|
Post by threecrowns on Sept 28, 2022 12:20:22 GMT
Somebody on this board (apologies, I can't remember who), once said that if it genuinely looks as though Labour are in a position to win a GE 10-20 seats in the Central Belt will fall to them. If it doesn't look that way, they won't. I think it is a fair assessment.
|
|
|
YouGov
Sept 28, 2022 12:48:11 GMT
via mobile
Post by afleitch on Sept 28, 2022 12:48:11 GMT
I think if it's clear to voters that Labour can win a majority without Scotland, if the polling remains this robust, post 2011/2015 SNP pick ups are not going to vote Labour.
I think if it's clear that Labour are going to be the largest party and need SNP support, regardless of what Labour say about 'deals' those voters are certainly not going to vote Labour.
They will pick up the soft 'granny' votes from those who've had a brief Tory dalliance, but that's only going to give them a shout in the seats they won in 2017.
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,283
|
Post by iain on Sept 28, 2022 12:56:08 GMT
I think if it's clear to voters that Labour can win a majority without Scotland, if the polling remains this robust, post 2011/2015 SNP pick ups are not going to vote Labour. I think if it's clear that Labour are going to be the largest party and need SNP support, regardless of what Labour say about 'deals' those voters are certainly not going to vote Labour. They will pick up the soft 'granny' votes from those who've had a brief Tory dalliance, but that's only going to give them a shout in the seats they won in 2017. Then why do you think the SNP struggled (relatively speaking) versus Labour in 2017? It wasn't down to them picking up Tory voters, as that election also saw the Conservatives' high water mark. Some of the pre-2015 strongest Labour seats in the central belt also had the highest 'yes' votes in Scotland, but still switched back to Labour in 2017. It may not be the most likely scenario, but I don't think Labour winning ~15-20 seats in Scotland is remotely unrealistic if they are winning a majority nationwide. And if Nicola Sturgeon runs a solely independence focused campaign in the midst of a cost of living crisis, as she has threatened to, then it could be more.
|
|
|
Post by Clark on Sept 28, 2022 14:00:01 GMT
It is remarkable how some seats can change - I think Hove has had a 36% swing to Labour from the Conservatives since 1979.
|
|
islington
Non-Aligned
Posts: 4,357
Member is Online
|
Post by islington on Sept 28, 2022 14:38:00 GMT
It is remarkable how some seats can change - I think Hove has had a 36% swing to Labour from the Conservatives since 1979. Well, quite. Or look at Mansfield in an opposite sense (although to be fair the Tories came close in the eighties).
This is why I don't agree when people complain that under FPTP their vote doesn't count because they live in a safe seat. My answer is that there's really no such thing as a safe seat: while there are, of course, seats that are won by very large majorities, this is only because electors in that area have chosen accordingly (as they have every right to do) and there is no guarantee at all that a similar result will be repeated in future elections.
Look at my brother: a Labour man through and through, back in the 1990s he relocated from London to the east Midlands for work reasons and ended up finding himself a house in the Bolsover seat. He actually remarked to me that it was good to think that he'd always have the benefit of a Labour MP. But now, whenever we speak, he has to endure my invariable opening gambit, which is to ask him how things are in the leafy Tory shires. (He has displayed great fortitude and good humour in response to this continually-repeated gibe.)
|
|
islington
Non-Aligned
Posts: 4,357
Member is Online
|
Post by islington on Sept 28, 2022 14:43:13 GMT
I am getting increasingly bored with political commentators on TV and radio ststing that Labour wouldn't have won a majority without Scottish seats in 1997 and 2001; yes, as we know on here, they would. Although the kind of swing the polls are showing right now are likely to gain seats for Labour in Scotland. Equally disingenuous is the Iain Dale claim that, without the north Medway seats, Labour cannot win a majority. Putting aside the likely large swings to Labour (post-Brexit Leave/Remain posturing) in these seats, Labour is now targeting seats in London, Worthing, Bournemouth, Cornwall, et al, that it hasn't held before (or for a long time), that weren't on the horizon in 1997-2005. Also, When Labour had Sittingbourne & Sheppey, it didn't hold Canterbury down the road. Times have changed. If we are looking at a generational shift against the Tories (as it is beginning to feel), I wouldn't be surprised to see unexpected gains as we saw in 1997, though I cannot see a similar landslide next time. I agree. If Labour at the next GE have a lead of 17% or anything like it, they needn't worry about their majority. The seats will come from somewhere, including almost certainly some that have never been seriously thought of as Labour prospects at all.
(Of course I acknowledge that the word 'if' is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that paragraph.)
|
|
|
Post by mattbewilson on Sept 28, 2022 15:14:46 GMT
It is remarkable how some seats can change - I think Hove has had a 36% swing to Labour from the Conservatives since 1979. Well, quite. Or look at Mansfield in an opposite sense (although to be fair the Tories came close in the eighties).
This is why I don't agree when people complain that under FPTP their vote doesn't count because they live in a safe seat. My answer is that there's really no such thing as a safe seat: while there are, of course, seats that are won by very large majorities, this is only because electors in that area have chosen accordingly (as they have every right to do) and there is no guarantee at all that a similar result will be repeated in future elections.
Look at my brother: a Labour man through and through, back in the 1990s he relocated from London to the east Midlands for work reasons and ended up finding himself a house in the Bolsover seat. He actually remarked to me that it was good to think that he'd always have the benefit of a Labour MP. But now, whenever we speak, he has to endure my invariable opening gambit, which is to ask him how things are in the leafy Tory shires. (He has displayed great fortitude and good humour in response to this continually-repeated gibe.)
though tends to be because of complacency that 'safe' seats become marginal.
|
|
batman
Labour
Posts: 11,786
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on Sept 28, 2022 22:48:41 GMT
Somebody on this board (apologies, I can't remember who), once said that if it genuinely looks as though Labour are in a position to win a GE 10-20 seats in the Central Belt will fall to them. If it doesn't look that way, they won't. I think it is a fair assessment. I said something like that, but I don't think I'm the only one.
|
|
|
Post by michaelarden on Sept 29, 2022 10:10:45 GMT
I think if it's clear to voters that Labour can win a majority without Scotland, if the polling remains this robust, post 2011/2015 SNP pick ups are not going to vote Labour. I think if it's clear that Labour are going to be the largest party and need SNP support, regardless of what Labour say about 'deals' those voters are certainly not going to vote Labour. They will pick up the soft 'granny' votes from those who've had a brief Tory dalliance, but that's only going to give them a shout in the seats they won in 2017. Then why do you think the SNP struggled (relatively speaking) versus Labour in 2017? It wasn't down to them picking up Tory voters, as that election also saw the Conservatives' high water mark. Some of the pre-2015 strongest Labour seats in the central belt also had the highest 'yes' votes in Scotland, but still switched back to Labour in 2017. It may not be the most likely scenario, but I don't think Labour winning ~15-20 seats in Scotland is remotely unrealistic if they are winning a majority nationwide. And if Nicola Sturgeon runs a solely independence focused campaign in the midst of a cost of living crisis, as she has threatened to, then it could be more. Labour in 2017 sent out mixed messages on independence. Under Starmer they are clearly the left branch office of the unionist franchise. Their 15th most winnable SNP seat is Glasgow South with a 9000 majority. They would also have to win Na h-Eileanan an Iar and 6 out of 8 Glasgow seats (or if not win even less marginal seats) to get to 15. Talk of double figure gains is nonsensical in my view - Labour would be happy with 5 or 6 and become the second largest Scottish party in Westminster under a Starmer majority of a dozen or two.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,400
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Sept 29, 2022 10:26:23 GMT
Maybe people should look at the 2017 SNP majorities instead if you want to assess potential winnability of Scottish targets for Labour.
(especially if the reports the Nats intend to pretty much rerun that year's campaign are correct)
|
|
msc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 908
|
YouGov
Sept 29, 2022 15:33:43 GMT
Post by msc on Sept 29, 2022 15:33:43 GMT
Maybe people should look at the 2017 SNP majorities instead if you want to assess potential winnability of Scottish targets for Labour. (especially if the reports the Nats intend to pretty much rerun that year's campaign are correct) There are some local seats that were considered at considerable risk should Labour ever get their act together. A look at the 2017 results in and around Glasgow gives you a reasonable idea of which ones. My sources are elected SNP politicians!
|
|
msc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 908
|
Post by msc on Sept 29, 2022 16:30:56 GMT
I..I...I..
HOLY SHIT!
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Sept 29, 2022 16:31:00 GMT
|
|
|
Post by woollyliberal on Sept 29, 2022 16:34:43 GMT
+9? That's quite a jump. I wonder if it is over inflated at the expense of the Lib Dems and the Greens?
|
|
|
Post by jollyroger93 on Sept 29, 2022 16:36:48 GMT
+9? That's quite a jump. I wonder if it is over inflated at the expense of the Lib Dems and the Greens? Small print suggests that. But either way that's a fair old swing of 7% from the last poll likely an outer but the blues are heading for opinion polling not seen since the 1990s.
|
|
r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,116
|
YouGov
Sept 29, 2022 16:38:40 GMT
Post by r34t on Sept 29, 2022 16:38:40 GMT
I don't believe it tba - probably about 10% out I wish I was a fly on the wall in Birmingham in a few days ...
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,027
|
Post by jamie on Sept 29, 2022 16:42:01 GMT
What the actual fuck
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Sept 29, 2022 16:42:21 GMT
+9? That's quite a jump. I wonder if it is over inflated at the expense of the Lib Dems and the Greens? Small print suggests that. But either way that's a fair old swing of 7% from the last poll likely an outer but the blues are heading for opinion polling not seen since the 1990s. Worse than the 1990s. That poll represents a 22% swing from Conservative to Labour-if replicated in a general election that would knock the Conservatives' seat total into double figures (they would hold just 40 seats on those polling figures).
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
YouGov
Sept 29, 2022 16:44:33 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2022 16:44:33 GMT
We're now totally within 1997 territory.
|
|
|
YouGov
Sept 29, 2022 16:45:51 GMT
via mobile
Post by jollyroger93 on Sept 29, 2022 16:45:51 GMT
We're now totally within 1997 territory. It's not going to happen dok so calm your wet dream.
|
|