
If you actually read the article you had linked it would be abundantly clear that it is Edwards himself who has chosen not to reapply for membership of Plaid, not the Party waiting for anything to do with boundary changes or even the behaviour which got him suspended in the first place. Nevertheless, it is a foregone conclusion that Carmarthen will succeed Carmarthen East & Dinefwr in constituency terms after this review, and that even if Jonathan Edwards rejoins Plaid Cymru he will likely be deselected as a consequence. Michael Brotherton got deselected by the Conservatives for less in 1983. I am 90% certain that the new Carmarthen would be notionally conservative anyway.
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Post by Penddu on Jul 21, 2021 19:38:44 GMT
Nevertheless, it is a foregone conclusion that Carmarthen will succeed Carmarthen East & Dinefwr in constituency terms after this review, and that even if Jonathan Edwards rejoins Plaid Cymru he will likely be deselected as a consequence. Michael Brotherton got deselected by the Conservatives for less in 1983. I am 90% certain that the new Carmarthen would be notionally conservative anyway. I am 90% certain that you are wrong.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 21, 2021 20:12:14 GMT
I am 90% certain that the new Carmarthen would be notionally conservative anyway. I am 90% certain that you are wrong. I am 100% certain that he is right
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Post by greenhert on Jul 21, 2021 22:21:24 GMT
I am 90% certain that you are wrong. I am 100% certain that he is right He is correct, just. In practice Plaid Cymru will be clear favourites to win it however.
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Post by rcronald on Jul 22, 2021 2:52:23 GMT
I am 100% certain that he is right He is correct, just. In practice Plaid Cymru will be clear favourites to win it however. Even if Simon Hart is the candidate? (assuming Crabb is the candidate for Pembrookshire)
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Post by greenhert on Jul 22, 2021 9:08:55 GMT
He is correct, just. In practice Plaid Cymru will be clear favourites to win it however. Even if Simon Hart is the candidate? (assuming Crabb is the candidate for Pembrookshire) Stephen Crabb would have the greater claim to the South Pembrokeshire seat, yes. Although the BCW have still not released their initial recommendations for parliamentary constituencies in Wales it is inevitable at this point how Dyfed's new constituencies will turn out.
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Post by rcronald on Jul 22, 2021 9:18:19 GMT
Even if Simon Hart is the candidate? (assuming Crabb is the candidate for Pembrookshire) Stephen Crabb would have the greater claim to the South Pembrokeshire seat, yes. Although the BCW have still not released their initial recommendations for parliamentary constituencies in Wales it is inevitable at this point how Dyfed's new constituencies will turn out. Carbb would probably be the candidate for South Pembrokeshire (I would personally call it Permbrokeshire). What I asked (and guessed) is that having a high profile candidate in Simon Hart would probably help the Tories in Carmerthen.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2021 16:11:53 GMT
Even if Simon Hart is the candidate? (assuming Crabb is the candidate for Pembrookshire) Stephen Crabb would have the greater claim to the South Pembrokeshire seat, yes. Although the BCW have still not released their initial recommendations for parliamentary constituencies in Wales it is inevitable at this point how Dyfed's new constituencies will turn out. What's the timetable for BCW?
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jul 23, 2021 16:37:34 GMT
Stephen Crabb would have the greater claim to the South Pembrokeshire seat, yes. Although the BCW have still not released their initial recommendations for parliamentary constituencies in Wales it is inevitable at this point how Dyfed's new constituencies will turn out. What's the timetable for BCW? September. No news from Scotland since they published electorates on March 30th. They did not even publish a guide or guidelines yet. Northern Ireland says "autumn".
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Post by Penddu on Aug 13, 2021 12:02:32 GMT
Stephen Crabb would have the greater claim to the South Pembrokeshire seat, yes. Although the BCW have still not released their initial recommendations for parliamentary constituencies in Wales it is inevitable at this point how Dyfed's new constituencies will turn out. Carbb would probably be the candidate for South Pembrokeshire (I would personally call it Permbrokeshire). What I asked (and guessed) is that having a high profile candidate in Simon Hart would probably help the Tories in Carmerthen. By high profile I assume you mean widely despised....and fail to see how that will help his cause.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 13, 2021 14:22:07 GMT
Carbb would probably be the candidate for South Pembrokeshire (I would personally call it Permbrokeshire). What I asked (and guessed) is that having a high profile candidate in Simon Hart would probably help the Tories in Carmerthen. By high profile I assume you mean widely despised....and fail to see how that will help his cause. So despised that he's increased his share of the vote at every successive election, and it is now over 50%.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Aug 13, 2021 14:39:13 GMT
By high profile I assume you mean widely despised....and fail to see how that will help his cause. So despised that he's increased his share of the vote at every successive election, and it is now over 50%. His vote share fell in 2015. Also, whilst it increased in 2017, his majority was cut to just a couple of hundred.
Still, you're right that someone who gets above 50% of the vote can hardly be described as despised.
If they both want it, there will be a real fight for the new Pembrokeshire seat. Ceredigion and Preseli will be a very likely Plaid hold/ gain and the Carmarthen seat a very tough fight. I think we look quite strong and are in the running for it too.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 13, 2021 14:42:45 GMT
So despised that he's increased his share of the vote at every successive election, and it is now over 50%. His vote share fell in 2015. Also, whilst it increased in 2017, his majority was cut to just a couple of hundred.
Still, you're right that someone who gets above 50% of the vote can hardly be described as despised.
If they both want it, there will be a real fight for the new Pembrokeshire seat. Ceredigion and Preseli will be a very likely Plaid hold/ gain and the Carmarthen seat a very tough fight. I think we look quite strong and are in the running for it too.
41.1 in 2010 to 43.7 in 2015, although I did get that from Wikipedia.
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