msc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 908
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Post by msc on Sept 29, 2022 17:26:51 GMT
It does bother me that this is what it took to break the Tory Party As several of us have put it, bad press and scandals rarely linger, it's the economy that kills governments.
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,116
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Post by r34t on Sept 29, 2022 17:29:51 GMT
It does bother me that this is what it took to break the Tory Party As several of us have put it, bad press and scandals rarely linger, it's the economy that kills governments. But if we are getting echoes from the 1990s then it's both together really turns public opinion. You can sometimes get away with being dodgy or crap, but you can't get away with being both.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 29, 2022 17:31:29 GMT
So it turns out that rather than the new Thatch, Truss is the new Kim Campbell. Oh well at least we get an opening for a Reform party..
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European Lefty
Top Poster
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 6,063
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Post by European Lefty on Sept 29, 2022 17:35:03 GMT
Even if we all know it won't happen in an election but, to state the obvious, the fact that we managed to get to a situation where a poll like that was possible is pretty dire for the Tories
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 29, 2022 17:39:59 GMT
Even if we all know it won't happen in an election but, to state the obvious, the fact that we managed to get to a situation where a poll like that was possible is pretty dire for the Tories poll tax vibes
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,116
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Post by r34t on Sept 29, 2022 17:42:56 GMT
Even if we all know it won't happen in an election but, to state the obvious, the fact that we managed to get to a situation where a poll like that was possible is pretty dire for the Tories poll tax vibes Well, the poll tax was followed by the 1992 election. That involved the Tories getting rid of an unpopular female leader .....
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Post by batman on Sept 29, 2022 17:45:24 GMT
We're now totally within 1997 territory. It's not going to happen dok so calm your wet dream. Even so, do you really think that your party can recover from this, even if this poll is a bit of an outlier?
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Post by batman on Sept 29, 2022 17:46:18 GMT
I suspect Labour would win Wimbledon on these figures! on this occasion, you are undoubtedly right.
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YouGov
Sept 29, 2022 17:47:55 GMT
via mobile
r34t likes this
Post by mattbewilson on Sept 29, 2022 17:47:55 GMT
Well, the poll tax was followed by the 1992 election. That involved the Tories getting rid of an unpopular female leader ..... the similarities get starker by the moment
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Post by batman on Sept 29, 2022 17:49:37 GMT
+9? That's quite a jump. I wonder if it is over inflated at the expense of the Lib Dems and the Greens? YouGov has been way too sensitive to trends for a while now - they always see hugely exaggerated swings. See also their LD and Brexit Party scores last Parliament, hugely inflated Green scores and massive Tory leads earlier this Parliament, etc. That said, lol. that's the quality that up to now I've most readily associated with Ipsos-MORI. But you are right. Nevertheless, I think it's reasonable to conclude that Labour is winning, and winning pretty heavily at the moment.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Sept 29, 2022 17:55:52 GMT
It's not going to happen dok so calm your wet dream. Even so, do you really think that your party can recover from this, even if this poll is a bit of an outlier? Yes I do
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 963
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YouGov
Sept 29, 2022 18:09:06 GMT
Post by nyx on Sept 29, 2022 18:09:06 GMT
It's just a bit of fun of cours Oh those MFs beat me to it.. We differ on a few I see I don’t see how Labour could possibly gain Chesham and Amersham, Tiverton and Honiton, or North Shropshire from the Lib Dems. Tactical voting exists.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Sept 29, 2022 18:12:06 GMT
Even so, do you really think that your party can recover from this, even if this poll is a bit of an outlier? Yes I do
Non as blind as those who will not see.
Face reality, you've lost the swing voters.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 29, 2022 18:12:12 GMT
It's just a bit of fun of cours Oh those MFs beat me to it.. We differ on a few I see I don’t see how Labour could possibly gain Chesham and Amersham, Tiverton and Honiton, or North Shropshire from the Lib Dems. Tactical voting exists. It doesn't exist when it comes to UNS based on the previous general election result (except for that which was already present), nor do intervening by-election results. Don't overanalyse..
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bigfatron
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,890
Member is Online
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Post by bigfatron on Sept 29, 2022 18:15:14 GMT
+9? That's quite a jump. I wonder if it is over inflated at the expense of the Lib Dems and the Greens? YouGov always run the Lib Dems extremely low, although usually the Greens are at the high end of their range in Yougov polls. Until the last two polls their Lab/Tory margin has been fairly middle of the road, but the last one was 17% where other polls were showing 13&, and this one is just a bit doolally. A good Labour conference may have helped...
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Post by John Chanin on Sept 29, 2022 18:30:41 GMT
+9? That's quite a jump. I wonder if it is over inflated at the expense of the Lib Dems and the Greens? YouGov has been way too sensitive to trends for a while now - they always see hugely exaggerated swings. See also their LD and Brexit Party scores last Parliament, hugely inflated Green scores and massive Tory leads earlier this Parliament, etc. That said, lol. I see this as YouGov being an honest pollster and not massaging results. Obviously this one is an outlier, but if you are an honest pollster you are going to get outliers, and you are also going to reflect febrile and temporary public moods. Ipsos-mori are generally honest too. I don’t trust Opinium or Comres at all.
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Post by michaelarden on Sept 29, 2022 18:36:52 GMT
On that map Sunak holds his seat and Truss loses hers.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,897
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Post by Khunanup on Sept 29, 2022 18:40:47 GMT
So it turns out that rather than the new Thatch, Truss is the new Kim Campbell. Oh well at least we get an opening for a Reform party.. Now that would be fun!
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,897
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Post by Khunanup on Sept 29, 2022 18:44:20 GMT
So it turns out that rather than the new Thatch, Truss is the new Kim Campbell. Oh well at least we get an opening for a Reform party.. Now that would be fun! The question of course would be who would be the Jean Charest. Have to be a Welsh MP for complete comparison leading the barely even a rump...
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Sept 29, 2022 18:47:20 GMT
On that map Sunak holds his seat and Truss loses hers. Yeah, I noticed that, I can imagine him allowing himself a small one of whatever he has instead of a decent brandy tonight on the basis of that map.
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