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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 5, 2018 10:36:38 GMT
It can be very difficult to tell when the ballot boxes are first opened. Quite easy to see a whole batch of votes for one party and presume it's significant, when they might be just the one Tory family living in a Labour area, or the one student household who all went to vote together in their solidly middle class area. You really need to sample a decent number of votes and from all the polling stations.
Also people like to ramp up the tension at counts; it keeps them from falling asleep in the long periods of waiting around.
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Post by AdminSTB on Oct 5, 2018 10:39:27 GMT
It seems quite common for reports at the count to say that a contest (at parliamentary level as well as council) is "looking close" and then for it to actually turn out not close at all. Whilst ramping is certainly a thing, isn't the truth that results are often hard to call until all the votes are in? And perhaps our host can inform us what was behind one of the (in retrospect) strangest rumours ever - that the LibDems had won Perry Barr at the 2005 GE?? I think people often don't understand that the on the day votes can sometimes be substantially different to the postal votes and get the wrong idea early on. I remember in 2002, thinking we'd won Sparkhill quite handily maybe by 300 or so - which we did on the boxes only to find the substantial number of postal votes breaking around 90% Lab and losing by 300. The other truth is that people sometimes don't know how the boxes fall etc and what the patterns are and can be mislead by early boxes. I have not a clue about the Perry Barr count of 2005, I was deeply engrossed in the Hall Green count. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Oct 5, 2018 10:40:01 GMT
It seems quite common for reports at the count to say that a contest (at parliamentary level as well as council) is "looking close" and then for it to actually turn out not close at all. Whilst ramping is certainly a thing, isn't the truth that results are often hard to call until all the votes are in? And perhaps our host can inform us what was behind one of the (in retrospect) strangest rumours ever - that the LibDems had won Perry Barr at the 2005 GE?? The Lib Dems won Perry Barr *ward* - we still hold that one - and someone not aware of the coexistence of wards and Westminster constituencies with the same names in Birmingham took two and two and made five. That'd be my supposition, anyway. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Oct 5, 2018 10:40:58 GMT
It seems quite common for reports at the count to say that a contest (at parliamentary level as well as council) is "looking close" and then for it to actually turn out not close at all. Whilst ramping is certainly a thing, isn't the truth that results are often hard to call until all the votes are in? And perhaps our host can inform us what was behind one of the (in retrospect) strangest rumours ever - that the LibDems had won Perry Barr at the 2005 GE?? The Lib Dems won Perry Barr *ward* - we still hold that one - and someone not aware of the coexistence of wards and Westminster constituencies with the same names in Birmingham took two and two and made five. That'd be my supposition, anyway. But 2005 was the fallow year. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Oct 5, 2018 10:42:41 GMT
The Lib Dems won Perry Barr *ward* - we still hold that one - and someone not aware of the coexistence of wards and Westminster constituencies with the same names in Birmingham took two and two and made five. That'd be my supposition, anyway. But 2005 was the fallow year. Then they were looking at the boxes from the Perry Barr ward area only, maybe? Dunno, it is an odd one. We've never really been close in the Commons seat. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Oct 5, 2018 10:43:04 GMT
Anyway, has anyone heard any news from Thirsk?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 5, 2018 10:47:37 GMT
Other than that the Conservatives have won, no.
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 5, 2018 10:47:45 GMT
Anyway, has anyone heard any news from Thirsk? Conservative hold - no figures yet |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 5, 2018 10:50:21 GMT
Anyway, has anyone heard any news from Thirsk? Hambleton council have tweeted that Dave Elders has been elected |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 5, 2018 10:55:03 GMT
Other than that the Conservatives have won, no. and that scarcely counts as news |
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Yorkie
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Post by Yorkie on Oct 5, 2018 11:15:11 GMT
Figures we have are:
Con 679, Labour 251, Yorkshire Party 108.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 5, 2018 11:35:52 GMT
Figures we have are: Con 679, Labour 251, Yorkshire Party 108. Those are confirmed as the numbers on HDC’s website |
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Post by matureleft on Oct 5, 2018 12:41:44 GMT
Con HOLD Soham North & Isleham (Cambridgeshire) Con 858 LD 527 Lab 191 Ind 182 The boundaries of the County divisions in this area have altered dramatically since the 1990s. I recall that then there was a division firmly centred on Soham with pretty small elements outside (Wicken for example). I took part in a winning Labour by-election campaign there with an excellent ex-services candidate. I think he dropped out of things but Labour still nearly won the division in 1997 with a different candidate. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 5, 2018 12:47:34 GMT
Figures we have are: Con 679, Labour 251, Yorkshire Party 108. Was that about what you expected? |
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 5, 2018 12:50:29 GMT
Cambridgeshire, Soham North & Isleham - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | | Conservative | 858 | 48.8% | -17.4% | Liberal Democrat | 527 | 30.0% | +12.5% | Labour | 191 | 10.9% | -5.5% | Independent | 182 | 10.4% | from nowhere | Total votes | 1,758 |
| 77% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 15% since 2017 Council now 36 Conservative, 14 Liberal Democrat, 7 Labour, 4 Independent Chesterfield, Moor - Liberal Democrat gain from Labour| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 532 | 47.1% | +12.1% | +14.0% | +3.8% | +4.5% | Labour | 445 | 39.4% | -9.9% | -11.3% | -17.3% | -18.1% | Conservative | 84 | 7.4% | -8.3% | -8.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 69 | 6.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 1,130 |
| 59% | 61% | 76% | 80% |
Swing Labour to Liberal Democrat 11% / 12¾% since 2015 and 10¾% / 11¼% since 2011 Council now 36 Labour, 10 Liberal Democrat, 2 Independent Hambleton, Thirsk - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Conservative | 679 | 65.4% | -0.4% | +0.1% | Labour | 251 | 24.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Yorkshire | 108 | 10.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independents * |
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| -34.2% | -34.7% | Total votes | 1,038 |
| 35% | 40% |
* highest placed of 2 Independents in 2015 was former Conservative Councillor, lowest placed Independent is Labour candidate in by-election Swing not meaningful Council now 27 Conservative, 1 Yorkshire (elected UKIP)
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Yorkie
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Post by Yorkie on Oct 5, 2018 13:02:10 GMT
Figures we have are: Con 679, Labour 251, Yorkshire Party 108. Was that about what you expected? Roughly. Our candidate didn't live in the ward, no meaningful campaigning took place, and the Labour candidate had previously done pretty well as an Independent. Against that background, 10% feels respectable. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2018 20:02:41 GMT
Con HOLD Soham North & Isleham (Cambridgeshire) Con 858 LD 527 Lab 191 Ind 182 I was at the count. The Conservatives polled best in Isleham, home of their candidate, with about two-thirds of the votes and carried postal votes by a fair margin. The Lib Dems fought back in the two polling districts which form part of Soham South district ward and the swing was greatest there. There were serious issues surrounding the by-election which played well for the Lib Dems - the early resignation of the sitting councillor, controversy over appointments to the staff of the Combined Authority and the intervention of 'gadfly' Independent candidate Geoffrey Woollard who campaigned vigorously and made a robust attack on Conservative policies and personalities. The Lib Dems also benefited from the fact that the Labour candidate ran into difficulties about unfortunate tweets sent some time ago but unearthed during the campaign. The local press was also strong in its opposition to developments at the Combined Authority and the editor of the Ely Standard made no secret of his political leanings in social media forays. So large a swing in traditional Conservative territory will have the Tories nervously looking to their defences as the all-out East Cambs elections due next May loom on the horizon.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2018 2:36:09 GMT
Con HOLD Soham North & Isleham (Cambridgeshire) Con 858 LD 527 Lab 191 Ind 182 I was at the count. The Conservatives polled best in Isleham, home of their candidate, with about two-thirds of the votes and carried postal votes by a fair margin. The Lib Dems fought back in the two polling districts which form part of Soham South district ward and the swing was greatest there. There were serious issues surrounding the by-election which played well for the Lib Dems - the early resignation of the sitting councillor, controversy over appointments to the staff of the Combined Authority and the intervention of 'gadfly' Independent candidate Geoffrey Woollard who campaigned vigorously and made a robust attack on Conservative policies and personalities. The Lib Dems also benefited from the fact that the Labour candidate ran into difficulties about unfortunate tweets sent some time ago but unearthed during the campaign. The local press was also strong in its opposition to developments at the Combined Authority and the editor of the Ely Standard made no secret of his political leanings in social media forays. So large a swing in traditional Conservative territory will have the Tories nervously looking to their defences as the all-out East Cambs elections due next May loom on the horizon.
I accept that we're in an era of great political upheaval, but surely not even the mot pessimistic Conservative (or anybody else for that matter) believes they might actually find a way to lose control of East Cambridgeshire? |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 6, 2018 7:38:56 GMT
Con HOLD Soham North & Isleham (Cambridgeshire) Con 858 LD 527 Lab 191 Ind 182 I was at the count. The Conservatives polled best in Isleham, home of their candidate, with about two-thirds of the votes and carried postal votes by a fair margin. The Lib Dems fought back in the two polling districts which form part of Soham South district ward and the swing was greatest there. There were serious issues surrounding the by-election which played well for the Lib Dems - the early resignation of the sitting councillor, controversy over appointments to the staff of the Combined Authority and the intervention of 'gadfly' Independent candidate Geoffrey Woollard who campaigned vigorously and made a robust attack on Conservative policies and personalities. The Lib Dems also benefited from the fact that the Labour candidate ran into difficulties about unfortunate tweets sent some time ago but unearthed during the campaign. The local press was also strong in its opposition to developments at the Combined Authority and the editor of the Ely Standard made no secret of his political leanings in social media forays. So large a swing in traditional Conservative territory will have the Tories nervously looking to their defences as the all-out East Cambs elections due next May loom on the horizon.
I am grateful for Bencornack's full report which does tend to confirm what I said earlier was likely to be the case- that the Tories would have held on reasonably comfortably in the end because of a strong vote in Isleham, but the vote in Soham itself was likely to have been very close. One suspects this to be a general feature in E Cambs and similar areas- the smaller villages and deeply rural areas staying Tory but the larger villages and small towns being more volatile. Whether that is enough to threaten Tory hegemony in somewhere as solidly Tory as East Cambs is another question. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2018 13:03:48 GMT
If the swing in Soham North & Isleham was repeated throughout the East Cambs District then the Lib Dems would lead the Tories by 5% in the overall vote. Last year the Conservatives were badly beaten in a by-election at Ely South when the new Mayor of Cambridgeshire appointed a fellow ECDC councillor to his staff. The feeling then was that the Lib Dems had benefited from the (somewhat unfair?) 'jobs for the boys' reaction to the appointment and also from a swing away from the Conservatives in the 58% Remain-voting city. Local Conservatives felt that there would be less traction for the Liberal Democrats in quite heavily Leave-voting Soham but this was not the case as the latter party homed in on the appointment, at a fairly high salary, of Tory Cllr Paul Raynes to the Mayor's staff. Rightly judging that opinion was not with the Cambridgeshire Mayor, Liberal Democrat leaflets described Mark Goldsack as 'Mayor Palmer's candidate' - an inaccurate but telling jibe that was repeated on the doorstep during canvassing. The by-election in this humble observer's opinion was very much about voters' negative perceptions of the Combined Authority and its Mayor - a Soham man.
The division, for those who like these kind of statistics, voted about 60% Conservative, 30% Labour and 10% Liberal Democrat at the 2017 General Election. This was, in fact, the weakest Liberal Democrat area in the SE Cambs constituency but the Party has achieved a much higher level of support than that in all recent local elections.
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