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Post by tiberius on Jan 8, 2019 9:28:42 GMT
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Post by tiberius on Jan 8, 2019 10:02:40 GMT
Party key:
Center Party=C
Irish Labour Party=ILP
Unionist Party=U
Alliance=A
Green=G
Sinn Fein=SF
Democratic Unionist=DUP
Galway: all of County Galway bar the Conamara LEA. 1 C, 1 U.
Mayo: the rest of Connacht. this is a tough one - the overriding factor is, how strong is the Indepedent vote? I'd guess, in this scenario, that in the end the Center vote is strong enough to take what otherwise would be an Independent seat. 2 C, 1 U.
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Post by tiberius on Jan 8, 2019 10:38:21 GMT
Clare: this is a one-seater with a Unionist lean. 1 U.
Waterford: another one-seater. This one likely leans towards Center. 1 C.
Tipperary: all of County Tipperary, and the LEAs of Kilmallock and Nenagh. 1 C, 1 U.
Limerick-Kerry: all of County Kerry and the rest of County Limerick. The Independent vote is stronger here than elsewhere, so I guess one of the Healy Raes would get elected here. 1 C, 1 U, 1 IND.
Cork City: this covers the 6 LEAs in the city of Cork. I guess Center would win here. 1 C.
East Cork: the LEAs of Ballincollig - Carrigaline, Cobh, East Cork, and Fermoy. 1 C, 1 U.
West Cork: the rest of Cork. 1 C, 1 U.
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Post by tiberius on Jan 8, 2019 11:53:23 GMT
Wexford-Wicklow: the counties of Wicklow, Carlow, and Wexford. 1 U, 1 C, 1 1LP.
Kilkenny: the county of Kilkenny. Center likely wins here. 1 C.
Kildare: the county of Kildare. 1 C, 1 U.
Midlands: all of the counties of Laois, Offaly, Westmeath, and Longford, and the Trim LEA in County Meath. 1 C, 1 U, 1 SF.
Meath-Louth: all but one LEA in County Meath and all of County Louth. 1 C, 1 U, 1 SF.
Dublin Fingal: all of Fingal, bar the LEA of Castleknock. 1 C, 1 ILP.
Dublin Rathdown: all of Dún Laoghaire–Rathdown. 1 C, 1 ILP.
Dublin South: all of the county of South Dublin. 1 C, 1 U, 1 ILP.
Dublin City South: all of Dublin city south of the Liffey River. 1 C, 1 SF.
Dublin City North: all of Dublin city north of the Liffey River, and Castleknock LEA. 1 U, 1 SF, 1 ILP.
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Post by tiberius on Jan 8, 2019 13:28:28 GMT
Erne: the counties of Cavan, Monaghan, Fermanagh, Donegal. I'd guess 1 C, 1 SF, 1 U.
Armagh-Tyrone: the counties of Armagh and Tyrone. 1 DUP, 1 C, 1 SF.
Londonderry: the county of Londonderry. 1 C, 1 DUP.
North Antrim: all of Antrim located in council areas to the north of the Antrim and Newtownabbey council area. 1 DUP, 1 U.
Belfast: all of the city of Belfast. 1 DUP, 1 SF, 1 A.
South Antrim-Lisburn: all of the Lisburn and Castlereagh and Antrim and Newtownabbey council areas. 1 DUP, 1 U, 1 A.
Bann: all of the areas simulatenously within the Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon council area and counties Down or Antrim. 1 DUP.
South Down: the rest of County Down. 1 C, 1 DUP, 1 U.
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Post by tiberius on Jan 8, 2019 13:47:00 GMT
Island of Great Britain: 284 LAB, 264 CON, 19 SNP, 20 LD, 1 GRN, 1 PC.
Island of Ireland: 23 C, 16 U, 7 DUP, 7 SF, 5 ILP, 2 A, 1 IND.
Total: 284 Labour, 264 Conservative, 23 Center, 20 Liberal Democrat, 19 Scottish Nationalist, 16 Unionist, 7 Democratic Unionist, 7 Sinn Fein, 5 Irish Labour, 2 Alliance, 1 Green, 1 Independent, 1 Plaid Cymru
total is 651 so something must be off with the math somewhere. But that has little effect on the overall math.
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