nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,373
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YouGov
Sept 29, 2022 18:48:30 GMT
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Sept 29, 2022 18:48:30 GMT
Even so, do you really think that your party can recover from this, even if this poll is a bit of an outlier? Yes I do Until the corpse has stopped twitching never ever write off the Tories
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 29, 2022 18:50:28 GMT
The question of course would be who would be the Jean Charest. Have to be a Welsh MP for complete comparison leading the barely even a rump... Scottish surely and David Mundell is the great survivor.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 29, 2022 18:51:30 GMT
On that map Sunak holds his seat and Truss loses hers. Yeah, I noticed that, I can imagine him allowing himself a small one of whatever he has instead of a decent brandy tonight on the basis of that map. You both noticed wrong. Truss would hold her seat
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Post by michaelarden on Sept 29, 2022 18:54:40 GMT
Yeah, I noticed that, I can imagine him allowing himself a small one of whatever he has instead of a decent brandy tonight on the basis of that map. You both noticed wrong. Truss would hold her seat Boo! Thought it was too good to be true...
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Post by therealriga on Sept 29, 2022 19:03:13 GMT
I suspect Labour would win Wimbledon on these figures! You cannot be serious, Man!
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 29, 2022 19:17:48 GMT
I suspect Labour would win Wimbledon on these figures! Still fancy Djokovic myself….
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,280
Member is Online
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Post by iain on Sept 29, 2022 19:18:49 GMT
YouGov has been way too sensitive to trends for a while now - they always see hugely exaggerated swings. See also their LD and Brexit Party scores last Parliament, hugely inflated Green scores and massive Tory leads earlier this Parliament, etc. That said, lol. I see this as YouGov being an honest pollster and not massaging results. Obviously this one is an outlier, but if you are an honest pollster you are going to get outliers, and you are also going to reflect febrile and temporary public moods. Ipsos-mori are generally honest too. I don’t trust Opinium or Comres at all. Maybe. I see it as them having a political panel which is too engaged.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,373
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YouGov
Sept 29, 2022 19:18:50 GMT
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Sept 29, 2022 19:18:50 GMT
I suspect Labour would win Wimbledon on these figures! Still fancy Djokovic myself…. BOOM
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Post by willpower3 on Sept 29, 2022 19:31:53 GMT
I suspect Labour would win Wimbledon on these figures! Still fancy Djokovic myself…. Can't fault that prediction, but I don't want to go over the line with these puns.
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Post by woollyliberal on Sept 29, 2022 19:43:33 GMT
Useful thread by Anthony Wells about the current poll
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,660
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 29, 2022 19:49:42 GMT
If Labour polled anything close to this (they won't) they would have far more than 22 seats in Scotland.
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YouGov
Sept 29, 2022 20:22:32 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Sept 29, 2022 20:22:32 GMT
Yeah, I noticed that, I can imagine him allowing himself a small one of whatever he has instead of a decent brandy tonight on the basis of that map. You both noticed wrong. Truss would hold her seat So she would. I've accidentally annexed a chunk of Norfolk to Cambridgeshire in my head.
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Post by connor on Sept 29, 2022 21:01:57 GMT
Its a beautiful day watching the tories fall off the cliff to potential electoral oblivion.
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YouGov
Sept 29, 2022 21:52:43 GMT
Post by batman on Sept 29, 2022 21:52:43 GMT
One other weird & wonderful fact about this poll : this poll shows a swing of 9.5% from the Tories to the Lib Dems despite the fact that the latter only have 7% of the vote!
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,026
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Post by jamie on Sept 29, 2022 21:59:26 GMT
Just noticed in the cross tabs that the Tories are on 3% among 18-24 year olds. Has a poll ever found them this low?
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swanarcadian
Conservative & Unionist
Posts: 2,431
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Post by swanarcadian on Sept 29, 2022 22:05:26 GMT
Well I’ve never understood why polls are run in the middle of the party conference season, before all main parties have had a chance to hold their conferences.
But I realise we can’t stay in power for ever. No one can. It’s not all it’s cracked up to be anyway. You have the temporary euphoria of an election win, but after that you’re either lagging behind or watching your back when you’re ahead. 14 years isn’t a bad innings, even if half of them will have been spent either in coalition or a minority.
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YouGov
Sept 29, 2022 22:08:32 GMT
Post by stb12 on Sept 29, 2022 22:08:32 GMT
Well I’ve never understood why polls are run in the middle of the party conference season, before all main parties have had a chance to hold their conferences. But I realise we can’t stay in power for ever. No one can. It’s not all it’s cracked up to be anyway. You have the temporary euphoria of an election win, but after that you’re either lagging behind or watching your back when you’re ahead. 14 years isn’t a bad innings, even if half of them will have been spent either in coalition or a minority. Seems like it's going to be an awfully humiliating way to go down though
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Post by michaelarden on Sept 29, 2022 22:28:48 GMT
If Labour polled anything close to this (they won't) they would have far more than 22 seats in Scotland. Except the SNP are polling 5% - which must be the equivalent of approaching 60% in Scotland (subsample excepted).
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,660
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 29, 2022 22:38:40 GMT
If Labour polled anything close to this (they won't) they would have far more than 22 seats in Scotland. Except the SNP are polling 5% - which must be the equivalent of approaching 60% in Scotland (subsample excepted). The SNP have never got anywhere near 60% of the vote in Scotland. We need to look at subsamples (famously weird), and to recognise that people without a vote in Scotland often choose SNP in polls.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Sept 30, 2022 2:29:32 GMT
If Labour polled anything close to this (they won't) they would have far more than 22 seats in Scotland. Except the SNP are polling 5% - which must be the equivalent of approaching 60% in Scotland (subsample excepted). The Scottish sub-sample was: SNP 44, Lab 38, Con 10, Grn 4, LDm 2, RUK 1, Oth 1. Obviously you can’t infer too much from a sub-sample and we’d need a full scale Scotland poll to know what impact the recent events may have had on Scottish voting intentions. I cannot see the Lib Dems being as low as 2% in a full scale poll, while the Tories may hold on more of their vote due to the unionist factor.
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