UK AV/STV constituencies w/Ireland

[tiberius]

Northampton: this is a somewhat Tory-leaning three-seater. 2 CON, 1 LAB.
West Northamptonshire: rural territory north of Northampton. 1 CON, 1 LAB.
Kettering and Corby: this seat has a very tiny Conservative lean, but it doesn't really matter - it still has a tie in seat count. 1 CON, 1 LAB.
Rutland and East Leicestershire: this contains most of the land area of Leicestershire. 2 CON, 1 LAB.
Leicester: Labour has the advantage here. 2 LAB, 1 CON.
Loughborough: Tory-leaning areas of varying Toryness north and west of Leicester city. 2 CON, 1 LAB.
South Derbyshire: areas in southern Derbyshire. 1 CON, 1 LAB.
Derby South: most of Derby. 1 LAB, 1 CON.
Derby North and Amber Valley: this seat is more Tory-friendly than Derby South. 1 CON, 1 LAB.
Erewash: this one-seater is Conservative-leaning. 1 CON.
Peak District: this seat is named for the National Park that lies mostly within it. 2 CON, 1 LAB.
Chesterfield: firmly Labour-leaning areas, including the home turf of the 'Beast of Bolsover'. 1 LAB, 1 CON.
Nottingham: a Labour-leaning urban constituency. 2 LAB, 1 CON.
Ashfield: this area was close in 2017, but Labour still likely ekes out a win. 2 LAB, 1 CON.
Rushcliffe: this is a one-seater. 1 CON.
Mansfield: easy one. 1 CON, 1 LAB.
Bassetlaw: another one-seater, and one with a modest but real Labour majority. 1 LAB.
South Lincolnshire: exactly what it says on the tin. This area's Conservative vote is so strong that Labour gets shut out. 2 CON.
Lincoln: another easy one. 1 CON, 1 LAB.
North Lincolnshire: northern Lincolnshire. a very solid 2 CON, 1 LAB.
Total: 25 CON, 20 LAB.
20 seats electing 45 members

[tiberius]

Grimsby and Scunthorpe: this is a Conservative-leaning seat with all of Humberside south of the Humber. 2 CON, 1 LAB.
Hull: Labour-leaning three-seater. Workers of the world, unite! 2 LAB, 1 CON.
East Riding of Yorkshire: most of the eponymous council area. 2 CON, 1 LAB.
Doncaster: Ed Miliband's turf. 2 LAB, 1 CON.
Rotherham: Here be Labour voters. 2 LAB, 1 CON.
Sheffield East: eastern parts of Sheffield. 2 LAB, 1 CON.
Sheffield North and Penistone: 2013 review says hello! 2 LAB, 1 LD.
Barnsley: the Tories only very narrowly get a seat here. 1 LAB, 1 CON.
Wakefield: Labour has a clear edge here. 2 LAB, 1 CON.
Huddersfield: this is more marginally pro-Labour than Wakefield, but it is still solid for 2 Laborites. 2 LAB, 1 CON.
Bradford South and Batley: see Rotherham. 2 LAB, 1 CON.
Bradford North: this is Labour leaning despite it including a large Tory-friendly area in its northern portion. Includes an orphan ward in Leeds. 2 LAB, 1 CON.
Calderdale: see Rotherham. 1 LAB, 1 CON.
Leeds South: here be more Labour voters. 2 LAB, 1 CON.
Leeds North: see Leeds South. 2 LAB, 1 CON.
Selby: this one-seater is Tory-leaning. 1 CON.
York: easy one. 1 LAB, 1 CON.
Richmond and North Yorkshire: lots of Tory voters. 2 CON, 1 LAB.
Harrogate: another Tory seat. 1 CON, 1 LAB.
Total: 29 LAB, 21 CON, 1 LD
19 seats electing 51 members.

[tiberius]

Carlisle: areas along the border with Scotland. 1 LAB, 1 CON.
Lake District: southern Cumbria. 1 LAB, 1 LD, 1 CON.
Lancaster: the Tories do well here. 2 CON, 1 LAB.
Blackpool: this seat leans towards Labour. 2 LAB, 1 CON.
West Lancashire: exactly what it says on the tin. 1 LAB.
Preston and Chorley: see Blackpool. 2 LAB, 1 CON.
Blackburn: see Blackpool. 2 LAB, 1 CON.
Burnley: Labour finishes ahead here, but not by all that much. 1 LAB, 1 CON.
Wigan: see Blackpool. 2 LAB, 1 CON.
Bolton: Labor has more votes here but the seat count ends up a tie. 1 LAB, 1 CON.
Bury: see Bolton. 1 LAB, 1 CON.
Rochdale: see Bolton. 1 LAB, 1 CON.
Oldham: see Bolton. 1 LAB, 1 CON.
Trafford: see Bolton. 1 LAB, 1 CON.
Salford: see Bolton. 1 LAB, 1 CON.
Stockport: Labour gets 2 of 3 seats here. 2 LAB, 1 CON.
Ashton-under-Lyne: see Bolton. 1 LAB, 1 CON.
Manchester South: Labour sweeps both seats due to the exact manner in which the opposition vote is split. 2 LAB.
Manchester North: Labour sweeps all three seats here, a feat they accomplish in few other places. 3 LAB.
Warrington: Labour gets 2 of 3 seats here. 2 LAB, 1 CON.
Macclesfield: easy one. 1 CON, 1 LAB.
Crewe and Nantwich: see Macclesfield. 1 CON, 1 LAB.
West Chesire: see Warrington. 2 LAB, 1 CON.
Wirral: see Warrington. 2 LAB, 1 CON.
Liverpool South: Labour easily sweeps here. 2 LAB.
Liverpool North: easy. 2 LAB.
Sefton: Another Labour seat in Merseyside: 2 LAB, 1 CON.
St. Helens and Huyton: Labour was not far from sweeping this seat in 2017. 2 LAB, 1 CON.
Total: 42 LAB, 24 CON, 1 LD
28 seats electing 67 members.

[tiberius]

Highlands and Moray: This is a 3-seater. I'd guess 1 SNP, 1 CON, 1 LD.
Aberdeenshire: Only the Tories and the SNP could have won seats here in 2017. 2 CON, 1 SNP.
Aberdeen: this one is pretty obvious. 1 CON, 1 SNP
Dundee and Angus: the bulk of the population here is in Dundee and in Angus. 1 SNP, 1 CON, 1 LAB.
Loch Lomond and Stirling: a Tory and an SNPer winning here are guaranteed. Unionist tactical voting would ensure the SNP doesn't get a second seat. 2 CON, 1 SNP.
North Fife: this one-seater, under FPTP, came within two votes of toppling an SNP incumbent in 2017. Here, it's practically certain the LDs pick it up. 1 LD.
South Fife: Unionist tactical voting would give Labour two seats here. 2 LAB, 1 SNP.
Dunbartonshire: I'd guess the result would be 1 SNP, 1 LD.
North Lanarkshire: Unionist tactical voting would give Labour two seats here. 2 LAB, 1 SNP.
Falkirk and Livingston: We get a three-way tie here. 1 SNP, 1 LAB, 1 CON.
Edinburgh South: Labour ran strong here in 2017, but the SNP still gets a tie. 1 LAB, 1 SNP.
Edinburgh North: This is tricky. I'd guess 1 SNP, 1 LD.
Glasgow North East: Unionist tactical voting would make this a solid 1 SNP, 1 LAB.
Glasgow North West: see Glasgow North East. 1 SNP, 1 LAB.
Glasgow South: see Glasgow North East. 1 SNP, 1 LAB.
Renfrewshire: I'd guess 1 SNP, 1 LAB, 1 CON.
South Lanarkshire: The Tories did quite well here in 2017. 1 SNP, 1 LAB, 1 CON.
Ayrshire: see South Lanarkshire. 1 SNP, 1 CON, 1 LAB.
Dumfries and Galloway: This covers the area of the seat that sent a Tory to Westminster in 2001, ending their status as an 'England-only' party. 1 CON, 1 SNP.
Borders and Lothian: No other possible outcome besides 1 SNP, 1 CON, 1 LAB.
Total: 19 SNP, 14 LAB, 13 CON, 4 LD
20 seats electing 50 members

[tiberius]

2 seats each for the Isle of Wight and the Channel Islands (both of which get two-member STV constituencies), 1 for the Isle of Man, and throw in Na h-Eileanan an Iar and Orkney and Shetland - that leaves 643 seats for the rest.
Thus:
Na h-Eileanan an Iar would narrowly go to Labor. 1 LAB.
Orkney and Shetland would go to the Liberal Democrats. 1 LD.
The Isle of Man seat goes Conservative. 1 CON.
The Isle of Wight seat elects 1 CON, 1 LD. The same goes for the Channel Islands seat.
End result: 284 LAB, 264 CON, 19 SNP, 20 LD, 1 GRN, 1 PC

All this is excluding the island of Ireland though...

[Adam in Stroud]

Sept 18, 2018 4:59:15 GMT tiberius said:

2 seats each for the Isle of Wight and the Channel Islands (both of which get two-member STV constituencies), 1 for the Isle of Man, and throw in Na h-Eileanan an Iar and Orkney and Shetland - that leaves 643 seats for the rest.
Thus:
Na h-Eileanan an Iar would narrowly go to Labor. 1 LAB.
Orkney and Shetland would go to the Liberal Democrats. 1 LD.
The Isle of Man seat probably goes Lib Dem. 1 LD.
The Isle of Wight seat elects 1 CON, 1 LD. The same goes for the Channel Islands seat.
End result: 284 LAB, 263 CON, 19 SNP, 21 LD, 1 GRN, 1 PC

All this is excluding the island of Ireland though...

I doubt it. Liberal Vannin (affiliated to the LDs) is the only organised party currently active on the IoM but they only hold two seats out of 24 in the House of Keys elections, the rest are independents (largely of the Conservative-by-another name variety.) I suspect if the IoM was shoe-horned into a British party system it'd vote Conservative.

Actually I think Fianna Fail might be a better fit for Manx politics. (Or, thinking about it, just possibly the Ulster Unionists).

[tiberius]

How should we assume Ireland goes, for the purpose of this experiment?

[tiberius]

Idea: Ireland has its own political system, with Westminster parties standing aside.
Center Party: Fianna Fail+SDLP; a modern-day version of the IPP but with a lot less dominance; they still strive to make deals with anyone
Irish Labour Party: Irish Labour+Social Democrats+Solidarity-PBP; affiliated with British Labour
Unionist Party: Fine Gael+UUP+TUV; affiliated with Conservative Party
Alliance: Alliance Party of NI; only stands in Ulster; affiliated with Liberal Democrats, and they're even more of a minor party than the Lib Dems are.
Green: Green Parties in both NI and RoI; affliated with UK Greens
Sinn Fein: Sinn Fein
DUP: Democratic Unionist Party; only stands in Ulster

this would be done to group political parties on both sides of the Irish border in a manner which would allow for calculation of electoral results.

[colm]

Ireland in this scenario would probably have their own parties that contest only in Ireland but perhaps have a loose alliance/partnership with the main GB parties. I am not sure if there would be a formal alliance like the CDU/CSU in Germany and Bavaria as I think the Irish parties would prefer more of a confidence and supply approach. Any alliance/partnership could potentially be stronger in NI.

[Deleted]

Sept 18, 2018 4:31:22 GMT tiberius said:

North Fife: this one-seater, under FPTP, came within two votes of toppling an SNP incumbent in 2017. Here, it's practically certain the LDs pick it up. 1 LD.
South Fife: Unionist tactical voting would give Labour two seats here. 2 LAB, 1 SNP.

Any particular reason why you've split Fife in this way rather than into two two-seat constituencies?

[greatkingrat]

Given the rules he is working under, it does make sense to keep NE Fife separate from Kirkcaldy / Glenrothes / Cowdenbeath / Dunfermline.

However more generally, the idea of 1 seat constituencies in this system does seem rather bizarre (except perhaps for remote islands). Just having one four seat Fife constituency would make a lot more sense.

[jamie]

There's also the problem that 3 seats is the absolute minimum you need for proportionality, and you would want 4-7 for most seats. Anything less than that and you only end up with the big 2 (if that) in the vast majority of areas.

[J.G.Harston]

Sept 17, 2018 23:38:19 GMT tiberius said:

(Yorkshire & Humber)
...

Sept 19, 2018 18:25:21 GMT jamie said:

There's also the problem that 3 seats is the absolute minimum you need for proportionality, and you would want 4-7 for most seats. Anything less than that and you only end up with the big 2 (if that) in the vast majority of areas.

I thought we'd discussed this before, but can't find it. This is what I drafted up for an STV Yorkshire:

Based on using local authorities as building blocks, with four adjustments (which you should see if you squint a bit) to get whole numbers.

[tiberius]

Sept 19, 2018 15:13:39 GMT colm said:

Ireland in this scenario would probably have their own parties that contest only in Ireland but perhaps have a loose alliance/partnership with the main GB parties. I am not sure if there would be a formal alliance like the CDU/CSU in Germany and Bavaria as I think the Irish parties would prefer more of a confidence and supply approach. Any alliance/partnership could potentially be stronger in NI.

So based off this, I guess keep the scheme I set, but ditch formal associations in favor of de facto ones?

[tiberius]

These are the subunits I would use.

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

Those council areas are nowhere near balanced in terms of electorate. The Rathgar-Rathmines LEA does not have the same population as the Manorhamilton LEA unless a neutron bomb has dropped in South East Dublin without something informing me (they are pretty enclosed there, so perhaps it has idk).

[tiberius]

Sept 19, 2018 18:25:21 GMT jamie said:

There's also the problem that 3 seats is the absolute minimum you need for proportionality, and you would want 4-7 for most seats. Anything less than that and you only end up with the big 2 (if that) in the vast majority of areas.

What I was aiming for was a preferential system emulating the spirit of Australia's, only using a mix of multi-member districts and single-member as opposed to just single-member. A "big two"-friendly version of STV, if one could put it that way.

[tiberius]

Sept 27, 2018 19:22:37 GMT Ghyl Tarvoke said:

Those council areas are nowhere near balanced in terms of electorate. The Rathgar-Rathmines LEA does not have the same population as the Manorhamilton LEA unless a neutron bomb has dropped in South East Dublin without something informing me (they are pretty enclosed there, so perhaps it has idk).

Know any good sources for the populations of each of these municipal districts?

[irish observer]

www.boundarycommittee.ie/

If you want to do this exercise the above link was the Boundary Commission for the new municipal districts which will be in use in May in the locals. The document is very informative and you can see the populations now as against 2014 etc.

[therealriga]

There is a more detailed breakdown of electoral divisions for County Dublin here

www.citypopulation.de/php/ireland-dublin.php


Edit: Table 3 at this link has a spreadsheet with the figures for all the electoral divisions in 2016 www.cso.ie/en/census/census2016reports/census2016smallareapopulationstatistics/