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Post by bigfatron on Sept 28, 2022 8:23:44 GMT
I suspect there might be quite a strong 'throw the bums out' feeling which will impel otherwise Lib Dem voters in some seats to Labour and otherwise Labour voters in a smaller sub-set of seats to the Lib Dems...
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Sept 28, 2022 8:25:03 GMT
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Post by willpower3 on Sept 28, 2022 8:25:03 GMT
logically, Plymouth Moor View is much likelier to fall, especially if Johnny Mercer quits. I don't see Labour winning Central Devon in a general election. The only thing Mercer has going for him is his looks.
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Sept 28, 2022 8:41:18 GMT
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Post by bjornhattan on Sept 28, 2022 8:41:18 GMT
A few months back I did some analysis based on census and election data. I found that Plymouth Moor View is one of the constituencies with the biggest difference between expected election result based on demographics (which suggest it should be marginal or even Labour leaning) and the actual 2019 election result. I don't know whether that's down to cultural factors, Mercer, or neither, but it does suggest Labour should be able to do a lot better there than they are now. There may be a military influence which often skews a constituency to the right as RW pointed out in the Almanac of British Politics. Considering Portsmouth North had a very similar divergence, you are probably right.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 28, 2022 9:41:49 GMT
I am getting increasingly bored with political commentators on TV and radio stating that Labour wouldn't have won a majority without Scottish seats in 1997 and 2001; yes, as we know on here, they would. Although the kind of swing the polls are showing right now are likely to gain seats for Labour in Scotland. Equally disingenuous is the Iain Dale claim that, without the north Medway seats, Labour cannot win a majority. Putting aside the likely large swings to Labour (post-Brexit Leave/Remain posturing) in these seats, Labour is now targeting seats in London, Worthing, Bournemouth, Cornwall, et al, that it hasn't held before (or for a long time), that weren't on the horizon in 1997-2005. Also, When Labour had Sittingbourne & Sheppey, it didn't hold Canterbury down the road. Times have changed. If we are looking at a generational shift against the Tories (as it is beginning to feel), I wouldn't be surprised to see unexpected gains as we saw in 1997, though I cannot see a similar landslide next time.
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msc
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Post by msc on Sept 28, 2022 10:06:46 GMT
To put it bluntly, if Labour did win a landslide like some of these polls suggested, they would not only have one Scottish MP. At all.
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Sept 28, 2022 10:12:14 GMT
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 28, 2022 10:12:14 GMT
I am getting increasingly bored with political commentators on TV and radio ststing that Labour wouldn't have won a majority without Scottish seats in 1997 and 2001; yes, as we know on here, they would. Although the kind of swing the polls are showing right now are likely to gain seats for Labour in Scotland. Equally disingenuous is the Iain Dale claim that, without the north Medway seats, Labour cannot win a majority. Putting aside the likely large swings to Labour (post-Brexit Leave/Remain posturing) in these seats, Labour is now targeting seats in London, Worthing, Bournemouth, Cornwall, et al, that it hasn't held before (or for a long time), that weren't on the horizon in 1997-2005. Also, When Labour had Sittingbourne & Sheppey, it didn't hold Canterbury down the road. Times have changed. If we are looking at a generational shift against the Tories (as it is beginning to feel), I wouldn't be surprised to see unexpected gains as we saw in 1997, though I cannot see a similar landslide next time. tbf the majority would significantly have been smaller. Less than a 100? Still a sizable majority tbf. At the moment I guess we'll win some seats in Scotland but not the level we had previously. The 1997 Kent seats were labour moving toward those voters whereas the seats on South coast we could gain next time are moving toward us rather than us moving to them
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 28, 2022 10:20:16 GMT
The concentration of votes means it's harder for a party whose voters are mostly in urban towns and cities to gain seats than it is for a party whose voters are in more rural villages and towns. Democrats in America will increasingly find that the lead needed for a majority in the electoral college gets larger and larger
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The Bishop
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Sept 28, 2022 10:22:50 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Sept 28, 2022 10:22:50 GMT
We are overall a more urban country than the US, though.
(and even there, I think the recent map is about as skewed against the Dems as it is going to get)
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 28, 2022 10:24:15 GMT
tbf the majority would significantly have been smaller. Less than a 100? Still a sizable majority tbf. At the moment I guess we'll win some seats in Scotland but not the level we had previously. In ‘97 the majority was 179 including 56 seats in Scotland and in ‘01 it was 167 still with 56 Scottish seats.
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Post by bigfatron on Sept 28, 2022 10:28:30 GMT
Bear in mind Labour are forecast on these numbers and ONS to win Croydon South - this is leafy Purley and Coulsdon, classic commuter territory and well out of reach even in 1997. You could feasibly see the Tories almost wiped out in suburbia in a way that didn't happen in 1997, which compensates in part for the loss of ex-industrial towns like Dudley or Gillingham.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 28, 2022 10:32:02 GMT
And lets be clear too - with anything like a 17 point lead Labour *would* win Dudley North back, maybe even a few places like Cannock as well.
There are certain seats where the Tory result last time will go down in history as a never to be repeated freak.
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Khunanup
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Sept 28, 2022 10:57:59 GMT
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Post by Khunanup on Sept 28, 2022 10:57:59 GMT
There may be a military influence which often skews a constituency to the right as RW pointed out in the Almanac of British Politics. Considering Portsmouth North had a very similar divergence, you are probably right. No, I don't think the military influence had much impact on Portsmouth North at all. Portsmouth South is a far more 'militarised' seat and that went in the opposite direction. Portsmouth North and South are diverging demographically in opposite directions which shows in their election results with the military vote having little impact on those patterns.
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 28, 2022 11:09:53 GMT
tbf the majority would significantly have been smaller. Less than a 100? Still a sizable majority tbf. At the moment I guess we'll win some seats in Scotland but not the level we had previously. In ‘97 the majority was 179 including 56 seats in Scotland and in ‘01 it was 167 still with 56 Scottish seats. I might be being daft but if you remove your seats and put them in the opposition benches you have to remove the seats from your majority twice so it's 56 from the labour total but 112 from the labour majority
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 28, 2022 11:10:54 GMT
And lets be clear too - with anything like a 17 point lead Labour *would* win Dudley North back, maybe even a few places like Cannock as well. There are certain seats where the Tory result last time will go down in history as a never to be repeated freak. tho 17 point lead in an election is unlikely
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nodealbrexiteer
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Sept 28, 2022 11:12:16 GMT
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Sept 28, 2022 11:12:16 GMT
And lets be clear too - with anything like a 17 point lead Labour *would* win Dudley North back, maybe even a few places like Cannock as well. There are certain seats where the Tory result last time will go down in history as a never to be repeated freak. tho 17 point lead in an election is unlikely especially as highest post war GB lead was 15.2%
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 28, 2022 11:12:17 GMT
But as said above, any sort of Labour victory - never mind a landslide one - won't involve them still only winning Edinburgh South north of the border.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 28, 2022 11:14:43 GMT
But as said above, any sort of Labour victory - never mind a landslide one - won't involve them still only winning Edinburgh South north of the border. I think Sarwar is talking about a realistic aim of 13-14 seats
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 28, 2022 11:16:31 GMT
And lets be clear too - with anything like a 17 point lead Labour *would* win Dudley North back, maybe even a few places like Cannock as well. There are certain seats where the Tory result last time will go down in history as a never to be repeated freak. tho 17 point lead in an election is unlikely You don't say
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Sept 28, 2022 11:17:44 GMT
tho 17 point lead in an election is unlikely You don't say 16.9% maybe?
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Post by Clark on Sept 28, 2022 11:31:51 GMT
Labour did top the poll in some old heartland areas in the Scottish local elections this year - it will be interesting to see if they can repeat this at a Westminster election.
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