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Post by Strontium Dog on Sept 29, 2022 16:47:31 GMT
One the one hand, the idea of a 33 point lead is objectively ridiculous. On the other hand, it's really a wonder anyone can find 21% of people still prepared to vote for these clowns.
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Post by stb12 on Sept 29, 2022 16:47:41 GMT
Much as I know that poll won't happen it makes me more confident in my prediction that Labour will win a majority
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2022 16:48:38 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2022 16:49:47 GMT
We're now totally within 1997 territory. It's not going to happen dok so calm your wet dream. Can you truly say that, after 12 years at the moment, 14 years by the next election, that the Conservatives are in any fit state to even win a *lead* let alone a majority?
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YouGov
Sept 29, 2022 16:50:54 GMT
via mobile
Post by jollyroger93 on Sept 29, 2022 16:50:54 GMT
It's not going to happen dok so calm your wet dream. Can you truly say that, after 12 years at the moment, 14 years by the next election, that the Conservatives are in any fit state to even win a *lead* let alone a majority? Yes.
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YouGov
Sept 29, 2022 16:51:49 GMT
via mobile
Post by afleitch on Sept 29, 2022 16:51:49 GMT
Good
Let it die.
The key issue here is not the Tory share, but Labour share.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2022 16:55:00 GMT
Can you truly say that, after 12 years at the moment, 14 years by the next election, that the Conservatives are in any fit state to even win a *lead* let alone a majority? Yes. Then I will happily have whatever you're smoking.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Sept 29, 2022 16:55:58 GMT
+9? That's quite a jump. I wonder if it is over inflated at the expense of the Lib Dems and the Greens? YouGov has been way too sensitive to trends for a while now - they always see hugely exaggerated swings. See also their LD and Brexit Party scores last Parliament, hugely inflated Green scores and massive Tory leads earlier this Parliament, etc. That said, lol.
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YouGov
Sept 29, 2022 16:57:57 GMT
via mobile
graham likes this
Post by mattbewilson on Sept 29, 2022 16:57:57 GMT
We're now totally within 1997 territory. this way beyond 1997 territory
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graham
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Post by graham on Sept 29, 2022 16:58:31 GMT
I suspect Labour would win Wimbledon on these figures!
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YouGov
Sept 29, 2022 16:58:33 GMT
via mobile
Post by mattbewilson on Sept 29, 2022 16:58:33 GMT
Much as I know that poll won't happen it makes me more confident in my prediction that Labour will win a majority Michael Foot was polling 60% at one point
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Post by John Chanin on Sept 29, 2022 17:01:53 GMT
Obviously these poll results are a response to a total public relations disaster for the Conservative government, combined with a rare moment when the media pay attention to Labour, and Labour have not dropped the ball as they often do. Opinion may swing back to something more normal by November (although the energy price rises and mortgage rises are still to come). They definitely will do by next summer, but it is probably too late now to prevent a Labour lead persisting until the next election.
Re mortgages by the way - the fact that most people these days have short term fixed rate deals means that the pain is going to be spread out over the next two years - it’s not just a one-off people will have to adapt to.
I suspect the huge age gradient we have seen develop over the last 15 years is going to get even worse, as you can bet there won’t be any measures reducing the incomes of the retired, and they are not affected by mortgage payments.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Sept 29, 2022 17:06:47 GMT
Well, at least we know what date the next election will be.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 29, 2022 17:09:11 GMT
It's just a bit of fun of course.. Oh those MFs beat me to it.. We differ on a few I see
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Sept 29, 2022 17:15:14 GMT
Pish. Any half decent leader would be 40% ahead.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 29, 2022 17:19:22 GMT
You have to laugh, really.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Sept 29, 2022 17:21:22 GMT
We can all apply a fair degree of salt but
(a) Well before recent events the Tories were regularly polling c. 30-33% with Lab/LD/Greens on c 60% combined
(b) A lot of that was before some of the cost-of-living implications had sunk in i.e. not so much a response to economics as to general disillusionment that had set in under Johnson*
(c) Since then the economic situation was looking bad and Truss and Kwarteng have made themselves look unfit for office. (Frankly a lot of the rest of the cabinet are worse.)
(d) Conversely Starmer has had a good week and no-one is going round saying that being boring is a bad thing any more. I suspect that from now on he will be seen as PM in waiting and maintain a substantial lead in "best PM" polling, there are times when the public makes up it's mind about a leader (often unfairly) and I feel that's happened for both him and Truss this week.
(e) Things could get a lot worse. The OBR could lob a hand-grenade, announcements of spending cuts could lead to a rebellion. In fact I think they will because the only approach that makes any sense to me is severe shrinking of the state ("unpopular things to produce growth") in line with Britannia Unchained. That in turn means chucking the Red Wall MPs under the bus and hoping to win in the places that Thatcher won (flawed strategy IMO but at least it is one). Given that most MPs voted Sunak anyway, if a lot of them think she's lined them up as a sacrifice they have nothing either ideologically or personally to lose in defending state spending in their constituences.
(f) Most of the defence of Truss coming out from Tory sources is tone deaf
Add it up and I don't think a result on these lines can be ruled out
* Who will, btw, pretend for the rest of his life that the Tories were doing pretty well until Liz Truss wrecked it all.
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 29, 2022 17:22:46 GMT
It does bother me that this is what it took to break the Tory Party
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Post by willpower3 on Sept 29, 2022 17:23:49 GMT
Anyone have passwords for the Tory parliamentary WhatsApp groups?
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r34t
Non-Aligned
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Post by r34t on Sept 29, 2022 17:25:05 GMT
Anyone have passwords for the Tory parliamentary WhatsApp groups? Don't bother. They've melted.
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